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DJ INDU AVERAGE .DJI i -- 9253.54 +81.930 +0.9 43,992,630
my boss said.... cover short at 9.3.... no scare.... hehe...
Further gains are inevitable...
my boss said.... Zinc is on turbo this month.... hehe....
Future Dow is very green. Cheers.
futures? Commo...
Hmmmm wat's Zinc har??????tks
Aug liao.... next week bet hardly on Zinc...
Zinc rocket in Aug.... my boss said one hor.... hehe.....
Arg.....heart pain ah.... close at 7.21 and high at 7.45.............
foucs6900 ( Date: 31-Jul-2009 22:42) Posted:
Ai ya, miss tis baby again today, now at 6.39 liao....
foucs6900 ( Date: 31-Jul-2009 22:15) Posted:
Hehe, mayb gana our super virus.....
Ant bro here vest US stocks for long, if yes, i said if yes oni hor, look at NYSE:ARM, good stock.......hv monitor it frm USD 3 when May n nw is USD 6, TP px will be ard USD 20 for long term vest (3yrs). Friend of my recommend, but me no more $ to vest liao, he lucky he vest when is dirt cheap ard USD 0.30 n he hammer it quite alot n sold at USD 3 plus, super profit........do some research b4 commit..... |
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Situation report: Economy stable, corporations cautious
Analysis -- Companies see a bottom but offer mixed views on a rebound
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - A quick review of second-quarter corporate report cards so far this season shows a growing number of companies willing to venture - on the record -- that they've probably seen the worst of the Great Recession.
That doesn't mean they see a big rebound in the months ahead. Some do, many don't. About the closest Corporate America comes to consensus at this point is that the economy has stabilized. But that hardly means things are truly on the mend.
"While we would all like to say that the economy is improving, we've really seen simply stabilization,"
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Aug 1, 2009
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Smaller dip in US GDP
<>But drop in consumer spending may be a drag on recovery
WASHINGTON - THE United States economy sank at an annual rate of just 1 per cent in the second quarter of the year, government data showed on Friday.
It was a better-than-expected showing that provided the strongest signal yet that the longest recession since World War II is finally winding down.
However, a sharp drop in consumer spending fanned fears that recovery would be sluggish. The dip in gross domestic product (GDP) for the April-to-June period, reported by the Commerce Department, comes after the economy was in a free fall, tumbling at a revised 6.4 per cent pace in the first three months of this year.
That was the sharpest slide in nearly three decades and was worse than the previous estimate of a 5.5 per cent drop.
With the contraction in the second quarter, US GDP has fallen for four straight quarters for the first time since government records started in 1947. Many economists were predicting a slightly bigger 1.5 per cent annualised contraction in second-quarter GDP.
'It's still a shaky outlook for the economy, but no shakier than before. No one's world view will shift. Consumer spending is very shaky now. That's the major risk in the economy,' said Mr Pierre Ellis, senior economist at Decision Economics in New York.
Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of US economic activity, fell at a 1.2 per cent rate in the second quarter after rising 0.6 per cent in the previous quarter. That sliced 0.88 percentage point from second-quarter GDP, the department said.
Rising unemployment, shrunken nest eggs and lower home values have weighed down consumer spending. With consumers spending less on everything from cars to clothes, Americans' savings rate rose sharply - to 5.2 per cent in the second quarter, the highest since 1998.
Less drastic spending cuts by businesses, a resumption of spending by federal and local governments and an improved trade picture were key forces behind the better performance in the second quarter.
Even if recession ends in the second half, as many analysts anticipate, unemployment is expected to keep rising and any recovery is likely to be a weak one.
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Barack Obama
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WASHINGTON: President Barack Obama said on Friday new GDP figures show the administration's stimulus programme is braking the recession, but he predicted job losses would continue.
Obama said the latest measure of US economic growth showed that the recession was both deeper than previously thought when he took office, and that the economy is now doing "measurably better" thanks to his government's stimulus programme.
"This, and other difficult, but important, steps that we've taken over the past six months, have helped us put the brakes on the recession," he said.
Obama, however, said that the monthly jobs report due out next week was "likely to show we're still continuing to lose far too many jobs."
"But history does show that you need to have economic growth before you have job growth," he said.
"And today's GDP is an important sign that the economy is headed in the right direction and that business investments, which had been plummeting in the last several months, is showing signs of stabilising," he said.
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Shoppers pass along a retail strip in Greenwich, Connecticut.
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WASHINGTON: The US economy narrowed its contraction to 1.0 per cent in the second quarter, the government said Friday, offering further evidence that the brutal recession is near an end.
The Commerce Department report was stronger than expected by private forecasters who had called on average for a 1.5 per cent annualised pace of contraction for the April-June quarter.
The report showed an easing of the economic slump and lent credence to predictions that the world's biggest economy was close to emerging from a recession that began in December 2007 after a bursting of a housing bubble.
"The small contraction in the economy in the second quarter is another indication that the recession will soon end," said Augustine Faucher, economist at Moody's Economy.com.
"We're seeing signs of stabilisation in a lot of areas of the economy, so the worst is definitely behind us," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates.
"We are close to a bottom in the overall economy but the recovery will be weak with continuing problems in the labor market."
The agency's latest revisions showed a 6.4 per cent decline in the first quarter, worse than the previous estimate of a 5.5 per cent drop.
In the fourth quarter of 2008, the drop was revised to 5.4 per cent instead of 6.3 per cent.
The report showed the annualised value of GDP in the second quarter at US$14.149 trillion.
Many segments of the economy remained extremely weak. Private investment was down 20.4 per cent, but that was better than a 50 per cent plunge in the first quarter.
Consumer spending, the main driver of economic activity, fell 1.2 per cent after a rise of 0.6 per cent in the first quarter.
The report also marked four consecutive quarters of economic contraction for the first time since these records were started in 1947.
But positive contributions came from increased auto production and trade.
Real final sales of domestic product - a key figure that strips out inventory adjustments - showed a 0.2 per cent drop in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 4.1 per cent in the first.
The report showed a turnaround driven in large part by government spending and exports.
Federal government expenditures and investment increased 10.9 per cent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 4.3 per cent in the first. That included defense expenditures up 13.1 per cent.
The positive contribution to GDP from trade came despite a drop in exports linked to weakness in the global economy. Exports of goods and services decreased 7.0 per cent in the second quarter while imports fell 15.1 per cent.
Because that meant more production was brought home, this was a positive factor for GDP.
The GDP report will be revised next month and again in September with more accurate figures on trade, which were not available for the current GDP report.
Many private and government economists see a return to growth in the second half of the year, although some warn that rising unemployment could dampen any recovery.
The jobless rate hit a 26-year high of 9.5 per cent in June amid more retrenchment by employers. Some expect the jobless rate to rise to 10 per cent or higher.
The US Federal Reserve this month raised its outlook for 2009 and 2010 economic output, projecting a rebound in the second half of 2009 that would leave the contraction for the year at between 1.0 and 1.5 per cent.
For 2010, the new Fed outlook saw growth in a range of 2.1 to 3.3 per cent, slightly better than its forecast in April.
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Friday lah maybe...most sidelined....need to take a break 1st lor....GDP ok...then monday STI sould have good sentimental... lotta profit taking today at STI...
foucs6900 ( Date: 31-Jul-2009 22:31) Posted:
| They having Tea break now or mayb early lunch........after 12pm US local time......we will see..........up up n away......dun go to Holland can liao.....lol |
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from biz times..
July 31, 2009, 10.41 pm (Singapore time)
US recovery to be 'stronger than many expect": ECRI
NEW
YORK - A measure of future US economic growth climbed higher in the
latest week while its yearly growth rate hit a fresh five-year high,
signaling a stronger recovery than originally forecast, a research
group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent
forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 119.6 in the
week ended July 24 from a downwardly revised 118.3 the previous week,
which was originally reported at 118.4.
The index's annualized
growth rate continued to soar, reaching a new five-year high of 8.8 per
cent from 7.7 per cent the prior week.
It was the highest yearly growth reading since the week to Oct 3, 2008 when it was 8.9 per cent.
ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan has said the recession is
already beginning to wane, and that increased stimulus from Washington
is not necessary for economic growth.
'Not only is the US recession set to end this summer, but the recovery is apt to be stronger than many expect.'
The weekly index rose in the latest week due to firmer housing activity, he said. -- REUTERS
This is a interesting read..
July 26, 2009
Posted: 1052 GMT
LONDON, England – Last week when I appeared on CNN to talk about earnings, I raised the issue of the quality of the U.S earnings.
Wall Street gains sent the Dow above 9,000 points for the first time since January.
Investors have been pushing stocks higher fueled by better than expected earnings. The Dow broke through 9,000 for first time since January, while the S&P 500 has shot up 11 percent in the past two weeks. The U.S. earnings season has fueled a global rally.
But are investors getting too euphoric? If you look at the revenue side of the earnings, not all is well. Take the 143 companies in the S&P 500 who reported last week. Revenues actual fell on average 10 percent from the same period a year ago, according to Bloomberg data.
Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuo Securities USA hit the nail on the head when he spoke about the divergence between earnings and revenues.
“We know companies are cutting costs at a record pace, and that is helping earnings. But you can’t keep on shrinking your way to profitability. Eventually, you do damage to your end users. You have to get revenues up to have a sustainable upturn.”
David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, echoed similar sentiments when quoted by the Financial Times.
“Earnings may be beating low-balled estimates for the majority of S&P 500 companies, but there is no questioning the fact that we are also seeing a sustained decline in revenues.”
“What we are still witnessing is a trading opportunity rather than a fundamental shift in the outlook. We must take into account what the risks are going to be once the buying momentum is lost,” he added.
The bottom line is that companies can’t indefinitely cut costs, they need to get revenues moving higher. But every time they shed a job, that means one less consumer spending as much money in the economy, undermining the prospects for recovery, which in turn of course, hurts companies earnings prospects.
In a research note this month, the economist Nouriel Roubini sounded a note of caution.
“Expectations of corporate earnings will have to be downgraded again. Demand will be weak, most prices will be falling, and companies will therefore have little pricing power and their profit margins will remain squeezed. The expectation that in these conditions profits will rebound strongly is quite far-fetched.”
Roubini is worth listening to, because he’s the guy who predicted the credit mess. As I’ve written many times before, any sustainable recovery is still far away.
But for now, investors aren’t too concerned why companies are beating earnings expectations; that they are is enough. A closer analysis might make investors a little less euphoric.
Do you agree or disagree?
Posted by: Financial Analyst, Todd Benjamin
Filed under: Business • Financial markets
very volatile trading session for DJ .... and trading in a very narrow range ... going to sleep liao ..... hope to see it close green tomolo ....
and if close green, another new record for 11th mnth high ...
Ai ya, miss tis baby again today, now at 6.39 liao....
foucs6900 ( Date: 31-Jul-2009 22:15) Posted:
Hehe, mayb gana our super virus.....
Ant bro here vest US stocks for long, if yes, i said if yes oni hor, look at NYSE:ARM, good stock.......hv monitor it frm USD 3 when May n nw is USD 6, TP px will be ard USD 20 for long term vest (3yrs). Friend of my recommend, but me no more $ to vest liao, he lucky he vest when is dirt cheap ard USD 0.30 n he hammer it quite alot n sold at USD 3 plus, super profit........do some research b4 commit..... |
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