SingPost    Last:0.57   -

Singpost

Thanks for the advices. Yup, I'll probably keep it till the trend reverses.

Gurus always say ppl tends to sell winners and buy losers. Try not to fall into that trap :]

 

possible only if their earning increases significantly and they increase the dividend significantly as well...

if they don't increase the dividend payout, I think it's very hard to reach that price..   people would prefer to shift the money to dividend-paying large blue-chips. 

john_ric      ( Date: 14-May-2013 16:48) Posted: . may reach 2.00

 

. may reach 2.00

 

For me, I'd partially unload..   but I'll wait until the rally is running out of steam.

It seems that the momentum is still there.

Will enjoy the upswing before the dramatic correction comes. 

 

for me i would realise the capital gains now.. @ $1.4 that's about 40% capital gains..

and 6% divy that's close to 50% gains..

it will probably reach $1.5 but  to get there may be a rough  or smooth  ride..

ask urself what are u after? steady divy (continue to vest)  or capital  gains+divy (realise ur gains  and find other better stocks to vest in)? 

 

For me, it's whether I realise capital gain or continue holding for dividends. Bought at $0.98 any advice?

ozone2002      ( Date: 14-May-2013 14:34) Posted: back then at low price was super divy & capital gain stock.. now divy yield less cos price appreciated .. not much capital gains left cos already ran up not attractive to vest unless u want lower divy yield & smaller capital gains gd luck dyodd ozone2002      ( Date: 28-Jan-2013 15:17) Posted: Super divy and capital gains stock.. best of both worlds 3QFY13 results in line Singapore Post (SingPost) reported a 14.5% YoY rise in revenue to S$171.0m but saw a 5.1% fall in net profit to S$39.5m in 3QFY13. Excluding one-off items, underlying net profit rose 2.5% to S$39.8m in the quarter. Results were in line with our expectations, such that 9M13 net profit accounted for 76.7% of our full year estimate. Strong revenue performance In the mail division, domestic mail volume continued to decline, registering the fifth quarter of lower mail volumes. However, strong growth in international e-commerce packets and contributions from Novation Solutions helped to boost mail revenue by 20.5% YoY. Excluding Novation Solutions, growth was still good at 15.1%. Logistics and retail also saw growth of 10.9% and 19.8%, respectively. Notwithstanding the fact that 3QFY13 was the festive season which generally brings in greater revenue, it is encouraging to see the 11.2% QoQ growth (vs +6.0% in 3QFY12, +7.9% in 3QFY11 and 7.2% in 3QFY10). Focus on growth and cost pressures We expect the focus going forward will still remain on cost management to contain inflationary pressures and rising labour related expenses, while pursuing growth initiatives. The group has been increasingly active in the M& A space, having spent a total of S$97m in its acquisition of General Storage Pte Ltd (which runs the Lock+Store self-storage business) and a 62.5% stake in a sea freight consolidator and freightforwarder in the last two months. Stock has done well downgrading to HOLD SingPost has done well after we upgraded it to BUY in early Jan last year. As a stock, SingPost has rewarded shareholders with handsome returns while providing stability and ease of mind. As it is now trading close to our fair value estimate of S$1.23, we downgrade it to forward to SingPost’s transformation as it seeks more growth opportunities, but till then, we see limited upside potential unless earnings growth from its acquisitions proves to be better than expected.HOLD. We look STOCK HAS DONE WELL DOWNGRADE TO HOLD • Results in line • Stock has rewarded shareholders well • Downgrading to HOLD on valuations 28 Jan 2013 Company Update SINGAPORE POST | BUY Asia Pacific Equity Research Singapore | Logistics HOLD (downgrade) Fair value S$1.23 add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06 versus: Current price S$1.21 12m total return forecast 7% Analysts Low Pei Han, CFA (Lead) E +65 6531 9813 lowph@ocbc-research.com Chia Jiunyang, CFA E +65 6531 9809 chiajy@ocbc-research.com Key information Market cap. (m) S$2,298 / USD1,860 Avg daily turnover (m) S$3 / USD3 Avg daily vol. (m) 3.1 52-wk range (S$) 0.955 - 1.21 Free float (%) 71.6 Shares o/s. (m) 1,899.0 Exchange SGX BBRG ticker SPOST SP Reuters ticker SPOS.SI ISIN code S08 GICS Sector Industrials GICS Industry Air Freight & Logistics Top shareholder SingTel - 26.0% Relative total return 1m 3m 12m Company (%) 6 5 33 STI-adjusted (%) 2 -2 16 Price performance chart 0.87 0.97 1.07 1.16 1.26 1.36 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 2600 2900 3200 3500 3800 4100 Fair Value SPOST SP FSSTI Shar e Pr ice (S$) Index Level ` Sources: Bloomberg, OIR estimates Industry-relative metrics 0th 25th 50th 75th 100th PB PE ROE Beta Mkt Cap Company Indust r y Aver age Per cent i l e Note: Industry universe defined as companies under identical GICS classification listed on the same exchange. Sources: Bloomberg, OIR estimates Key financial highlights Year ended 31 Mar (S$m) FY11 FY12 FY13F FY14F Revenue 565.8 578.5 615.0 618.0 Operating expenses -386.1 -416.4 -450.4 -452.4 EBITDA 221.3 204.5 208.9 212.0 Net profit att to shareholders 161.0 142.0 144.5 153.2 EPS (S cents) 8.3 7.5 7.6 8.1 Cons. EPS (S cts) na na 46.8 62.3 EBITDA margin (%) 39.1 35.3 34.0 34.3 Net profit margin (%) 28.4 24.5 23.5 24.8 ROE (%) 49.4 45.4 42.7 41.0 Price/NTA (x) 9.8 10.3 9.3 8.2

 

back then at low price was super divy & capital gain stock..

now divy yield less cos price appreciated .. not much capital gains left cos already ran up

not attractive to vest unless u want lower divy yield & smaller capital gains

gd luck dyodd

ozone2002      ( Date: 28-Jan-2013 15:17) Posted: Super divy and capital gains stock.. best of both worlds 3QFY13 results in line Singapore Post (SingPost) reported a 14.5% YoY rise in revenue to S$171.0m but saw a 5.1% fall in net profit to S$39.5m in 3QFY13. Excluding one-off items, underlying net profit rose 2.5% to S$39.8m in the quarter. Results were in line with our expectations, such that 9M13 net profit accounted for 76.7% of our full year estimate. Strong revenue performance In the mail division, domestic mail volume continued to decline, registering the fifth quarter of lower mail volumes. However, strong growth in international e-commerce packets and contributions from Novation Solutions helped to boost mail revenue by 20.5% YoY. Excluding Novation Solutions, growth was still good at 15.1%. Logistics and retail also saw growth of 10.9% and 19.8%, respectively. Notwithstanding the fact that 3QFY13 was the festive season which generally brings in greater revenue, it is encouraging to see the 11.2% QoQ growth (vs +6.0% in 3QFY12, +7.9% in 3QFY11 and 7.2% in 3QFY10). Focus on growth and cost pressures We expect the focus going forward will still remain on cost management to contain inflationary pressures and rising labour related expenses, while pursuing growth initiatives. The group has been increasingly active in the M& A space, having spent a total of S$97m in its acquisition of General Storage Pte Ltd (which runs the Lock+Store self-storage business) and a 62.5% stake in a sea freight consolidator and freightforwarder in the last two months. Stock has done well downgrading to HOLD SingPost has done well after we upgraded it to BUY in early Jan last year. As a stock, SingPost has rewarded shareholders with handsome returns while providing stability and ease of mind. As it is now trading close to our fair value estimate of S$1.23, we downgrade it to forward to SingPost’s transformation as it seeks more growth opportunities, but till then, we see limited upside potential unless earnings growth from its acquisitions proves to be better than expected.HOLD. We look STOCK HAS DONE WELL DOWNGRADE TO HOLD • Results in line • Stock has rewarded shareholders well • Downgrading to HOLD on valuations 28 Jan 2013 Company Update SINGAPORE POST | BUY Asia Pacific Equity Research Singapore | Logistics HOLD (downgrade) Fair value S$1.23 add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06 versus: Current price S$1.21 12m total return forecast 7% Analysts Low Pei Han, CFA (Lead) E +65 6531 9813 lowph@ocbc-research.com Chia Jiunyang, CFA E +65 6531 9809 chiajy@ocbc-research.com Key information Market cap. (m) S$2,298 / USD1,860 Avg daily turnover (m) S$3 / USD3 Avg daily vol. (m) 3.1 52-wk range (S$) 0.955 - 1.21 Free float (%) 71.6 Shares o/s. (m) 1,899.0 Exchange SGX BBRG ticker SPOST SP Reuters ticker SPOS.SI ISIN code S08 GICS Sector Industrials GICS Industry Air Freight & Logistics Top shareholder SingTel - 26.0% Relative total return 1m 3m 12m Company (%) 6 5 33 STI-adjusted (%) 2 -2 16 Price performance chart 0.87 0.97 1.07 1.16 1.26 1.36 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 2600 2900 3200 3500 3800 4100 Fair Value SPOST SP FSSTI Shar e Pr ice (S$) Index Level ` Sources: Bloomberg, OIR estimates Industry-relative metrics 0th 25th 50th 75th 100th PB PE ROE Beta Mkt Cap Company Indust r y Aver age Per cent i l e Note: Industry universe defined as companies under identical GICS classification listed on the same exchange. Sources: Bloomberg, OIR estimates Key financial highlights Year ended 31 Mar (S$m) FY11 FY12 FY13F FY14F Revenue 565.8 578.5 615.0 618.0 Operating expenses -386.1 -416.4 -450.4 -452.4 EBITDA 221.3 204.5 208.9 212.0 Net profit att to shareholders 161.0 142.0 144.5 153.2 EPS (S cents) 8.3 7.5 7.6 8.1 Cons. EPS (S cts) na na 46.8 62.3 EBITDA margin (%) 39.1 35.3 34.0 34.3 Net profit margin (%) 28.4 24.5 23.5 24.8 ROE (%) 49.4 45.4 42.7 41.0 Price/NTA (x) 9.8 10.3 9.3 8.2

 

I think it's because their result is proven to be resilient and they are keen to improve productivity by investing in new machinery(which would save time & manpower). Their investments have started to make some contributions.

As long as they can manage the cost properly and prove their expansion to logistic business can increase shareholder's value, I think this stock should be doing well in the long run. I hope they can really control their costs.

Mail volume is decreasing but I think their result is being sustained by packet delivery. (I guess it's thanks to Groupon and the likes..) 

Let's see how much more they can grow. It's a slow growth.. but I like slow & steady.  

 

Other companies, especially in the public transport sector are having problem controlling their cost vs income(despite of increasing fare & population), hence making losses. But singpost is always making profit, that's why I love this company and I have been a loyal shareholder for quite some time now.  

Hopefully it can always bring good business in the future. 

 

 

wa this counter chionging non-stop for the last few days. Any reason? 

I did saw that DBSV upped it TP to $1.50+ ... 

 

still inching up slowly...

somehow the transacted volume is getting higher recently..

Mr. market believes the recent machinery investment can improve productivity? 

 

yup.. I do have concerns about the vPost business...

but let's see whether their recent investments can result in much better cashflow in the future or not...   if I don't see good improvements, I'll consider taking money off the table. 

at the moment I'm just riding on the yield play... it doesn't happen very often, so enjoy the ride before it ends..

orangejuice01      ( Date: 16-Apr-2013 23:02) Posted: Biz model of vPost (Singpost's subs) to bring customers' shipment into Sg from USA, Europe, Jpn and China is very sound but the strategy and execution are way below par esp with the customer services - so many unhappy customers of   vPost (see local forums).   Its competitions like Comgateway etc are taking away lots of vpost businesses with better services. Singpost management does not seem to be concerned, even though many of 1st time vpost customers are complaining and never return again.  springpig      ( Date: 21-Mar-2013 13:13) Posted: Inching up slowly out of the sideways movement...  Capital inflow to the defensives??

 

Biz model of vPost (Singpost's subs) to bring customers' shipment into Sg from USA, Europe, Jpn and China is very sound but the strategy and execution are way below par esp with the customer services - so many unhappy customers of   vPost (see local forums).   Its competitions like Comgateway etc are taking away lots of vpost businesses with better services.

Singpost management does not seem to be concerned, even though many of 1st time vpost customers are complaining and never return again. 

springpig      ( Date: 21-Mar-2013 13:13) Posted: Inching up slowly out of the sideways movement...  Capital inflow to the defensives??

 

Inching up slowly out of the sideways movement... 

Capital inflow to the defensives?? 

 

oh sorry i din say clearly.

i sold nothing to do with counter lousy or wat.

i just need some quick cash to buy me a distress property 

funny interest rate hasnt gone up ppl already cant hold liao. mr khaw very good leh. 

 

still climbing together with the 20dMA and 50dMA...

hope it will have a nice bounce off 20dMA. 

 

As long as the world economy is still uncertain, I'll just enjoy dividend from this counter..   maybe it can be considered a perpetuity.  

 

 

Wah! So long never look at this stock but I am still holding it.

 

just to let all my singpost kaki know tat i had just sold all my holding n left 5Lots (for free makan in AGM)

for past 10 over yrs we met yrly n enjoy food n talk cock session.   cheers to all n huat

btw love to see the red " sell to buyers" running continuously for a while hahaha 

 

I don't expect an intense capital gain until management can prove their acquisitions & digital mailbox can give significant contributions to the earning.

For now, at least the 6.25cents dividend is almost guaranteed although the share price cannot be considered cheap. 

 

I hope they can help to control the cost of the companies they acquired and improve the processes, translating them into better earning for singpost. 

 

Super divy and capital gains stock.. best of both worlds

3QFY13 results in line

Singapore Post (SingPost) reported a 14.5% YoY rise in revenue to

S$171.0m but saw a 5.1% fall in net profit to S$39.5m in 3QFY13.

Excluding one-off items, underlying net profit rose 2.5% to S$39.8m in

the quarter. Results were in line with our expectations, such that 9M13

net profit accounted for 76.7% of our full year estimate.

Strong revenue performance

In the mail division, domestic mail volume continued to decline,

registering the fifth quarter of lower mail volumes. However, strong

growth in international e-commerce packets and contributions from

Novation Solutions helped to boost mail revenue by 20.5% YoY.

Excluding Novation Solutions, growth was still good at 15.1%. Logistics

and retail also saw growth of 10.9% and 19.8%, respectively.

Notwithstanding the fact that 3QFY13 was the festive season which

generally brings in greater revenue, it is encouraging to see the 11.2%

QoQ growth (vs +6.0% in 3QFY12, +7.9% in 3QFY11 and 7.2% in

3QFY10).

Focus on growth and cost pressures

We expect the focus going forward will still remain on cost management

to contain inflationary pressures and rising labour related expenses,

while pursuing growth initiatives. The group has been increasingly active

in the M& A space, having spent a total of S$97m in its acquisition of

General Storage Pte Ltd (which runs the Lock+Store self-storage

business) and a 62.5% stake in a sea freight consolidator and freightforwarder

in the last two months.

Stock has done well downgrading to HOLD

SingPost has done well after we upgraded it to BUY in early Jan last year.

As a stock, SingPost has rewarded shareholders with handsome returns

while providing stability and ease of mind. As it is now trading close to

our fair value estimate of S$1.23, we downgrade it to

forward to SingPost’s transformation as it seeks more growth

opportunities, but till then, we see limited upside potential unless

earnings growth from its acquisitions proves to be better than expected.HOLD. We look

STOCK HAS DONE WELL

DOWNGRADE TO HOLD

• Results in line

• Stock has rewarded shareholders well

• Downgrading to HOLD on valuations

28 Jan 2013

Company Update

SINGAPORE POST | BUY

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Singapore | Logistics

HOLD (downgrade)

Fair value S$1.23

add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06

versus: Current price S$1.21

12m total return forecast 7%

Analysts

Low Pei Han, CFA (Lead) E +65 6531 9813

lowph@ocbc-research.com

Chia Jiunyang, CFA E +65 6531 9809

chiajy@ocbc-research.com

Key information

Market cap. (m) S$2,298 /

USD1,860

Avg daily turnover (m) S$3 /

USD3

Avg daily vol. (m) 3.1

52-wk range (S$) 0.955 - 1.21

Free float (%) 71.6

Shares o/s. (m) 1,899.0

Exchange SGX

BBRG ticker SPOST SP

Reuters ticker SPOS.SI

ISIN code S08

GICS Sector Industrials

GICS Industry

Air Freight &

Logistics

Top shareholder SingTel - 26.0%

Relative total return 1m 3m 12m

Company (%) 6 5 33

STI-adjusted (%) 2 -2 16

Price performance chart

0.87

0.97

1.07

1.16

1.26

1.36

Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Oct-12

2600

2900

3200

3500

3800

4100

Fair Value SPOST SP FSSTI

Shar e Pr ice (S$) Index Level

`

Sources: Bloomberg, OIR estimates

Industry-relative metrics

0th 25th 50th 75th 100th

PB

PE

ROE

Beta

Mkt Cap

Company Indust r y Aver age

Per cent i l e

Note: Industry universe defined as companies under identical GICS classification

listed on the same exchange.

Sources: Bloomberg, OIR estimates

Key financial highlights

Year ended 31 Mar (S$m) FY11 FY12 FY13F FY14F

Revenue 565.8 578.5 615.0 618.0

Operating expenses -386.1 -416.4 -450.4 -452.4

EBITDA 221.3 204.5 208.9 212.0

Net profit att to shareholders 161.0 142.0 144.5 153.2

EPS (S cents) 8.3 7.5 7.6 8.1

Cons. EPS (S cts) na na 46.8 62.3

EBITDA margin (%) 39.1 35.3 34.0 34.3

Net profit margin (%) 28.4 24.5 23.5 24.8

ROE (%) 49.4 45.4 42.7 41.0

Price/NTA (x) 9.8 10.3 9.3 8.2