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Hope it help...For more info...refer to SJ forum, property & it prices - outlook for 2008.
| teeth53 |
Posted: 21-May-2008 16:47 |
This is what i mean...sharing my thought (tot). Delaying it due to reason is private equity fund has yet to consolidate those deals, might be "all CASH out". Yet another story said 2-thirds backed out buying World's tallest condo in US after US sub-prime crisis took a bad turn for the worst. ....Hit badly by many Singaporean buyers pulling out. Does not sound upbeat to me, in my own tot. |
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| teeth53 |
Posted: 21-May-2008 16:36 |
http://business.asiaone.com/Business/My%2BMoney/Property/Story/A1Story20080520-65958.html More news Just FYI: Pre-sold projects lend support as developers undergo correction.......interested, read on...... ended of it, it mentioned factoring in this a 20 % correction for high - end segment and 13% for mid -end segment and for mass market, a 5% correction. |
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| teeth53 |
Posted: 21-May-2008 16:25 |
| Meanwhile hot on the news in Straits Times paper main back page, Money page H18. It read this way. Heading South ? for Bank see plunge in home prices in the next teo years. New homes, rising vancancy rates, unsold condos and fewer rental deals cited as reason. Some developments where sub-sale units - those bought and resold before completion - have fallen in prices. six mths ago City Dev and other give zero commissions to agent, now it give 1 to 5 %. whem Developer reach out to agent, U know it is painful $$$ (no choice). The pain is coming from slower growth in home rents and prices as the effect take it toll from US sub-prime mortgage crisis on amrket sentiment in S'pore. So think CD chief will have to wait a little longer then he like to.......or another word those who think 1 2 sell their property choice home, better do so.... then wait it out. Pen ur tot. thk Qs |
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| teeth53 |
Posted: 21-May-2008 15:43 |
| Got this in turn from Pikachu, refer to Property Bubble ? (SJ) forum. #1. There was no demand for housing when the boom started. The vacancy rates on existing housing were above New York, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and other major urban market levels. A Singapore property boom made no sense at all. #2. Singapore GDP...nice impressive numbers. But the growth was 99% construction related. There is no economic growth when the construction boom ends and those numbers are subtracted from the total. #3. The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market. #4. Value for money on Singapore property for foreign investors is not good when compared to other projected growth economies. (several factors are weighed including psf, quality of workmanship, size of economy, projected growth of economy, lifestyle and culture of the market.) #5. The targeted future population numbers of Singapore are pie in the sky and completely without substance. Singaporeans are not having kids and the demand for jobs in Singapore will be service led lower paying jobs to supply the planned tourism developments. Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end. And tourists visit, they don't buy or rent. #6. Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities. #7. There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market. This leads to investors belief in hype and speculation rather than economic principles. #8. Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy. We expect distress sales in the property market to start soon. The high-end rental market is non-existent and the higher % of all unit sales were high-end investment property, speculator driven. |
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I have noticed friends who buy properties and are fearful now
Fearful is the correct word
Hope it help....
I am new here, can anyone help to explain what is the meaning of Ex-date, Rec.Date, Paid/Payable?
How to entitle to have a devidend? when should I buy this share and hold until which day then can have a devidend?
thank you
|
ompany |
Particulars |
Ex-Date |
Rec. Date |
Paid/Payable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED |
DIVIDEND : FINAL SGD 0.125 SPECIAL ONE-TIER TAX | 06 May 2008 | 08 May 2008 | 23 May 2008 |
| CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED |
DIVIDEND : SGD 0.075 FINAL ONE-TIER TAX | 06 May 2008 | 08 May 2008 | 23 May 2008 |
City Developments, Southeast Asia's second-largest property developer, extended losses for a second day after Credit Suisse downgraded its investment rating to "underperform".
"Being a proxy to the Singapore property market we believe it (City Developments) is vulnerable to further negative news flow within the sector," said Credit Suisse analyst Tricia Song, who set a target price of $10.20 for the firm.
"The U.S. weakness is still not completely factored in, so except for rental prices, it will still take some time for the property markets here to take off again," a dealer said.
Could KLB bring him more ME partners???
liveuser ( Date: 06-Apr-2008 21:14) Posted:
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CDL seems to have awakened from its slumber and inertia. Since the CNY, I have been collecting more CDL as the mgmt seems hungrier and more adventurous. Its M&C Grand Beijing has juz opened in preparation for the Beijing Olympics. This will be followed by M&C Chengdu, Qingdao, Xiamen and Wuxi. In addition, I am awaiting news abt the progress of its Moscow project. Maybe we can hear some news on this Thursday's AGM.
Did any1 notice the BizTimes advert on the City Square Mall??? Seems it will be huge. Will be ready by 1H 2009.
Faces stiff resistance
- CityDev has staged a reversal as per our 25 March forecast.
- At this juncture we are observing signs of the rebound pulling back in the near-term. First sign arose from the formation of a reversal candlestick 2 days ago on the back of very high volume. Furthermore, yesterday's price move up was on lower volume and the failure to close above S$12.40, which was the previous day's close, suggests the upwards trend is losing
momentum.
- The second sign came from the stochastic indicator which has not only risen into the overbought region but is also displaying a reversal in trend, suggesting that CityDev could pare off some of its gains in the near-term.
- There is strong resistance at our forecasted level of S$12.40, which was a critical reversal level in Feb and Aug 07 and it was also a level around which price has consolidated and pulled back more recently between Jan and Feb 08.
- Any weakness from hereon would find support at the 50-day moving average first before attempting to go lower towards the uptrend line and subsequently the support level at S$10.40.
- CityDev has staged a reversal as per our 25 March forecast.
- At this juncture we are observing signs of the rebound pulling back in the near-term. First sign arose from the formation of a reversal candlestick 2 days ago on the back of very high volume. Furthermore, yesterday's price move up was on lower volume and the failure to close above S$12.40, which was the previous day's close, suggests the upwards trend is losing
momentum.
- The second sign came from the stochastic indicator which has not only risen into the overbought region but is also displaying a reversal in trend, suggesting that CityDev could pare off some of its gains in the near-term.
- There is strong resistance at our forecasted level of S$12.40, which was a critical reversal level in Feb and Aug 07 and it was also a level around which price has consolidated and pulled back more recently between Jan and Feb 08.
- Any weakness from hereon would find support at the 50-day moving average first before attempting to go lower towards the uptrend line and subsequently the support level at S$10.40.
hee...went in 2x 9.64...and out 2x 9.90 :P....swui swui... :D
gee...some of my bro SHORTED this burger siah !! :D
|
Company |
Particulars |
Ex-Date |
Rec. Date |
Paid/Payable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED |
DIVIDEND : FINAL SGD 0.125 SPECIAL ONE-TIER TAX | 06 May 2008 | 08 May 2008 | 23 May 2008 |
| CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED |
DIVIDEND : SGD 0.075 FINAL ONE-TIER TAX | 06 May 2008 | 08 May 2008 | 23 May 2008 |
does anyone have the latest information (TP, dividend yield, etc)?
Citigroup - Downgrading to Hold: Limited Upside from Office Segment
Hold/Low Risk 2L
from Buy/Low Risk
Price (26 Nov 07) S$14.40
Target price S$15.90
from S$18.00
Expected share price return 10.4%
Expected dividend yield 2.0%
Expected total return 12.4%
Market Cap S$13,094M
US$9,084M
Downgrade to Hold/Low Risk ? We are cutting our RNAV estimate to S$14.47 from S$15.28 and target price to S$15.90 to reflect lower capital values of office buildings. The downward revision would have been sharper if not for higher residential prices in the mass-market segment and the inclusion of the surplus from the company?s South Beach road site.
Office supply is rising rapidly ? The market is underestimating the potential supply of new office space in 2010 and beyond, in our view. Since May 2007, 6 new sites with a GFA of 5m sq ft have been awarded and could add 3m sq ft of new office space in 2010-11. This implies that on average 3.2m sq ft of new supply could hit the market from 2010-12, vs. historical average demand of 1.5m sq ft per annum.
Limited upside in capital values ? Although office rentals could continue to firm up in 2008, the upside is likely to be limited as investors would seek higher cap rates to compensate for the increased longer-term risk to demand, growing supply and the higher cost of capital in the face of the subprime crisis.
Positive on residential segment, which accounts for 40% of its assets ? We remain positive on the residential market, particularly in the mass to midend segment, given the demand-supply disequilibrium. CityDev has the largest and most diversified residential landbank among the developers in our coverage, giving the group flexibility in responding to market demand.
City Developments (S$14.20) - 3Q07 results - Strong results but caution looms
Above expectations. 3Q07 EPS of 17.8cts was above our expectations on faster-thanexpected residential sale recognition, forming 31% of our full-year forecast and 30% of consensus. 9M07 EPS of 51.3cts makes up 89% of our full-year estimate.
Robust growth in all segments. Topline grew 20% yoy to S$796m on solid performances in all segments. NPAT leapt 32% yoy to S$170m on strong contributions from projects such as City Square Residences, Tribeca and Residences @ Evelyn. We expect further healthy bookings in 4Q07. Rental revenue jumped 19% yoy on higher rents and occupancy while hotel revenue grew 8% yoy to S$36m on higher group RevPAR achieved.
Mix of mid- to high-end launches in the pipeline. We believe CityDev plans to introduce four projects in the coming months. Wilkie Studio (estimated ASP S$1,000psf), Shelford Suites (S$1,200psf) and The Quayside Collection at Sentosa Cove (S$2,500psf) appear most likely in the near term although uncertain market conditions could delay the launches till after 1Q08
Caution looms as two towers at Cliveden are sold in JV with Wachovia. While the reported selling price of S$3,750psf is attractive, the sale surprised us as it marked a Uturn from management?s earlier position. Management previously expressed that the two blocks at Cliveden could be retained as investment assets. While a divestment to a REIT appears a possible exit strategy for the JV, CityDev could also be looking to mitigate the risk of holding on to excess land bank.
Earnings adjustments. We have raised our FY07 EPS forecast by 16% on more aggressive recognition for the year. We lower ASP assumptions by 10% for selected projects yet to be launched and adjusted our FY08-09 recognition schedules in anticipation of slower transaction volumes. Consequently, our FY08-09 EPS estimates have been adjusted by -8% to +13%.
Premium no longer warranted; downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. We remove the premium to our end-CY08 RNAV estimate as we believe this is no longer warranted in the current stage of the cycle. Our target price, now pegged at parity to RNAV, has been cut from S$19.50 to S$15.50. With the largest residential land bank in the sector, CityDev could be hit by a potential residential slowdown. We expect newsflow on possible asset divestments and/or value creation via an office REIT to provide re-rating catalysts.
OCBC - City Developments Ltd: Most defensive developer
High base reduced growth. City Developments (CDL) reported a very good set of 3Q07 results with revenue improving 20% YoY to S$796.2m, and net profit growing over 32% YoY to S$169.5m. However, PATMI was affected by high base and tax credits over the last 12 months. A more reflective organic growth metrics would be to exclude tax and previous years' divestment gains. Adjusting for these one-off items, CDL's pre-tax would have seen a robust growth of 61% YoY. All divisions did well, and pre-tax margin improved to 31% from 23%. The residential division was the most important, accounting for about 60% of pre-tax profits. We are adjusting our FY07F and FY08F earnings to S$643m and S$693m, up from S$516m and S$567m, respectively.
Residential remains the star. Pre-tax margin from residential was 63% in 3Q07, up from 53%, reflecting CDL's low land cost and strong market conditions. This beats office and hotel margins of 34% and 16%. More importantly, going forward, CDL has plenty of profits yet to be booked from pre-sales. Year to date, CDL has sold over 1,500 units worth over S$3.2bn, and these will be constructed over the next 2-3 years and we estimate pretax profits of over S$1.6bn.
CDL has been busy over past quarter. CDL has been fairly active over the past quarter. It expanded its footprint into Moscow, sold about 90% of its Cliveden at Grange, and finally acquired the prized Beach Road mixed development site for S$1.69bn. The Beach Road development is financially most significant and we estimate that the total development cost (TDC) to be about S$2.6bn with CDL's stake at S$867m. Furthermore, we forecast the project breakeven at about S$1,845 psf, giving CDL an NAV accretion of about S$291m (or S$0.32/share). However, we are not adjusting our fair value as we had already assumed growth in our valuation.
Maintain BUY. In light of the market volatility, the uncertainty of the credit market and S$ strength, we prefer developers with a defensive earnings profile. In that context, we like CDL for its domestic residential and office market exposure. Moreover, with S$3.2bn worth of residential sales yet to be booked in, we see CDL's earnings growth as assured. CDL also has about S$3.9bn of investments assets to be unlocked and this could be another leg up for earnings. We maintain our fair value of S$18.80 and BUY rating.
DBS Vickers - Value unlocking potential on all fronts ?????
Hold S$14.20 Price Target : 12-month S$ 14.91 (Prev S$17.20)
Story: Overall, revenue and earnings grew by 29% and 129% respectively to S$2.34bn and S$490m, boosted all three main segments of businesses in residential development, investment properties and hotel operations through subsidiary M&C.
Point: CDLs value is underpinned by its huge landbank and potential for unlocking this via development. A recent sale of two blocks in Cliveden by CDL to a CDL/Wachovia JV sparked off speculation on the potential of a residential REIT in the works. Should it materialise, we view it as a positive move to lock in residential capital values in the current cycle.
CDL has also recently bagged choice site South Beach, and we have factored in potential development surplus of S$285m based on our initial estimates.
Relevance: We have revisited our RNAV estimates for CDL based on:
incremental development profits from its residential landbank, revised valuations of the investment property portfolio and raised valuation of M&C backed by consensus fair value estimates. We have lowered our target price to S$14.91 pegged at parity (vs 10% premium previously) to RNAV in view of the current concerns in the residential and office markets. We maintain our Hold recommendation at current price levels.
Goldman Sachs - Strong 3Q07 results, raising estimates
What's changed
City Dev (CDL) posted PATMI of S$169.5 mn for 3Q07, up 32% yoy and S$490 mn for first 9 months, up 129% yoy. Excluding recognition in 3Q06 of S$150.9 mn in profit from sale of interest in 4 Singapore hotels to CDL Hospitality Trusts, pre-tax profit rose 61% yoy in 3Q07. CDL?s nine months profit accounted for 81% of our full year estimates. CDL does not book revaluation gains as it adopts the cost model under FRS 40. By segment, property development (predominantly Singapore) and hotel operations were healthy, contributing 57% and 31% of PBIT for first 9 months. Group paid special interim ordinary dividend of S$0.10 per share on Oct 30.
Implications
Results for the first 9 months are ahead of our expectations (at the high end of the street). We see continued strong profits from Singapore residential with the group expecting to start booking profits from The Solitaire in 4Q07 and One Shenton and Cliveden at Grange from next year onwards. Amidst sentiment in Singapore?s residential market turning somewhat negative post the withdrawal of deferred payment scheme in late October, we look for response to CDL?s launches in the coming months of Wilkie Studio, Shelford Suites, The Quayside Collection at Sentosa Cove, and the former Lock Cho apartments at Thomson Road to drive share price performance. We note for the first 9 months, the group sold 1,590 units with sales value of S$2.9 bn, and expect continued sales momentum with a healthy pipeline of forthcoming launches. The group?s London-listed Millennium & Copthorne (M&C) is still looking for a CEO.
Valuation
We raise EPS estimates by 6.9%/4.1% for FY07/08E respectively. We maintain Neutral, but raise our 12mth TP to S$15.80 (from S$15.70), set at parity to end-08E RNAV. CDL is trading at a 10% discount to our RNAV.
Key risks
Take up and selling prices for Singapore residential projects.
INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP
Neutral
Investment view: Branching out but still Singapore?s proxy
We note that CDL has been seizing more property development opportunities overseas such as in Korea and Russia. The group?s private real estate fund has also bought the Jungceylon complex, which is the largest shopping mall in Phuket, Thailand. We would not be surprised if the group continues to grab overseas business opportunities possibly in markets like Vietnam and China. But while the group grows its overseas property development activities, we continue to see CDL?s share price performance being driven by the group?s Singapore residential projects and Singapore commercial portfolio. We note for the first 9 months, the group sold 1,590 units with sales value of S$2.9 bn and that the group has a healthy pipeline of forthcoming residential launches.
We think the group?s 4.3 mn sq ft of lettable space in its commercial portfolio allows it various options to maximize value such as asset divestment, asset conversion and setting up an office REIT. With the group expecting the Singapore rental market over the next 2 to 3 years to be strong, and having a strong balance sheet, we no see major moves by the group to monetize its commercial portfolio. Moreover, with relatively weak response to recent REIT IPOs in Singapore, we do not see CDL wanting to launch an office REIT any time soon. We can look forward to more details being unveiled on the South Beach integrated development, which CDL is jointly undertaking with Dubai World and El-Ad Group. This development, located along Beach Road, with total GFA of about 1.6 mn sq ft will include around 630,000 sf of office space, 2 hotels, city residences and over 100,000 sf of retail space.
Nomura - Neutral
Our view
CDL?s 3Q07 results were up 32.1% y-y, though the strength in essence reflects buoyant pre-sale demand over the past 12 months. Certainly momentum in the market has stalled, with low pre-sales and limited new launches looking a precursor to a review of pre-sale launch prices. Fair value cut to S$15.61/share. NEUTRAL.
Anchor themes
Singapore?s residential recovery has broadened beyond prime locations to the mid-upper market, underpinned by rising rents. However, pre-sale demand in the luxury sector is likely to moderate, in our view, as foreign buyers reassess their global property exposure, tempering capital growth expectations in the sector.
Low office supply and competitive rents (relative to Hong Kong) will underpin further rises in rents/capital values, with the release of new land by the government to be measured (see Anchor Report: Hot rents, leaping tenants, 25 June, 2007).
Firm results, though demand softer
�� Firm results, underpinned by pre-sales
City Developments (CDL) reported 3Q07 net profits of S$169.5mn, with profitability boosted once again by property development. Note: 2Q07 net profit was S$194.4mn, up 333% y-y, while 1Q07 net profit was S$126.1mn, up 206% y-y. Pre-tax profit for 9M07 was S$670.8mn, 73.0% of our full-year forecast. Underpinning the 3Q07 results were two main factors. First was a 83.0% y-y rise in pre-tax property development profits to S$147.3mn (2Q07: S$133.7mn), helped by profits from the group?s associate residential developments, notably the St. Regis Residence and The Sail @ Marina Bay. Associate contributions totalled S$64.3mn in 3Q07, up 85.9% y-y (versus figures of S$84.2mn in 2Q07 and S$34.6mn in 3Q06). Second was a 35.9% y-y rise in pre-tax profits from the group?s hotel operations (ex exceptionals), in part due to a 9.6% y-y rise in RevPAR at Millennium & Copthorne (M&C).
�� Lower speculation to temper price/volume expectations
CDL?s reported strong results in essence reflect strong demand over the latter half of 2006 and early 2007, with these pre-sales now being booked in CDL?s results (and they should underpin near-term earnings). However, it is evident that sentiment and demand in Singapore?s residential market has softened markedly over the past quarter, at a time of expectations of rising supply. Worst hit has been the upper end of the market, where speculative activity has slowed amid the global re-pricing of risk, though softer demand will likely spill into other market segments. Indeed, while CDL sold 1,590 units in 9M07, it sold only 275 units in 3Q07. In our view, the recent decision by the government to withdraw the deferred payment scheme (DPS) for purchases of uncompleted private residential and commercial properties (on 26 October, 2007), is simply recognition that speculative activity was having a material impact on both demand and capital values in the residential sector (both pre-sale and secondary markets) and that the DPS was a contributory factor. While we don?t see CDL being directly affected by the move, with less than 35% of its sales structured under the scheme, we expect the withdrawal of the scheme will materially affect demand, specifically in the luxury sector, impacting capital value growth expectations, and ultimately residential pre-sale volumes/values, thereby indirectly affecting all Singapore developers, including CDL. While we see the mid market as being broadly on firm footing (CDL?s niche market given its diversified 6.2mn sf GFA residential landbank), weaker market sentiment is likely to be manifested in lower longer-term capital growth expectations and lower land values.
�� Fair value cut to S$15.61/share. NEUTRAL maintained
CDL?s strong 3Q07 results were broadly in line with expectations, with pre-tax profit for 9M07 about 73.0% of our full-year forecast. While we have opted to maintain our earnings forecasts, we have cut our fair value to reflect marked to market valuations of CDL?s subsidiaries and lower anticipated land values for development property as price expectations are revised. We have cut our SOTP valuation to S$15.61/share (from S$17.22), due to 1) marking to market CDL?s attributable value in M&C amid a reassessment of global hotel valuations; and 2) reappraising our imputed value of CDL?s REIT divestment strategy, given current market valuations. We have applied a price to book of 1.1x on the anticipated residual holdings owned by CDL following divestment to a proposed REIT, in line with the current market value of 1.1x, and below our previous assumption of 1.35x. While we retain our view of modest price gains in the mass residential sector (less than 10% y-y in 2008F), longer-term growth expectations are likely to be moderated, directly impacting land values. We have subsequently cut the average value of CDL?s undeveloped land bank by about 15%, valuing the assets at S$435/psf ppr, versus our previous assumption of S$560/psf ppr.
City Developments Ltd (CDL) looks headed for record profits for full-year 2007 after achieving net earnings of $169.5 million for the third quarter ended Sept 30, and $490 million for the first nine months. Third-quarter earnings were up 32.1 per cent and nine-month earnings 128.5 per cent from the corresponding periods last year. Market watchers reckon that for the full-year, the property and hotel group should be able to surpass its best showing of over $500 million net earnings about a decade ago. On the group's prospects, CDL said yesterday: 'With the outstanding sales achievements over the past few years, this has enabled the group to lock in its profits, placing it in a rewarding position to perform well in the next few years as profit will continue to be recognised progressively.' CDL executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng said that 'continued capital appreciation in the next few years is likely and the prospects for the property sector continue to be good'.
KIM ENG - Spreading Its Wings
♦ Strong earnings persist in 3Q07
City Developments (CDL) posted $169.5m in net profit for 3Q07, up 32.1% Y/Y. This despite a $150.9m gain recognised in 3Q06 from the sale of four hotels to CDLHT. This brings YTD net profit to $490m, in line with our expectations. On a sequential basis, net profit actually fell 12.8% due to a write-back of tax provisions in 2Q07, resulting in a tax credit of $13.2m as opposed to a tax charge of $44m in 3Q07. Revenue grew 19.7% Y/Y and 2.7% Q/Q to $791.2m.
♦ Property development the star performer
CDL?s property development segment wasthe largest contributor in 3Q07, accounting for 60% of group PBT of $245.3m. This wasdespite the fact that profits from One Shenton, The Solitaire and Cliveden at Grange werenot yet recognised. Its hotel segment, run by subsidiary M&C, also continues to do well; 3Q07 PATMI grew 7.3% Y/Y to £27.8m.
♦ Reserving choice Cliveden units for itself
In an unprecedented move, CDL has tied up with the US-based Wachovia Group to purchase two towers of its own development, Cliveden at Grange. The towers, deemed the best in the development, comprise 44 of the total 110 units. CDL has a 40% stake in the joint venture and will pay $432.4m for the towers, averaging $3,750 psf. The rationale behind the move is that CDL and its partner see potential capital appreciation and possible rental income.
♦ From South Korea to Russia
Subsequent to the tie-up in South Korea with DC Chemical, CDL also announced that it is entering the Russian market by taking a 50% stake in Soft Proekt, which owns the Iris Congress Hotel and a 9-storey serviced apartment building in Moscow. The hotel is likely to be repositioned as a Copthorne Hotel. The JValso plans to build a mixed-development adjacent to the hotel, comprising business and conference facilities, F&B areas and a car park. No further details were given about the expected GFA of the development.
♦ Of deep value
Despite the current cautious outlook in the property market following the withdrawal of the Deferred Payment Scheme, we remain positive aboutCDL?s residential projects. Meanwhile, CDL has also accelerated its overseas expansion plans. Reiterate BUY at $19.20, based on 20% premium to RNAV.