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Half year dividend of 17.5cts will be paid on 10 Sept, xd on 23 Aug.
good move... should have large price action soon. One month of waiting. a bit longer than i expected.. lol
cheongsl ( Date: 27-Jun-2012 18:17) Posted:
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divident yield 5% does not indicated divident drop, it can also be share price increase. At current divident of 2.75cts halfyearly, if divident yield is 5% implies it share price will be at around $1.1. 5% is not attractive as it is in par with the inflation.
Eg. like capitamall trust it is trading at 1.845, but the divident quarterly is around 2.3cts., which is only 4.98% yield, thus it is really not that attractive to me.
For MIIF, it is closed at 54cts today, the yield is still around 10.19%, thus it is still attractive to me.
CrazGreed ( Date: 27-Jun-2012 14:02) Posted:
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so you think MIIF dividend yield will drop to 5%? enlighten please...
cheongsl ( Date: 27-Jun-2012 12:22) Posted:
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All Reits are showing good, as people are going into a more defensive portfolio to whether the Euro rain. But when the % divident yield drop to around 5% it might not be as attractive in defensive then other normal share.
CrazGreed ( Date: 26-Jun-2012 13:01) Posted:
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looking good :)
Please drop further...dump more... I am impatiently waiting... 
I believe they are also waiting for their huanan revenue, before making any further decision on the share buyback. As it is already implemented in 1June2012.
based on the news Hua Nan phase I seems to be one of the most expensive expressway, and the reduction is the most compare to other expressway but understand that not all route the price drop. As based on one of the news report for Hua Nan phase I 140type toll charges, 114 type decline, 13 type remain the same and 13 type raised after the new implementation.
Whether will more car transfer from the free expressway to the toll charges expressway after the change in pricing still need to watch.
Hunter2011 ( Date: 04-Jun-2012 23:09) Posted:
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source is here (Source: MIIF:Assured 2.75Scts semi-dividend but forward dividend remains a question (NRA))
should be from broker report.. but not able to verify... just visit SGX website and found MIIF last buy back is on 21/05/2012..
nope... how reliable is your source?
Anyone know MIIF to suspend share buyback ?
" Management will advise on dividend for
the six months ending 31 Dec 2012 and suspend share buyback mandate pending
clarity on the impact of the tolling revision on HNE operations."
(Source: MIIF:Assured 2.75Scts semi-dividend but forward dividend remains a question (NRA))
DBSV forecast dividend reduced to 5c in FY13/14..
" We reckon MIIF could choose to smoothen out distributions in FY13/14 to 5.0Scts in the worst-case scenario, which would still imply a yield of more than 9%. "
(Source: MIIF: Toll rate cut overhang removed )
Price always overreact so it may gives us a good chance to bottom fishing.
Management has said that they will maintain the next half-yearly dividend no change at 27.5 cents, I think dividend after that will be an important factor affecting the price.
may be someone want to buy back at even cheAPER price....the traffic volume should go up... car ownerships going up...dont think the demand will go down too, unless there is alternating route which is cheaper and much convenient.
One can either wait or start accumulating now. Most of the profit generating portfolio is TBC... not the cheap china expressway... :)
Hi
Cheongsl,
I
agreed with this
" For the basic economic theory, the price
decrease the demand should be increase. "
but
the real fact need to wait till they release the financial results.
Somehow
you point actually valid, see Q12012 result presentation under HNE outlook (page
17/35)
“Guanghe
Expressway, is anticipated to remain a significant traffic volume driver for
HNE in 2012. In addition, HNE is expected to continue benefiting from continued
growth in car ownership in the region”
Now they tell the difference
story. Really can't trust ...
cheongsl ( Date: 01-Jun-2012 12:06) Posted:
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Dear hunter,
Noted, but as per previous posting I don't trust what company say, it is true that they have the best knowledge. And we do not know the intention, that is why my analysis is always based on figure, which is being audit by third party, and also common knowledge. As pre previous posting, the revenue have being continously increase for years. Thus the demand should be a upward. For the basic economic theory, the price decrease the demand should be increase. Thus I don't see why the estimation should show more then 20% decline in revenue.
Hunter2011 ( Date: 01-Jun-2012 07:11) Posted:
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Bro, below not a report, in fact is MIIF
formal SGX announcement where the link in here (TOLL REVISIONS AFFECTING HUA NAN EXPRESSWAY).
MIIF management should be in best position to estimate the financial impact.
This report seems to be slightly strange, as HNE 1 the toll rate reduce by 20%, HNE 2 toll rate did not reduce, slip road is just a short road giving access to the expressway usually 10~30m and some longer one maybe only 100m, and huanan expressway is 31km, thus slip road contributed to insinificant portion of the toll. price vs demand theory. Price reduce demand should be increase. But based on MIIF annoucement price reduce, demand will also reduce, as price reduce by 20% for part of the road and the revenue will drop by 20~25%, here they are talking about revenue and not EBITDA. Thus their estimate seems very strange, and based on 2011 to 2012 record, the revenue for huanan increase by 12.6%. From 2010 to 2011 the revenue increase by 22.2%. The demand for the expressway show a uptrend for the pass two years, why is it that after implement the change in toll rate the demand will drop? Is it that previously they charge to low, compare to other expressway?
Hunter2011 ( Date: 31-May-2012 09:53) Posted:
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So has the price drop to 0.53 today enough to factor this reduction of income?
Singapore, 31 May 2012 – Further to the disclosure made on 22 February 2012, Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund Limited (MIIF) today announced that Hua Nan Expressway (HNE) has received notification from the Guangdong Transport Bureau and the Guangdong Price Bureau that the toll rate and toll mechanism used to calculate tolls on all highways in Guangdong Province, including HNE, will be standardised from 1 June 2012.
MIIF has an 81 per cent interest in HNE which operates under a concession that expires in 2026.
The notification states that toll roads with six or more lanes such as HNE are instructed to charge tolls based on a rate of RMB0.60/km. As a result, the toll rate for HNE Phase 1 will be reduced from an average rate of RMB0.75/km to RMB0.60/km. The toll on HNE Phase 2 will not be affected as it currently charges a rate of RMB0.60/km.
The notification also requires a change in the methodology used to calculate the length of slip roads1. The change effectively reduces the toll-able distance of slip roads and will affect both HNE Phase 1 and Phase 2.
The tolling revisions will have an adverse impact on HNE, with revenues estimated to be reduced by approximately 20 to 25 per cent based on current traffic levels.
HNE has been operating strictly in accordance with its legally binding contract with the Guangdong Provincial Government (Government) and charging approved toll rates in accordance with applicable laws. Accordingly HNE has reserved its rights in relation to the changes and will pursue all available options to seek a favourable resolution on this matter. Discussions with the Government are on-going and it is currently not clear what impact the toll revisions will have on the valuation of HNE
Dividend Guidance
MIIF is issuing a dividend guidance of 2.75 cents per share (cps) for the six months to 30 June 2012. The semi-annual dividend will be fully covered by the income that MIIF will receive from its businesses this year in respect of 2011 earnings.
MIIF will release further guidance on future dividends once the impact of the toll revisions on HNE is fully assessed.
MIIF has an 81 per cent interest in HNE which operates under a concession that expires in 2026.
The notification states that toll roads with six or more lanes such as HNE are instructed to charge tolls based on a rate of RMB0.60/km. As a result, the toll rate for HNE Phase 1 will be reduced from an average rate of RMB0.75/km to RMB0.60/km. The toll on HNE Phase 2 will not be affected as it currently charges a rate of RMB0.60/km.
The notification also requires a change in the methodology used to calculate the length of slip roads1. The change effectively reduces the toll-able distance of slip roads and will affect both HNE Phase 1 and Phase 2.
The tolling revisions will have an adverse impact on HNE, with revenues estimated to be reduced by approximately 20 to 25 per cent based on current traffic levels.
HNE has been operating strictly in accordance with its legally binding contract with the Guangdong Provincial Government (Government) and charging approved toll rates in accordance with applicable laws. Accordingly HNE has reserved its rights in relation to the changes and will pursue all available options to seek a favourable resolution on this matter. Discussions with the Government are on-going and it is currently not clear what impact the toll revisions will have on the valuation of HNE
Dividend Guidance
MIIF is issuing a dividend guidance of 2.75 cents per share (cps) for the six months to 30 June 2012. The semi-annual dividend will be fully covered by the income that MIIF will receive from its businesses this year in respect of 2011 earnings.
MIIF will release further guidance on future dividends once the impact of the toll revisions on HNE is fully assessed.