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Taking Mirach as an example, I have this to share.
1) Remember in the previous post I mentioned that the resistance for Mirach is 0.40, 0.45 and 0.52?. When I mentioned about resistance, what I mean is that the counter have to close above the resistance level at the end of the day. When Mirach crossed 0.40, it tested 0.45 which you can see on Friday that it tried to break. Finally it managed to break. When Mirach came down from 0.48 to 0.46-0.465, it is natural that people still hold on to it because of the previous trading pattern. Here is the important point. You will have to always keep in mind the resistance level. When it came down to below the resistance which for this case is 0.45, it will likely not close above the resistance price for the day and high chance it will drop the next day. I am referring to counter that chiong a lot up. So the safer decision to make when you encounter this is to SELL when the counter comes down below the resistance price which it has just break. I may have shared too late but this kind of situation is very common. It is good to know for your future trading.
2) In a situation like Mirach where the selling pressure is so great or when market sentiment is very poor, it is better to sell it before price matching time. This will likely save you 1-2 pips because high chance it will close day low. For Mirach’s case, it has risen so much and during the lao sai, it is natural that people will try to get out during the matching time as they worry more downs in the next trading session.
So what will happen to Mirach on Monday?. I will make a guess here. A few scenarios I can think of. There is a slight support at 0.36 and resistance will go back to 0.40.
1) As we know, there will tons of people waiting to short sell on Monday. I don’t think there is so easy money to make. I believe it may open gap down at 0.37 which is the open and close price for 2 trading days. They will push it down to support of 0.36 and then move up again to catch the shortist and lure peoples in. Shortist will then rush to cover and helps to move it to 0.40 or cross it by about 1-2 to pips. After which, it will comes down again to test 0.36 and break it.
2) It will open gap down at support price of 0.36 and move up, or maybe drop 1-2 pip down and then move up again to 0.40. After that. It will come down the same way as the above and break it.
3) It will open gap down at any price above 0.36 and touch the support. After that, move up again to test 0.40. Didn’t not manage to cross 0.40 resistance but able to maintain green at close. The next day lao sai again.
4) Open 1-2 pip higher and starts to move up to 0.40 or 1-2 pip above it. After that, it will go down to test 0.36 and rebound. The rebound is not real. It will go down again and break it.
5) Open gap down below 0.36. This is usually bye bye liao. But I don’t think this will happen because I don’t think BBs will let shortists make easy money.
6) Open gap down, touch 0.36 and then chiong up and close above 0.40.
I don’t think it will open at 0.385(same as close price in last trading).Taking into consideration 13.7 mil short sell on Friday, I personally don’t think it can close above 0.40 on Monday. I believe chances of either Scenario 1,2 & 4 will happen. If I still have Mirach, I will queue sell at 0.395-0.40 first early morning before market open. If it is expected to open at 0.36 or 0.37, I will not matched but give a cut off at 0.345.
Lai, make a guess! Which scenario do you think will happen?. Or any bro can think of any scenario different from the above.
Huat ah!
Stay safe guys. Dun take too much risks. Your life is more important than money.
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Stockcham ( Date: 13-Jul-2013 01:31) Posted:
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Stockcham ( Date: 13-Jul-2013 01:31) Posted:
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Bro Stockcham, I think Sinarmas is supporting well at 0.70, next week can fly? Halcyon also, sleeping well at 0.79/0.80... Interra res dead??? I'm still vested maybe have to jump ship... Sold Keruz too early, good run today.
Any advice bro?
I believe it's the BB who is offloading not shorting...
iluvboost ( Date: 13-Jul-2013 00:21) Posted:
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I will sell Mirach and short it... Maybe suddenly u-turn how? Burnt again...
The new IPO listed counter ISO sure kana short on Monday also, maybe have to ride on that wave...
Slient night today I guess... Many wounded bros today?
h0ly0wl ( Date: 13-Jul-2013 00:44) Posted:
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Stockcham ( Date: 13-Jul-2013 00:41) Posted:
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iluvboost ( Date: 13-Jul-2013 00:17) Posted:
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Stockcham ( Date: 13-Jul-2013 00:33) Posted:
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iluvboost ( Date: 12-Jul-2013 21:55) Posted:
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regarding the selldown, i dont think its naked shorts, cos its too near market close.
although i didnt monitor the buy queue, i think its selldown to create panic. if their fake buy q disappear, only left retailers, they dump to retailers.... mayb wil have 2 wks of quiet distribution.
look at quiet ramba now.
h0ly0wl ( Date: 13-Jul-2013 00:12) Posted:
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