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Hopefully they said is true.....
"Maintain BUY, TP: S$2.89. We maintain our positive long term view of the prospects of this company as global demand for fish grows. In addition, as its operations grow in the South Pacific, via its fishmeal business and from the elongation of vessels for deployment to harvest Chilean Jack Mackerels, it should provide further growth for the Group. "
DBS Vickers - Higher oil prices, lower fishmeal prices
�� Story: CFG 3Q and 9M results, while strong, came in below our high expectations.
�� Point: As a result of its 3rd and 4th Vessel Operating Agreements (VOAs) signed in Jan 07 and the acquisition of Peruvian fishmeal operations, revenue grew 143% and 171% for 3Q and 9M, respectively. However, due to higher operating costs arising largely from higher bunker expenses, 9M net profit improved by a lower 57% to US$70.3m, from US$44.8m.
�� Relevance: We have lowered our net profit forecasts by 7% - 11% for FY07F ? FY09F due to changes in our assumptions on (i) higher bunker costs and other operating expenses; and (ii) lower fishmeal prices reflecting recent weakness but offset by a higher assumed selling price of Alaskan Pollock. Consequently, our TP is adjusted to S$2.89, based on 13x FY08F earnings. Notwithstanding the above, we still maintain our positive view of the prospects of this company as a result of growing global demand for fishery products.
A decent set of 9M results, though below our high expectations.
Revenue of US$327.89m was 67.5% (US$221.3m) contributed by its trawling operations with the remaining 32.5% from its fishmeal operations. Gross margins were at 33.9%, down from 42.5% as a result of higher operating costs such as bunker and wages as well as the inclusion of its fishmeal operations.
Softer fishmeal prices. Fishmeal prices have softened this year after reaching highs of almost US$1,400/mt in 2006. We understand that fishmeal prices in China are currently trading at around the US$900/mt range, down from above US$1,000/mt since the beginning of 2007. Management has explained that the weaker price was probably due to (i) the outbreak of blue-ear diseases affecting swine rearing; (ii) United States? FDA (Food & Drug Administration) imposition of a border import control of farmed fish from China; and (iii) substitution to other feedstock, such as corn and soybean, when prices of fishmeal were high.
Peers trading at higher valuations. We note that global fishery peers are trading at a valuation multiple of circa 13x on prospective earnings. We believe that, at current levels, CFG is trading at a relatively undemanding valuation of 7.7x on our FY08F earnings. This counter also provides a decent dividend yield of 3.3% for FY07F and 4.3% for FY08F.
Maintain BUY, TP: S$2.89. We maintain our positive long term view of the prospects of this company as global demand for fish grows. In addition, as its operations grow in the South Pacific, via its fishmeal business and from the elongation of vessels for deployment to harvest Chilean Jack Mackerels, it should provide further growth for the Group.
ok thanks. newbie, and this is my very very first trade. a bit demoralising =P. guess have alot to learn.
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It has been overbought. The stock rocketed from $1.60 to $1.89 yesterday. Profit taking today. Technicals |
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| RSI | 64.9 | Williams %R | 0.0 | ||
| Comments (RSI) | No Info | Comments (W%R) | Overbought | ||
bought at 1.98 today =( anyone know why it went down? should i cut losses?
why u short??? Think will go up further lor...
ok...SHORTEd this fish burger at 1.88x 5lots !! wish me luck !! :P
below 1 should be good.
This fish is swimming lower and lower everyday. Where's the seabed?
Wow this fish at tempting level... 1.46... P/E ~ 8.5 (DBS est EPS @ 17.1 cts)
wow...fast and furious siah...
| Time | Last | Vol | Buy/Sell |
| 09:54:05 | 1.514 | 70 | X |
| 09:53:01 | 1.530 | 5 | S |
| 09:52:38 | 1.530 | 20 | S |
| 09:52:19 | 1.530 | 6 | S |
| 09:52:18 | 1.520 | 10 | B |
| 09:52:09 | 1.520 | 20 | B |
| 09:50:54 | 1.520 | 4 | S |
| 09:49:52 | 1.520 | 3 | S |
| 09:49:45 | 1.510 | 46 | B |
| 09:49:43 | 1.520 | 5 | S |
| 09:49:23 | 1.520 | 100 | B |
| 09:49:16 | 1.530 | 26 | B |
| 09:49:07 | 1.530 | 5 | S |
| 09:49:06 | 1.530 | 3 | S |
| 09:48:54 | 1.530 | 45 | B |
| 09:48:48 | 1.540 | 3 | S |
| 09:47:39 | 1.540 | 55 | B |
| 09:47:26 | 1.550 | 1 | B |
| 09:47:17 | 1.550 | 9 | S |
| 09:47:16 | 1.550 | 1 | S |
DBS Vickers - Higher oil prices, lower fishmeal prices
�� Story: CFG 3Q and 9M results, while strong, came in below our high expectations.
�� Point: As a result of its 3rd and 4th Vessel Operating Agreements (VOAs) signed in Jan 07 and the acquisition of Peruvian fishmeal operations, revenue grew 143% and 171% for 3Q and 9M, respectively. However, due to higher operating costs arising largely from higher bunker expenses, 9M net profit improved by a lower 57% to US$70.3m, from US$44.8m.
�� Relevance: We have lowered our net profit forecasts by 7% - 11% for FY07F ? FY09F due to changes in our assumptions on (i) higher bunker costs and other operating expenses; and (ii) lower fishmeal prices reflecting recent weakness but offset by a higher assumed selling price of Alaskan Pollock. Consequently, our TP is adjusted to S$2.89, based on 13x FY08F earnings. Notwithstanding the above, we still maintain our positive view of the prospects of this company as a result of growing global demand for fishery products.
A decent set of 9M results, though below our high expectations.
Revenue of US$327.89m was 67.5% (US$221.3m) contributed by its trawling operations with the remaining 32.5% from its fishmeal operations. Gross margins were at 33.9%, down from 42.5% as a result of higher operating costs such as bunker and wages as well as the inclusion of its fishmeal operations.
Softer fishmeal prices. Fishmeal prices have softened this year after reaching highs of almost US$1,400/mt in 2006. We understand that fishmeal prices in China are currently trading at around the US$900/mt range, down from above US$1,000/mt since the beginning of 2007. Management has explained that the weaker price was probably due to (i) the outbreak of blue-ear diseases affecting swine rearing; (ii) United States? FDA (Food & Drug Administration) imposition of a border import control of farmed fish from China; and (iii) substitution to other feedstock, such as corn and soybean, when prices of fishmeal were high.
Peers trading at higher valuations. We note that global fishery peers are trading at a valuation multiple of circa 13x on prospective earnings. We believe that, at current levels, CFG is trading at a relatively undemanding valuation of 7.7x on our FY08F earnings. This counter also provides a decent dividend yield of 3.3% for FY07F and 4.3% for FY08F.
Maintain BUY, TP: S$2.89. We maintain our positive long term view of the prospects of this company as global demand for fish grows. In addition, as its operations grow in the South Pacific, via its fishmeal business and from the elongation of vessels for deployment to harvest Chilean Jack Mackerels, it should provide further growth for the Group.
CIMB - China Fishery (S$1.74) - 3QFY07 results - Increased contributions from fishmeal
In line. 3Q07 net profit of US$19.6m (+72.0% yoy) is in line with our expectations and consensus, with 9M07 net profit of US$70.3m representing 73.6% of our FY07 forecast and 66.7% of consensus.
Increased contributions from fishmeal. The impressive growth was fuelled by contributions from two new vessel operating agreements (VOAs) acquired in Jan 07 and contributions from fishmeal operations, acquired in late FY06. The company turned in impressive sales (+142.9% yoy to US$95.5m) and net profit growth despite seasonal weakness in 3Q for fishmeal sales. Sales contributions from fishmeal increased to 34.4% (US$32.8m) in 3Q07 from 28.8% (US$31.8m) in 2Q07.
Gross margins improved slightly, to 35.9% from 34.6% in 3Q06 as a result of economies of scale and strong sales of fishmeal produced in the preceding quarter. Management also reported that fuel accounted for 24.4% of trawling operating costs, unchanged from 24.2% in FY06. Charter hire expense remained the most significant operating cost for trawling operations, representing 39.3%.
Fishmeal prices have weakened. While the company managed to sell fishmeal at about US$1,000/tonne in 9M07, management cautioned that fishmeal prices have weakened from above US$1,000 at the beginning of the year to US$850. The weakness was due to short-term demand shocks in China arising from a pig shortage and the US ban on farmed fish imports from China.
Maintain Outperform; target price unchanged at S$3.30. We are keeping our EPS estimates intact pending further discussions with management. We had already factored in weaker fishmeal prices earlier. Our target price remains S$3.30, based on 14x CY09 P/E. Maintain Outperform.
DBS Vickers - Higher oil prices, lower fishmeal prices Buy S$1.74; Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.89 (Prev S$ 3.02)
Story: CFG 3Q and 9M results, while strong, came in below our high expectations.
Point: As a result of its 3rd and 4th Vessel Operating Agreements (VOAs) signed in Jan 07 and the acquisition of Peruvian fishmeal operations, revenue grew 143% and 171% for 3Q and 9M, respectively. However, due to higher operating costs arising largely from higher bunker expenses, 9M net profit improved by a lower 57% to US$70.3m, from US$44.8m.
Relevance: We have lowered our net profit forecasts by 7% - 11% for FY07F FY09F due to changes in our assumptions on (i) higher bunker costs and other operating expenses; and (ii) lower fishmeal prices reflecting recent weakness but offset by a higher assumed selling price of Alaskan Pollock.
Consequently, our TP is adjusted to S$2.89, based on 13x FY08F earnings.
Notwithstanding the above, we still maintain our positive view of the prospects of this company as a result of growing global demand for fishery products.