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Sembmarine

I keep buying!

 

SembMarine target raised to $6.08 by DBS Vickers

WRITTEN BY DOW JONES & CO, INC

TUESDAY, 21 DECEMBER 2010 11:52

DBS Vickers raises SembCorp Marine (S51.SG) target price to $6.08 from $5.48 and keeps Buy rating. The house says since October, SembMarine has secured US$1.6 billion ($2.1 billion) in orders, reversing its orderbook decline, with orders at about US$5 billion currently from US$4.3 billion a quarter ago. “Order momentum is gaining traction with SMM seeing a high level of enquiries for newbuild jackups and floaters, as well as production units, and not forgetting its outstanding options for seven newbuild jackups worth about US$1.4 billion.” DBS Vickers adds, SembMarine’s new proprietary design is well sought after, which will keep it ahead of the competition. DBS Vickers raises FY12 order wins projection to US$5 billion from US$4 billion, compared with FY11’s US$4.5 billion. “Together with adjusted orderbook recognition schedule on shorter lead times today, plus revised earnings forecasts for 30%-owned Cosco Shipyard Group, results in a 1%-3% adjustment to our FY11-12” forecasts. Shares are +0.8% at $4.96. /theedge/i come i read i post fyi/

 

Sembcorp Marine - Technical Analysis

 

Sembcorp Marine stock has established a consolidation pattern after it set a high at 5.20 two weeks ago. It held support at the 20-day moving average up to now. A decisive break above the short-term downtrend line currently near 5.05 would suggest resumption of the major strong bull trend. Possible upside targets remain located at the multi-year high 5.20 and then near the 2007 peak of 5.70. A drop below the low of the current consolidation at 4.85 and then gap support 4.79 would indicate a deeper pullback near-term. The stock should then find support around 4.50.

/db warrants/

/for your reference - exercise diligence before trading////

 

 

Daiwa recommends BUY with Target price at $5.17

 What has changed?

• On 14 December, Upstream magazine said that Petrobras (PBR US, US$34.07,

3) might award initially fewer than its planned 28 made-in-Brazil rig contracts,

including rejecting all the contracts submitted by independent drillers.

Impact

• Petrobras had asked for bids in three separate tranches (pairs of Petrobrasowned

rigs, packages of seven identical Petrobras-owned rigs, and up to four

rigs owned/operated by independent drillers), with a combined total of 28 rigs.

The Upstream article said that only one package of seven identical drill-ships

might be awarded now, not two. The article also suggested that a new

supplemental tender might be launched to award rigs to more yards (ie, rely less

on the seven rig contracts).

• Assuming the report is correct, it would be slightly negative for Keppel Corp

(Keppel) (KEP SP, S$10.88, 2), which was the nominated rig builder for three

of the five independent drillers (ie, the lowest, median, and highest bidders).

The potential loss of these rigs for the independent drillers could theoretically

be offset by winning new contracts in the possible supplemental tender. We

think that Keppel would be in a good position to win one of these contracts as it

is one of the few bidders that has an existing yard in Brazil and the only one

with experience of building deep-water vessels. However, the increased

uncertainty in the situation adds, by definition, more risk to Keppel’s stock.

• If the article is correct, we think it would be positive for SembCorp Marine

(SembMarine) (SMM SP, S$5.12, 2), as the company originally appeared to be

positioned to win, at most, two rigs from Petrobras. In our view, a supplemental

tender would increase its chances of winning more contracts.

Valuation

• We maintain our six-month target prices, of S$12.05 for Keppel and S$5.17 for

SembMarine, because the details of the news reports have not been confirmed.

Our target price for SembMarine is based on a DCF analysis, while for Keppel

it is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation.

Catalysts and action

• We maintain our Positive rating for the Singapore rig-building sector. In our

view, the rig-building sector is now at the beginning of a new-order cycle. We

expect more jack-ups to be ordered in early 2011, while we believe more deepwater

vessels (excluding Petrobras’s award) will be ordered in late 2011. The

Petrobras award remains a major positive or negative share-price catalyst,

depending on the outcome, due to its large potential size to the winners. We

expect the initial award of the contracts to be made in 1Q11.

Life Is Great 

 

Good Move. Read One analyst report today, SembMarine may end with nothing for Package 2. Keppel Corp has very good chance for this package

Jackpot2010      ( Date: 15-Dec-2010 11:18) Posted: Today switch ALL SembMarine to KepCorp. ($5.15 / $10.76). KepCorp got more meat going forward. Petrobras contract announcement any moment now.....

 

???today went down right ?

krisluke      ( Date: 15-Dec-2010 19:16) Posted: Hey jackpot 2010, This babe, time being not dated. Jackpot2010      ( Date: 15-Dec-2010 11:18) Posted: Today switch ALL SembMarine to KepCorp. ($5.15 / $10.76). KepCorp got more meat going forward. Petrobras contract announcement any moment now.....

 

Petrobras to name drillship winner

Petrobras is set to award just one of the contractual packages on offer for building seven drillships per Brazilian shipyard, a director with the company confirmed today.

Gareth Chetwynd 14 December 2010 16:20 GMT

“We will be ruling on some final disqualification appeals today, then negotiations should begin with the lowest bidder,” engineering director Renato Duque told reporters at Petrobras headquarters.

The lowest bid of $4.65 billion, was presented by Estaleiro Atlantico Sul, edging out second-placed Alusa Galvao, with $4.68 billion.

“In principle only one of these seven-rig contracts will be awarded,” Duque said.

If confirmed, this Petrobras stance will also leave Keppel Fels ($5.17 billion), Jurong Shipyard ($5.18 billion) and Odebrecht-OAS-UTC ($5.31 billion) out in the cold.

Petrobras is now close to concluding its tenders for up to 28 Brazilian-built ultra-deepwater rigs, but the first attempt seems certain to produce a more modest number

Duque added that possible awards in an additional category for up two more Petrobras-owned rigs - one per yard - were still under analysis. EAS was also the lowest bidder in this category, offering a drillship, while Keppel Fels was second, with a semi-submersible.

Duque also suggested that the Petrobras E&P division was still keeping its options open for contracting chartered rigs under a parallel tender, also specifiying that construction must be in Brazil.

Most Brazilian industry sources have predicted that the parallel tender for the chartered units will be cancelled after bidders offered dayrates averaging nearly $700,000

Petrobras intends to contract a total of 28 ultra-deepwater rigs for construction in Brazil, to be delivered between 2014 and 2017.

It has been suggested that a Dutch-registered arm of Petrobras is planning to open more flexible negotiations with shipyards that participated in the tender, possibly ordering fewer rigs per facility. A re-tender process may also be considered.

The rig tender, as originally formatted, was intended to offer the commercial foundations to encourage new shipyard projects.

The EAS consortium has built a major shipyard in the north-eastern state of Pernambuco, although some infrastructure investments are still pending.



Ok folks, final post for smar from me this year : )

 

Hey jackpot 2010, This babe, time being not dated.

Jackpot2010      ( Date: 15-Dec-2010 11:18) Posted: Today switch ALL SembMarine to KepCorp. ($5.15 / $10.76). KepCorp got more meat going forward. Petrobras contract announcement any moment now.....

 

Today switch ALL SembMarine to KepCorp. ($5.15 / $10.76). KepCorp got more meat going forward. Petrobras contract announcement any moment now.....

 

 

SembCorp Marine 4thQ earning 2010:   22 Feb 2011



Disclaimer:

Keen investors /& those who are vested are to log in to their relevant financial websites for an more accurate report.

 

 

this is a really good chart !

krisluke      ( Date: 11-Dec-2010 23:50) Posted: @lowchia, thanks for the chart update : )

 

I find e article for gold, silver and oil, inclusive of chart. Opec minister announced on 11 dec 2010 that oil output remain unchanged and favor price between US7000 - 8000 (cent) per barrel and was tolerable for consumers.

This serves as a relief for oil consumer who woorying rising oil price would hamper gobal economic recovery if break psychological barrier at US10000 (cents).

Livetradingnews.com

 

                      VS                 

                       Wright Quality Rating: BAA2                                                Wright Quality Rating: ABB1



Wright Quality Rating

 

Here are some top picks for 2011 that we are very bullish on.

ExxonMobil (XOM) - Expect XOM to see lots of new business now with BP’s problems. I think this is a good long-term anchor to any portfolio.

Chevron (CVX) - Good overall play as they have very low exposure to refining while holding a stellar exploration portfolio. With rising oil prices this stock is a no brainer. Chevron also posses a solid 4% dividend yield and is currently trading at around eight times earnings.

ConocoPhillips (COP) – Holds a strong array of natural gas positions which could be the future of energy after the recent series of events. Adding to this they are strong globally and posses many valuable assets that will strengthen the companies prospects.

PetroBras (PBR) – Love this stock however it has been the worst performing stock in Brail throughout the first half of the year due to capital problems and the BP Oil Spill. I feel this overhang has kept the stock low which presents a great buying opportunity as PBR continues to be under-valued when matched up against it’s peers. My gut feeling is once these few issues are washed away this stock will rise.

Suncor (SU) - Refineries and Oil Drillers such as Suncor should succeed as many have been hit hard unfairly due to the BP crisis. I think this stock will be trading at around $40 a year from now supported by a solid dividend makes it an attractive investment.

Oil investments are very risky you should read our entire disclaimer and get independent advice.

Sources Cited

For Infos read

 

@lowchia, thanks for the chart update : )

 

when I posted, the picture was there. The next morning disappear.

can't insert image from pc as upload button was missing : (

any expert here to solve this problem.

bsiong      ( Date: 10-Dec-2010 14:29) Posted: Can you all guys see what pictures "krisluke" posted ?  or my notebook plays me out ....

 

Can you all guys see what pictures "krisluke" posted ?  or my notebook plays me out ....   

 

 

The OverallTechnical Outlook: Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude faced some resistance ahead of my target of 61.8% projection of 70.76 to 88.63 from 80.06 at 91.10 and retreated.

Intra-day bias is turned Neutral and some consolidations should be seen in here. Strong support is expected at 4 hours 55 EMA now at 86.93 to contain the downside action, and bring another rise.

A clear break of 91.10 will target 100% projection at 97.93. But, trading below the 4 hours 55 EMA will indicate that deeper fall is coming and targets 80.06, the Key near term support level, instead.

The Big Picture: the break of 88.63 resistance confirms that medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress and has resumed. Such rally is treated as the 2nd wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27 and should target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 103.70.

On the Downside: a clear break of 80.06, Key support, is needed as the 1st sign of a medium term reversal and a break of 64.23 is needed to confirm that action. Barring that, my outlook remains Bearish on Crude Oil. Stay tuned…

 

no pic... 

 

when will it come down.