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Vard Holdings

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GorgeousOng
    10-May-2013 21:17  
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I sold my Ezion and re enter try to make back from this counter . 1.3 to 1.50 have to wait for a while. Happy to see old timer to invest in this counter. If not so..so boring ler!!!🙊
Good luck yah!

NoMoney      ( Date: 10-May-2013 20:44) Posted:



yeah i kill my hyflux and get this as this looks like got higher change to earn back my hyflux lost. alot of broker recommend this. Q at 1.03 but did not get then got it at 1.04 going to long this to 1.3-1.5 min

 

GorgeousOng      ( Date: 10-May-2013 18:01) Posted:

Sawadee kar! 5 5 5 now you also interested in this counter! I got out and in today again. Chok dee


 
 
shareflux
    10-May-2013 21:06  
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The Kiasu who picked up at 103 are amply rewarded. Even the kiasi also have something to take home. The share price need to break away from its range bound to have a sustainable rally. Hopefully the goodies in the results will push through...

shareflux      ( Date: 08-May-2013 00:31) Posted:

The share price seems to be moving side way and range bound. This has never happen before in VARD history as a listed company. It is always either up or down. The share price infers that there is much uncertainty out there which is reflected in the fundamental of the company and well reports by the houses.

There is always two approaches to play a stock. Higher risk approach to pick bone or a lower risk wait for a reversal formation of a set of lower high and higher high.

Risk rewards is part and parcel of investing. Higher risk higher reward or lower risk lower rewards... The choice is up to individual style and temperament.

I am the kiasi kiasu type. Kiasu i will lose out on the high reward so i will buy now. But kiasi of holding a falling knife I will put up a smaller order.



guoyanyunyan      ( Date: 07-May-2013 12:26) Posted:



Vard World’s Leading OSV Builder at 5x Ex-Cash P/E

Share price has declined 13% since the lapsed of the takeover offer from Fincantieri on 13 Mar. Following our conversation with management, we remain positive on the stock. We expect order book replenishment to be stronger than market expectations and believe the recent sell-down has more than priced-in the negative news of delays in Brazil and lower earnings. Re-iterate BUY with an unchanged TP of SGD1.82.
  • Takeaways from our recent conversation with management: i) new orders could surprise the market with strong demand for offshore subsea construction vessels (OSCVs) and possible return of anchor handling tug supply vessels (AHTS) orders, ii) delays in Brazil will weigh down on overall margins but this is nothing new as we have factored in lower margins, and iii) dividend policy maintained at 30% of net profit.
  • Strong order book to underpin yard utilisation for FY13. VARD ended FY12 with a net orderbook of NOK15.1bn. YTD 2013, the company added contracts for three OSCVs and one Azimuth Stern Drive tug and a Letter of Intent (LOI) for one platform supply vessel (PSV). We estimate the new orders lifted its net orderbook to ~NOK18.5bn.
  • Robust demand for OSCVs could add NOK3bn new orders in Brazil. New orders could surprise street estimates of NOK10-11bn. VARD is
    seeing strong enquiries for OSCVs. On top of that, Petrobras is planning to sign charters for up to seven flexible pipelay support vessels (PLSVs)
    and we believe VARD is well positioned to win at least one or two orders. We estimate the value of each PLSV to be ~USD260m (NOK1.5bn).
  • Weaker earnings in FY13 expected consensus may be too bullish. We estimate FY13-14F net profit to decline by 9% and 4% respectively
    on lower margins due to production weakness in Brazil and orders won under intense competition. Our estimates are 11-19% below consensus
  • Re-iterate BUY with an unchanged TP of SGD1.82. Our TP is based on 12x FY13F P/E. While earnings are set to decline on lower margins,
    valuation is attractive at 5.0x ex-cash FY13F P/E (net cash of SGD0.33). Net yield of 4.5% (SGD0.05/share) is attractive and sustainable.


 
 
NoMoney
    10-May-2013 20:44  
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yeah i kill my hyflux and get this as this looks like got higher change to earn back my hyflux lost. alot of broker recommend this. Q at 1.03 but did not get then got it at 1.04 going to long this to 1.3-1.5 min

 

GorgeousOng      ( Date: 10-May-2013 18:01) Posted:

Sawadee kar! 5 5 5 now you also interested in this counter! I got out and in today again. Chok dee!

NoMoney      ( Date: 10-May-2013 17:47) Posted:

lets huat ah.. Shorties must buy back so price going back up us normal. short term should see 1.20 unless poor results again.


 

 
GorgeousOng
    10-May-2013 18:01  
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Sawadee kar! 5 5 5 now you also interested in this counter! I got out and in today again. Chok dee!

NoMoney      ( Date: 10-May-2013 17:47) Posted:

lets huat ah.. Shorties must buy back so price going back up us normal. short term should see 1.20 unless poor results again.

 
 
NoMoney
    10-May-2013 17:47  
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lets huat ah.. Shorties must buy back so price going back up us normal. short term should see 1.20 unless poor results again.
 
 
blueskyblue
    10-May-2013 16:20  
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Could be market optimistic on the earning. Or it is overly undervalue now.

WanSiTong      ( Date: 10-May-2013 16:06) Posted:



Results out on 14 May

http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=f853114635eabc6cff8920e15& id=53f4217f09& e=eaacc94bad

yokoosi      ( Date: 09-May-2013 16:35) Posted:



Huat Ah!

Result coming


 

 
NoRiskNoGain
    10-May-2013 16:13  
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Any reason for the suuden surge ?Smiley

WanSiTong      ( Date: 10-May-2013 16:04) Posted:

$1.075 finally !! Huat Arrrrh !

 
 
WanSiTong
    10-May-2013 16:06  
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Results out on 14 May

http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=f853114635eabc6cff8920e15& id=53f4217f09& e=eaacc94bad

yokoosi      ( Date: 09-May-2013 16:35) Posted:



Huat Ah!

Result coming

 
 
WanSiTong
    10-May-2013 16:04  
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$1.075 finally !! Huat Arrrrh !
 
 
yokoosi
    09-May-2013 16:35  
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Huat Ah!

Result coming
 

 
shareflux
    08-May-2013 00:31  
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The share price seems to be moving side way and range bound. This has never happen before in VARD history as a listed company. It is always either up or down. The share price infers that there is much uncertainty out there which is reflected in the fundamental of the company and well reports by the houses.

There is always two approaches to play a stock. Higher risk approach to pick bone or a lower risk wait for a reversal formation of a set of lower high and higher high.

Risk rewards is part and parcel of investing. Higher risk higher reward or lower risk lower rewards... The choice is up to individual style and temperament.

I am the kiasi kiasu type. Kiasu i will lose out on the high reward so i will buy now. But kiasi of holding a falling knife I will put up a smaller order.



guoyanyunyan      ( Date: 07-May-2013 12:26) Posted:



Vard World’s Leading OSV Builder at 5x Ex-Cash P/E

Share price has declined 13% since the lapsed of the takeover offer from Fincantieri on 13 Mar. Following our conversation with management, we remain positive on the stock. We expect order book replenishment to be stronger than market expectations and believe the recent sell-down has more than priced-in the negative news of delays in Brazil and lower earnings. Re-iterate BUY with an unchanged TP of SGD1.82.
  • Takeaways from our recent conversation with management: i) new orders could surprise the market with strong demand for offshore subsea construction vessels (OSCVs) and possible return of anchor handling tug supply vessels (AHTS) orders, ii) delays in Brazil will weigh down on overall margins but this is nothing new as we have factored in lower margins, and iii) dividend policy maintained at 30% of net profit.
  • Strong order book to underpin yard utilisation for FY13. VARD ended FY12 with a net orderbook of NOK15.1bn. YTD 2013, the company added contracts for three OSCVs and one Azimuth Stern Drive tug and a Letter of Intent (LOI) for one platform supply vessel (PSV). We estimate the new orders lifted its net orderbook to ~NOK18.5bn.
  • Robust demand for OSCVs could add NOK3bn new orders in Brazil. New orders could surprise street estimates of NOK10-11bn. VARD is
    seeing strong enquiries for OSCVs. On top of that, Petrobras is planning to sign charters for up to seven flexible pipelay support vessels (PLSVs)
    and we believe VARD is well positioned to win at least one or two orders. We estimate the value of each PLSV to be ~USD260m (NOK1.5bn).
  • Weaker earnings in FY13 expected consensus may be too bullish. We estimate FY13-14F net profit to decline by 9% and 4% respectively
    on lower margins due to production weakness in Brazil and orders won under intense competition. Our estimates are 11-19% below consensus
  • Re-iterate BUY with an unchanged TP of SGD1.82. Our TP is based on 12x FY13F P/E. While earnings are set to decline on lower margins,
    valuation is attractive at 5.0x ex-cash FY13F P/E (net cash of SGD0.33). Net yield of 4.5% (SGD0.05/share) is attractive and sustainable.

 
 
invest888
    07-May-2013 21:20  
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Sinking....

guoyanyunyan      ( Date: 07-May-2013 12:26) Posted:



Vard World’s Leading OSV Builder at 5x Ex-Cash P/E

Share price has declined 13% since the lapsed of the takeover offer from Fincantieri on 13 Mar. Following our conversation with management, we remain positive on the stock. We expect order book replenishment to be stronger than market expectations and believe the recent sell-down has more than priced-in the negative news of delays in Brazil and lower earnings. Re-iterate BUY with an unchanged TP of SGD1.82.
  • Takeaways from our recent conversation with management: i) new orders could surprise the market with strong demand for offshore subsea construction vessels (OSCVs) and possible return of anchor handling tug supply vessels (AHTS) orders, ii) delays in Brazil will weigh down on overall margins but this is nothing new as we have factored in lower margins, and iii) dividend policy maintained at 30% of net profit.
  • Strong order book to underpin yard utilisation for FY13. VARD ended FY12 with a net orderbook of NOK15.1bn. YTD 2013, the company added contracts for three OSCVs and one Azimuth Stern Drive tug and a Letter of Intent (LOI) for one platform supply vessel (PSV). We estimate the new orders lifted its net orderbook to ~NOK18.5bn.
  • Robust demand for OSCVs could add NOK3bn new orders in Brazil. New orders could surprise street estimates of NOK10-11bn. VARD is
    seeing strong enquiries for OSCVs. On top of that, Petrobras is planning to sign charters for up to seven flexible pipelay support vessels (PLSVs)
    and we believe VARD is well positioned to win at least one or two orders. We estimate the value of each PLSV to be ~USD260m (NOK1.5bn).
  • Weaker earnings in FY13 expected consensus may be too bullish. We estimate FY13-14F net profit to decline by 9% and 4% respectively
    on lower margins due to production weakness in Brazil and orders won under intense competition. Our estimates are 11-19% below consensus
  • Re-iterate BUY with an unchanged TP of SGD1.82. Our TP is based on 12x FY13F P/E. While earnings are set to decline on lower margins,
    valuation is attractive at 5.0x ex-cash FY13F P/E (net cash of SGD0.33). Net yield of 4.5% (SGD0.05/share) is attractive and sustainable.

 
 
guoyanyunyan
    07-May-2013 12:26  
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Vard World’s Leading OSV Builder at 5x Ex-Cash P/E

Share price has declined 13% since the lapsed of the takeover offer from Fincantieri on 13 Mar. Following our conversation with management, we remain positive on the stock. We expect order book replenishment to be stronger than market expectations and believe the recent sell-down has more than priced-in the negative news of delays in Brazil and lower earnings. Re-iterate BUY with an unchanged TP of SGD1.82.
  • Takeaways from our recent conversation with management: i) new orders could surprise the market with strong demand for offshore subsea construction vessels (OSCVs) and possible return of anchor handling tug supply vessels (AHTS) orders, ii) delays in Brazil will weigh down on overall margins but this is nothing new as we have factored in lower margins, and iii) dividend policy maintained at 30% of net profit.
  • Strong order book to underpin yard utilisation for FY13. VARD ended FY12 with a net orderbook of NOK15.1bn. YTD 2013, the company added contracts for three OSCVs and one Azimuth Stern Drive tug and a Letter of Intent (LOI) for one platform supply vessel (PSV). We estimate the new orders lifted its net orderbook to ~NOK18.5bn.
  • Robust demand for OSCVs could add NOK3bn new orders in Brazil. New orders could surprise street estimates of NOK10-11bn. VARD is
    seeing strong enquiries for OSCVs. On top of that, Petrobras is planning to sign charters for up to seven flexible pipelay support vessels (PLSVs)
    and we believe VARD is well positioned to win at least one or two orders. We estimate the value of each PLSV to be ~USD260m (NOK1.5bn).
  • Weaker earnings in FY13 expected consensus may be too bullish. We estimate FY13-14F net profit to decline by 9% and 4% respectively
    on lower margins due to production weakness in Brazil and orders won under intense competition. Our estimates are 11-19% below consensus
  • Re-iterate BUY with an unchanged TP of SGD1.82. Our TP is based on 12x FY13F P/E. While earnings are set to decline on lower margins,
    valuation is attractive at 5.0x ex-cash FY13F P/E (net cash of SGD0.33). Net yield of 4.5% (SGD0.05/share) is attractive and sustainable.
 
 
TinyPotato
    07-May-2013 10:01  
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Nothing happening, No worries. Weak holders + contra players giving up only.  More importantly is  Q1 results on 14 May. Hope all tua huat !!
 
 
Whiteangel5922
    07-May-2013 09:55  
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What happen?!
 

 
zacaroo
    07-May-2013 09:53  
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what's happening again
 
 
ozone2002
    06-May-2013 10:56  
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still one of the better O& M stocks IMHO

cheaper price for good businesses  means it's on sale and at a discount..

gd luck dyodd
 
 
Aberdeen123
    06-May-2013 10:49  
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Mr Market will decide  its fate when the result is out.There is nothing to stop the price from falling further even the counter is already sold down.Likewise the price can maintain  its momentum  if it has ran up substantially.

MtFaber      ( Date: 06-May-2013 10:12) Posted:

The drop from 1.80 should have already discounted the bad news. So when they announce a set of bad result, the price should move up if the outlook from now on is better. As the saying goes, buy on rumors and sell on news if it had already ran up but in this case it should be opposite, ie sell on rumors (already sold down) and buy on news (if the outlook improves).

Aberdeen123      ( Date: 06-May-2013 09:40) Posted:

Sell at strength.Second wave of selling will start when the result is  a miss.


 
 
MtFaber
    06-May-2013 10:12  
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The drop from 1.80 should have already discounted the bad news. So when they announce a set of bad result, the price should move up if the outlook from now on is better. As the saying goes, buy on rumors and sell on news if it had already ran up but in this case it should be opposite, ie sell on rumors (already sold down) and buy on news (if the outlook improves).

Aberdeen123      ( Date: 06-May-2013 09:40) Posted:

Sell at strength.Second wave of selling will start when the result is  a miss.

 
 
Aberdeen123
    06-May-2013 10:08  
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Analysts’ target prices rarely accurate, global study  finds ...

Researchers at the University of Waterloo and Boston College said the credibility and usefulness of target prices has long been dubious, with media and investment managers frequently labelling target prices “as merely sales hype.”
Based on their 2012 study of more than 11,000 analysts from 41 countries, the overall accuracy of target prices is not very high, averaging around 18% for a three-month horizon and 30% for a 12-month horizon.

Understanding these general tendencies can help investors make better decisions,” Mr. Newman said.


 
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