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Hi cyjjerry85. You're welcome. I got it from a Reuters article about the Standard & Poor's report.
There is seldom good news for this counter. I hope some bigger company purchases Chartered. It might do better this way.
Hi ZhugeLiang...thanks for sharing the info...may we kindly know where you got this from?
this really doesn't sound good for Chartered...a decline of 10%-15% in sales certainly doesn't sound too good at all ..although its a gauge ..the tech companies are going to be much affected
=(
zhuge_liang ( Date: 08-Jun-2008 00:35) Posted:
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The current U.S. economic downturn will take some of the wind out of the semiconductor "sail" (and sales), according to data for the past 23 years. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services discusses the scenarios from a U.S. downturn and their impact on the credit risks of Asian hi-tech companies in South and Southeast Asia and Greater China in a report released 5/6, titled "Hi-Tech Companies In South, Southeast Asia And Greater China--Are The Chips Stacked Against Them In U.S. Downturn?"
"Our base-case scenario on the U.S. is that it will experience a mild recession through the first half of 2009," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Wee Lee Cheng. "We expect this would in turn spark a similarly mild downturn in the semiconductor industry, where semiconductor sales for 2008 would be flat at 2007 levels. There will be some impact on hi-tech companies in Asia."
"However, the overall outsourcing trend and continued demand from Asia would offset lower demand from the U.S.," Mr. Cheng added. "In this scenario, we expect CSM and UTAC to be vulnerable to rating or outlook changes, while STATS and ASAT Holdings Ltd. are possibly exposed to such changes."
Our other scenario is for a more severe U.S. recession, in which we expect worldwide semiconductor sales to decline 10%-15% in 2008. Asia's hi-tech companies will face a substantial drop in shipment volumes.
"In the more severe downturn scenario, we expect 4 tech companies to be vulnerable to either rating or outlook changes: CSM, UTAC, STATS and ASAT Holdings. One other company, UMC, could be exposed to such changes," Mr. Cheng said.
Although the cycles for worldwide semiconductor sales and U.S. GDP growth rates appear to be somewhat correlated, their magnitudes tend to differ, especially in the past 5 years. The report discusses the factors that affect the magnitude of the semiconductor sales cycle.
huh...how come "Outperform" ..still only target price $0.98...now already approximately 10 cents away
Inflation May Benefit Chartered Semi - Macquarie
Price inflation could turn out to be good for Chartered Semi (C27.SG), Macquarie says in report. Notes foundry leader TSMC (2330.TW) indicated at recent technology forum that it's considering raising wafer ASP for high-end 65/90/130nm nodes; says price hike likely to see some success as TSMC "running full," has large market share of these nodes. "We believe a better pricing environment, especially one led by TSMC, will certainly help boost returns," analyst Patrick Yau writes. Says already expects 2H08 up 13% on-half on first source orders from design wins 12-18 months ago, with customers such as TI, Qualcomm, Infineon, Broadcom migrating to 65nm; "There is room for more upside if Chartered gains more volume as customers respond to TSMC's new pricing environment." Keeps at Outperform with target price at S$0.98, implying 5X EV/EBITDA, 1.0X P/BV for 2008E, set at lower end of five-year range, near SARS-period levels. Share closed up 1.2% at S$0.85.
it is the same scenario today....big buy ups and also big sell downs...they come in bulk quantities (as in single transactions)
do they (BBs) actually wan it to go up or go down...very big buy ups and sell downs
| Time | Last | Volume | Buy/Sell |
| 14:42:01 | 0.830 | 178,000 | Sell Down |
| 14:41:58 | 0.830 | 300,000 | Sell Down |
| 14:23:06 | 0.835 | 50,000 | Buy Up |
| 14:18:24 | 0.835 | 132,000 | Sell Down |
| 12:29:58 | 0.835 | 881,000 | Buy Up |
| 12:29:40 | 0.835 | 40,000 | Buy Up |
| 12:29:01 | 0.835 | 89,000 | Sell Down |
| 12:27:53 | 0.835 | 1,000 | Sell Down |
| 12:27:41 | 0.835 | 636,000 | Buy Up |
| 12:20:37 | 0.830 | 70,000 | Sell Down |
| 12:18:55 | 0.835 | 383,000 | Sell Down |
Hi aircraft,
In your opinion as a professional in the semi-con industry, what are the chances of Chartered turning round to profitability?
aircraft ( Date: 31-May-2008 12:42) Posted:
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TSMC
the world’s largest foundry and key competitor of CSM said that due to stronger than expected demand conditions, it is looking to raise selling price of its chips. Samsung, the world’s largest producer of chips also predicts a recovery in chip prices later this year as demand picks up and supply remains under control. Major chip companies such as Hynix, Qimonda and Nanya have reduced chip equipment spending on the back of record losses and this has resulted in a 12% price gain for DRAM chips this quarter. Prices had plunged 85% last year.
CSM is trading at 1x price to book and price to sales versus TSMC’s 3.5x price to book and 5.5x price to sales. While it is understandable that CSM will continue to trade at a discount to TSMC given that it is a distant no 3, however, CSM’s price to sales of 1x is at a significant discount to UMC's 2.7x. Its share price has also lagged both TSMC and UMC significantly, hence there is likely scope for narrowing of the gap.
The above news bodes well for both CSM.
As I'm in a major U.S MNC in semicon, am skeptical bout this industry and it's stock value.. losing $$ worldwide for long time already..
Looking from the chart, it looks to be uptrending actually. The bottom was at mid-March.
within this week alone, it is rising close to 10cents...
wad happened..any news?
Indeed, a bit oversold but sentiments not very good. Can wait a while (my opinion only). I would normally wait for the oversold signals to turn up before comitting. Anyway, this company is not making money most of the times, so don't put too much into this. Just for trading is ok.
Good time to buy now?
TA charts show bearish sentiment for this counter. Acc/dist and chaikin dropping.
Yup. This industry is cyclical.
zhuge_liang ( Date: 21-May-2008 00:28) Posted:
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CSM fell after one of its suppliers, Soitec SA, said chip demand slowed.
Wah... this counter had a big run up since middle of March.
If the rumours don't turn up to be true, it will be quite bad.
CSM had jumped on rumours of a major contarct win and privatisation talks. However, a local research downplayed speculations that it had won some 'sizeable orders'.
CSM said on Wednesday it was open to strategic investors and remained on the hunt for new factory capacity.
"Chartered is open to considering strategic investors if and when such opportunities arise," Chartered spokeswoman Tiffany Sparks told Reuters in an emailed reply to questions.
"We need to evaluate such opportunities on a case-by-case basis and ensure that it is in the interest of all shareholders," she said.
Temasek Holdings controls around 59% of Chartered, according to data from Thomson Reuters. The company is valued at around US$1.7 billion.
According to investment bankers, Chartered held talks with Chinese rival Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) late last year on a possible strategic investment by the latter. Citigroup was said to be advising Chartered on the deal, but the talks fell through.
The Chartered spokeswoman declined to commment on the talks, but added it was common for investment bankers to approach management with "various proposals of similar nature".
SMIC, China's largest contract maker of semiconductors, is also scouting for a potential suitor. Its shares soared last month amid renewed talk the struggling chipmaker was close to selling a stake to a major investor to tide it through a global chip downturn. SMIC said in Mar it was in advanced talks to sell shares to a strategic investor.
SMIC, hard-hit by plummeting prices for computer memory chips, has forecast a return to profit in the fourth quarter of this year after posting steep losses in 2006 and 2007.
Chartered will continue to explore opportunities to acquire new factory capacity worldwide, its spokeswoman added.
Last month, Chartered CEO Chia Song Hwee said the company was seeking more 8" wafer plants, as demand remained strong for the older chip-making technology.
The company reported a 62% drop in first-quarter net profit to US$2.4 million as demand for video game consoles, personal computers and communication equipment weakened.