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Repost from earlier on:
This is what I think:
The new conversion notes for 950 million shares @0.38cts is a good sign.
It show Hedge funds Abax is confident of Unifiber business outlook.
With their 43yrs of forest concession right of 268,585 hectares in South Kalimantan, a newly build wood chips mill and the next coming US$863 pulp mill. UFS will be a complete fully integrated timber company.
The bad news:
The only issue stopping them is the ENVIRONMENTAL groups that are now lobbying Abax to drop the US$200 millions injection to help to build the new pulp mill.. Unifiber has been involved in similar cases. Environmental pressure forced Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank to pull out of successive deals to finance Unifiber's attempted $US600 million purchase of another Kalimantan mill at Kiana Kertas. If they success again, UFS will have problem building their pulp mill.
There is this little clause on Abax US$200 million conversion notes:
Read carefully:
The Warrants shall be convertible into new shares at S$0.38 per share, subject to any Exercise Price Adjustment.
Exercise Price Adjustment :
After six months from the respective Warrants Issue Dates, and on every six monthly periods thereafter, in the event that the Volume Weighted Average Price (" VWAP") of the preceding fifteen trading days for the Company's shares is below S$0.30 per share, then the Exercise Price shall be adjusted to that VWAP for all respective Warrants not exercised as of such date. This adjustment is subject to a maximum adjustment to S$0.20 per share. For the avoidance of doubt, the Exercise Price Adjustment applies only to downward adjustments of the Exercise Price.
I believe all those vested in UFS, bought their UFS shares @ below 0.30cts. I think for the next few months till next year, the share price will cap between 0.20cts to 0.30cts range.
I would suggest to take profits first if any and come back later.
Just to add:
If news out that Kiani Kertas deals is totally called off for good. Price may even drop down again.
My 2 cents.
This is what I think:
The new conversion notes for 950 million shares @0.38cts is a good sign.
It show Hedge funds Abax is confident of Unifiber business outlook.
With their 43yrs of forest concession right of 268,585 hectares in South Kalimantan, a newly build wood chips mill and the next coming US$863 pulp mill. UFS will be a complete fully integrated timber company.
The only issue stopping them is the ENVIRONMENTAL groups that are now lobbying Abax to drop the US$200 millions injection to help to build the new pulp mill.. Unifiber has been involved in similar cases. Environmental pressure forced Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank to pull out of successive deals to finance Unifiber's attempted $US600 million purchase of another Kalimantan mill at Kiana Kertas. If they success again, UFS will have problem building their pulp mill.
There is this little clause on Abax US$200 million conversion notes:
Read carefully:
The Warrants shall be convertible into new shares at S$0.38 per share, subject to any Exercise Price Adjustment.
Exercise Price Adjustment :
After six months from the respective Warrants Issue Dates, and on every six monthly periods thereafter, in the event that the Volume Weighted Average Price ("
I believe all those vested in UFS, bought their UFS shares @ below 0.30cts.
I think for the next few months till next year, the share price will cap between 0.20cts to 0.30cts range.
I would suggest to take profits first if any and come back later.
Just to add:
If news out that Kiani Kertas deals is totally called off for good. Price may drop down again.
My 2 cents.
Pulp mill delays make investing a risky business
Posted
Analysts doubt construction of the Gunns mill will go ahead (ABC TV)
Gunns Limited has previously threatened to build its mill in another country if it is not given the permission it needs within the timeframe set down.
But today, the company today reassured investors that it was still committed to building it in Tasmania.
With an election looming though and the very real prospect of further delays, analysts are far from certain that construction of the mill will go ahead.
The proposed mill will be the largest ever investment by the private sector in Tasmania and the biggest ever by the forestry sector in Australia.
The increase in the value of pulp compared to the current level of woodchip exports will reduce Australia's balance of trade by 25 per cent.
According to Gunns, the project will add $6.7 billion or 2.5 per cent to the Tasmanian economy.
Should the Bell Bay Pulp Mill not go ahead, the Tasmanian Government will not be the only loser. Investors in Gunns will also be spitting chips.
Today the company released its full-year earnings, reporting a net profit after tax of $88 million, just 1 per cent better than last year.
Much of the company's future growth hinges on the approval of the Tasmanian mill.
The head of research at Baillieu Stockbroking, former forester Ivor Ries, says his company is currently recommending Gunns to their investors, despite the fact that every day the project is delayed is said to add $1 million to the company's costs.
"The attraction of the company is the fact that it's Australia's, indeed the Asia Pacific's largest owner of forest estates," he said.
"They own about 200,000 hectares of primarily plantation forest."
Mr Ries says Gunns' investors go through environmental questions in great detail.
"Certainly most of the overseas pension funds that have invested in them will come to us and will discuss the environmental issues in enormous detail before they invest," he said.
"We rank forestry companies on a scale of between 0 and 100 in terms of their impact on the environment.
"One that's scoring 100 is one which has a complete scorched earth policy and not planting any trees and causing enormous destruction.
"The one at the other end has got a completely sustainable business model and is not causing maximum damage to the environment.
"Gunns are probably in the top decile in the world in terms of environmental impact, that is, for every dollar of revenue, less environmental impact than most other companies in their space."
Asian potential
Forest and wood product economist Robert Eastment has recently returned from a study tour of Finland, Brazil and Chile.
He took five independents and two Liberal members of the Tasmanian Parliament to observe the operations of similar pulp mills to that being proposed by Gunns.
Mr Eastment has worked for both Gunns and the environmental lobby, but stresses that he is not aligned to either.
But he says the potential for Gunns to build its mill in Indonesia or Malaysia is very real, particularly given its financial obligations to shareholders.
"Under [the] ASIC code you've got your regulations, yet the board of directors have their fiduciary duty to the shareholders' wealth as to whether or not they can afford to lose that million dollars a day from the company in a standing position," he said.
"If you can bring the pulp mill back to the plantations or the forests and you've got cheaper wood into the mill going to the pulp mill, then the mill itself will be able to produce and export pulp at a more competitive price.
"If you've got to take the woodchips themselves halfway round the world and turn it into pulp in say China or Vietnam or somewhere like that, costs of the wood in the mill gate there will be much higher and the mill will be less competitive."
While Gunns would still have to meet environmental benchmarks if it shifted the mill to Malaysia or Indonesia, Mr Eastment says they would "almost certainly" not be as high as in Tasmania.
"If Tasmania is unable to value-add the woodchips in Tasmania itself, the future will be very, very hard," he said.
"I don't think people understand that Gunns and any other woodchip exporter will certainly find the future challenging. The markets for woodchips are not really expanding and therefore there's an increasing supply into a fairly stable market.
"What's going to happen to those woodchips? It will be very, very hard to sell some of them, and if they do they might be able to sell them into mills in somewhere like China, but they will be at pretty well rock-bottom prices."