Post Reply
201-220 of 280
Guidance is just an euphemism. A better sounding term. If a company guides for a higher profit, it's a guidance. If a company guides for a lower profit or a loss, is it not a warning? If you're from the company, which term would you use regardless of the profitability? Of course the better sounding term. Makes sense? Sounds logical?
Dear Ultrameg,
It is profit guidance not profit warning. That is entirely different concept/perception/implication I suppose.
Hulumas again..... I be preparing to stretch my neck long long for the bonus share. Tot Zhuge mentioned profit warning...
Hulumas ( Date: 25-Apr-2008 21:38) Posted:
|
Profit warning from China Jishan. How could the outlook change so fast in 3 week? At least 2 of the reasons given below are not new.
1Q08 performance was impacted by the following reasons:
- The severe snow storms earlier this year has caused raw material prices and operating costs to increase further;
- Continued rise in the value of the RMB; and
- Fair value loss and loss on disposal on investments held for trading.
Long awaited Jishan news........
Today A.G.M. indicating better profitable prospect throughout 2008 than the previous year. Thanks to the strategic business operation reformation focusing on fabricating processes which Jishan has maintained its competitive advantages against its peers and as a core and more net income generated from this services/factory operation. RMB currency appreciation will no longer a set back towards the company profit margin as more sectoral business operation faster revenue growth domestically, rather than its export orientated sectoral operation. Hence, its share price back to Sgd. 0.16 hoding for mid term would not be impossible! Possible of Bonus issue on the card too.(CAVEAT EMPTOR)
Dear Readers,
I 'll queue to buy at Sgd. 0.075 tomorrow.
Dear Farmer,
No matter how, I feel tomorrow is the best time to buy!
November 19, 2007
DMG Research
3Q07 Results Review Private Circulation Only
SELL Downgrade
Price SGD0.08 Target SGD0.07
Challenging environment ahead
3Q07 net profit slumped 77% YoY to RMB0.3m, on the back of a 15% fall in revenue to RMB60.2m. This was largely attributed to higher operating expenses and the decline in export sales. We expect the operating environment to be increasingly difficult for Jishan in the coming year. On top of that, the stock is trading at lofty levels relative to the industry. We downgrade our recommendation to SELL.
3Q07 sales declined. Although Jishan has been focusing its efforts on domestic sales, revenue fell 14.6% YoY to RMB60.2m. This was largely due to the highly competitive environment facing the industry. Both export sales and domestic sales fell, by 27.6% YoY and 3.4% YoY respectively. The decline was partially offset by increase in other operating income, arising from the gain on disposal of trading investments held. However, the higher cost of raw materials, particularly dyes and utilities, resulted in the 77.0% YoY slump in net profit to a mere S$0.3m. Gross profit margin was 11.1% in 3Q07, compared with 12.6% in 3Q06 and 12.7% in 2Q07.
A challenging textile export market. In 2005, China and the EU had reached an agreement to resume quotas on textile exports from China. This agreement will be expiring on 31 Dec 2007. Hence, from 1 Jan 2008, import barriers to Chinese textiles will be lifted (no limits on quantity imported), and the EU will closely monitor the imports of Chinese textiles. While this is expected to boost textile exports from China, it could also result in an even more competitive textile export market. On top of that, the Chinese government has reduced tax rebates for textile exports from 11% to 5% in 2007. These factors are likely to result in a more challenging environment for the textile export market.
Hence, management plans to continue its efforts to expand its domestic market and seek out M&A opportunities within and outside the industry.
Valuation and recommendation. For 9M07, Jishan achieved a net profit of RMB3.4m. We estimate earnings of RMB5.2m (EPS: 1.7 RMB cents) for FY07 and RMB6.2m (EPS: 2.1 RMB cents) for FY08. At S$0.08, the stock is trading at close to 24x FY07 PE, which is high compared to industry average of 9x. Taking into consideration the challenging operating environment ahead, we ascribe a P/B ratio of 0.7x for Jishan. This translates into a target price of S$0.07 We downgrade our recommendation to SELL.
There's always a reason to be afraid. Be "very afraid" i mean in order not to loose your pants!
Dear Farmer,
I am afraid. I beg to differ entirely to your view!
Hulumas,
I try not to touch penny stocks again ever since I've switch to become a value and long term investor. Moreover, this counter is still stuck in a tunnel long and deep, have not seen the silvering light yet. So beware, you may need to hold the baby for a long time to come.
Dear Farmer,
Time to buy again then!
Textile industry in China are going thru a very difficult era ever since EU and US limits their import 2 years ago. Within, it's also facing fears competition and razor thin margin. I think it's better to avoid this counter for now unless the mgmt take actions to overturn the current situation.
I had bought some before due to its cheap valuation but have since sold it off at a small loss as it's value are getting cheaper each day. Just my view.
Dear Readers,
As a buyer, I thank to UBS giving me opportunity to buy Jishan on its very low radiculously cheap price!
Hi readers,
Today i did bought some jishan shares, to my surprise counter party is from UBS Warburg (s).
Dear Readers,
Despite OCBC call to sell. I am vested to Jishan, I 'll keep buying for more lots everyday!
so zhuge_liang you mean its not that good to buy right cos of the RMb and export tax rebates. and also cos ocbc says sell at 0.09.
You'll never go wrong if you have loads of cash and keep buying at low levels.
The strong RMB and cut in export tax rebates have an adverse effect on China's textile industry. OCBC has a SELL with a tp of $0.09.
hi hulumas i am beginning to like your way of trading, that's buy low and sell at my target price. hope it works for me too in the future.
Dear Readers,
It seems confirm that Jishan is bottomed out now! Tomorrow I 'll requeue to buy again.