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Gold going up this year?
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I'd rather avoid all the hassle by simply trading spot gold with POEMS...
The main manufacturer of Gold Bars is PAMP Suisse. Their Gold Bars are recognized worldwide and Buyers will accept them almost without any question.
As for Gold Coins, get those that are associated with the country, like British Sovereigns, American Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs, Singapore Lions, Australian Kangaroos, etc. Gold Coins have collection value and can command higher price, but only the rare ones are worth Buying.
Unfortunately, I don't know any well known Gold manufacturer in Australia. You have to do your own search.
You can Buy Gold Bars from other companies, just make sure they have a good reputation.
Yes, you can carry them with you and not pay the shipping fee.
fruitty ( Date: 14-Jun-2010 00:31) Posted:
Thanks alot, Alex!
What is meant by the manufacturer? Like, do you know where I can find them in Melbourne?
If I buy and carry them back with me during my trip from Australia, I don't have to pay on shipping fee, etc?
I'll do some checking with local goldsmith as well and if they accept silver coins and bars. |
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Thanks alot, Alex!
What is meant by the manufacturer? Like, do you know where I can find them in Melbourne?
If I buy and carry them back with me during my trip from Australia, I don't have to pay on shipping fee, etc?
I'll do some checking with local goldsmith as well and if they accept silver coins and bars.
The cheapest way to buy gold is from the manufacturer.
However, if you buy them from overseas and shipping them back to Singapore, you have to pay shipping fee, insurances and GST.
Unless you are Buying them in huge quantity, you will be paying more than getting them in here.
UOB only Buy PAMP Sussie Gold that is still in its packaging.
If you want to sell Gold, Bank is the last place you want to sell them to because they gives lousy rate and you cannot negotiate.
A better place to sell gold is to the Gold Smith.
fruitty ( Date: 12-Jun-2010 11:43) Posted:
does anyone know if it'll be cheaper to buy gold in australia and if I buy some designs that UOB does not sell, am I able to sell to the bank next time? Would the weightage and purity matter the most in gold investment?
here's a website I found for buying gold in melbourne (which I may visit this yr): http://www.ausbullion.com.au/liveprices.php. I compared it with the prices published in UOB website and it seems cheaper to get gold there.
I'm just thinking, gold is the international currency. If I have gold, I can change it into money in whichever country I'm at. However, currencies carry foreign exchange risk eg. If one day Singapore dollars weakens by alot in comparison to other countries, we will not be able to purchase much in other countries with our money. However, if I carry gold, I'll be able to convert it to the currency of the country I'm in.
Please correct me if I'm wrong. Thanks.
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does anyone know if it'll be cheaper to buy gold in australia and if I buy some designs that UOB does not sell, am I able to sell to the bank next time? Would the weightage and purity matter the most in gold investment?
here's a website I found for buying gold in melbourne (which I may visit this yr):
http://www.ausbullion.com.au/liveprices.php. I compared it with the prices published in UOB website and it seems cheaper to get gold there.
I'm just thinking, gold is the international currency. If I have gold, I can change it into money in whichever country I'm at. However, currencies carry foreign exchange risk eg. If one day Singapore dollars weakens by alot in comparison to other countries, we will not be able to purchase much in other countries with our money. However, if I carry gold, I'll be able to convert it to the currency of the country I'm in.
Please correct me if I'm wrong. Thanks.
How abt so pple will buy n push up the price...
Isolator ( Date: 10-Jun-2010 21:47) Posted:
Sometime I just dont understand why those people who forecast it to go up will want to tell everyone of this news??? They should secretly sell all their asset and even take loan to buy them at low.... then when 2012 come, they will be billionaire... What is their motive? For you think again...hmmmm...  |
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Helicopter Ben is puzzled why gold is rising (actually the dollar is falling in value) when he has ink dripping from his hand from printing dollars without end. It is like looking at the live BP oil leak video.
Bernanke Puzzled by Gold Rally
Federal Reserve Chairman
Ben Bernanke says he’s a bit puzzled by surging gold prices. The 30% rally from a year ago, on top of gains in previous years, might be interpreted as a loud signal from markets that big inflation pressures are building in the U.S. Gold is seen by many investors as a hedge against inflation risk,
In this case, it might instead be a risk against risk broadly. Mr. Bernanke notes that the inflation signal isn’t confirmed by movements in other asset classes. Yields on Treasury bonds tend to rise when investors worry about inflation, but those yields have been falling recently. Inflation expectations as measured in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) markets remain low. And other commodity prices are falling. Gold is breaking records, but copper prices are down 17% so far this year.
“I don’t fully understand movements in the gold price,” Mr. Bernanke admitted. But he suggested it might be another example of investors fleeing risky assets and flocking to assets that are perceived as less risky, not only Treasury bonds, but also ones like gold.
Sometime I just dont understand why those people who forecast it to go up will want to tell everyone of this news??? They should secretly sell all their asset and even take loan to buy them at low.... then when 2012 come, they will be billionaire... What is their motive? For you think again...hmmmm...
Gold to Reach Parabolic Top of $10,000 by 2012 – Yes, $10,000 by 2012!
* I am bullish of gold because of the ongoing currency debasement by profligate governments. At some point in time, the world is going to see a currency crisis. This will be the global monetary meltdown I have been warning about. My feeling is that by Q4 2010, it will be obvious to everyone that the world is in trouble! The sheeple will flee to gold, paper assets will collapse, famine is brewing …. world war is on the horizon! In times on extreme distress, a phase change event occurs in the price of gold. It will go parabolic!
Gold to Reach Parabolic Top of $10,000 by 2012 – Yes, $10,000 by 2012!
… As I see it gold and silver’s parabolic rise will coincide with future sovereign debt defaults, currency inflation/devaluations and rampant asset price inflation. This should happen from mid 2011 thru 2012 with gold reaching a parabolic top of $10,000.
….
THE CAUSES
1. No History of Consequence
Gold has only been trading unencumbered from backing fiat currencies since Nixon’s 1971 decision to stiff the French, etc. when trying to repatriate their paper dollars for the metal. As such, there is little history of consequence (of value) to measure market action.
2. Market Manipulation
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently held a major hearing which blew the doors off the bullion metals trading markets – the “sleeper” which I predict will be viewed retrospectively as the gold price liberation event.
We all knew JP Morgan Chase had been manipulating the metals markets on behalf of the FED and other central banks and this event proved it! The hearing (specifically Jeff Christensen’s statements) inadvertently confirmed that trading has been occurring using naked shorts/no hedging and that there was little bullion (only about one ounce of metal for 100 ounces of a trade) backing up such trades should the holders ask for it rather than cash or roll their futures into other futures paper. This revelation was much worse than even critics, such as the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), had expected.
3. Insufficient Physical Inventories
It seems that the Asian and Mid East buyers and owners of bullion have been removing gold from the “normal” bank and bullion dealers vaults and taking it “home” thus leaving much less than previously thought in the London and New York and Toronto vaults. A case in point is that of a major metals investor in Toronto who finally got to view his stash of metal in the Scotia Macotta vault and noted that there wasn’t nearly enough metal to back up his certificates, even though he was paying storage and all kinds of other fees on his metal.
The above begs the question: “Do these large ETF bullion funds actually have any or much bullion at all?” The answer is clearly that they do not and that, in the near future, when some serious speculators from Asia, Russia and the mid-East get their acts together, they will force the issue.
THE EFFECT
The revelation that there is insufficient physical inventory to meet this new demand for physical ownership of the actual bullion (i.e. show me the money!) is about to blow the price lid skyward.
$10,000 per ounce by 2012
This should happen from mid 2011 thru 2012 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a US $10,000 per ounce top during this period!
The 2008/2009 crash originated with the financial institutions which governments bailed out. This time there is no institution – certainly not the IMF – to bail out the governments. Gold and silver metals and mining shares (the new Homestakes) will be the clear winners.
Conclusion
Call me nuts; assume I do too much reading; assume I don’t have access to appropriate reality checks; assume what you want – but I am increasingly confident that the fundamental realities of fragile sovereign debt, market manipulation, insufficient physical supply and the need for a safe haven investment refuge, will drive precious metals particularly, and commodities generally, dramatically higher in the not too distant future. Get yourself positioned to take advantage of this once in a lifetime ride.
Woweeeeee!!!!! $$$$$$
PRECIOUS-Gold firms near all time high; SPDR hits record
June 9 (Reuters) - Gold firmed on Wednesday,
hovering within sight of a record above $1,250 an ounce struck
the previous day as investors bought the metal on worries the
euro zone credit contagion could hurt global economic growth.
FUNDAMENTALS
* Spot gold XAU= was at $1,237.50 an ounce by 0057 GMT,
up $3.87 from New York's notional close on Tuesday, when it
rose as high as $1,251.20.
* Gold, up around 12 percent so far in the latest quarter,
is benefiting from fears the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis
may spread, weighing on global economic recovery.
* The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund,
SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings rose to a record high at
1,298.530 tonnes as of June 8, from 1,286.359 tonnes as of June
4. [GOL/SPDR]
* U.S. gold futures for August delivery GCQ0 fell $6.5 an
ounce to $1,237.5 an ounce after hitting an all time high the
previous day.
* Gold priced in euros XAUEUR=R and Australian dollars
XAUAUD=R also held near records.
MARKET NEWS
* The euro remained fragile on Wednesday, although it held
above a recent four-year low against the dollar, and
higher-risk currencies such as the Australian dollar gave back
gains as Asian share markets fell. [USD/]
* U.S. crude futures extended gains on Wednesday to above
$72 a barrel after industry data showed U.S. crude stocks fell
much more than expected last week. [O/R]
* The Nikkei average fell 0.7 percent on Wednesday, moving
towards a six-month low, hurt by jittery sentiment in financlal
markets, although U.S. stocks mostly rose in volatile trading
on gains in materials and financial shares. [.T] [.N]
DATA EVENTS
The following data is expected on Wednesday ECON:
- U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies (1400 GMT)
- U.S. mortgage index, weekly (1100 GMT)
- U.S. wholesale inventories, April (1400 GMT)
- U.S. Fed beige book (1800 GMT)
RELATED NEWS > Big U.S. banks angle for 'Volcker rule'
exemption [nN08264817] > Japan core machinery orders rise 4%,
beat f'csts
[nTOE65700Y] > EU ministers eye austerity, Spanish strike on
cuts[nLDE6570P8] > US Senate jobs bill would hike fund manager
tax [nN08259039] > EIA lowers world 2010 oil demand on Europe
crisis [nN08265325] > Amid gloom, some bulls roam Wall Street
[nN08266456] > IMF work to focus on fiscal strains,
vote reform [nN0878350] > US consumer confidence deteriorates
in June-IBD [nNLL8HE65U] > UK shop price inflation eases to
1.8% in May-BRC [nLDE6570T7] > Britain begins painful gov't
spending review [nLDE6571XK]
Precious metals prices at 0057 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg
Turnover
Spot Gold 1237.50 3.87 +0.31 12.94
Spot Silver 18.27 0.08 +0.44 8.56
Spot Platinum 1517.75 -7.75 -0.51 3.46
Spot Palladium 442.25 2.75 +0.63 9.06
TOCOM Gold 3644.00 -18.00 -0.49 11.81
27299
TOCOM Platinum 4487.00 -41.00 -0.91 2.42
8552
TOCOM Silver 54.40 0.40 +0.74 5.22
264
TOCOM Palladium 1311.00 28.00 +2.18 12.53
262
Euro/Dollar 1.1935
Dollar/Yen 91.32
TOCOM prices in yen per gram. Spot prices in $ per ounce.
(Reporting by Lewa Pardomuan; Editing by Michael Urquhart)
You can simplify your life a lot by simply trading spot gold with POEMS futures...

niuyear ( Date: 04-Jun-2010 16:22) Posted:
haha! where got so rich to buy gold bars. am holidng only the GLD shares when $98, thrill to see it rocketing up.
ozone2002 ( Date: 03-Jun-2010 17:54) Posted:
will definitely announce when i sell my gold bars...........
u interested to buy? :) |
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Perth Mint Says Gold Sales to Europe Jump on Crisis! Deutsche Bank’s Lewis Says Gold May Rise To $1,700/oz On Debt Crisis! Krugerrand Output Jumps to 25-Year High on European Debt Crisis!
* Whatever the MSM propaganda against gold, it is the premier currency. Gold is not just another investment class. It is money and has been so for 5000+ years. In times of war and economic turmoil, gold beats all other fiat currencies hands down! The Europeans are waking up to this fact. The rest of the world is still pretty much asleep.
Gold Sales to Europe Jump on Crisis, Perth Mint Says
June 4 (Bloomberg) — Gold sales to Europe from the Perth Mint surged in May as the Greek sovereign-debt crisis triggered a flight to haven investments, draining stockpiles at the producer of 6 percent of the world’s bullion.
Buyers from the continent accounted for 69 percent of gold- coin purchases last month compared with 51 percent a year ago, said Ron Currie, sales and marketing director. Individual German investors also bought silver, seeking to protect their wealth with “poor man’s gold,” Currie said from Western Australia.
Greece’s fiscal crisis roiled financial markets worldwide, driving the euro lower. Gold reached a record in May as sovereign-debt risks escalated. The mint is working at full capacity with 20 percent more staff than a year ago, Currie said.
Deutsche Bank’s Lewis Says Gold May Rally Past Record on Crisis
June 4 (Bloomberg) — Gold, which touched a record of $1,249.70 last month, may rally another 36 percent as Asian central banks buy for the first time in two decades, said Michael Lewis, head of commodities research at Deutsche Bank AG.
The precious metal may rise to as much as $1,700 an ounce over the next year on concerns that budget deficits will weaken major currencies, Lewis said in an interview yesterday in Lima. Exchange-Traded Funds, known as ETFs, where gold futures make up 80 percent, are also having an “enormous impact,” he said.
Krugerrand Output Jumps to 25-Year High on European Debt Crisis
June 3 (Bloomberg) — Rand Refinery Ltd., the world’s largest gold-smelting facility, raised production of Krugerrand coins to a 25-year high as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis boosted investor demand for bullion.
Output last week jumped 50 percent to 30,000 ounces of blank coins for minting by SA Mint, Debra Thomson, Rand Refinery’s treasurer, said by telephone from Johannesburg today. That was the highest weekly production since 1985, she said.
…..
“We’re seeing higher demand for gold because of the sovereign-debt crisis in Europe and the depreciation of the euro,” said Thomson. “People are looking for gold as a safe haven.”
Customer demand was strong enough to constitute “panic buying,” Muenze Oesterreich AG, the Austrian mint that makes the best-selling gold coin in Europe and Japan, said on May 12. Bullion is heading for a 10th annual climb in a row.
haha! where got so rich to buy gold bars. am holidng only the GLD shares when $98, thrill to see it rocketing up.
ozone2002 ( Date: 03-Jun-2010 17:54) Posted:
will definitely announce when i sell my gold bars...........
u interested to buy? :) |
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UNITED STATES MINT
American Eagle Silver Proof Coins
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Production of United States Mint American Eagle Silver Proof and Uncirculated Coins has been temporarily suspended because of unprecedented demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins. Currently, all available silver bullion blanks are being allocated to the American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Program, as the United States Mint is required by Public Law 99-61 to produce these coins “in quantities sufficient to meet public demand . . . .”
The United States Mint will resume the American Eagle Silver Proof and Uncirculated Coin Programs once sufficient inventories of silver bullion blanks can be acquired to meet market demand for all three American Eagle Silver Coin products.
Update: Due to the continued, sustained demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins, 2009-dated American Eagle Silver Proof Coins will not be produced |
will definitely announce when i sell my gold bars...........
u interested to buy? :)
2500.......not too far
Am still holding my gold shares. Kindly update if you are selling your gold bars. tks. :)
I agree wholeheartedly with David Rosenberg about gold’s future. Mr. Rosenberg is a well respected economist and should not be catergorized as a gold bug
Gold $2,500 Looks More Likely Than Ever
Gold added another $11.30 Tuesday to hit
$1,226 an ounce, and although the yellow metal is still well off its nominal all-time high of about $1,240 set just a few weeks ago, you don’t have to be a member of the build-a-bunker-in-Montana crowd to believe gold could hit $2,500 in the next couple of years.
David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Canada’s
Gluskin Sheff, tends to be pretty bearish, but he’s also about as dispassionate and data-driven a guy as you can find. In other words, he’s hardly some kooky gold bug. And if past relationships among data sets hold up, gold fever is just getting started, Rosenberg says.
“There is no doubt that when benchmarked against the CPI, money supply and GDP, gold can easily double from here,” Rosenberg told clients in a Tuesday report. “Demand is always difficult to forecast, especially for jewelry, but we do know that central banks have very deep pockets and bought more gold last year (425 tons) than at any other time since 1964.”
A Simple Matter of Supply and Demand
Which brings us to the issue of stagnant supply, and that too favors a sustained bull market in gold, Rosenberg says. Global mined production of the ductile metal hasn’t increased in a decade — and has actually declined outright in five of the past eight years. Furthermore, almost all the gold that’s easy to dig up — and therefore cheaper to get at — has been unearthed. Gold companies in South Africa have to drill as much as 2.3 miles to get to new deposits. Meanwhile, all Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has to do to create currency “is press a button,” Rosenberg says.
“What makes gold different is that, unlike paper money backed by the good word of the government, it has withstood the test of time for thousands of years,” Rosenberg writes. “It is not the liability of any government. It has an inelastic supply curve. How many times is gold mentioned in the Old Testament? Try 391 times. How many times is paper currency mentioned from Noah, to Abraham, to Moses? None. Nada. Efes. Gornisht. Nihil. Rien. Nichts. Niente.”

Some strong technical forces also
bode well for the long-term trajectory of the price of gold, as
DailyFinance’s Charles Hugh Smith wrote recently. For better or worse, gold does double duty as a safe haven in times of volatility and as a hedge against inflation. Anxiety is gold’s friend, and for that reason its future gleams bright — at least until the next global financial panic scares the punters out.
Gold Trade: Not as Crowded As You Think
Perhaps most interesting, this is the time of year when gold prices are supposed to be in decline — at least until demand picks up again in September for India’s wedding season. (India is the world’s largest consumer of gold.) Furthermore, lest we forget, gold is priced in dollars, which means that as the greenback rises (
and it’s been shooting higher for months), gold is supposed to fall. But neither of those relationships is holding up much these days.
“We have not experienced the typical gold price and related equity weakness that the charts depict should happen, at least not yet,” wrote Haytham Hodaly and David West, analysts at
Salman Partners, in a Tuesday report to clients. “Although the European economic uncertainty has caused many currency investors to speculate positions out of the euro, it has also proven a positive for gold…with only short-term weakness despite the U.S. dollar strength.”
Lastly, let’s not overlook market sentiment. Perhaps the best case for being a gold bull these days is made by the horde of bears drawn to the scent of the seemingly overripe state of the yellow metal. As Rosenberg says: “Bulls need skeptics — there is nothing worse than universal beliefs as they lead to overcrowded trades.”
always like to pull up this thread to see how popular gold is..
looks like it's still unpopular... which means buy buy buy indicator for me..
when this topic becomes popular ..it's a big indicator for me to SELL SELL SELL

Liberty Gold Coin
The Austrians, Germans, Greeks and many Europeans are waking up.
They are rushing to buy physical gold to protect themselves from the
ongoing Euro currency crisis! The
Wall Street Journal:
… British gold sovereigns once
again are the foreign currency of choice in Greece. Once again, too,
they are offering a tangible sense of security amid turbulent
uncertainty. In the 1940s, as the only reliable currency available,
much of it was hoarded in trunks, under floorboards and buried in
gardens. Any respectable girl’s dowry included a cache of sovereigns.
Now they are being used as a physical hedge against fears that Greece
may leave the euro zone. For weeks buyers have been queuing patiently
in the central bank’s main downtown Athens office, prepared to shell
out nearly €273 ($409) per piece, up from €243 at the start of May and
€180 last July. Persistent worries that Greece could default at least
partly on its debts are emptying the Bank of Greece’s vaults of at
least 700 gold coins a day, giving a whole new meaning to the term
sovereign debt.
“The public’s renewed interest in sovereigns as an asset started with
the collapse of Lehman Brothers,” the daily Kathimerini newspaper
wrote. Central bank officials estimate that while Greek demand for the
distinctive bullion has been rising by 10 per cent a year since 2008,
its price has been soaring by more than 50 per cent.
Greeks’ uncertainty about their future has manifested itself more
dramatically in a series of strikes and riots. The markets have been
jittery, too, something unlikely to have been eased by remarks last
night by Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the International
Monetary Fund, who said: “The markets are wondering if Greece will be
able to repay its debt or not.
“Given the behaviour of Greek governments in the past, their
uncertainties are understandable.” Sovereigns remained legal tender
amid an unstable drachma until 1965, when the Greek government placed
restrictions on their trading. Many hoarders cashed in their stocks,
although street vendors near the Athens Stock Exchange continued to do
a brisk trade in the coins.
The growing run on the bullion sovereign has spawned a thriving black
market: in addition to about 50,000 sold legally by the Bank of Greece
in the first four months of this year, officials estimate that at least
100,000 have changed hands on the black market at prices of up to €300
Gold Rising as Euro Weakens Spurs More Speculation (Update2)
By Nicholas Larkin, Claudia Carpenter and Millie Munshi
May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Speculators are buying gold faster
than the world’s biggest producers can mine it as analysts
forecast a 27 percent rally that may extend the longest run of
annual gains since at least 1920.
Exchange-traded products backed by bullion added 41.7
metric tons in the week to May 14, the most in 14 months, data
from UBS AG show. China, Australia and the 15 other largest
mining nations averaged weekly output of 41.6 tons last year,
researcher GFMS Ltd. estimates. Even though prices have fallen
5.1 percent to $1,185.30 from a record $1,249.40 an ounce May
14, the median in a Bloomberg survey of 23 traders, analysts and
investors shows it will reach $1,500 by the end of the year.
Buying accelerated as the MSCI World Index of 23 developed
nations’
stocks tumbled as much as 16 percent since mid-April
and the euro weakened to a four-year low against the dollar.
Holders of ETPs, including
George Soros and
John Paulson,
accumulated a record 1,938 tons by May 21, eclipsing all but
four of the biggest central-bank holdings.
“You could see gold go up another $1,000,” said
Evan
Smith, who helps manage $2 billion at U.S. Global Investors Inc.
in San Antonio and in 2006 correctly predicted that gold would
reach $700 within two years. “All of the turmoil and problems
we’ve seen in Europe is just another reminder that there’s a lot
of value in gold as a safe haven.”
The risk to gold bulls lies in economic growth, which
should buoy the prospects of metals linked to industrial demand,
such as copper and
silver. The world economy will expand 4.2
percent this year, the International Monetary Fund said April
21, raising its January projection from 3.9 percent.
Industrial Metals
Astor Asset Management LLC, with $520 million under
management, held as much as 10 percent of its assets in the SPDR
Gold Trust, the biggest ETP backed by bullion, according to
Bryan Novak, managing director of the Chicago-based company. The
firm sold the stake in the first quarter.
China, the biggest consumer of industrial metals, will
expand 10.1 percent this year, more than three times the pace of
the U.S.’s anticipated 3.2 percent gain, according to as many as
77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
“The feeling now is as we move into the expansion phase of
economic growth, we want to be diversified in economically
sensitive metals,” Novak said. “We’re not negative on the
economy now.”
‘Afraid of Debasement’
While gold is favored by investors when the dollar weakens
and inflation gains, the metal can also advance at other times.
Gold rose 5.8 percent in 2008 as U.S. consumer prices gained 0.1
percent. The metal added 18 percent in 2005 when the
U.S. Dollar
Index, a measure against six counterparts, advanced 13 percent.
Gold rose 8 percent this year as the U.S. Dollar Index jumped 11
percent. U.S. consumer prices dropped in April.
“People are afraid of the debasement of all the
currencies,” said
Peter Schiff, president and chief global
strategist for Darien, Connecticut-based Euro Pacific Capital,
whose clients have more than $2 billion in assets. “What’s
surprising is that gold is still as low as it is,” he said,
predicting $5,000 to $10,000 an ounce in the next five to 10
years.
Since the last week of April, ETPs have been adding bullion
at a pace not seen since the first quarter of 2009, in the wake
of the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Buying rose as
European policymakers agreed on an almost $1 trillion emergency
loan package to prevent sovereign defaults.
Half the Peak
Assets in gold-backed products increased 18.3 tons last
week, according to UBS data. The bank revised its estimate for
the previous week’s holdings.
Gold is still at half the peak set in 1980, after adjusting
for inflation. Then, prices rose to $850, equal to $2,266 today,
according to a calculator on the website of the Federal Reserve
Bank of Minneapolis.
Supply from mines, which peaked in 2001, fell in five of
the last eight years, data from London-based GFMS show.
Companies are digging deeper to extract dwindling reserves, with
mines in South Africa extending as far as 2.35 miles (3.8
kilometers) down.
Investment, including bars and coins, almost doubled to
1,901 tons last year, exceeding jewelry demand for the first
time in three decades, according to GFMS. Jewelry will jump 19
percent to 2,100 tons this year and industrial use 8 percent to
398 tons, Sydney-based Macquarie Group Ltd. says.
Central Banks
Muenze Oesterreich AG, the Vienna-based mint that makes the
Philharmonic, the best-selling gold coin in Europe and Japan, on
May 12 said it had sold 243,500 ounces since April 26, more than
the 205,300 ounces sold in the entire first quarter.
Central banks and governments are also buying gold, adding
425.4 tons last year, for a combined 30,116.9 tons, the most
since 1964 and the first expansion since 1988, data from the
World Gold Council show.
Official reserves of central banks and
governments may expand by another 192 to 289 tons this year,
according to CPM Group, a research and asset-management company
in New York.
The
net-long position in Comex futures, or bets on higher
prices, is within 13 percent of the record reached in November,
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The most
widely held option gives owners the right to buy gold at $1,500
an ounce by December, data from the bourse in New York show.
Economists’ outlook may be too rosy, said
Michael Pento,
chief economist at Delta Global Advisors in Holmdel, New Jersey,
who correctly predicted the 2008 commodity collapse. Some
investors judge that a debt crisis in Greece may spread
elsewhere in the euro zone, including Spain and Portugal.
Billionaire Managers
“The second half of this year will likely show very anemic
growth on a global basis,” he said. “The crisis in Greece is
going to spread to Spain and it’s going to be very difficult to
deal with. They are bailing out debt with more debt and it isn’t
sustainable. It’s a wonderful scenario for gold.”
Billionaire John Paulson’s New York-based Paulson & Co.
hedge fund is the SPDR gold trust’s
biggest investor, with 31.5
million shares, or about 96 tons, a May 17 regulatory filing
showed.
Kyle Bass, the head of Dallas-based Hayman Advisors LP
who made $500 million in 2007 on the U.S. subprime collapse,
bought gold this month, according to a letter to clients.
Buying at the start of a bubble is “rational,” Soros said
in January. His New York-based Soros Fund Management LLC was the
sixth-biggest investor in the SPDR fund in the first quarter, a
May 17 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission shows.
He trimmed his holding by 9.6 percent from the previous quarter.
“People still want a store of wealth,” said
Andrew Karsh,
co-manager of funds for the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return
Strategy team. “A lot of the fundamentals are still in place.”