Keppel    Last:6.74   -

Keppel Corp

"There'e a time for everything"... as per the great Shakespeare...

 

Never underestimate the swing of investor sentiments....

 

 

Do allow me to give my FA take on KC. The following are my opinions of each of the major KC components for FY 2008:

O&M - Revenues will continuue to be robust with the strong order books. Margins may be squeezed due to cost pressures (labour, steel). However, with the completion of the loss making P51 project will not weigh on it.

SPC -  Refining margins will continue to be healthy and FY08 results will be further boosted by the full year contribution from the increased up stream revenues.

KepLd - FY07 results were boosted by property revaluation which will unlikely be repeated in FY08. Property sales in Spore will also slow down with the slowing property market. China properties are abit bubbly and may affect KepLd if the bubble gives way.....after the Olympics?  Rental Revenues will probably be boosted in FY09 with the TOP of Marina Bay Financial Center development.

Infrastructure - Fledgling sector that is beginning to show profit FY07. Expect to see double or triple digit growth for FY08.....but will not make too big an impact KC result as it is still small compared to the other sectors.

Divident Yield - FY07 divident & cap reduction of 64ct includes one off to celebrate KC's 40th anniversary. This is unlikely to be repeated for FY08.

Personnal opnion..... caveat emptor. 

 

I am surprise that KC drops to below $10.40 which was the price after they split the share last year. I do remember just 2 years back when KC was trading at $6.50 and I was eyeing on them. They power charge up so strongly that they did not look back, (which I was hoping I can get in if they pull back), and trade above $22.00 before they split. If we put back the share split of current price, it's still abover $20.00....I still find it expensive. Although it's quite impossible for KC to trade back to the previous price of $8.00 range before the share split which translate to about $4.00 of current price (drop of $6.00 from here), I will be excited and get in if KC were to trade around $7.00 to $8.00. I am sure not many people likes this posts of mine...hehehe....

 

Thanks Elf,  for sharing.  Hope the KC thingy you mention can play out soon with minimum  carnage for everyone. (i can hold for around 5 mths).





As you have wisely said, "misery is a choice, just as happiness is a choice. it all depends on what one chooses to be..." .  I shd maybe wind down and go back to former jalan tiong area lah kopi reelax a bit

 

 

Hahaha...

I am not long in KepCorp, but short... already in the money ...

What I meant was, from the chart, a double bottom reversal is not too likely, though it was to be expected earlier on (ie. before the price went lower than the previous bottom on 22 Jan 08).

Actually, if I were long in this one, if it goes down beloe the previous bottom, it would have been a nice signal to simply dump it... and this is what technical trading is about... (I was just kidding to say I would be biting my nails)...


 

 

?? if you're a techie, you simply follow the signals. no need to shiver or bite nails, or hope or get arrogant etc. emotions do not belong in technicals.

relax lah. 4 day break. happy chinese new year! spend it with family and friends! am definitely looking forward to tomorrow (or rather, today.)

cheers! :)

 

JT... :)

What I meant was the first bottom @10.10  on 22 Jan 08...

And today's price went lower than this... thus not too likely to be a bullish signal...

I'd be shivering in my pants and biting nails if I were long now...

 

Hi Manikamaniho

 agree with u in a way, 1st time ($10 in aug), 2nd time ($9.98 tdy), 3rd time ....?

 

Hi Elf

 heehee, no worries abt yr other id, its yr sincere views and kindly response that matters, where u are always a generously positive forummer.   hard not to think about stocks leh, think will carry in my head thru mon. I think i must learn more from AK, give that man a beer and ourselves too.

you're right, i think the 11.50 resistance point for KC could be a tough nut to crack, given the prevailing mkt conditions. thats why thought of avg down. the other time (2 days before the fed surprise 0.75% cut), i missed the avg down boat at 10.24.  barring more dire economic news, am thinking if KC will only see better days after early/mid april, where investors go the whole nine yards for it, in view of the 30cents div + 25 cents capital distribution....


 

 





 

 

i oso wan buy kep corp but no $$

 

damn. and now i've given my other id away. argh. this is elf here.

dang....kbkbkbkkbkb. urgh. haha paiseh.

 

hi jalan_tiong, am a techie myself (tho i do pay attention to fundamentals too), so i do not really go by fixed price targets:

kepcorp MAY hit 9.7, but note that it has pinged off 10.1 the previous two times. ie, ~10.1 is the first support.

that's why i chose to vest first strike here. (note: not all vested yet).

like livermore pointed out, some counters are being dragged down in this sentiment--these counters are likely to recover fastest in a recovery. Have you seen the AR of kepcorp? that's primarily why I'm interested in this counter. solid fundamentals.

if you've just two lots left, i'd say wait and see. 11.5 is actually the resistance. if kepcorp can break it, it's uptrend. ie, you may not need to take the risk and vest the other two lots at all, since 11.5 is close to your buy px, and the intraday range of kc is quite large.

why not diversify into other counters instead?

just a suggestion yea. usual caveats apply. cheers!

PS: it's chinese new year! don't think so much about stocks! :)  

 

It's also a game of funds against funds... 

 

hee...SHORT while STOCKS last !! :D

 

Some might not even be aware that for some stocks, fund are slowing accumulating on certain stocks. It is not just one fund but 3 funds. 

 

 

Hi Jalan_Tiong,

I fully understand what AK means. What is meant is that even if a stock produces good results or going to produce good result, the share will not move up. As you know it is now reporting season for many companies. I may be wrong and overall bad market sentiment might deter any price increase even if results are good. So we shall see.

However your statement "it seems like all potential good news has already been priced in..." is not quite correct. Go take a good hard look at the valuation of some of the companies and the earnings going forward. Some companies will continue to do well even if US goes into recession.

There is so much obssession with this "whether US will go into recession" that some have failed to see value in some stocks, bearing in mind bad sentiment weighs down on everybody.

 

 

Looking at today's bar, it has frighteningly broken down below the level of the previous first bottom.

If one is expecting a double bottom to be formed, it does not look likely (but only possible, of course).

Technical readers would never have bought... for what you know, it may gap down if the Dow is negative again.. (the same applies to SGX, as the chart for SGX is eerily similar to thus one)...