Vard   

Vard Holdings

Profit warning can come any time. They have an option to issue or not to issue. I read all the comment here. Quite a fair bit of speculator here.

There are 3 costs that you need to know which has happen and can continue for some time.
1. One time whole impairment of N yard

2. Initial high startup cost for P yard.here wont be tjis cost amymore but now P yard is open, we wont know what the situation is like for labour skill n turnover. If it mirror N yard, you sld know what happen

3. High subcontrat for hull. There are 2 more Lpg hull that is sub out to 3rd party. Cost will definately be reflect in the next 2Q. The rest of the hull will be built inhouse. But we wont know if they have the skill mention in pt 2 for Lpg vsl. For the europe yard definately no prob.

So i can say that this is a head n tail situation. Price of 0.85 wont stay here long.
If u think situation will get better,easier abv 1.2. If situation persist easily below 0.8.
Place ur bet now!

darkknight      ( Date: 22-Oct-2013 22:35) Posted: Any reason why there  might be a profit warning  of  Vard haa already  incurred the $70M  Brazil impairment in Q2? sean123      ( Date: 22-Oct-2013 21:06) Posted: If there is no profit guideline on Thursday morning (2 weeks time before the report out on Nov 6), then the worst is over and Vard can fly... Last time the profit guideline was issued exactly 2 weeks before the report released.  I am taking the bet and collected 50 lots earlier.

 

That would be nice Xmas present this year lol

WanSiTong      ( Date: 22-Oct-2013 11:15) Posted: Hopefully One more new contract plus good financial  results will push the price to $1.20 by 2 Dec.......Lol Name Listing Date    Expiry / Closing Date    Conversion Ratio Exercise Price Outstanding Bal VARD HOLDINGS MBECW131202 29 Apr 2013 02 Dec 2013 2.50000 1.20000 80,000,000

 

Totally agreed, it did fell from its takeover price of 1.2 to 86 cents now. Market is not always perfect and efficient in pricing all the factors, but these issues has been around far too long not to be priced in. Just sit back and enjoy the show.

oldflyingfox      ( Date: 22-Oct-2013 23:20) Posted: All these should have already factored into the share price long time ago.

 

All these should have already factored into the share price long time ago.

 

Didnt they mentioned that costs overrun will carry on until the last vessel is delivered at that niteroi yard or something?

last vessel is until late 2014 or 2015 if i remember correctly?

 

Any reason why there  might be a profit warning  of  Vard haa already  incurred the $70M  Brazil impairment in Q2?

sean123      ( Date: 22-Oct-2013 21:06) Posted: If there is no profit guideline on Thursday morning (2 weeks time before the report out on Nov 6), then the worst is over and Vard can fly... Last time the profit guideline was issued exactly 2 weeks before the report released.  I am taking the bet and collected 50 lots earlier.

 

If there is no profit guideline on Thursday morning (2 weeks time before the report out on Nov 6), then the worst is over and Vard can fly...

Last time the profit guideline was issued exactly 2 weeks before the report released. 

I am taking the bet and collected 50 lots earlier.  

 

It seems this will be rebounding soon.

 

Hopefully One more new contract plus good financial  results will push the price to $1.20 by 2 Dec.......Lol

Name	Listing Date	Expiry / Closing Date	Conversion Ratio	Exercise Price	Outstanding Bal

VARD HOLDINGS MBECW131202

29 Apr 2013

02 Dec 2013

2.50000

1.20000

80,000,000

 

 

the perceived global recovery should support stocks like vard.... happy trading...

 

oh i see. Thanks for the info.

WanSiTong      ( Date: 22-Oct-2013 10:28) Posted: If a Co issues a  Profit Guidance before the Quarterly announcement, it means  profit  of the Co will be very poor or from profit to loss. leewankiat      ( Date: 22-Oct-2013 10:23) Posted: I am new to investment....No profit guidance means good news?

 

If a Co issues a  Profit Guidance before the Quarterly announcement, it means  profit  of the Co will be very poor or from profit to loss.

leewankiat      ( Date: 22-Oct-2013 10:23) Posted: I am new to investment....No profit guidance means good news?

 

I am new to investment....No profit guidance means good news?

 

Heng heng no profit guidance ..........Huat arh...

 

Dividend at 2.5 cts is pretty decent for a 82 - 83 cts share beside a chance for capital gain too.

SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 21-Oct-2013 23:23) Posted: Thanks.. Anyway, I doubt there will be dividend payout this year. Even if there is, it should be at most 2.5 cents, in my opinion.. lglg666      ( Date: 21-Oct-2013 22:05) Posted: Thanks bro for sharing....looking to vest soo

 

Thanks.. Anyway, I doubt there will be dividend payout this year. Even if there is, it should be at most 2.5 cents, in my opinion..

lglg666      ( Date: 21-Oct-2013 22:05) Posted: Thanks bro for sharing....looking to vest soon SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 21-Oct-2013 17:54) Posted: The ascending triangle pattern has failed on 7th October 2013 when it closes at 0.84. From the price movement as seen from chart, the pattern now seems to resemble a double bottom reversal with resistance at 0.99. That is provided if results are within expectations or better. Therefore, for people buying on purely capital gain basis, it is akin to gambling on 3Q results. As for me, I am  buying for dividend yield as when earnings recover in 2014 and 2015, and based on 30% dividend payout, I myself forecast an average annual dividend payout  of around 7-8 cents  in the near future to come which equates to ~9% dividend yield. I  may also sell some of my lots whenever there's profit to take for I would want to use some of the money to diversify my portfolio with other good counters also. My own technical indicators for Vard shows that now is a good time to buy, with immediate support placed at 0.82 - 0.83 and worst-case support at 0.805. Please always do your own due diligence. Good luck to all!

 

Thanks bro for sharing....looking to vest soon

SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 21-Oct-2013 17:54) Posted: The ascending triangle pattern has failed on 7th October 2013 when it closes at 0.84. From the price movement as seen from chart, the pattern now seems to resemble a double bottom reversal with resistance at 0.99. That is provided if results are within expectations or better. Therefore, for people buying on purely capital gain basis, it is akin to gambling on 3Q results. As for me, I am  buying for dividend yield as when earnings recover in 2014 and 2015, and based on 30% dividend payout, I myself forecast an average annual dividend payout  of around 7-8 cents  in the near future to come which equates to ~9% dividend yield. I  may also sell some of my lots whenever there's profit to take for I would want to use some of the money to diversify my portfolio with other good counters also. My own technical indicators for Vard shows that now is a good time to buy, with immediate support placed at 0.82 - 0.83 and worst-case support at 0.805. Please always do your own due diligence. Good luck to all!! SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 28-Sep-2013 00:54) Posted: The big teddy bear at 0.99 is indeed a powerful one which eventually forces the MACD to crossover downwards it's signal on 20th of September, the same day also which Mitsubishi unloaded about 500 lots of Vard. This is the only reason I can think of for the negative sentiments and sell-down these recent days. Interestingly, I thought for Wed and Thursday, I can see a " sponge" keep absorbing all the sell-down shares at 0.905, therefore, it is quite weird that for today, the price actually drops lower and with a higher volume. Technically, the MACD is showing bearish divergence. But as long as the ascending triangle pattern still holds true, worst-case scenario support should be at around 0.85 - 0.865, in my opinion, after which it should test 0.99 again, then drops slightly again, then rise again to eventually break the 0.99, which should coincide with the period during which Vard's 3Q results are released (provided that it is good). 3rd Q results should most probably determine whether Vard can break 0.99, after which it should sail all the way smoothly back to at least 1.22 and above. For those people who wishes to average down, can do so when the MACD shows signs of converging and clear support of price level is seen or price trending higher. Above is just my own opinion and observation. Do your own due diligence. Thanks..

 

The ascending triangle pattern has failed on 7th October 2013 when it closes at 0.84. From the price movement as seen from chart, the pattern now seems to resemble a double bottom reversal with resistance at 0.99. That is provided if results are within expectations or better. Therefore, for people buying on purely capital gain basis, it is akin to gambling on 3Q results. As for me, I am  buying for dividend yield as when earnings recover in 2014 and 2015, and based on 30% dividend payout, I myself forecast an average annual dividend payout  of around 7-8 cents  in the near future to come which equates to ~9% dividend yield. I  may also sell some of my lots whenever there's profit to take for I would want to use some of the money to diversify my portfolio with other good counters also.

My own technical indicators for Vard shows that now is a good time to buy, with immediate support placed at 0.82 - 0.83 and worst-case support at 0.805. Please always do your own due diligence. Good luck to all!!

SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 28-Sep-2013 00:54) Posted: The big teddy bear at 0.99 is indeed a powerful one which eventually forces the MACD to crossover downwards it's signal on 20th of September, the same day also which Mitsubishi unloaded about 500 lots of Vard. This is the only reason I can think of for the negative sentiments and sell-down these recent days. Interestingly, I thought for Wed and Thursday, I can see a " sponge" keep absorbing all the sell-down shares at 0.905, therefore, it is quite weird that for today, the price actually drops lower and with a higher volume. Technically, the MACD is showing bearish divergence. But as long as the ascending triangle pattern still holds true, worst-case scenario support should be at around 0.85 - 0.865, in my opinion, after which it should test 0.99 again, then drops slightly again, then rise again to eventually break the 0.99, which should coincide with the period during which Vard's 3Q results are released (provided that it is good). 3rd Q results should most probably determine whether Vard can break 0.99, after which it should sail all the way smoothly back to at least 1.22 and above. For those people who wishes to average down, can do so when the MACD shows signs of converging and clear support of price level is seen or price trending higher. Above is just my own opinion and observation. Do your own due diligence. Thanks..

 

No news is Good news............ Huat arhhhhhhh

WanSiTong      ( Date: 17-Oct-2013 09:17) Posted: Yes ! Hopefully no profit guidance for this quarter. Huat arh........ Scheduled date for release of Financial Results for the Third Quarter ended 30 September 2013 Vard Holdings Limited will be announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended 30 September 2013 on Wednesday, 6 November 2013, before market opens. The financial statements, presentation and news release will be available for viewing at     www.sgx.com as well as the company?s website www.vard.com. SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 16-Oct-2013 19:28) Posted: Vard's results will be released on 6th of Nov.. No profit guidance, most likely should be good ba, I hope (fingers crossed). Just added more again today at 0.83. But still have to see how the US drama unfolds. Hopefully my bargain hunt is an early christmas present and not a disaster. Lol..

 

Vard doing reorganization to make it more efficient.

 

http://www.motorship.com/news101/industry-news/vard-reorganises-romanian-operations 

  Vard Vard reorganises Romanian operations 17 Oct 2013 Vard, formally STX Offshore, is reorganisation its operations Vard, formally STX Offshore, is reorganisation its operations Vard Holdings Limited, formerly STX Offshore, is reorganising its engineering division in Romania with a series of transfers and de-registration. Vard Piping SRL?s pipe fabrication business has been integrated into the Tulcea Shipyard, while its engineering division has been transferred to Vard Engineering Constanta SRL, a newly incorporated subsidiary in Romania. Owner 70% by Vard RO Holding SRL and 30% by Vard Bralia SA, Vard Engineering Constanta SRL will serve all of the group?s shipyards. Vard says it will focus on engineering capacity available in Romania, especially in Tulcea and Constanta. The paid-up capital of this company is ?320,000. In addition, AKA Ship Design SA, a subsidiary in Romania, is under liquidation. Vard Piping SRL will be de-registered in due course. STX Offshore was acquired earlier this year by Fincantieri.