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going on the downside to closing 1.16 today.
See many SReits going down too..
Seemed to have found good support at around $2.18. But I suspect the rebound may be limited by the 200d EMA at $2.30. My views...
zhuge_liang ( Date: 15-Jun-2008 20:47) Posted:
| Credit Suisse initiates Ascendas REIT at Outperform, sets $2.86 target price. Broker says Ascendas REIT has outperformed market since Oct, "reflecting its defensive and stable rental income stream." Says stability due to use of long-term sale and leaseback leases, assets being in high-growth segments such as business parks, tips this defensiveness to provide downside protection in current volatile market conditions. Says, "despite concerns of demand moderation from a weaker global economic outlook, we expect demand for the industrial space to be able to absorb new supply." |
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Credit Suisse initiates Ascendas REIT at Outperform, sets $2.86 target price. Broker says Ascendas REIT has outperformed market since Oct, "reflecting its defensive and stable rental income stream." Says stability due to use of long-term sale and leaseback leases, assets being in high-growth segments such as business parks, tips this defensiveness to provide downside protection in current volatile market conditions. Says, "despite concerns of demand moderation from a weaker global economic outlook, we expect demand for the industrial space to be able to absorb new supply."
...but ended w/ $2.34 (up $0.06).
nickyng ( Date: 12-Jun-2008 10:13) Posted:
wah!!! 2.19 today !!! WOOooWWwoooOOoooWWOWWWWwwwwWOoooWW !!
BBs suppressing mkt price har ? to collect low ?!?!
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wah!!! 2.19 today !!! WOOooWWwoooOOoooWWOWWWWwwwwWOoooWW !!
BBs suppressing mkt price har ? to collect low ?!?!
hee
wow...wat happ to this burger??? from 2.40 drop to 2.25 now ?!?!?!? wah!! missed that SHORTING opportunity siah !
:D
Not bad...XD but still holding up.
nah..i will give it a missed...not much "meat" prefer those FAT one like CITYDEV :D
not sure shorting master .. :P been monitoring this, seems like for the last few days ppl short.......hopefully.........maybe you can advise
so wat is the impact?? SHORTing opportunity on news? hee...
OCBC has ALWAYS been the most negative on this counter among the analysts since a couple of years ago. Most of the time they are off target.
One of the top volume today. Any news?
OCBC Investment
Ascendas REIT
Fair Value: S$2.63
DPU growth slowed on fewer acquisitions. Ascendas REIT (AREIT) reported an unexciting 2Q08 results with revenue rising 15% YoY and 4% QoQ to S$80.2m. Distribution per unit (DPU) came in at 3.51 cents +11% YoY and +4% QoQ. This is slightly better than our forecast of 3.4 cents, and we are marginally adjusting our FY08F from 13.4 cents to 13.9 cents. We retain our FY09 estimate of 14.5 cents. The growth driver in the last quarter was from lease renewal and not from acquisition. This is clearly seen from the flat sequential growth of AREIT's investment property portfolio. Its NPI margin remains at 75%, similar to the last 2 quarters, reflecting the difficulty in achieving greater efficiency for industrial assets.
Market getting very crowded. The industrial market space is getting very crowded. There are presently four listed industrial REITs, with JTC REIT expected to come into the market over the next 12-18 months. More importantly, there is very little to differentiate their growth strategies. This means that growth will get more difficult and less accretive. AREIT's situation is compounded by market continuing to price in strong growth.
Taking greater risks to deliver growth. One way to avoid the price war with other REITs is to develop its own properties. Presently, AREIT has projects (both started and yet to start) worth about S$338m. This is about the maximum that it can take based on present REIT rules and its asset size of about S$3.3bn. Assuming that it takes about 1.5 years to complete these projects, this means that AREIT's annual capacity for new development project is at best S$200-300m. We believe this is below market growth expectation and perhaps explains the share price weakness. Another possibility open to AREIT is via M&A with other smaller players (e.g. Cambridge or MacarthurCook). Whichever route AREIT takes, it means that the risk profile is likely to rise.
Maintain HOLD. The key worry for AREIT is its high price-to-book ratio of about 1.65x (down from 2.1x since our last report in July). With the industrial REIT space getting very crowded, we see a high risk of market being disappointed . Alternatively, AREIT should start to moderate expectations. Finally, in terms of valuation, we maintain our fair value of S$2.63 and HOLD rating.
Citigroup Global Markets
BUY: Results Ahead of Market Expectations + New Acquisitions
Results ahead of market expectations ? For 2QFY08, A-REIT recorded a 3.7% rise in revenue and 3.9% rise distributable income with improved rental and occupancy. DPU was 3.51 cents (vs 3.37 in 1QFY08). This translates to an annualised DPU of 13.8 cents, in line with our expectations but ahead of consensus? 13.2 cents for FY08.
Occupancy rate at new high ? Average occupancy rate of its multi-tenanted buildings continues to rise to 96.2% from 95% a quarter ago and 94.3% a year ago. Its overall portfolio occupancy rate also hit a new high of 98.2%.
Sharp rise in rental rates ? Apart from improved occupancy, Science & Biz Park, and Hi-tech industrial space were renewed at rental rates 40-56% above their prevailing rates. Light industrial and logistics space were renewed at 4.5% and 9.5% higher respectively.
Secures S$277m worth of new development projects ? This includes two suburban business park facilities and an industrial facility (see Figure 2 for details). Completion is scheduled for 3QFY09 to 3QFY11. We believe initial yields on these developments are probably around 8.5% to 9%, similar to past development properties. A-REIT still has capacity for another S$150m worth of development properties.
Reiterate BUY ? Stock is worth S$2.90 inclusive of 12-mth fwd DPU of 13.8 cents of S$2.76.
DBS Vickers - Ascendas REIT (AREIT SP)
Turning to development projects?
S$2.39 BUYPrice Target : S$ 3.18 (Prev S$ 3.16)
Gross revenue and net income available for distribution grew 15% y-o-y to S$80.2m and S$46.5m respectively, due to additional rental income from completed acquisitions. DPU increased 11% to 3.51 cents.
As at 30 Sep 07, A-REIT has an aggregate leverage of 38.4%, with an average 91% of interest exposure fixed at a weighted average cost of 3.43% for a term of 4.2 years.
A-REIT announced that it has committed to develop projects (i.e. Plot 8 Changi Business Park and an industrial facility at Pioneer Walk) at a total cost of S$277m.
DBS Vickers
Maintain Buy for Ascendas REIT with raised target price of S$3.18 (Prev S$3.16). Moving forward, DBS Research expects the rate of acquisition to maintain at a slower pace.
OCBC - Ascendas REIT: Market continues to expect strong growth
DPU growth slowed on fewer acquisitions. Ascendas REIT (AREIT) reported an unexciting 2Q08 results with revenue rising 15% YoY and 4% QoQ to S$80.2m. Distribution per unit (DPU) came in at 3.51 cents +11% YoY and +4% QoQ. This is slightly better than our forecast of 3.4 cents, and we are marginally adjusting our FY08F from 13.4 cents to 13.9 cents. We retain our FY09 estimate of 14.5 cents. The growth driver in the last quarter was from lease renewal and not from acquisition. This is clearly seen from the flat sequential growth of AREIT's investment property portfolio. Its NPI margin remains at 75%, similar to the last 2 quarters, reflecting thedifficulty in achieving greater efficiency for industrial assets.
Market getting very crowded. The industrial market space is getting very crowded. There are presently four listed industrial REITs, with JTC REIT expected to come into the market over the next 12-18 months. More importantly, there is very little to differentiate their growth strategies. This means that growth will get more difficult and less accretive. AREIT's situation is compounded by market continuing to price in strong growth.
Taking greater risks to deliver growth. One way to avoid the price war with other REITs is to develop its own properties. Presently, AREIT has projects (both started and yet to start) worth about S$338m. This is about the maximum that it can take based on present REIT rules and its asset size of about S$3.3bn. Assuming that it takes about 1.5 years to complete these projects, this means that AREIT's annual capacity for new development project is at best S$200-300m. We believe this is below market growth expectation and perhaps explains the share price weakness. Another possibility open to AREIT is via M&A with other smaller players (e.g. Cambridge or MacarthurCook). Whichever route AREIT takes, it means that the risk profile is likely to rise.
Maintain HOLD. The key worry for AREIT is its high price-to-book ratio of about 1.65x (down from 2.1x since our last report in July). With the industrial REIT space getting very crowded, we see a high risk of market being disappointed unless REITs are able to deliver strong growth. Alternatively, AREIT should start to moderate expectations. Finally, in terms of valuation, we maintain our fair value of S$2.63 and HOLD rating.
But DBS Vickers has recommended the TP of $3.16 on 20.7.07 at 2:16 pm whereas OCBC's recommendation is out at 12:28pm.
So I just bought it on 20.7.07 based on DBS Vickers' recommendation. Think I better sell it on Monday! Can these brokers be realiable?
http://www.remisiers.org/research//AREIT20072007%20tp3.16dbs.pdf
Ascendas REIT: Will it be the M&A aggressor?
Ascendas REIT (AREIT) reported 1Q08 results with revenue rising 13.7% YoY and 4.5% QoQ to S$77.3m. Distribution per unit (DPU) rose 9.1% YoY but only 2.1% QoQ to 3.37 cents, in line with our forecast of 3.35 cents. The marginal DPU growth is mainly attributed to 1 acquisition over the last quarter. Going forward, the key issue with AREIT is market?s continued expectation of strong growth as reflected in its 2.1x Price to Book. The industrial REIT market is definitively getting very crowded and the same piece-meal acquisition growth strategy is getting increasingly difficult. However, AREIT could potentially buy out a rival industrial REIT to meet growth expectations. Finally in terms of valuation, we have allowed for AREIT's asset size to increase from its current S$3.3b to S$5.0bn over the next 2 years. And on this target asset size basis, our fair value is S$2.63. We maintain our HOLD rating
DPU growth slowed on fewer acquisitions. Ascendas REIT (AREIT) reported its 1Q08 results with revenue rising 13.7% YoY and 4.5% QoQ to S$77.3m. Distribution per unit (DPU) was reported at 3.37cents, +9.1% YoY and only 2.1% QoQ, in line with our forecast of 3.35 cents. The marginal DPU growth is mainly attributed to the acquisition of 1 asset worth S$11.2m over the last quarter.
No guidance for acquisition in FY08. The key earnings driver for AREIT has been its aggressive strategy to acquire assets. AREIT acquired S$488m of assets in FY07, S$656m in FY06 and S$1,000m in FY05. AREIT has not given any guidance with respect to target acquisitions in FY08, but based on the already announced contracts and S&P agreements, it has a further S$148m to complete. This brings the YTD potential acquisition to only S$159.2m. For FY08, we forecast that it could potentially acquire about S$300m-S$400m of assets.
Market competition is intensifying. The main reason is that the industrial market space is getting very crowded. There are presently four industrial REIT players in the market, i.e. AREIT, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Cambridge Industrial Trust and most recently MacarthurCook Industrial REIT (listed last quarter). Another industrial REIT i.e. JTC REIT will probably be listed over the next 12 to 18 months. More importantly, there is very little difference between these REITs as they all adopt the same acquisition-led growth strategy. And the implication is that growth for all the industrial REITs will get more and more difficult. The ability to grow notwithstanding, the market continues to expect these REITs to continue to grow rapidly as reflected by their respective Price to Book value of 1.4-2.0x. We see the next leg of growth to likely come from M&A between the REITs. The key issue is who is likely to be the aggressor.
Maintain HOLD. The key worry for AREIT is its high Price/Book ratio of about 2.1x. More importantly with the industrial REIT space getting very crowded, we see a high risk of market being disappointed unless they are able to merge or acquire a competitor. Finally in terms of valuation, we have allowed for AREIT's asset size to increase from its current S$3.3b to S$5.0bn over the next 2 years. On this target asset size basis, our fair value is S$2.63. We maintain our HOLD rating.
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