
Right move for Shortists.......
COSCO and YZJ will be shorted down.....
COSCO wins 30K cargo ship | |
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COSCO inks Jackup Rig | |
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Cosco Singapore - Dalian Shipyard - Builder.
Dalian Deep Water Development - Shipowner.
Both Chinese company
wait4opp ( Date: 18-Oct-2013 09:16) Posted:
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Now short at High as 82 815
SHORT is better for now
UNDERPERFORM - Maintained | S$0.81 -
TP: S$0.46
Cosco Corporation   | PDF | |
One step forward, two steps back | |
COS SP / COSC.SI | UNDERPERFORM - Maintained | S$0.81 - TP: S$0.46 Mkt.Cap: US$1,462.00m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$1.61m | Free Float: 36.00% |
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Offshore & Marine | Author(s): Siew Khee LIM +65 6210 8664, | |
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▊ We doubt the simultaneous string of order wins announced by Cosco, amounting to US$400m, will mask the negative impact of the termination of a contract worth more than US$500m. Cosco?s only drillship order, due to be delivered in 3Q12, has been terminated by its owner, which is now seeking a US$110m refund. We keep our EPS estimates for now, pending more clarity regarding the arbitration and potential provision to be made. Maintain Underperform and target price based on 22x CY14 P/E (five-year mean). We see re-rating catalyst from consistent quarterly earnings. | |
  What Happened Cosco announced three contracts worth a total of about US$400m, with one cancellation of an order worth more than US$500m. The contracts it won are 1) the US$170m conversion of a semi-completed hull to a high-end floating accommodation unit due for delivery in 2015 2) a US$180m jack-up rig from an Asian owner for delivery in 3Q15 and 3) Rmb325m (US$53m) for a 30,000dwt cargo & training ship. The cancelled contract is a drillship awarded in Jul 2010 to convert the hull of a vessel originally built as part of a floating production drilling storage and offloading (FDPSO) unit for MPF Corp, which sought protection from bankruptcy in 2008. The drillship owner served Cosco Dalian a notice on 5 Aug 2013 to terminate the contract on the grounds of delay in the vessel?s delivery, although the construction is mostly complete. On 5 Sep, the owner claimed a refund for the first instalment (US$110m) and other advances paid. Cosco's without prejudice proposal to settle the matter was rejected on 7 Oct. Several potential buyers have expressed interest in buying the vessel.     What We Think YTD, the order win reached US$2.5bn. According to Riglogix, Odjfell is the drillshp?s owner and the vessel?s status is ?under inspection?. Cosco could sell the vessel for US$500m (vs. about US$600m built in Korea), but the sale may prove to be a loss as it could cost Cosco more than US$500m to complete the vessel. More modifications may be required to suit the new owner's requirements. Arbitration is likely to take long to reach a settlement and we expect any provision made in this regard to wipe out its FY13 or FY14 profits.     What You Should Do There is no reason to own the stock for now. |
COSCO's DP3 drillship axed | |
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Hawkeye ( Date: 17-Oct-2013 21:44) Posted:
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This DP3 Ultra Deep Drill ship is in house turn key by Cosco Dalian shipyard is one of its kind. Supposed to be delivered in Third Quarter 2012, to date is about one year delay.
Cost of construction  should be  absorbed in 2012 and 2013, no wonder their profit so bad. Now the drill ship is close to completion. A lot of companies including X-Drill is looking the fund to build a deep water drill ship as most of the oil is located in deep water now. So they should not have any problem getting buyers, only left the price of sale. By the time of abitration and court case, it will take at least 3 to 5 years and even 10 years to fight is the case is Buyers unable to pay the progress payment so builder had to delay the construction. So 110 million may take 5 to 10 years to return unless Cosco get a buyer to pay in full then Cosco may have to refund the whole or part of 110 million. Only thing now is what price the buyer willing to pay for this deep water drilling rig and what abitaration cost (is addition to Cosco cost) is but normally may be in the region of 10 to 20million (Lawyers should know).
Anyway Cosco target delivery for 2014 remain at 2.9billion and 2015 increase to 3.1billion and total order book should stand at 8.3billion by now.
Orders for Jackup Rig price of 180 million better than Yangzijiang price
Orders for Accomodation Unit at 170million looks cheap but taking in consideration of conversion of semi completed hull may offset.
samson ( Date: 17-Oct-2013 21:02) Posted:
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concurrently, subsequent to the receipt of the above notice of termination by COSCO Dalian,
" several potential buyers had expressed interest in the Vessel."
well GOLD 90.5FM only hear the good things :)
even if the contract is terminated, there are other potential buyers. how true? dont know time will tell
 
 
The vessel they stil can sell to others biyers
Fund managers will like to see the Cosco Q3 result profits
Tomorrow cosco may drop back to $0.78-$0.76
If you had hold power then not problem s
wait4opp ( Date: 17-Oct-2013 18:52) Posted:
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Gt contract terminated by one client and the ship is build halfway alr if cosco lose the case they will need to pay usd110m back and in the mean time who is going to continue to build the ship?lol
 
Just my view
 
赔 了 夫 人 又 着 兵 ! !
US $110 Millions Dollars to write off need how many contracts to earn back .....
No wander is so cheap and is the cheapest among three. Worst than YZJ and NOL.
Hopeless......
SELL even thot won two more contracts.......also cannot recover the LOSSES of US$110 MILLIONS..........
Target price 60cents.......and below
The Board wishes to announce that the Shipowner served a notice dated 5 August 2013 to
COSCO Dalian to terminate the Contract based on alleged grounds of delay in the delivery of the
Vessel, the construction of which is substantially completed. On 5 September 2013, the
Shipowner submitted a request for arbitration in London in which the Shipowner claimed for a
refund of the first instalment paid on the Contract amounting to US$110 million and other
advances paid by the Shipowner together with interest thereon, damages and interest thereon,
indemnity for future losses, further or other relief and costs. On 7 October 2013, the Shipowner
rejected COSCO Dalian?s without prejudice proposal to settle the matter.
COSCO Dalian has informed the Company that it has appointed legal advisers in London in
relation to the arbitration and is responding to the request for arbitration accordingly.
Concurrently, subsequent to the receipt of the above notice of termination by COSCO Dalian,
several potential buyers had expressed interest in the Vessel.
SAI KANG
GorgeousOng ( Date: 17-Oct-2013 18:11) Posted:
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