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2141-2160 of 3003
Price range touch upper down trend line , likely to cross over with macd slightly flicking up.
Resistance at 503.
Support at 493.
closing at 493 below will void the attempt to break the down trend.
OCBC 
OCBC Overweight O&G Svc Sector, Tips SMM with S$5.70 Fair Value 
OCBC expects oil & gas companies with expertise in deepwater production to fare better vs those limited to shallow waters in 2011. "The demand for premium deeper water jack-ups has returned, and Keppel Corp. (BN4.SG) and SembCorp Marine (S51.SG) are likely to see more of such high-spec orders."
Says push for even more technical assets likely to continue, benefiting companies that do not scrimp on R&D, outlook for smaller offshore support vessels (anchor handling tug supply vessels, platform supply vessels) dimmer than construction vessel segment, given oversupply situation; "however, charter rates of larger and more sophisticated supply vessels are expected to be more resilient given still relatively healthy demand and fewer vessels available."
Keeps Overweight on sector, says oil prices likely to remain high enough to sustain capex while financing still improving.
CIMB
SembMarine (S51.SG) at Outperform with $5.94 targets. 
Good times ahead for Singapore O&M sector
Multi-year bull cycle awaits Singapore offshore & marine companies as demand for rigs expected to be strong from 2011-2013, says CIMB.Forecasts orders for 167 rigs worth combined US$74 billion ($96.8 billion), including orders from Petrobras, to be placed globally in next 3 years.
Says optimism based on firm oil prices hovering in US$80-US$90/bbl range, increased demand for higher-spefication rigs with deeper drilling capabilities, presence of “quality yards” with stronger financial health as weaker rivals put out of action by recent global crisis.
Expects little threat to Singapore yards from Korea, Chinese rivals as “the Koreans continue to focus on offshore units and drillships, while the Chinese may take a few years to strengthen their track records in rig building.”
Merrill Lynch
Too early to sell on news of Petrobras’ commercial bids
Switch to SMM, due to its weaker post-Petrobras sentiment We believe investors were generally disappointed by the details of commercial bids for Petrobras’ 28 rigs last Friday, as Keppel Corp’s (KEP) share price only rose 0.2%, and Sembcorp Marine’s (SMM) dipped 3.8%. We believe the sell down in SMM’s [the 4th lowest bidder for Package 2 (please refer to page 2)] share price is unwarranted, as the jury is still out on the total number of rigs that Petrobras wants to build.
Our base case stays unchanged, and we keep the S$4.9bn order win expectation (from Petrobras) for both KEP and SMM in our earnings models. There is upside to our FY10 order win assumptions if our thesis proves correct. Order awards not decided yet, but 28 rigs or more possible We believe SMM may yet win a batch of 7 drillships, if Petrobras sticks to its 28 rigs or more offer, including at least 3 batches of 7 drillships each.
This scenario implies:
1) SMM is the 4th winner if Petrobras awards 4 batches of 7 rigs each,
2) the 3rd winner if Petrobras awards 3 batches of 7 rigs each, as KEP will likely be diverted to win rig orders in other packages to avoid being seen as dominating Petrobras’ tenders, for both politically and commercially feasible reasons. Indeed, KEP has already emerged as the second lowest bidder for a rig under Package 1, and dominates the tenders for newbuild chartered-in rigs under Package 3.
Investors writing off SMM’s chances are in for a surprise We now prefer SMM more than KEP for exposure to Petrobras’ orders, due to:
1) share price upside as investors’ sentiment reverses, after the decline last Friday had reflected diminishing hope on SMM’s chances. We see SMM’s probability of success as reasonable, as our channel check shows Petrobras may award more than 28 rigs in total.
2) Bigger price upside to our S$5.70 PO for SMM. There is 9% downside to our current PO if SMM does not win Petrobras’ orders. On the contrary, there could be upside to our current PO, if we raise the value of the order win assumption from S$700mn for each rig closer to its bid of US$740mn. More upside left in KEP, on a standalone basis KEP has a good chance of winning Petrobras’ orders, and we keep our Buy on the group. This is due to possible 5% upside adjustment to our S$11.30 PO, if we adjust for KEP’s US$739mn bid for each drillship, vs the S$700mn value captured in our model. It is worth noting the final price for each rig is still to be negotiated with Petrobras, and the exact number of rigs awarded to KEP is not fixed yet. Petrobras’ orders are big, but is just part of cyclical upturn We reiterate our thesis that the rig building sector is not just about Petrobras’ orders, but a multi-year cyclical upturn that was first driven by the demand for higher spec rigs, and then subsequently by the supply case for replacement of older rigs. We believe the pressure for higher newbuild prices is building up, and this will lead to a re-rating on the sector to beyond mid-cycle valuations on 2012.
Sembcorp Marine (SMBMF) 
Our PO for SMM is S$5.70. This is based on the FCFF valuation model on SMM,
and the value of the group's equity investments at forward P/E. We expect SMM
to achieve a series of record earnings FY12 onwards, after enduring a short-term earnings decline during FY11. Hence, we believe the FCFF model is the most appropriate valuation metric to capture the intrinsic value of this world-leadingshipyard in a transition phase, and the high free cash flow generative nature of the group's business. The implied FY10E P/E at our PO is 15x.
Our FCFF valuation model uses a WACC of 8.7%, based on a risk-free rate of
2.6% and a market risk premium of 4.5%. We have assumed a terminal growth
rate of 1%.
Downside risks to our PO are
1) Sudden unexpected reduction in global oil demand and E&P activities, which would reduce the incentive to build
new offshore drilling rigs and production units,
2) Failure to win newbuild rig/FPSO contracts from Petrobras,
3) Weaker-than-expected margin execution at new yards in Singapore and Brazil.
The upside risks are
1) Fasterthan-expected new order upswing,
2) Better profit margins, as operational efficiency gains at new and existing yards are better than expected.
RBS
Sembcorp Marine
Premature evacuation (company visit)
SMM's 4% share price correction last Friday presents a good Buy opportunity, in
our view as SMM is still a strong contender for Petrobras' 28-rig tender, with its
fourth lowest bid price. SMM believes Petrobras is likely to order up to 20 rigs on
top of the 28 tendered. High-spec jack-up inquiries are increasing in flow.
Petrobras is not all about price
SMM’s bid price for Petrobras’ 28-rig tender was fourth in line and just 0.1% above Keppel’s
bid price. Some analysts believe that Petrobras will only award three bidders from Part 1 (7-
drillship newbuild packages) and therefore this puts SMM out of the race.
We disagree and believe that SMM is still one of the strong contenders for one of the 7-
drillship packages because bid price is not the only determining factor, in our view. According
to Upstream, Petrobras is close to awarding Doris (France) with the FPSO topside orders
over WorleyParsons (Australia), despite Doris’ higher US$212m bid price versus
WorleyParson’s US$150m.
Furthermore, SMM believes that Petrobras will require many more rigs than the 28+2 being
tendered currently - SMM says Petrobras will most likely order 20 additional rigs.
Petrobras will start individual negotiations with all 7 bidders and plans to announce winners by
the year-end.
Jack-up inquiries are going through the roof
SMM’s management says that Transocean, Maersk, Diamond Offshore, Noble, ENSCO,
Seadrill and Atwood are all in the market for new rigs, which is not surprising since 338 out of
466 jack-ups (or 70%) globally are over 20 years old.
Maersk plans to order a new jack-up every 6 months for the next few years, according to
SMM. Maersk closed its bid on the two CJ70 harsh environment jack-ups in Oct 2010 and
SMM believes it is competing with Keppel for the approximately US$400m contract.
We believe SMM’s bargaining power is increasing versus drillers. Transocean, which recently
agreed to purchase one jack-up from SMM’s subsidiary PPL at US$195m, paid 40% of the rig price upfront. This is much higher than the 20% that SMM usually receives.
Buy into recent weakness (TP maintained at S$5.50)
We believe SMM’s 3.8% share price decline and 4% underperformance versus Keppel seen
on 28 Nov is undeserved.
There is more upside than downside for SMM’s share price, in our view, at the current
valuations. 2011F PE stands at 18x, PB at 4.2x for ROE of 24%.
| OCBC overweight O&G service sector; Tips Keppel, SembMarine |
| WRITTEN BY DOW JONES & CO, INC |
| THURSDAY, 02 DECEMBER 2010 12:09 |
OCBC expects oil & gas companies with expertise in deepwater production to fare better vs those limited to shallow waters in 2011.
“The demand for premium deeper water jack-ups has returned, and Keppel Corp. (BN4.SG) and SembCorp Marine (S51.SG) are likely to see more of such high-spec orders.” Says push for even more technical assets likely to continue, benefiting companies that do not scrimp on R&D, outlook for smaller offshore support vessels (anchor handling tug supply vessels, platform supply vessels) dimmer than construction vessel segment, given oversupply situation; “however, charter rates of larger and more sophisticated supply vessels are expected to be more resilient given still relatively healthy demand and fewer vessels available.”
Keeps Overweight on sector, says oil prices likely to remain high enough to sustain capex while financing still improving. Preferred picks: Keppel, Buy, $12.50 fair value, SembCorp Marine, Buy, $5.70 fair value.
/theedgesingapore/icameireadipostedfyionly/
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All things end well.
さかいゆう / ストーリー
Thanks for the post!
bsiong ( Date: 01-Dec-2010 11:43) Posted:
Sembcorp Marine- Technical Analysis Sembcorp Marine stock is trading within the confines of a flag-like consolidation pattern since peaking out at 5.20. The technical bias remains to the upside. A decisive breach of resistance near 5.00 would confirm this bullish continuation signal. Next upside objectives would be 5.20 and then around 5.70. The past two sessions the stock shaped bullish doji candles in the daily chart, indicating demand near support of the lower confine of the flag at 4.75. Only a decisive move below 4.75 would negate the bull flag and suggest correction towards 4.50-4.54. The longer-term bulls remain in control unless key support 4.40/4.50 is violated.
/ DB Warrants Team//
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Sembcorp Marine- Technical Analysis
Sembcorp Marine stock is trading within the confines of a flag-like consolidation pattern since peaking out at 5.20. The technical bias remains to the upside. A decisive breach of resistance near 5.00 would confirm this bullish continuation signal. Next upside objectives would be 5.20 and then around 5.70. The past two sessions the stock shaped bullish doji candles in the daily chart, indicating demand near support of the lower confine of the flag at 4.75. Only a decisive move below 4.75 would negate the bull flag and suggest correction towards 4.50-4.54. The longer-term bulls remain in control unless key support 4.40/4.50 is violated.
/ DB Warrants Team//
4.77 will be the highest ?
epliew ( Date: 30-Nov-2010 12:09) Posted:
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doji forming ?
maybe yesterday 4.77 may appear !
short it !
bsiong ( Date: 30-Nov-2010 01:15) Posted:
for your eyes only....:)
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doji forming ?
maybe yesterday 4.77 may appear !
short it !
bsiong ( Date: 30-Nov-2010 01:15) Posted:
for your eyes only....:)
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Smar currently trading in downtrend.
the price range was well supported by 35ema.
Support at 474
Resistance at 484
Just my comment. happy trading today
for your eyes only....:)
Ep, it is a dragonfly doji. Opening and ending at the same price - at the high point of the day, posted on the trader's lounge thread b4 last Sat that today will expect to see a short black candle or doji.
epliew ( Date: 29-Nov-2010 09:21) Posted:
need to update your charts..... what is next lower support level ?
bsiong ( Date: 28-Nov-2010 12:17) Posted:
Chart update.....
/iluvchart/ |
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need to update your charts..... what is next lower support level ?
bsiong ( Date: 28-Nov-2010 12:17) Posted:
Chart update.....
/iluvchart/ |
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4.77 now....
can it be going lower?
waiting for 4.11 to come......
lowchia ( Date: 27-Nov-2010 20:00) Posted:
On Friday, SembMar re-test the support at $4.84 and closed at $4.84 with HIGH volume of 15.94 million shares traded.
A LONG black candle stick with lower shadow affirms that bears have tried to short this stock down below the support.
Both RSI & MACD are bearish as RSI continue to trend downwards.
Important Resistance of SembMar: $5.20
Immediate Support of SembMar: $4.84
Currently prices are supported by the 20 days MA at $4.84
On 26/Nov, traders tried to short the stock down below the support of $4.84 as with high selling pressure.
We would not encourage investors to buy at this moment since the price is still relatively high.
Instead buying at 200 days MA would be an ideal entry price (current price at $4.11)
SEE ANALYSIS FOR SINGTEL
If vested, do watch the support at $4.84 and consider taking profit if the support gave way with high volume.
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Chart update.....
/iluvchart/
On Friday, SembMar re-test the support at $4.84 and closed at $4.84 with HIGH volume of 15.94 million shares traded.
A LONG black candle stick with lower shadow affirms that bears have tried to short this stock down below the support.
Both RSI & MACD are bearish as RSI continue to trend downwards.
Important Resistance of SembMar: $5.20
Immediate Support of SembMar: $4.84
Currently prices are supported by the 20 days MA at $4.84
On 26/Nov, traders tried to short the stock down below the support of $4.84 as with high selling pressure.
We would not encourage investors to buy at this moment since the price is still relatively high.
Instead buying at 200 days MA would be an ideal entry price (current price at $4.11)
SEE ANALYSIS FOR SINGTEL
If vested, do watch the support at $4.84 and consider taking profit if the support gave way with high volume.
This stock just close below the 23.6% Fibonacci Support Level, it looks bearish right now.
see my analysis on this SembMar
