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Offshore view solid, even if PBR drops package - Goldman Sachs
| Written by Dow Jones & Co, Inc |
| Wednesday, 12 January 2011 16:18 |
Written bt DOW Jones, INC.
http://www.theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/24879-offshore-view-solid-even-if-pbr-drops-package-goldman-sachs-.html
Goldman Sachs, citing an article Tuesday in offshore & marine industry journal Upstream, says Petrobras (PBR) may cancel the two rig package within its giant tender, due to higher-than-expected prices, in which Keppel (BN4.SG) is widely considered a frontrunner.
GS says the news “may appear slightly negative for Keppel, but this does not impact our estimates as we have not factored in any PBR-related order wins for Keppel.”
Instead, the houses sees this as positive for the O&M sector, “as PBR could move to contract existing rigs to fulfill its drilling needs. This would drive rig utilization up, which could potentially stimulate non-PBR newbuild orders.”
It adds, positive feedback from U.S. drillers further supports its view that a deepwater recovery is going to happen soon. GS expects the market to look past the slightly negative PBR news for Keppel, rated Buy, and focus on the industry’s strong underlying fundamentals.
The house’s top O&M pick is STX OSV (MS7.SG), rated Buy. Keppel is up 1.2% at $11.58.
| Written by Dow Jones & Co, Inc |
| Wednesday, 12 January 2011 16:18 |
| Written by Dow Jones & Co, Inc |
| Wednesday, 12 January 2011 16:18 |
Likely bot in anticipation, sell on good news (sell into strength goes on profit taking)
Even secured a rig, share price not responding???? go diff direction??? Why???
SembCorp Marine
SembCorp Marine: Announced that it has secured a turnkey contract to build a jack-up rig with Atwood Oceanics, as part of the three options granted to Atwood in Oct10. The newbuild is priced at around US$182m with delivery scheduled for end-Jun13. The new Pacific Class 400 rig will have similar specifications to the other two rigs ordered earlier, and are the latest generations of high spec jack-up drilling rigs with greater capacities and capabilities than current units….
We note that order wins brings total number of orders secured by grp this yr to an approximate S$448m, and grp has a current orderbook of approximately $5b. Analysts are tipping for grp to clinch approximately $4.5b worth of orders for 2011 (excluding petrobas)….
At current levels, grp trades at 14.4xE FY11 PE vs its historical average of 21.7x, suggesting that valuations are still compelling. Kim Eng remains positive on stock in view of the strong likelihood of even more new orders and is currently reviewing our target price (Current TP $5.40)….
Technically, multi-year high of $5.47 hit 3rd Jan will act as resistance.
// so many babe, i think you rock this time... ... //
SembCorp Marine (S51.SG) is +1.4% at $5.21 in healthy volume, against the STI +0.1%, after the company says it secured a newbuild contract for a dynamically positioned research vessel and three upgrading contracts, totalling $215 million.
While analysts’ bullish views on demand for high spec jackup rigs have cheered investors as SMM and Keppel (BN4.SG) are key beneficiaries (60% market share in new jackup orders in 2010), these orders are likely generating interest as they highlight SMM’s strong capabilities in the highly specialized niche and customized vessel sector.
OCBC, which has a Buy rating and $5.70 fair value estimate, says “this is SMM’s first announcement regarding contract wins for this year, and we are incorporating a $4 billion new order win estimate (excluding Petrobras tender) for FY11 versus 2010’s total order intake of about $3.2 billion...SMM is likely to meet our new order assumptions.”
Last week’s high at $5.26 may cap the stock near term, before the multi-year high of $5.47. Keppel (BN4.SG) is +0.5% at $11.52 and Semborp Industries (U96.SG) is +0.8% at $5.08.
// first coverage 2011 by ocbc research excluding petrobras tender //
SembMarine: Annouced that is has clinched a newbuilding and three upgrading contracts worth $215m. The newbuilding contract, worth $123m, was awarded by Teekay Shipping (Australia) Pty Ltd for the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) of a dynamically positioned blue water research vessel for Australia, slated for delivery in Q2 2013.
The remaining three upgrading contracts worth $92m will involve a heavy-lift and pipelay vessel, a liquefied natural gas carrier longevity project and a drillship.
We note that the order win could possibly already be factored into order wins assumptions by analysts for FY11, and could have neglible impact on today’s share price movement. Co. has a current orderbook of approximately $4.8b and an estimated order win for 2011 (excluding petrobas) at $4.5b.
We note that the order win could possibly already be factored into order wins assumptions by analysts for FY11, and could have neglible impact on today’s share price movement. Co. has a current orderbook of approximately $4.8b and an estimated order win for 2011 (excluding petrobas) at $4.5b.
At current levels, grp trades at 14.4xE FY11 PE vs its historical average of 21.7x, suggesting that valuations are still compelling.
Majority of street has Buy Ratings on Stock, with TP ranging from $4.60 - $7.00.
// fyi, analysts and street talk alredi say bye bye to petrobras liao //
On Friday, Sembmar re-test its $5.13 support and closed at $5.18 with HIGH volume of 7.34 million shares traded.
A
falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous
shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a
continuation of a bearish trend. There have been 3
falling windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current
falling window even more bearish.
A
long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish
signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a
support level, or when the security is oversold).
Both RSI & MACD are bearish as MACD perform a “cross down” recently.
Important Resistance of Sembmar: $5.20
Immediate Support of Sembmar: $5.13
Currently prices are resisted by 20 days MA at $5.20
Sembmar has been under heavy selling pressure for the past 2 trading days.
However the prices remain......................
READ MORE
SembMar fundamentals
| P/E |
1.17 |
P/B Ratio |
0.46 |
| Open |
5.17 |
Volume |
7336000 |
| Last Close |
5.19 |
Short Ratio |
Not Applicable |
| Last Traded |
1/14/2011 |
Year High |
5.47 |
| Percent Change |
 0.19% |
Year Low |
3.23 |
| Absolute Change |
0.01  |
Time |
Not Applicable |
| EPS |
4.43 |
PEG Ratio |
Not Applicable |
| Day High |
5.18 |
Day Low |
5.14 |
| Target Price |
5.35 |
Current EPS |
4.43 |
| This Year EPS |
0.36 |
Next Year EPS |
0.29 |
| Current PE |
1.17 |
This Year PE |
14.42 |
| Next Year PE |
17.90 |
Dividend |
Not Applicable |
YES !! S marine do me proud again. Congrat to those who enter at 512. you should have lock IN $$$. YES !! The price action day again rested on 30 days ema which could means another $$$ for those braveheart. How much $$$ would depend on the risk-reward ratio pre to the setup. On the big pic, the s marine enter into wave 4, YES !! corrective wave. It would be a fantasic price range of 510 -505. On a loomer view, perhaps can Q 496 daily from now on to flush out weaker opponent on the market swing.
FOR THOSE WHO BELIEVE IN WAVE 5, IT TIME TO GO LONG IF YOU HAVE ENTER IN CHEAP !!! YES CHEAP CHEAP !!! ON THE BRIGHER SIDE, DO CALCULATE THE RISK REWARD RATIO TOO !! !!!!
HAPPY LNY ON FEB 2011
// As usual, disclaimer alert do apply upon this writeout //
Veri lucky bor tiok "smoke". see big bro hsi veri choppy in the morning as well as twin bro sse looks weak. but the main cause of cliff slide only happen in th afternoon after some property tax news broke. morning was attempting to stage an recovery though... .... As expected slide may persist till mid jan and hopefully recovery in feb when EQ4 draw near. target price: 535. {492, 506, 513 and 523 and 556 }
my personal opinion only /-
http://charts.mrswing.com/
// pullback from ascending triangle breakout. ideal for low risk swing trade //
just my personal opinion, good luck (:
Technical Comment from CIMB
• Sembcorp Marine is also fast approaching its long term uptrend channel
resistance. The recent graveyard doji-like candle may have been a top but it
would require more confirmation signs.
• Closing below S$5.14 would be a more than welcome sign for the bears.
Anything below its 50-day SMA would confirm that prices are heading much
lower to correct the rally from late September. If its MACD confirms its dead
cross, it would also be a telling bearish signal.
• Traders may opt to sell now with a stop place above S$5.39. Those who can
stomach a tad more should place their stop above S$5.55. A test of its 200-day
SMA at S$4.28 could be on the cards if the 50-day SMA gives way
Life Is Great
Sembcorp Marine- Technical Analysis
Sembcorp Marine stock broke above the upper confine of the recent congestion at 5.20 on Wednesday. This buy-signal triggered sharp upside follow-through buying pressure in yesterday's trade. The stock shaped a long bullish candle and closed near the high for the session. Potential initial upside target is located at 5.70. Longer-term the stock could rise towards around 7. Some consolidation or pullback would not surprise near-term. The short-term bias remains to the upside as long as 5.03 holds as support. A drop below the recent low at 4.92 would be bearish and point to a deeper pullback.
/dbwarrants/
I remember Keppel issue K green earlier this year. thinking wants to switch that time. but due to $$ problem did not materialise.
if you're adding to current position. Keppel corp + k green = more $$$ liao.
congrats.
Jackpot2010 ( Date: 22-Dec-2010 11:48) Posted:
Wow! US$1.2b is a big deal. Congrats to those still vested, I swop to KepCorp last week. |
|
look fwd, i think your turn will come soon 2011
if the news can be one day earlier I will make money.....
bsiong ( Date: 22-Dec-2010 09:44) Posted:
| SembMarine bags US$400m contract to build 2 jackup rigs for Noble |
| WRITTEN BY THE EDGE | | WEDNESDAY, 22 DECEMBER 2010 08:27 | Sembcorp Marine’s subsidiary Jurong Shipyard has secured two turnkey contracts with a combined value of up to US$400 million ($525.2 million) to build two jackup rigs with options for another four jackup rigs from a subsidiary of Noble Corporation.
If all four of the options are exercised, the total estimated value of the six jackup rigs is expected to be in the region of US$1.2 billion. Scheduled for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2012 and second quarter of 2013 respectively, these two new turnkey units will be built based on the upgraded Friede & Goldman JU2000E design to be named Friede & Goldman JU3000N. These rigs will be suitable for operations in many challenging environments, including high temperature areas such as the Middle East and in the North Sea.
The new JU3000N design is the result of the combined development efforts of Jurong Shipyard, Noble and Friede & Goldman in creating an enlarged hull that will offer more operational benefits, including ergonomic and efficient accommodation layout, increased deck space and placement of equipment that will allow the crew to efficiently and safely carry out maintenance duties. On completion, these new rigs will be capable of operating in waters of 400 feet and drilling depths of 30,000 feet.
|
/theedge/
|
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Good news again....
when will it come down to my target buying price ?????
Jackpot2010 ( Date: 22-Dec-2010 11:48) Posted:
Wow! US$1.2b is a big deal. Congrats to those still vested, I swop to KepCorp last week. |
|
Wow! US$1.2b is a big deal. Congrats to those still vested, I swop to KepCorp last week.
| SembMarine bags US$400m contract to build 2 jackup rigs for Noble |
| WRITTEN BY THE EDGE |
| WEDNESDAY, 22 DECEMBER 2010 08:27 |
Sembcorp Marine’s subsidiary Jurong Shipyard has secured two turnkey contracts with a combined value of up to US$400 million ($525.2 million) to build two jackup rigs with options for another four jackup rigs from a subsidiary of Noble Corporation.
If all four of the options are exercised, the total estimated value of the six jackup rigs is expected to be in the region of US$1.2 billion. Scheduled for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2012 and second quarter of 2013 respectively, these two new turnkey units will be built based on the upgraded Friede & Goldman JU2000E design to be named Friede & Goldman JU3000N. These rigs will be suitable for operations in many challenging environments, including high temperature areas such as the Middle East and in the North Sea.
The new JU3000N design is the result of the combined development efforts of Jurong Shipyard, Noble and Friede & Goldman in creating an enlarged hull that will offer more operational benefits, including ergonomic and efficient accommodation layout, increased deck space and placement of equipment that will allow the crew to efficiently and safely carry out maintenance duties. On completion, these new rigs will be capable of operating in waters of 400 feet and drilling depths of 30,000 feet.
|
/theedge/
Sembcorp Marine - Technical Analysis
Sembcorp Marine stock had approached the recent peak at 5.20 last week after resolving a bull-flag to the upside. It backed off this barrier and is currently hovering around the flat 20-day moving average near 4.98. The very short-term technical bias is neutral. A close above 5.20 would suggest uptrend resumption targeting 5.65 initially. A drop below the recent low at 4.75 on the other hand would confirm a double top reversal. A following sell-off towards 4,30/4,40 would not come as a surprise then.
/db warrants/
/exercise due diligence before trading////
