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I meant below 1400 before X'mas seems exaggerated
learningtheropes ( Date: 18-Nov-2008 21:42) Posted:
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If "ever" reach 800, will start buying upshares of solid companies ( if any still around) for grandkids....
cathylmg ( Date: 17-Nov-2008 22:52) Posted:
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it's not overexaggerated..the 1st sentence already bingo..today STI really closed below 1700
Livermore ( Date: 18-Nov-2008 07:42) Posted:
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opinion negtvly construed as over-exaggerated.
AK_Francis ( Date: 18-Nov-2008 09:14) Posted:
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yup, bleeding slowly week after week.
Hahaha....it is like 'killing you slowly with a smile' :) The Market is very unforgiving especially so in such an environment. Pray that the coming budget meets the Market's expectation...else....! Cheers!
I feel, trading volume down progressively, but not much effect to STI and it is hoovering in the small range around 1730.
Ha ha, congrate, quite close, today paper's said.
Livermore ( Date: 18-Nov-2008 07:42) Posted:
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A little overaggerated in my personal opinion. But let's see
lookcc ( Date: 18-Nov-2008 05:26) Posted:
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sti closes <1700 2day??? and below 1400 b4 xmas [hopefully dun go below 1200 support b4 year end]???
Which means that 800 is possible?
ShareJunky ( Date: 16-Nov-2008 13:04) Posted:
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"Starting a business" is easier said than done. The writer of that article probably hadn't started a business yet.
The current climate is really bad... if you start now, you will have major difficulties in 2 critical areas:
1. Funding
2. Sourcing for customers
From what I have been reading more or less confirms what I think is happening now. Capital expenditure for the future in raw materials, food and energy is being reduced because of this credit crisis. Three years from now when growth starts to recover you don't have the supply that we should be investing today. Three years from now, you cannot wake up the next morning and say you want renewable energy.
Today there is a article "No Job? Start a business". Let me share with you that my friend's business has suffered from a profit margin of 30 - 40% to merely 20%. He is already thinking of relocating part of his business to another country. If I may quote soneome who wrote in the article "Singapore is becoming a costly place so it may not be easy to make money through self employment unless you have some knowledeg or skills advantage".
One thing people venturing into business must realise that when the global economy recovers, cost is going to increase because oil price is going to shoot back up. It is going to be period of high growth but high inflation.
Ok, thks, sounds very much like a tsunami.(the destructive ocean type).... which comes in waves....
No wonder some financial experts kept talking abt this crisis as a "financial tsunami...."
Livermore ( Date: 16-Nov-2008 10:52) Posted:
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I am not great at TA myself. There should be 5 waves in STI's slide down from 3900. There should be a rebound soon which should mean wave 4. The 5th and last wave is another down slide. If you count from STI rise from 1210 to 3900, there were 5 waves.
ShareJunky ( Date: 16-Nov-2008 10:47) Posted:
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Hi Livermore, i'm kosong abt TA. What's "wave 3" and its implication?
Much obliged for some enlightment. Thks
Livermore ( Date: 16-Nov-2008 10:03) Posted:
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STI still in wave 3
Rite elfin, surely it is no use 'crying over spilled milk' 'cos what have happened couldn't be undone! It is good to have some 'scenarios' of how STI performance could happen. Of course, with some backings or explainations.
I think the more the uncertainties, the lesser the probalility of hitting a target. I'm sure in the study of probability, there're many 'what-if-scenarios' and follow by the 'routes' to take and your chances of succeed.
In this world nothing is forever! To understand fundamentals, you must have a working understanding of variables (viz, Earnings, PE, EPS etcc.....) in relation with the environments prevailing at the time. The trading px of a Company may not reflect the 'actual' value of the Company itself. Gar, in my opinion, is just reflecting the Market's sentiments at that time! Cheers!
shortists haven't only been caught today...they've been caught for the last two weeks as well. anyway, i'm not interested in arguing about bottoming/etc. my only interest is rationality and objectivity. "what ifs" matter less than "what is", in the markets. to that end: 1200 is possible, yes, but 800, remote. "Anything can happen"---of course. But what's the probability of it?
TA is about probability.
or for those who understand fundamentals: to make the point clearer: when STI was 3900, cosco was trading at 8.20. 20x above its NAV of 46c at that time. Kepcorp was trading at $14, 4x above its then-NAV of 3.43. Gar was trading at 1.10, NAV was US43c.
You really think STI 4,000 would have lasted forever?
Then now: Current prices/relative to NAV? Cosco NAV = 51c, px abt 90c. Kepcorp NAV 2.91, px, 4.73. GAr = 19c.
It's greed and fear that drives the herd, and that's exactly what traders capitalise on.
these are the points i'm making. and well, will just let time bear the burden of proof. meanwhile, this is just a forum. rather than getting emotionally involved, far better to weed out the white noise and move accordingly.
cheers!
Well then I suppose 70% of the 'professional analysts' are ridiculous.
The point is, it's important to see markets as objectively as possible rather than follow herd mentality.
I dare say a lot of intraday shortists got caught today. Why? Coz they 'follow the trend' blindly.
Trends EVOLVE. Markets MOVE.
So far the discussion seems to be talking so much abt a bottom at 800.
Why is no one talking abt 600, or 400 for STI?
What is that innate reasoning/belief that stops most from mentioning 400?
Isn't this something to think about?
Name me one stock exchange/index in the world where the index value has touched zero. Oops, tough question.
lookcc ( Date: 13-Nov-2008 19:16) Posted:
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