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No offence intended, my apology if it does offend u.
Wat credentials do u have (better than Dr YC Chan?) to make comments on his newsletter?
I rather advice newbies to listen to him than u.
iPunter ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 12:49) Posted:
"... Once you are sure it is a bull market, you should have the patience to hold... "
Not even a fortune teller can be sure if it's a bull (or bear) market ...
And that is the problem why many people committ suicide when playing the market...
Simply because they are very sure and confident ..
and thus whack big... and hold and hold confidently... 
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Holding is the natural inclination of newbies...
And even veterans are the best holders...
"...
Once you are sure it is a bull market, you should have the patience to hold... "
Not even a fortune teller can be sure if it's a bull (or bear) market ...
And that is the problem why many people committ suicide when playing the market...
Simply because they are
very sure and confident ..
and thus whack big... and
hold and hold confidently...
Very good article! Thanks for sharing !
September 09 newsletter - Dr YC Chan
曾渊沧@股友通讯录
MICA (P) 133/09/2008
九月份
Dear Friends
You may mark the August stock market being volatile, or boring.
Volatile because there were many days in August the ups and downs
of the market index from one day to another could add up to 2% difference.
The first day the market could go up by 2%, only to see it came down by 2% the next day
and went up by 2% again on the third day.
Punters’ sentiments kept changing amidst joy and anxiety.
They lost money everyday because they misjudged the market trend.
The worst tactics is to chase stocks when market is rising and cut loss when
it is coming down.
The market was boring because notwithstanding its volatility,
the market position remained the same as if nothing had happened.
Patience plays a very important part in stock investment.
Once you are sure it is a bull market, you should have the patience to hold
good quality stocks and ignore the daily price fluctuations.
Sideline yourself and become an observer; sell your stocks only when you think
the market fundamentals have altered.
This is the way to make big money.
Immersing in the daily market fluctuations, you may make several mistakes and
lose confidence and more mistakes followed.
There are many people who lose money in a bull market.
These are short term players who make wrong moves more often than the right moves.
What are the good quality stocks?
How to select them?
As the world keeps on changing; there is no such thing as a permanent good quality
The moment the stock market becomes bubbles, the value of good quality stocks disappears.
To be value conscious is the best way to select good quality stocks.
When the prices of some shares have gone up many folds over a short span of one
their value would naturally be discounted.
At present mid term bull market, under valued shares have become fewer and fewer.
The mid term bull market still has growth potential.
Unless there are adverse factors affecting the particular industry and corporate stocks
you are holding, you should not sell your holdings hastily.
Stock markets always behave ahead of economic data.
Therefore people who make big money are those who dare to venture into the markets facing collapse, as most of the shares would then be undervalued, some shares may price only 10% of their real worth.
Beside China, the global economy is not recovering, although signs of its recovery are there, probably before the end of this year.
Before economy recovery is officially acclaimed, share prices are mostly in “buy” category.
When recovery has been officially acclaimed, share prices may have skewed to the high side.
To enter the market for short term punting by then would be analogy to playing the last round of music chair: that if you do not know how to unload, you would not have a chair to sit on it.
Newbies take note that there is no strict n fast rule on cut-loss. Three people will do three things:
1. When price drops to a pre-defined target, sell at a small loss. If the downtrend continues, buy back and repeat the same process.
2. When the price drops to a pre-defined target, buy additional units reducing the overal cost of purchases. Continue until the target investment dollars for the counter is achieved.
3. Hold and take no further action, and wait for the price to recover. This can take a short while or indefinitely.
Choose any of the three actions and try to understand your own strategy. One important is not to trade beyond your financial resources. If you trade beyond your financial resources, you are BOUND to LOSE in the game.
Subject: .... why you share
From: risktaker
Date: 31-Aug-2009 11:37
Reply Message * | Delete | Archive this! | Add risktaker to blacklist
sometimes there are certain things you shouldnt share with the public
Subject:Re: .... why you share
From: richtan
Date: 31-Aug-2009 11:43
Delete | Archive this!
I think we should not be selfish, should level the playing field by exposing such sneaky
despicable act by educate the newbies, I have my heart n concern for the newbies,
making money is not everything for me, right moral values matters to me more than making money.
Read this from
http://rmao.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=553:
by PPG on August 30th, 2009, 4:52 pm
Let me cite an exmaple to help out in understanding.
For example, I am a fund manager and I need to collect XX lots of a counter today at a certain price.
So I will place a buy q proably matching or slightly less than the sell q size (to create illusion that bears are stronger).
Let's say 300 lots.
I will then start my 1 lot sell down program. Effectively, I'm selling into my own buy q.
The purpose of this sell down program will create the illusion that some one is selling down. Weak and kan keong holders will starts to sell down to my buy q.
Let's say my program sell down will selldown 1 lot every min. So in 1 hour I will sell back myself 60 lots and effectively collect 240 lots, assuming my buy q gets snapped up fully or exhausted.
Now you will observe most selldown program upon nearing the buy q exhausted soon, the buy q will most of the time be miraculously replenished with small amounts slowly.
Sometimes the collector will allow it to fully retrace from previous collection point and collect at 1 bid down also.
Hi Richtan,
Thanks for your sharing.
Appreciate that.
richtan ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 01:01) Posted:
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Hi wongmx6,
There is no hard n fast rules about cut-losses, the strategy varies depending on the risk/reward ratio and a person's risk-aversion level.
The strategy I used does not mean it is applicable to everyone as every individual has their own different threshold of pain.
Eg, 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1:
In a candle reversal pattern, if the candle close below the low of the candle b4 the peaking candle and the nearest support line is far down, I will exit instead of exiting when it breaks and close below the support, to minimise my risk.
Scenario 2:
In a candle reversal pattern, if the candle close below the low of the candle b4 the peaking candle and the nearest support line is quite nearby, I will exit only when it breaks and close below the support, as my risk is not tat great.
As I said, this is my strategy, so do not follow me blindly, as wat works for me may not work for u as I said, everyone has different threshold of pain., so dyodd n BOSAYOR.
wongmx6 ( Date: 15-Aug-2009 06:56) Posted:
Hi Richtan, I'm aware that in your post you have talked about cut losses. Can you please kindly share, What kind of methods that you are using to cut losses....? Thanks
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This is just one of my few cut-loss strategies, there are others, eg break below a chart pattern for at least 2 days continous, as one day break could be a fake.
richtan ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 01:01) Posted:
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Hi wongmx6,
There is no hard n fast rules about cut-losses, the strategy varies depending on the risk/reward ratio and a person's risk-aversion level.
The strategy I used does not mean it is applicable to everyone as every individual has their own different threshold of pain.
Eg, 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1:
In a candle reversal pattern, if the candle close below the low of the candle b4 the peaking candle and the nearest support line is far down, I will exit instead of exiting when it breaks and close below the support, to minimise my risk.
Scenario 2:
In a candle reversal pattern, if the candle close below the low of the candle b4 the peaking candle and the nearest support line is quite nearby, I will exit only when it breaks and close below the support, as my risk is not tat great.
As I said, this is my strategy, so do not follow me blindly, as wat works for me may not work for u as I said, everyone has different threshold of pain., so dyodd n BOSAYOR.
wongmx6 ( Date: 15-Aug-2009 06:56) Posted:
Hi Richtan, I'm aware that in your post you have talked about cut losses. Can you please kindly share, What kind of methods that you are using to cut losses....? Thanks
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Hi wongmx6,
There is no hard n fast rules about cut-losses, the strategy varies depending on the risk/reward ratio and a person's risk-aversion level.
The strategy I used does not mean it is applicable to everyone as every individual has their own different threshold of pain.
Eg, 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1:
In a candle reversal pattern, if the candle close below the low of the candle b4 the peaking candle and the nearest support line is far down, I will exit instead of exiting when it breaks and close below the support, to minimise my risk.
Scenario 2:
In a candle reversal pattern, if the candle close below the low of the candle b4 the peaking candle and the nearest support line is quite nearby, I will exit only when it breaks and close below the support, as my risk is not tat great.
As I said, this is my strategy, so do not follow me blindly, as wat works for me may not work for u as I said, everyone has different threshold of pain., so dyodd n BOSAYOR.
wongmx6 ( Date: 15-Aug-2009 06:56) Posted:
Hi Richtan, I'm aware that in your post you have talked about cut losses. Can you please kindly share, What kind of methods that you are using to cut losses....? Thanks
richtan ( Date: 15-Aug-2009 01:20) Posted:
richtan ( Date: 04-Jul-2009 22:21) Posted:
Hi XXXXX,
I hope u dun feel offended with my sharing, this is just my opinion and advice as everyone has their own trading style, I sincerely hope my sharing will help u n benefit u.
It is my firm belief tat there is no easy way out in life, including trading, we need to learn the tools of the trade (be it any trades) be it FA or TA or both as I had posted in this forum sharing my folly when I 1st step into trading, taking the easy way out n wise up after making hugh losses, do a search on my name n read it.
Personally, I m both FA n TA with more inclination towards TA.
FA wise, I read broking houses writeups, CNA interviews of analysts, forum, bloomberg... blah...blah...blah... just to get a feel of the mkt as I m sure after listening/reading so many analysts views, we tends to get confused at times as there are conflicting opinions n views, so at the end of the day, I still stick to TA as my tools for my trading decisions, though it is not infallible.
We need something to guide us when we tread this minefield of trading, so TA is my compass n guiding light (though it is not infallible, thus the need to set cut-loss point) just as satellite navigation is the guiding light to planes n ships.
Depending on your inclinations and whether u seriously want to learn TA, I had made many postings sharing my advice, recommended a few good TA books ( u can also search bookstores for some good TA books) n "Free TA Tutorial" websites n expert TA analyst website, click on my name n search n read thru them all n read as many TA books and money management books, it will definitely stand u in good stead.
Making losses is part n parcel of trading, thus why I always remember by heart n abide by the 3 mantras I learnt from TA books:
(1) Remember, the trend is your friend, never, never go against the trend, we need to know the short-term, mid-term n long term trend n trade accordingly
(2) Plan your trade n trade your plan, which means we need to analyse the chart for buying opportunities (TA skills needed, though not infallible) n set out stop-loss point b4 enter a trade
(3) Cut losses short n let profit runs with trailing stops, we need to let profit runs as much as it can to cover all the losses made n yet make net gains. When we hit the cut-loss, never be emotional, be mechanical, immediately exit n never regret even if later it goes up bcos if dun cut, wat if it continues to go down, preserving ammunition to fight another day is the key. We can always re-enter if there is another buy sign candles, even if buying at a higher price.
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Hi Richtan,
I'm aware that in your post you have talked about cut losses.
Can you please kindly share, What kind of methods that you are using to cut losses....?
Thanks
richtan ( Date: 15-Aug-2009 01:20) Posted:
richtan ( Date: 04-Jul-2009 22:21) Posted:
Hi XXXXX,
I hope u dun feel offended with my sharing, this is just my opinion and advice as everyone has their own trading style, I sincerely hope my sharing will help u n benefit u.
It is my firm belief tat there is no easy way out in life, including trading, we need to learn the tools of the trade (be it any trades) be it FA or TA or both as I had posted in this forum sharing my folly when I 1st step into trading, taking the easy way out n wise up after making hugh losses, do a search on my name n read it.
Personally, I m both FA n TA with more inclination towards TA.
FA wise, I read broking houses writeups, CNA interviews of analysts, forum, bloomberg... blah...blah...blah... just to get a feel of the mkt as I m sure after listening/reading so many analysts views, we tends to get confused at times as there are conflicting opinions n views, so at the end of the day, I still stick to TA as my tools for my trading decisions, though it is not infallible.
We need something to guide us when we tread this minefield of trading, so TA is my compass n guiding light (though it is not infallible, thus the need to set cut-loss point) just as satellite navigation is the guiding light to planes n ships.
Depending on your inclinations and whether u seriously want to learn TA, I had made many postings sharing my advice, recommended a few good TA books ( u can also search bookstores for some good TA books) n "Free TA Tutorial" websites n expert TA analyst website, click on my name n search n read thru them all n read as many TA books and money management books, it will definitely stand u in good stead.
Making losses is part n parcel of trading, thus why I always remember by heart n abide by the 3 mantras I learnt from TA books:
(1) Remember, the trend is your friend, never, never go against the trend, we need to know the short-term, mid-term n long term trend n trade accordingly
(2) Plan your trade n trade your plan, which means we need to analyse the chart for buying opportunities (TA skills needed, though not infallible) n set out stop-loss point b4 enter a trade
(3) Cut losses short n let profit runs with trailing stops, we need to let profit runs as much as it can to cover all the losses made n yet make net gains. When we hit the cut-loss, never be emotional, be mechanical, immediately exit n never regret even if later it goes up bcos if dun cut, wat if it continues to go down, preserving ammunition to fight another day is the key. We can always re-enter if there is another buy sign candles, even if buying at a higher price.
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Just my sharing with all forumers, prticularly to newbies.
Read today's Sunday Times,"Invest, pg 23", I quote in red:
"Watch Out for Scammers"
Point no. 3:
3. Pump and Dump scams.
These are typical conducted via an unsolicited phone call or e-mail. The scammer, who holds a stock, attempts to boost its price via false and misleading recommendations (the "pump") which are e-mailed to many people. The stock is often promoted as a "hot tip". Once there is a surge of interest from victims, the scammers sell the stock (the dump").
The victims lose their investments as the stock price falls. Such scams usual target thinly traded or small-cap stocks as they are easy to manipulate and it does not take many new buyers to push up the prices. To avoid being taken in, it is best not to rely on information you receive via an unsolicited source.
My comments:
(1) This is true not only via unsolicited phone call and e-mail but also in public forums, so be wary of wat u read and dyodd.
(2) It is also true tat scammers usually target thinly traded or small-cap stocks, but it is still okay to trade small-cap stocks if u dyodd using FA and TA. Knowing tat the stock has good fundamentals is not good enuf as u may get caught buying at a high price by the "pump" which is primed for corrections (the dump"), thus the importance of TA to know whether it had been pumped up (avoid buying and being caught) and instead wait for buying opportunities (during the correction) by studying the candlesticks and other indicators for reversal patterns.
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Hi xxxxxxxx,
Just look at any stock charts and u will notice tat stocks dun go up in one straight line, bound to have profit-taking, corrections and consolidation.
To succeed in trading, I always said:
"Learn to master TA n u are the master of your own trades."
"Learn how to fish n u can fend for yourself forever, relying on tothers n forever u r dependent on others n at their mercy"
"There is no easy way n short-cut to success in life, including trading, all are own hardwork"
I had created a thread dedicated to newbies: "Learning TA" under "General", "Trading Techniques", where u can learn TA for free, of course u can also buy TA books, I had recommended a few, click on my nick to search for it n also read my past advices n my 3 golden mantras.
Take your time to read, dun rush, keep track where u started n stopped, not forgetting newer posts, remember "Rome was not built in one day"
richtan ( Date: 04-Jul-2009 22:21) Posted:
Hi XXXXX,
I hope u dun feel offended with my sharing, this is just my opinion and advice as everyone has their own trading style, I sincerely hope my sharing will help u n benefit u.
It is my firm belief tat there is no easy way out in life, including trading, we need to learn the tools of the trade (be it any trades) be it FA or TA or both as I had posted in this forum sharing my folly when I 1st step into trading, taking the easy way out n wise up after making hugh losses, do a search on my name n read it.
Personally, I m both FA n TA with more inclination towards TA.
FA wise, I read broking houses writeups, CNA interviews of analysts, forum, bloomberg... blah...blah...blah... just to get a feel of the mkt as I m sure after listening/reading so many analysts views, we tends to get confused at times as there are conflicting opinions n views, so at the end of the day, I still stick to TA as my tools for my trading decisions, though it is not infallible.
We need something to guide us when we tread this minefield of trading, so TA is my compass n guiding light (though it is not infallible, thus the need to set cut-loss point) just as satellite navigation is the guiding light to planes n ships.
Depending on your inclinations and whether u seriously want to learn TA, I had made many postings sharing my advice, recommended a few good TA books ( u can also search bookstores for some good TA books) n "Free TA Tutorial" websites n expert TA analyst website, click on my name n search n read thru them all n read as many TA books and money management books, it will definitely stand u in good stead.
Making losses is part n parcel of trading, thus why I always remember by heart n abide by the 3 mantras I learnt from TA books:
(1) Remember, the trend is your friend, never, never go against the trend, we need to know the short-term, mid-term n long term trend n trade accordingly
(2) Plan your trade n trade your plan, which means we need to analyse the chart for buying opportunities (TA skills needed, though not infallible) n set out stop-loss point b4 enter a trade
(3) Cut losses short n let profit runs with trailing stops, we need to let profit runs as much as it can to cover all the losses made n yet make net gains. When we hit the cut-loss, never be emotional, be mechanical, immediately exit n never regret even if later it goes up bcos if dun cut, wat if it continues to go down, preserving ammunition to fight another day is the key. We can always re-enter if there is another buy sign candles, even if buying at a higher price.
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