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I guess..next Qtr will be even more tough...
when oil price is going up due to the Iran's political tension
EU economy is not doing well either...less import
China reported slowest growth rate since 2009...
see.. thats the diff when u hav a kao shan behind supporting..who dare to short? look at wilmar, yesterday lao sai until....
gavinl ( Date: 23-Feb-2012 14:34) Posted:
Aready waited for so so so long.
Dun mind waiting for another 1 or 2 months.[hope not]
Want to see how long this price will last?
My target price is 1.22.
Any comments from anyone? |
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1.05 - 1.10
P/B of 0.8 is more reasonable for a non-profiting company...
this number can be lower if it continue to loss money next Qtr.
Just my guess...
Aready waited for so so so long.
Dun mind waiting for another 1 or 2 months.[hope not]
Want to see how long this price will last?
My target price is 1.22.
Any comments from anyone?
so many sell call but price holding up from opening... BB not selling?? or catchin shortists?
NOL: big negative surprise in 4Q11 results.
NOL reported a net loss of US$320m, 145% higher than consensus loss forecast, in the weakest quarter in at least a decade.
The key driver was higher unit operating costs, +4.5% yoy but flat qoq, given higher industry avg bunker fuel prices in 4Q11 (+3% qoq, +39% yoy).
While NOL is targeting US$500m cost reduction for 2012, of which bunker savings will contribute 20%, analysts believe the amount is ambitious.
On operating metrics, 4Q11 container volumes were down 1% yoy, as trade on the major Transpacific and Asia-Europe routes fell 11% and 4% yoy, rptvly. Utilization rate at 92% was flat vs 91% yoy.
Freight rates declined 15% yoy and 8% qoq, with rate deterioration prevalent across all trade routes. In particular, Asia-Europe saw the largest correction (-21% yoy and -6% qoq).
Following the strong rally in NOL’s share price, +29% ytd vs STI’s +14%, Morgan Stanley says the bigger than expected 4Q11 loss may give investors reason to take profit, as the market remains skeptical of a sustainable rate recovery and the overhang of a weaker spot rate post CNY remains.
HSBC, Nomura also note that while carriers have rationalized capacity, idle capacity could return as soon as freight rates move higher. Believe that the proposed rate increases by several major carriers (to be effective 1 Mar) may not be 100% successful, given current overcapacity and weak demand from Europe.
HSBC reiterates Underweight with TP $1.1.
Nomura maintains at Reduce with TP $1. Says stock is expensive at 1.4x FY12E P/B vs the mid-cycle avg of 1x.
Macquarie keeps at Neutral with TP $1.08.
Shares of Neptune Orient Lines, the world’s sixth biggest container shipping firm, opened 8.8% lower after reporting a worse-than-expected quarterly loss due to high fuel costs and lower freight rates, reported Reuters.
At 9:11 a.m., NOL shares had extended losses and were trading around 10.88 percent lower at $1.27 a share, down $0.155.
NOL Group reports US$478 million loss for 2011
SINGAPORE, 22 FEBRUARY, 2012 – NOL Group today reported a US$478 million net loss in 2011 following net earnings of US$461 million in 2010. The container shipping and logistics company said unsettled economic conditions, high fuel costs and lower freight rates impacted results.
“The performance of container shipping is disappointing.” said Group CEO Ng Yat Chung. “Over-capacity and higher fuel costs have negatively affected the whole container shipping industry. We are urgently addressing costs and all other factors under our control to improve our performance.”
NOL said 2011 revenue decreased 2% to US$9.2 billion. The Group reported a Core EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) loss of US$377 million for the year. It reported a fourth quarter 2011 net loss of US$320 million. NOL’s supply chain management business, APL Logistics, reported record performance in revenue and Core EBIT.
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2011
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2010
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Change %
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4Q11
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4Q10
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Change %
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Revenue (US$m)
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9,211
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9,422
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(2)
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2,403
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2,774
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(13)
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Core EBIT (US$m)
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(377)
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557
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NM
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(277)
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198
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NM
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Net (loss)/profit (US$m)
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(478)
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461
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NM
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(320)
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177
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NM
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nm: not meaningful
BUSINESS SEGMENTS
APL, NOL Group’s liner shipping business, reported 2011 revenue of US$7.9 billion, down 5% from 2010. It announced a Core EBIT loss of US$446 million. Volume increased 5% year-on-year. Average Revenue Per FEU (forty-foot equivalent unit) was down 10%. APL said the average price of bunker fuel was 33% higher in 2011. “The volume increase was offset by downward pressure on freight rates and high fuel costs,” said APL President Kenneth Glenn. “We must continue to drive down costs and make better cargo selection decisions in the face of this industry-wide trend.”
APL Logistics reported 2011 revenue of US$1.4 billion, up 12% from 2010. Core EBIT was US$69 million. Both were all-time highs for the business. Growth in auto logistics and a strong first half in international logistics contributed to the results. “The diversity of our portfolio led to record high revenue and profitability,” said APL Logistics President Jim McAdam. “We will continue to invest in our business infrastructure and logistics network to support business growth.”
OUTLOOK
Recent freight rates show signs of improvement. However the global economy remains uncertain. The container shipping industry continues to face high fuel costs and overcapacity. If these conditions continue, financial performance will remain weak.
2011 OPERATING PERFORMANCE (vs 2010)
Liner Shipping
• Revenue US$7.9 billion, down 5%
• Core EBIT loss US$446 million compared to Core EBIT of US$492 million previously
• Average revenue per FEU US$2,500, down 10%
• Volume 2.98 million FEUs, up 5%
Logistics
• Revenue US$1.4 billion, up 12%
• Core EBIT US$69 million, up 6%
• Core EBIT Margin 4.9% compared to 5.2% previously
4Q11 OPERATING PERFORMANCE (vs 4Q10)
Liner Shipping
• Revenue US$2 billion, down 16%
• Core EBIT loss US$297 million compared to Core EBIT of US$178 million previously
• Average revenue per FEU US$2,342, down 15%
• Volume 0.8 million FEUs, unchanged
Logistics
• Revenue US$390 million, up 3%
• Core EBIT US$20 million, unchanged
• Core EBIT Margin 5.1% compared to 5.3% previously
Beware of post results syndrome. When results are below expectations, short sellers will come like sharks attacking its prey.
tiancai007 ( Date: 23-Feb-2012 02:55) Posted:
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After NOL, cosco will be next?
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will open 1.30?
After NOL, cosco will be next?
Temasek is the main shareholder with more than 50%.
I doubt they will come in to fight the bears when trading starts tomorrow?
:p
teeth53 ( Date: 23-Feb-2012 00:53) Posted:
NOL Group today reported a US$478 million net loss in 2011 following net earnings of US$461 million in 2010. The container shipping and logistics company said unsettled economic conditions, high fuel costs and lower freight rates impacted results.
FULL YEAR RESULTS * FINANCIAL STATEMENT AND RELATED ANNOUNCEMENT
Maybe on shortist top list tomorro morning trading...Others vested BBs may oso buy-in to contain shortist, still STI may again be pull down by this one.
teeth53 thot: A natural, surprising reaction by punters on NOL net lost of US$478 millions..?.
A possible top on SGX Exch...Happi speculating...Analysts will hav a field day down grading tis stk. |
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NOL Group today reported a US$478 million net loss in 2011 following net earnings of US$461 million in 2010. The container shipping and logistics company said unsettled economic conditions, high fuel costs and lower freight rates impacted results.
FULL YEAR RESULTS * FINANCIAL STATEMENT AND RELATED ANNOUNCEMENT
Maybe on shortist top list tomorro morning trading...Others vested BBs may oso buy-in to contain shortist, still STI may again be pull down by this one.
teeth53 thot: A natural, surprising reaction by punters on NOL net lost of US$478 millions..?.
A possible top on SGX Exch...Happi speculating...Analysts will hav a field day down grading tis stk.
after you sifu.. will be ready to buy in when i falls below $1
xing78 ( Date: 22-Feb-2012 20:24) Posted:
the worst than expected losses are good news for me.
see you at $1. :p
gavinl ( Date: 22-Feb-2012 19:52) Posted:
FULL YEAR RESULTS FOR NOL YEAR 2011.
US$478 million loss.
No dividend annouced.
Think will free fall tomorrow. |
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After Wilma, tomollo NOL will be slaughtered by BB.
wangerism ( Date: 22-Feb-2012 21:24) Posted:
guess wat?? ISO prophecy is right afterall. but that was like 2-3mths ago.
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guess wat?? ISO prophecy is right afterall. but that was like 2-3mths ago.
noble reported abt the same lose for 3q if i'm not wrong and it's fell 0.465 cents in a day if i'm right... hopefully nol will be the same also... nol have been losing for the past 2 years... hope it will fall below $1.10 or even $1
xing78 ( Date: 22-Feb-2012 20:24) Posted:
the worst than expected losses are good news for me.
see you at $1. :p
gavinl ( Date: 22-Feb-2012 19:52) Posted:
FULL YEAR RESULTS FOR NOL YEAR 2011.
US$478 million loss.
No dividend annouced.
Think will free fall tomorrow. |
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NOL_FY2011_Results_Press_Release.pdf