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Yangzijiang has become a market darling: At Deutsche's target price of $1.50, YZJ would trade at 10.5x FY13E PER. Photo: CompanyYangzijiang Shipbuilding replaces Keppel Corp, as we think order flow has better upside potential versus market expectations. The consolidating sector should increase its market share and a number of its 51 contract options issued should be exercised in the coming quarter.
Everyday is a learning day with you around bro cheongsl!
cheongsl , great job !
we need more people like you to provide us with greater insight to make trading decision.
They like to buy when yzj is 2$ ... I like to sell to them at that price :)
The most funny thing about Kim Eng Report is that it compare with 2008 for the contract price, where BDI is more then 10,000, currently only around 2,000. But they forget to compare the steel price in China in 2008 and current which is around 720USD per tonne and current is 491USD per tonne, don't forget USD drop alot in this period, thus the decline in steel price is even more.
Container freight rates softening despite the surge in BDI.
Despite the surge in BDI, when comparing over a longer time horizon, BDI level is still significantly below peak or even the more normalised levels of 2,000-6,000. Furthermore, BDI reflects the bulk shipping market and is not representative of the whole shipping market. The container shipping market remains weak as evidenced by the fall in Shanghai Containerised Freight Index. While Maersk has raised their demand growth in 2014-2015 to 4-6% from 2-3%,
the increased capacity expected to come in from shipyards still far exceeds the expected demand growth given thet 10-11% growth in capacity this year. This creates a huge supply-demand gap which we believed continue to cap rate increases.
BDI level above 1400 is consider good for shipping company already, but they are taking the over shoot abnormal period to normalize, thus consider below peak??? That means when the BDI is abnormal then we should consider picking up the share.
This type of thinking is very funny to me?
CCFI fall?? The index is hover around 1100 pts. Up and down, there isn?t any fall. Beside that Yang Zi Jiang order does not mainly come from the China shipper, why are they consider China freight rate.cheongsl ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 21:30) Posted:
Yes, it is possible to have +ve and -ve report as individual have different level of understanding to one situation.
Eg. Kim Eng Report which mention as below.
" BDI rise led by mainly by capesize rates. The positive expectation was fueled by a sudden surge in BDI. This may have been driven by Chinese steel producers restocking their iron-ore
inventory and importing cheaper and higher quality seaborne supplies from Australia over domestic supplies. Historically bulker rates have been volatile and had rose during this same period at least for the last 3 years prior in the led up to Chinese Golden Weak. Furthermore, the recent rise was mainly driven mainly by rate hikes for capesize vessels. We are skeptical about its sustainability without convincing signs of an economic recovery. China?s September PMI came in at 51.1, below market expectations which cast further doubts on a sustained economic
rebound."
BDI is driven by steel producer restocking their iron-ore inventory??? and rose in same period due to Chinese golden week???
Lets take a look at BCI, the major increase is actually due to Atlantic Freight not Pacific Freight, if Kim Eng researches think that China is in Atlantic boundary then they better go back to secondary to study Geogarphy.
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Atlantic
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Pacific
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4/6 months
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39750
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29500
|
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1 year
|
26000
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23250
|
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2 years
|
21750
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21250
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Rose in the same period
2010 is from Jun to Aug
2011 is from Jul to Sep
2012 is from Sep to Nov
2013 is from Jul to ??
China Golden week for national day is 1 Oct, does not see the consistency in their arguement.
The rate hikes is mainly from capesize vessels? but when you computed the data you will find that Panamax size also contribute significantly to the increase.
|
BCI
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BPI
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BSI
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Yesterday (USD)
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36069
|
14316
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11369
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1 year ago (USD)
|
9114
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3957
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8464
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% Increase
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295.75%
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261.79%
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34.32%
|
They talking about PMI of china as they already focus the wrong area the rise was due to the atlantic transportation.
That is why I am sketical about the report.
ascend88 ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 16:12) Posted:
in every +ve report....its good to have a few -ve ones too....
at least it will bring some sense back to us....
if all reports are super good ...super +ve ...and all buy buy buy call....then i will be very scare...
read and research more into it....
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|
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Thats why yzj closed back at 1.135
Thanks bro cheong
Yes, it is possible to have +ve and -ve report as individual have different level of understanding to one situation.
Eg. Kim Eng Report which mention as below.
" BDI rise led by mainly by capesize rates. The positive expectation was fueled by a sudden surge in BDI. This may have been driven by Chinese steel producers restocking their iron-ore
inventory and importing cheaper and higher quality seaborne supplies from Australia over domestic supplies. Historically bulker rates have been volatile and had rose during this same period at least for the last 3 years prior in the led up to Chinese Golden Weak. Furthermore, the recent rise was mainly driven mainly by rate hikes for capesize vessels. We are skeptical about its sustainability without convincing signs of an economic recovery. China?s September PMI came in at 51.1, below market expectations which cast further doubts on a sustained economic
rebound."
BDI is driven by steel producer restocking their iron-ore inventory??? and rose in same period due to Chinese golden week???
Lets take a look at BCI, the major increase is actually due to Atlantic Freight not Pacific Freight, if Kim Eng researches think that China is in Atlantic boundary then they better go back to secondary to study Geogarphy.
|
Atlantic
|
Pacific
|
|
4/6 months
|
39750
|
29500
|
|
1 year
|
26000
|
23250
|
|
2 years
|
21750
|
21250
|
Rose in the same period
2010 is from Jun to Aug
2011 is from Jul to Sep
2012 is from Sep to Nov
2013 is from Jul to ??
China Golden week for national day is 1 Oct, does not see the consistency in their arguement.
The rate hikes is mainly from capesize vessels? but when you computed the data you will find that Panamax size also contribute significantly to the increase.
|
BCI
|
BPI
|
BSI
|
Yesterday (USD)
|
36069
|
14316
|
11369
|
1 year ago (USD)
|
9114
|
3957
|
8464
|
% Increase
|
295.75%
|
261.79%
|
34.32%
|
They talking about PMI of china as they already focus the wrong area the rise was due to the atlantic transportation.
That is why I am sketical about the report. ascend88 ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 16:12) Posted:
in every +ve report....its good to have a few -ve ones too....
at least it will bring some sense back to us....
if all reports are super good ...super +ve ...and all buy buy buy call....then i will be very scare...
read and research more into it....
|
|
still holding on to 1.13...
we will know who is the poker face....
fundmental is control by the management of company and the overall econmy....
sentiments...is control by ourselves...
ascend88 ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 16:17) Posted:
remember....stock market is not only abt fundamental of the company.....its abt the human sentiments too....
|
|
remember....stock market is not only abt fundamental of the company.....its abt the human sentiments too....
in every +ve report....its good to have a few -ve ones too....
at least it will bring some sense back to us....
if all reports are super good ...super +ve ...and all buy buy buy call....then i will be very scare...
read and research more into it....
shadow ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 09:27) Posted:
Kim Eng Issued Sell Report
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding - Wary of a False Dawn Cut to Sell ($1.135 - TP $0.98,
YZJSGD SP, Marine) |
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You guys sound very bias to me. You can not accept any bad buy only good Dangerous. You are in Love with Yangzijiang? Fell in Love??
shadow ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 10:10) Posted:
moneycrow, i agreed..
" KE report on other hand seem bias............." |
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moneycrow, i agreed..
" KE report on other hand seem bias............."
KIM ENG now belongs to Maybank ?
You gotta do your own search for facts and figures...............Order book cannot fake............. writing can twist............
shadow ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 09:39) Posted:
So far from what i gathered at this point
Kim Eng :SELL
DBS, Deutche Bank, CIMB, Barclay, Credit Suisse : BUY CALL
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So far from what i gathered at this point
Kim Eng :SELL
DBS, Deutche Bank, CIMB, Barclay, Credit Suisse : BUY CALL
A little messy on earlier post...................here is an extract.................
Today?s Focus (
yesterday)
Yangzijiang ? Secured massive orders worth
US$871m reiterate BUY, TP S$1.32
Yangzijiang has secured massive orders worth US$871m
of contracts comprising: i) New orders for four 208k dwt
bulk carriers (with options for two identical vessels) and ii)
Exercise of 13 options including five 82k dwt bulk carriers,
three 64k dwt bulk carriers and five 10k TEU
containerships (Seaspan). The 208k dwt bulk carrier orders
are the first capesize contracts for Yangzijiang, reinforcing
company?s strategy to move up the value chain to build
more sophisticated vessels. Prior to this, the largest bulk
carrier Yangzijiang undertook was 95k dwt panamax. The
contract prices seem in line with Clarkson?s average
newbuilding prices for respective vessels. We understand
the payment term varies but collection prior to delivery is
at least 30%.
These new orders have lifted Yangzijiang?s YTD wins from
US$1.22bn to US$2.10bn, outpaced our expectations of
US$2bn this year. We raise FY13 order win assumption to
US$2.5bn in anticipation of more options exercising in the
coming months. Yangzijiang has remaining 28 options
worth US$1.36bn consist of 11 containerships worth
US$0.85bn and 17 multi-purpose bulk carriers worth
US$0.51bn. Our FY13-15F forecast are largely intact as
the additional order wins are expected to contribute more
to FY16 earnings. These latest 17 orders are scheduled for
delivery in 2015-2016. Reiterate BUY with unchanged
target price of S$1.32.
moneycow ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 09:34) Posted:
Who to trust ?
Brokerage house like DBS vickers is more neutral - KE report on other hand seem bias.............
My personal opinion nia :)
--------------
Today?s Focus
Hi-P ? Uncertainty rising, downgrade to HOLD, TP cut
to S$0.65
Yangzijiang ? Secured massive orders worth
US$871m reiterate BUY, TP S$1.32
We see uncertainty rising for Hi-P. Customer demand is
falling short on weaker than expected reception to 5C
iPhones and rising stockpiles. We expect 3Q to be on
track but momentum is likely to fizzle out, thus
weakening the outlook for 4Q and even FY14.
Downgrade to HOLD, TP cut to S$0.65 (Prev S$ 0.97).
Yangzijiang has secured massive orders worth US$871m
of contracts comprising: i) New orders for four 208k dwt
bulk carriers (with options for two identical vessels) and ii)
Exercise of 13 options including five 82k dwt bulk carriers,
three 64k dwt bulk carriers and five 10k TEU
containerships (Seaspan). The 208k dwt bulk carrier orders
are the first capesize contracts for Yangzijiang, reinforcing
company?s strategy to move up the value chain to build
more sophisticated vessels. Prior to this, the largest bulk
carrier Yangzijiang undertook was 95k dwt panamax. The
contract prices seem in line with Clarkson?s average
newbuilding prices for respective vessels. We understand
the payment term varies but collection prior to delivery is
at least 30%.
These new orders have lifted Yangzijiang?s YTD wins from
US$1.22bn to US$2.10bn, outpaced our expectations of
US$2bn this year. We raise FY13 order win assumption to
US$2.5bn in anticipation of more options exercising in the
coming months. Yangzijiang has remaining 28 options
worth US$1.36bn consist of 11 containerships worth
US$0.85bn and 17 multi-purpose bulk carriers worth
US$0.51bn. Our FY13-15F forecast are largely intact as
the additional order wins are expected to contribute more
to FY16 earnings. These latest 17 orders are scheduled for
delivery in 2015-2016. Reiterate BUY with unchanged
target price of S$1.32.
shadow ( Date: 03-Oct-2013 09:27) Posted:
Kim Eng Issued Sell Report
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding - Wary of a False Dawn Cut to Sell ($1.135 - TP $0.98,
YZJSGD SP, Marine) |
|
|
|
OCBC issued hold report.
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