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Hi puntit,

What's a flagpole formation?

 

Hi Yongjiu,

No problems. I hope you have sold it already... because it still looks like its downtrending some more.

 

hi singaporegal, thx for your advices, I've stuck with this counter since April. Should have cut-lost during 0.93cts at least won't hurt so much.

 

Looks to be trending south now. Hope you got out in time.

 

When a stock does not perform as expected, esp when a support is broken promtly, simply dump it promptly. In this case it's a failure of an anticipated flagpole. Be prompt in exiting.

In contrast, Ho Bee is a classic example of a flagpole formation playing out to the hilt. Should have played Ho Bee instead :)

 

yeah something fishy happening here...
this does not match the dealy effect with the low oil prices theory...

 

There are some signs that oil prices have bottomed. This is not good for Hi-P. The support has been broken. Another bad sign.

 

Guess plastic player got to be endure for a yrs of down-cycle.
no too sure when can it be back to $1.00 support level.

 

Hi-P falling... Singaporegal may have been right after all?  :)

 

Shit Hi-P still lot of underpressure!!!

SINGAPORE (XFN-ASIA) - CIMB-GK said plastic stocks continue to face pricing pressure despite falling oil prices, due to excess capacity in the industry.

     "We gather that recent drop in crude oil prices will not have an immediate impact on the earnings of plastic component manufacturers," CIMB-GK analyst Jonathan Ng said.

     "Also as some major customers are quoted on a cost-plus basis, material price movements would not have a significant impact on their earnings," he added.

     Crude oil prices stayed below 60 usd a barrel in Asian trade, despite rising on news of a sharper-than-expected drop in US heating fuel stocks ahead of an anticipated pick-up in demand during the Northern hemisphere winter.

     "We do not expect any positive newsflow for most plastic stocks for at least the next three to six months, and believe It is too early to turn optimistic on these stocks based on the recent weakness in oil prices," Ng said.

     CIMB-GK is keeping its "neutral" call on Meiban Group while reviewing its "outperform" rating on First Engineering and Huan Hsin Holdings in view of downside risks in earnings from depressed margins.

     At 4.03 pm, First Engineering was down 0.005 sgd at 0.81, Huan Hsin down 0.01 sgd at 0.55 while Meiban was unchanged at 0.28 sgd.

 

yeah today it hit the high price at 0.925

=)

 

DBSV has slashed its target for the stock to $0.90 following a surge in the share price last week and as outlook remains uncertain.



Shares of the electronics contract manufacturer surged 25% last week, running ahead of fundamentals, as the market was cheered by the decline in oil prices, the brokerage said.



"Falling oil price is good news, but this alone is not enough to validate a turning point for Hi-P," DBSV analyst Tan Ai Teng said in a note. "We think that it is more crucial for orders and capacity utilization rate to improve substantially in the coming months," she said. "Although we believe that the worst could be over, we still need evidence of an actual turnaround."



"We feel that at this juncture, risk is on the downside, especially if the group continues to fail to meet expectations," Tan said.

 

ABN-AMRO has a target price of $1.12 because it believes the stock's price has now fallen to attractive levels.



"The share price has corrected from a high of 1.80 sgd in Feb due to expansion woes and customers' product delays. We believe management is working hard to consolidate its weaker operations while keeping its focus on vertical integration," ABN-AMRO said.



The brokerage said that although Hi-P's earnings would likely decline this year, it was optimistic that growth would resume next year, driven by orders from established customers such as Motorola and Gillette and new ones such as Nokia, Sony, Apple, Samsung and Research in Motion.



ABN-AMRO said it expects Hi-P's net profit to fall to $75.6m this year, before rising to $90.9m next year and to $107.6m in 2008.

 

UOBKH has a target price of $0.92.



But Morgan Stanley analyst Sharon Shih said it might be too early to buy Hi-P. She said she wanted to see actual improvements in its earnings before recommending that clients buy the stock.



"We see some improvement in the second half but the third quarter won't be too good," Shih said.



Contributions from the new contracts will show up only late in the fourth quarter or early next year, she said.



Shih also wants to see how Hi-P's new work for Motorola, which means using a process called "vacuum metalization" will pan out. This is the first time Hi-P has used this process.



And she is waiting to see if Hi-P's campaign to secure a maiden contract with Nokia will succeed.

 

It is higher on hopes that its earnings will recover next year because of new contracts and lower oil prices, dealers said.



UOBKH said in a note to clients that lower oil prices could help reduce the cost of plastic resins for plastic molding companies such as Hi-P.



"The worst could be over for plastic molding companies with regards to margin contraction from higher plastic resin prices. A further drop in crude oil prices could translate to a lower cost of raw materials in subsequent quarters. This could provide a catalyst for earnings recovery in 2007," the brokerage said.



Last month, Hi-P reported that its second-quarter net profit slumped 34.5% yoy because of delays in orders by one of its main customers and continuing margin pressures.



The company said these orders had already been delivered and, according to UOBKH, new orders from Research in Motion, the maker of the Blackberry devices, and Motorola are coming through.

 

Any reason why this counter is in the top volume counter and price surge today.....

 

The price slid to one-year low of $0.66 last week on concerns that earnings going forward will continue to disappoint amid rising raw material costs and mounting start-up losses at its new manufacturing facilities.



"While we see limited downside from current level, we need more evidence for a solid turnaround before turning positive on Hi-P," Morgan Stanley said in a note to clients. It rates Hi-P an "equal-weight" with target price of $0.88.

 

The recent plunge in price could be due to the report from CSFB.



The recent jumps in prices of benzene and ABS is not so significant, as Motorola handles resin purchases directly, but it is affected by start-up losses at its new facilities. CSFB believes the worst is over, but may need to wait until 4Q06 before the turnaround is more evident. CSFB has a price target of $1.10.

 

May still be too early to buy. 2Q06 results were disappointing. But there may be further risk to earnings. Prospects of a turnaround appear low. Management is now revising its earlier yoy flat profit guidance to be lower than 2005 levels.



Key concerns are excess industry capacity, rise in resin prices and investments for new manufacturing capabilities such casing, PCBA, lens, are likely to remain loss-making.

 

Avoid because of the reasons given.