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COT's PE ratio meaningless if full year loss -If analysis changed valuation method to DCF - downside & TP downgrades akan datang.
Real suspicious counter. Its insane that the price can fall so quickly. Luckily I cut my losses fast, if i am still holding this counter now, I would be in -ve $35000. Real insane.
"On 21 January 2008, a total number of 50,000,000 share options were granted to Directors
and key management staff of the Company. The options are exercisable at S$0.54 per
share with an exercise period commencing from 21 January 2009 until 21 January 2018
(both days inclusive)." - note the duration of exercise period.
"However, according to management’s anticipation, the delivery of all the orders on hand in
FY2008 is uncertain, especially the delivery of some ASP injection equipment. This is mainly
due to the delay in production of some supporting materials by customers in the ASP injection
station. This uncertainty would not affect our total orders but might shift some of our revenue
recognition from FY2008 to FY2009. The Group is closely monitoring the situation and will
make the relevant annoucement when necessary." - note the potential for more profit warning in FY2008.
FY2009 will very likely report profits generated by the Rmb175mil orders-on-hand in FY2007.
Their trade payables are also deteriorating rapidly.
ya all out to cheat........IPO 1st year, yet this happen.
jackjames ( Date: 14-Aug-2008 10:01) Posted:
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the result is shitty...
SGX should take action on this kind of counter... the half year results net profit in LOSS 24 millions RMB... oh dear... it can crash to < 0.10 ...
Results were just released & have reviewed them. see @ SGX.com
I expect there to be TP downgrades.
PE is currently about 7.9. not cheap without proven profit growth.
Given evidence that not only has revenue growth evaporated on a non-seasonal demand basis for their most touted high margin oil recovery product. Orders on-hand are visibly smaller for the full year. On 26 May in Edge Singapore it was stated to be Rmb 200 mil - but is now reported to be Rmb 175 mil - a reversal of Rmb 25 mil. How does order on hand - become reduced?
The initial solid evidence is emerging that questions the viable growth story investors were sold.
Maybe China Petro - Daqing- not a satisfied customer? Remember oil is much more expensive then it was a year ago.
Why demand for key high margin products decreasing?
When the famous Laksa hawker stall - starts to try selling prawn noodle. & demand for famous laksa can not catch supply.
Must ask why leh...
Maybe underground pipelines are damaged as suggested in Edge article. But management did not cite these as reasons.
Rough days to continue for the stock.
My belief is the growth story for COT is still intact. COT presents a very attractive buy as a growth story @ current
- Daqing oilfield is a strategic asset for China.
- Geo-political problems with oil is increasing.
- 50% market share in Daqing.
- 60,000 oil wells in daqing only 6,000 with tertiary recovery.
- Oil staying above US$100
- Founder own 47% of the company.
- Boss & wife team. Hometown. Family income, wealth & social reputation primarily from success of COT.
- No turnover of key staff.
This is a very real business embodied by many petrochemical, electrical & mechanical engineers and technicians. They continue to hire more. Their new equipment assembly facilities is 8 x 60,000 sq feet. 2 currently operating.
- Daqing oilfield is a strategic asset for China.
- Geo-political problems with oil is increasing.
- 50% market share in Daqing.
- 60,000 oil wells in daqing only 6,000 with tertiary recovery.
- Oil staying above US$100
- Founder own 47% of the company.
- Boss & wife team. Hometown. Family income, wealth & social reputation primarily from success of COT.
- No turnover of key staff.
This is a very real business embodied by many petrochemical, electrical & mechanical engineers and technicians. They continue to hire more. Their new equipment assembly facilities is 8 x 60,000 sq feet. 2 currently operating.
When a company IPO, it is always valued at it's maximum.
:( vested
agreed but to be fair, during the IPO launch, their results, etc... looks very good... suddenly the sentimental changed...sad case for this counter..
yes, cosco is a better bet.
Juz my humble opinions... China stocks are full of hype wif little substance, even wif substance, mgt tend to be super stingy thinking tt we owe them (bcos they may us rich by making the stock price high high) instead of the other way round... Best to stay away or buy counter wif strong revenues like Cosco (when they tank) 
feel sorry for this stock, 0.205 ? can't believe it was above 1++ during the IPO launch..
<p>Their last report was in may, so expect the next report in august.
<p>Expect a drop on opening come monday.
<p>Part of a series of see-saw price fluctuations around the support of 30 cents.
<p>vested and hopeful.
how can we check when is their Q2 announcement date ?
COT will probably be in ghost mode for a while in the absence of any good news.
Only its 2nd quarter earnings report will suffice to send it up...
I think COT will continue to fall as long as prices of oil continue to rise and as long as it does not announce any spectecular earnings soon.
the 1st quarter earnings report was zilch, supposedly due to seasonal nature of business. If they do not start showing some results in this quarter, be prepared to bleed with me....
How long can it go ?? Most of them trading at single digit PE !
yeah many china stocks are so pressed now. not sure after olympics will they fall further
High oil prices will remain for some time, and Exploration & Production firms will want to squeeze every drop of oil from existing fields. Not only are finding new fields increasingly difficult, cost of equipment has also risen dramatically. These facts remain.
This counter is probably dragged down by overall macro-economic theme affecting market sentiment: stagflation.
Also, to put things in perspective, immediately after IPO, this counter was trading close to 30x earnings. Now it's probably like 11-12x. But do note that many S-shares are trading at 5-6x earnings at the moment.
Bottom line: Good prospects but may have to hold long term (ie. 5 years or so), and not to mention execution risks (such as higher equipment and raw material costs) along the way
China Oilfield Technology Services - Beyond the glitz and glamour
Yeo Sue En, 20 Jun 2008
It looks like the scraping of the bottom of an oil well doesn't sit too well with investors despite its assurances that the business is a lucrative one.
This oil recovery equipment maker listed on the Singapore Exchange on 17 October 2007.
Yeo Sue En, 20 Jun 2008
It looks like the scraping of the bottom of an oil well doesn't sit too well with investors despite its assurances that the business is a lucrative one.
This oil recovery equipment maker listed on the Singapore Exchange on 17 October 2007.