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3 major business division, Palm oil, sugar, soybean crushmeal + oil and flour.
Palm oil and sugar are surely earn business since Wilmar has upstream plantation till down stream product distribution. They can save a lot of cost internally compared to their competitiors.
However soybean crushmeal + oil and flour division is facing fierce competition due to they are losing the upstream plantation which have to rely on the soybean supply from US, Brazil and China. Furthermore, China government control the price of cooking oil against the inflation. upstream price high, downstream cannot sell high, those soybean crush players in China suffer huge loss in past 2 years.
Anyway, worst is past for soybean cruchmeal + oil and flour division since quite a lot of players are flush out in past 2 years.
So, those shortist want to find reason to short Wilmar down, also quite hard. Who short it have to be prepared the worst since past 9M result has show 22% net profit year to year. The last quarter is year end stocking and selling for Chinese New year and etc year end celebration always the best quarter for commodity company. Therefore CPO price is surging, Now the soybean crush margin maintain positive compared to big negative in same period last year.
So I don't find single reason, Wilmar will perform badly in next 3 months at least. So somebody bearish on it. I really can't understand. The only for stopping Wilmar rally will be US debt ceiling talk in Jan to Feb 2014 break down again.
See how lah. just keep and see.
Wilmar has palm tree plantation and processing & merchant division.
Palm tree plantation will benefit from CPO price. Processing & Merchant division may not be benefit due to raw material (CPO price higher).
However, high CPO price can jack up the revenue for both division which allow higher cash flow among the company which is positive to the company. How to be more profitable in processing & Merchant division is subjected to the Wilmar management.
Therefore, in overall, high CPO price is good to Wilmar and market always react positive on it to plam oil related counter.
Rosesyrup ( Date: 21-Nov-2013 14:22) Posted:
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Actually a low cpo price is morr beneficial to wilmar
ynnek1267 ( Date: 21-Nov-2013 14:19) Posted:
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http://www.palmoilhq.com/
CPO price break 1 year high, RM 2629.
Just ignore the yesterday short down, It is not sustainable in short term. CPO price is on the rise. Wilmar as a palm oil giant will shoot fast soon!!!
Let's do a logic price range for Wilmar based on financial result performance (although it doesn't work, just for fun)
Wilmar share price trading ranges in past 1 year is 3.1 to 3.9. Just take the last result, 9M result as a compared, the EPS(earning per share) is 22% increase year to year. So we shall expect a 22% increase in next year share price trading range which is 3.782 to 4.758.
This is newbie theory since it doesn't consider market wind trend, BBs holding and all other issues. However, It is more logic than somebody pure " Battle Prediction"
Wahahahahaahahha!!!!!!!!!!
Compared to lock in with small profit, I would prefer to wait and see if there is a window dressing by year end. Furthermore, I believe Wilmar will be back to above 5 dollar in 2014.
Why I sell cheap??? If shortist think they can bring it down to 3.3, let them do it. I will see if they still can press down Wilmar share price with better performance in coming years.
Wahahahhaahaha!!!!!!!! Let's see if it is year end window dressing or year end dumping in 4 to 6 weeks times.
MetalTrader ( Date: 21-Nov-2013 02:13) Posted:
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3.3 is not a good buy, as within speculation level.
Lock in Profits & Sell down is to be expected that lies above $3.10.
For TonyLim: Don't waste my precious time.
Lock in Profits & Sell down is to be expected that lies above $3.10.
For TonyLim: Don't waste my precious time.
tonylim ( Date: 20-Nov-2013 22:56) Posted:
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MetalTrader, can you stop being a silly joker and waste everyone time reading your baseless predictions and posts
Sealteam6 ( Date: 20-Nov-2013 18:04) Posted:
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鱼 市 场 还 没 关 门 啊 ！ aiyo, those that already trimmed, just wait for 3.3+ to buy again Lo. If go up more sell all Lo. What's there to predict? 不 明 白 ， 这 儿 也 拿 来 吵 ，
Battle of Prediction
19 Nov Afternoon- Market was at $3.63. I boldy predicted Wilmar will fall below $3.63, from this speculative price, in which shareholders only bought at $3, and anything above $3.15 is a speculative amount. Market closed at $3.62. [I warned that market momentum moving well far $3, and into speculative price of $3.15. The market is bound to suffer a major drop in weeks to come despite naive people insisted on uptrend]
20 Nov- Market fall to $3.52 from $3.63. (The first fall and significant losses of $0.11)
On 20 Nov closing: I predicted that there will be several downfalls beneath $3.52. The downfall will continue with a bigger drop awaiting.
19 Nov Afternoon- Market was at $3.63. I boldy predicted Wilmar will fall below $3.63, from this speculative price, in which shareholders only bought at $3, and anything above $3.15 is a speculative amount. Market closed at $3.62. [I warned that market momentum moving well far $3, and into speculative price of $3.15. The market is bound to suffer a major drop in weeks to come despite naive people insisted on uptrend]
20 Nov- Market fall to $3.52 from $3.63. (The first fall and significant losses of $0.11)
On 20 Nov closing: I predicted that there will be several downfalls beneath $3.52. The downfall will continue with a bigger drop awaiting.
Perhaps it's to flush out the speculator ...
to be frank, not a good closing price...
@metal trader, if u think ur prediction really correct why not short.... don't waste ur energy to predict...
seems u prefer to be correct all the time...
You mean he just learn how to use CFD account to play short??? So he happily short Noble, Wilmar, Swiber and etc. Then come here cau bei cau bo????
trading4living ( Date: 20-Nov-2013 17:09) Posted:
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You know i'm really sceptical about our metal koko motive behind.
1. Why he wanted us to sell ?
2. Why our metal koko cun sleep at nite and busy doing research and ask us to sell it middle of the nite?
i am really interested to know. He seems like very worry while
all of us are sleeping tight.
rayyeo ( Date: 20-Nov-2013 16:56) Posted:
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I don't feel offended actually, just can't stop laughing, very interesting person. Wahahahaahah!!!!!
Close at 3.52. Hope for the best tomorrow. If wilmar is real bull, tomorrow shall gap up at least half of what she lose today.
rayyeo ( Date: 20-Nov-2013 16:56) Posted:
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From Noble, I laugh to Wilmar thread. Omg we need more such fishmarket aunties in our lives.
Laughter is indeed the best medicine.
Laughter is indeed the best medicine.
I believe everyone reading your post is laughing at you.
Don't believe look at all the posting by others.
Don't act as if you know everything.
Pui*
Don't believe look at all the posting by others.
Don't act as if you know everything.
Pui*
As predicted according to "Battle Prediction", Wilmar will expect greater fall because of speculation. The 1st day resulted in 10cent losses. The beginning & first fall. More details will be updated later. Note: Pls do not buy/sell based on my prediction. Thank You.