Popular   

Popular, good to buy and hold for long term?

Popular has a current NET CASH position of $101million or 12 cents a share.  Plus  cashflow of $19.1m or 2.27cents/ share  from potential sale of remaining 18 Shelford units (already TOP).  Plus  cashflow from the potential sale of soon to be TOP 8 Raja development  of $81.9m or 9.74 cents/ share.

Sum of these gives you 24 cents.

ah_huat      ( Date: 25-Oct-2012 17:11) Posted: IMHO, that's a farce.  I had expected they would do something like that.  The only reason I can think of why they doing this is bocoz of the financial impact it would have on net cash is they do not.  What kinda impact?  Simple. By just selling properties that have TOP or soon to TOP, It would bring net cash to close to the current share price of this stock, i.e. 24 cents.  Just NET CASH ALONE. So what does that mean for the  their entire businesses and other properties?  That's Simple.... FOC lor! Seriously, how to PRIVATISE for cheap like that?  Shareholders should go down to this EGM and vote against it.  And SGX needs to ensure Mr. Popular abstains from voting.  Why? Coz it is in HIS interest  and not minority shareholders that it passes.

 

Next is Property development 8 Raja..... which I just learn from someone who attended the last AGM that they haven't even launch yet??  My goodness 5 years!!!! And Still not launched yet.... lol.  Reason given?  The project has to wait till TOP first coz it is difficult to sell as it does not have a showroom.  Seriously?  Come on lah.  So how those developers selling UK, Australia, and Malaysia properties do it?  Got showroom mei?  Still sell like hot cakes.

 

In any case, no more excuses lah.  Why?  Coz 8 Raja gonna TOP leow lor.  See Pic of 8 Raja taken in Sept.  http://postimage.org/image/57owk9lud/c2dba947/

 

We will likely see this launched sometime in their 3^rd quarter, i.e. between Nov – Jan.

 

This is located diagonal from Thomson Medical Centre.  Near Novena.  Very Prime.  Should be easy to sell (see link which shows 368 Thomson, a 168 unit development directly next to 8 Raja, selling out within first few days of launch).

 

  http://keithyip.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/1.pdf

 

The development, 8 Raja, comprise 13 levels of 26 large and extra large freehold units with a total sellable area of 46,735 sqft.  Prices psf escalates the higher you go, i.e. lowest floor cheapest, highest floor most expensive.   Using the selling price of their mid level unit, less 8% developer discount, of $1,753 psf.  (By the way, these are numbers I got from their property agent hor.  U can easily verify this if you want to.)  Upon launch, this development would potentially generate $81.9m in revenue (9.74 cents per share).  This would in turn boost NET CASH by almost the same amount.  Why?  Er, coz project would have TOP leow ma.

 

So how profitable could this project be?  Well, based on their average selling price of approx. $1,753 psf, less low freehold land cost of $687 psf plot ratio purchased in 2007, and less a relatively generous total development cost estimate of $450 psf or $4,844 psm (See pg 8 of below link).  This project alone could potentially generate profit before tax of $28.8m.  

 

http://rlb.com/rlb.com/pdf/research/RLB_Singapore_Report_September_2012.pdf

 

Just when you though they got no more bloody excuses for not selling and realizing the profits on this development, they come up with another one…… leasing business.  LOL. 

 

 

Just in case u think I talk C... Sing song below, I will do the computation just to show u ah...

Let start with 18 Shelford in Adam Road. 

TOP in Sept 2010. 2 LONG YEARS AGO!!! Still have 10,635 sqft or almost 25% of net sellable area remaining unsold.  2 years after TOP leow, still can't or don't wanna sell? Ur kidding right? 

Based on 8 units sold in 2011  from 18 Shelford, it  generated revenues of $29.6m from the sale of  area totalling 16,512 sqft.  This works to an ave selling price of  $1,793 psf. 

The remaining  properties at 18 Shelford  has a book value of $15.2m comprising 988 sqm or 10,635 sqft of net sellable area (see page 105 of latest AR).  Based on the above selling price, When  sold, these should generate revenues of $19.1m and boost NET CASH by  the same amount  (2.3 cents per share). 

Between Book Value and potential revenue is a difference  of almost $4million .... which, along with their retail properties owned,  will probably never be realised (as long as we remain shareholders) now that they are telling us they wanna " Moon Walk" backwards with this leasing Biz.  Haha.         

ah_huat      ( Date: 25-Oct-2012 17:11) Posted: IMHO, that's a farce.  I had expected they would do something like that.  The only reason I can think of why they doing this is bocoz of the financial impact it would have on net cash is they do not.  What kinda impact?  Simple. By just selling properties that have TOP or soon to TOP, It would bring net cash to close to the current share price of this stock, i.e. 24 cents.  Just NET CASH ALONE. So what does that mean for the  their entire businesses and other properties?  That's Simple.... FOC lor! Seriously, how to PRIVATISE for cheap like that?  Shareholders should go down to this EGM and vote against it.  And SGX needs to ensure Mr. Popular abstains from voting.  Why? Coz it is in HIS interest  and not minority shareholders that it passes.

 

Er.... again. Wrote this more than 1 YEAR AGO.....

So how many units they sold from 8 RAJA???

Ai Yo, still need to ask mei?    Of Coz ZERO LAH!!!! LOL

Oei, by next month it will be 5 LONG YEARS since they acquired the land for redevelopment leh. 

In the World of Singapore Property Developers, if this was a race between the Tortoise and the Rabbit, wanna guess which one of these Popular would likely be???

Neither  Hor.... in this scenario, the Rabbit, apart from take a  short nap,  would still have time to take a shower, dinner with a date, and a good night sleep, then join the race and finish it.  Popular leh?  Er, they would still be at the starting line.... tying their shoelaces. LOL

So you think they not dragging their feet on selling these mei???  Now they telling us they wanna drag their feet somemore and run backwards. LOL. 

PRIVATISATION LAH!!!

 

ah_huat      ( Date: 02-Sep-2011 16:30) Posted: Let me again do a Mastercard Ad for properties just next to or very close to 8 Raja just for kicks.  This is ONLY for caveats lodge recently between May to August this yr hor. The Arte: 12 units SOLD,  Vista Residences: 18 units SOLD, 8 Raja: ZERO? ........ Priceless. So Why Leh?  Why can't sell? Er, my dear Friends, have u though that perhaps it could be PRICING?

 

U think I am Kidding about the PRIVATISATION shit hah? 

I wrote this more that 1 YEAR AGO. 

Wanna make a guess how many they sold?

 

ah_huat      ( Date: 01-Sep-2011 08:16) Posted: Thks bro. Talking about them selling any more 18 Shelford and 8 Raja.  Why do I get the feeling that they seem to be dragging their feet when it comes to marketing these?  These areas hard to sell mei?  No hor!  So why?  I don't know about them.  But if it were me and I was muling a Privatisation.  Guess what?  The LAST THING I wanna do is to monitize these assets quickly lor.  That's same as SHOOTING myself in the backside.  lol I will talk about these next and the MASSIVE financial impact this would have on net cash if these were sold off.  ivanignatius      ( Date: 01-Sep-2011 03:20) Posted: Hi, this is a very good standard of analysis on Popular: Ah Huat and the rest of you really know your stuff.   Thanks for that, folks.   I bought this a few years ago, and it has held up incredibly well except for a brief dip in the bottom of the crisis.   And it loyally pays a big dividend.   The privatisation angle is interesting, and when they sell the last Shelford units they'll have even more cash.   All looks good for this counter.   Reminds me a lot of Second Chance, another stock that is ignored by analysts, but pays nearly 10% a year in dividend.

 

IMHO, that's a farce.  I had expected they would do something like that.  The only reason I can think of why they doing this is bocoz of the financial impact it would have on net cash is they do not. 

What kinda impact?  Simple. By just selling properties that have TOP or soon to TOP, It would bring net cash to close to the current share price of this stock, i.e. 24 cents.  Just NET CASH ALONE.

So what does that mean for the  their entire businesses and other properties?  That's Simple.... FOC lor!

Seriously, how to PRIVATISE for cheap like that?  Shareholders should go down to this EGM and vote against it.  And SGX needs to ensure Mr. Popular abstains from voting.  Why? Coz it is in HIS interest  and not minority shareholders that it passes.

 

 

 

EGM on 9 Nov for approval on holding property to lease and manage. Are they thinking for running service apartment?

 

Looks like Mr Popular's buying again. Another 395 lots.  Paid up to 25 cents this round. I agree with u Guava, I too think he's buying to protect himself...... but for very different reasons than those u might be thinking of.

Moving forward, there maybe some more small buying, but nothing too significant lah.

Yup. Harris Bookstore has been a  relative Lemon lah.  But u know the good thing about Mr pop.?  He's not a sentimental kind of guy.  If an outlet can't make money, it gets shut in a blink of an eye.  Guess what?  Now Harris got only 1 outlet left in Singapore at 313 Somerset.  No more financial impact fr these anymore.  Is the last outlet profitable? I think so.  But pls don't take my word for it lah.  This weekend while ur going shopping, pop by and have a look for yourselves lor.

By the way, another potential lemon might  be Prologue at ION.  Somehow they can't seem to be able to draw traffic there. IMHO, It is a wonderful bookshop so I m Not sure why?  Perhaps it's the design of the building?  Perhaps not enough targeted marketing so people don't know it exist?  Perhaps it's the brand name?  In any case, compared to a typical Popular outlet, traffic is relatively weak.  I think when e lease ends, this one could potentially shut.

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 04-Oct-2012 11:31) Posted: Maybe Mr.Pop buying up shares to protect himself. Results quite pathetic and hear Harris Bookstores  investment is a lemon. Property business already hitting ceiling as land now very ex. ah_huat      ( Date: 02-Oct-2012 17:36) Posted: Wow! I think ur right. Some serious accumulation going on today.... I wonder why?  Again high volume for this counter.  Looking at full yr and 1Q results. Only so so what.  So why? Looks like I gotta disect this one and see.... stay tune....

 

Maybe Mr.Pop buying up shares to protect himself. Results quite pathetic and hear Harris Bookstores  investment is a lemon. Property business already hitting ceiling as land now very ex.

ah_huat      ( Date: 02-Oct-2012 17:36) Posted: Wow! I think ur right. Some serious accumulation going on today.... I wonder why?  Again high volume for this counter.  Looking at full yr and 1Q results. Only so so what.  So why? Looks like I gotta disect this one and see.... stay tune....     temp123      ( Date: 29-Sep-2012 11:34) Posted: Means someone accumulating

 

Wow! I think ur right.

Some serious accumulation going on today.... I wonder why?  Again high volume for this counter.  Looking at full yr and 1Q results. Only so so what.  So why?

Looks like I gotta disect this one and see.... stay tune....

 

 

temp123      ( Date: 29-Sep-2012 11:34) Posted: Means someone accumulating. ah_huat      ( Date: 27-Sep-2012 18:07) Posted: Woah.  Heavy selling today.  Seems to be somethings going on.  Not sure what it is.  I think for the time being  I better stay away until the clouds clear.  Volume again pretty heavy.

 

Means someone accumulating.

ah_huat      ( Date: 27-Sep-2012 18:07) Posted: Woah.  Heavy selling today.  Seems to be somethings going on.  Not sure what it is.  I think for the time being  I better stay away until the clouds clear.  Volume again pretty heavy.

 

no risk no gain...

 

Woah.  Heavy selling today.  Seems to be somethings going on.  Not sure what it is. 

I think for the time being  I better stay away until the clouds clear.  Volume again pretty heavy.   

 

 

U can go to page 132 of their Annual report to check out the retail properties they own.

Er, so what's this at the bottom of the page....

" The total market value of the abovementioned properties as at 30 April 2012 is approximately SGD 34,200,000."

That's simple, I can sum it in 2 words ..... BS!  lol.  Seroiusly, any Tom, Dick and Moron (like me) can tell u that lah.  Can't believe their auditors missed out on that.   

So who did the valuation?  Lim Ah Huat Valuers pte ltd hah?  Next year, please make sure they stated it down hor.

 

Here, u can go to page 87 on their AR to verify 4 yourself.  These guys damn kan man. This page tilted sideways.  Why? So difficult 4 people to read hah. haha. 

 

 

Ah. I see.  thks to DMG we now ve 26cents!!! Thk U!!!

But don't mind I add something they might ve missed out.  That is their retail/ shophouse and office space that they own in Singapore, Malaysia, HongKong and Canada.  A total of 162,500 sqft of space recorded in their Annual report at  a microscopic book value of $21.3m or $131 psf.

Just the Singapore 27,700 sqft of shopping centre/ retail shophouse space estimated at a very conservative $2000 psf, would be easily worth $55.5m. And the REST??

ah_huat      ( Date: 18-Aug-2011 10:24) Posted: Some are owned.  Like I said below, those owned by them include.  86,400 sqft of retail shopping centre space in Malaysia, 45,300 sqft office premise in Hong Kong, 3,100 sqft office premise in Canada, 27,700 sqft retail shop space in Singapore.

 

  Popular Holdings (TRADING BUY)

Despite the onslaught of online media, Popular Holdings has been weathering the competition well, having carved out a strong niche in assessment books, textbooks and stationery products and chalking up healthy growth in its book retailing business year after year. In its latest full year results ended April 2012, the group reported a sterling set of results with net profit climbing 31 per cent to S$31.1 million. Stripping out the writeback of impairment losses (S$6.5 million) for its property division in FY11, net profit growth would have been even more impressive at +66 per cent. The key growth driver came from the retail and distribution segment, which saw a 52 per cent surge in pretax profit to S$29 million and an increase in nine outlets during the year, bringing the total number of outlets to 148. Pretax earnings at the publishing division saw a 25 per cent decline to S$7.3 million due to one-off expense to close down an under-performing magazine. Popular’s fledgling property division, meanwhile, remained profitable, and should see stronger contribution in the year ahead with the launch of 8 Raja, its third development project. Popular continues to run a highly cash-generative operation with annual cash flows of S$30-40 million. The value drivers of the stock include: net cash of S$115 million, development property with book value of S$82 million, the book retailing/publishing business which we valued at 8x P/E, or S$235 million. This implies a sum-of-parts valuation of S$432 million, or S$0.51/share. At current price, the stock is trading at a 53 per cent discount to its sum-of-parts, and on a 30 per cent discount to its SOTP should still be worth S$0.36/share. – OSK-DMG

  http://bizdaily.com.sg/newsite/stock-picks-453/

 

look like funds are coming in to buy those undervalue stocks, the bull is charging...

 

Ya, very unusual action here..not simple.  Decided to jump in today, vested small small.

 

WTF going on with the share price??? Was just 22.5 cents. Now it's 25 cents!!! sure or not?? Volume over last few days going thru the roof. Anyone here anything?