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Aug 25 2008 MISCELLANEOUS :: ANALYST PRESENTATION - 3RD FINANCIAL QUARTER 2008
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_BAEFACC7ECF9F9F4482574B00055C722/$file/Mermaid_Analyst_Presentation_FQ3_2008.pdf?openelement
Operating profit (Baht’000) Q3'2007:$252,134 vs Q3'2008:$458,184 +81.72%
Rigs are in operational => cash flow is visible ... ==> value enhanced..
jasonrxz ( Date: 08-May-2008 11:08) Posted:
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Finally see some light at the end of the tunnel.... this baby moves with great speed but still low vol... hope to see at least 20000lots done and to be confirm on uptrend////.... broke up just now.... hope soar to higher height...
cheers
I have the feeling that the brokage reports and news I posted are not well received.
I may be too sensitive to feel that or maybe been not sensitive enough to feel it so late.
Hence, I will stop posting them and will only post my views and analysis, if any.
Sorry for the inconvenience caused.
if you read my previous msg's sentence again, u'd see it ended with "jokingly" = not to be taken literally.
pls continue postings at SJ. thanks for sharing.
Ranking does not mean anything. It just indicate how freqent and many forumer had posted.
I posted with the mind of sharing news and reports with SJ forumers, and also for my referencing back next time.
It will be spam if one finds it useless.
If that is the case , I will stop sharing news and reports from now on.
Those who saw my hint on Monday (26/11) would have pocketed 25% by today. Not bad, still got plenty of Blue Tunas left.
BBs are really big anglers, they're looking for Great Whites! Truly beyond my league. I would be happy with a Marlin.
Instead of the usual kopi-o, heck! we're going to have plenty blue tuna sashimi.
Cheers! pinnacle, difficult to make money if one worry got trap or not ;-). Congratulation, noticed you just got promoted to Elite status. How did you achieve it? I hope it's not by spam, jokingly.
Another trap in the making?
| Time | Last | Volume | Buy/Sell |
| 09:00:37 | 1.930 | 5,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:00:36 | 1.930 | 10,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:00:32 | 1.930 | 15,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:00:29 | 1.930 | 10,000 | Sell Down |
| 09:00:26 | 1.930 | 5,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:00:23 | 1.930 | 2,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:00:21 | 1.930 | 5,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:00:20 | 1.930 | 10,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:00:03 | 1.920 | 10,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:00:00 | 1.910 | 5,000 | Buy Up |
| 08:59:03 | 1.900 | 282,000 | X |
This Mermaid looks set to continue its swim up-stream today with the good sentiment generated from good closing of DJ last night.
Mermaid Maritime's wholly owned subsidiary Mermaid Offshore Services has secured 2 contracts to provide remotely operated vehicle (ROV) and diving services to BP Indonesia. The services shall commence in Dec '08 and is expected to be for up to 12 months covering BP Indonesia's '08 requirements in their West Java development field. The aggregate value of the contracts is estimated to be US$32 - 38 m.
Be very careful when fishing.
Look at their past trading history, this Mermaid can bite.
Calling all anglers, the fishing season has just gotten underway. Happy fishing all the way to Christmas.
This time, aiming to bring home a marlin.
Cheers!
Macquarie Research Equities - This Mermaid?s for real!
We initiate coverage of Mermaid Maritime with an Outperform rating and S$3.00 target price, offering 81.8% potential upside.
With the focus shifting down the oil and gas value chain towards offshore service providers, Mermaid is able to leverage its strong execution track record to take advantage of the robust demand for offshore support services.
Strong demand for offshore services
Oil services providers are likely to enjoy high earnings growth as oil companies strive to increase exploration & production (E&P) activity. Sustained high oil prices should keep the demand for oil services high. Douglas-Westwood, a leading energy consultant, expects offshore spending to rise from US$190bn in 2006 to US$250bn in 2010.
Drilling services will continue to enjoy high utilisation levels. Demand remains high while supply is constrained, leading to higher day rates and longer charters.
The Quest 2006 report forecasts subsea capex to rise from US$3bn in 2006 to US$5.6bn in 2010 as development of new and marginal fields, maintenance and decommissioning activities increase.
Significant earnings growth
We expect EPS to grow 69.7% in FY08 driven by repricing MTR-1, and higher utilisation of the tender rig fleet. Growth catalysts in FY09 and FY10 are expected to be, respectively, the addition of one tender rig and two DP vessels, and a second tender rig, in addition to potential upside on the day rates for Mermaid?s existing fleet.
Mermaid?s two tender drilling rigs are currently contracted at day rates of US$67,500 and US$75,000 vs the current market rate of US$100,000?110,000, and will be repriced in 3Q FY08 and 4Q FY09. Having already announced plans to build one new tender rig with the option to build three more, we expect Mermaid to announce its decision for a second newbuild tender in the next two months.
Mermaid?s subsea fleet comprises six vessels, of which four are owned and two are chartered. To tap the strong demand in the region, Mermaid has decided to build a dynamic positioning (DP) vessel at a cost of US$25?30m, charter a second vessel, and potentially take a stake in a Malaysian company that owns two DP vessels.
Undemanding valuation
We expect ROE to rise from 21.8% in FY07 to 28.2% in FY10, with simultaneous de-leveraging of the balance sheet from 67.9% net debt/equity ratio in FY07 to net cash in FY10. The three-year EPS CAGR of 65.6% is higher than that of any other Singapore-listed peers.
At the current share price, Mermaid is trading at 8.0x forward PER (FY09, current year is FY08), compared to the 15.1x peer average (FY08E). Our target price implies 14.5x FY09E PER, which compares favourably to the sector average.
The combination of strong earnings growth, improving balance sheet, attractive valuation and significant upside makes Mermaid one of our top picks in Singapore.
Valuation & risks
We estimate Mermaid?s fair value at S$3.00/share using a DCF methodology. We have assumed 10.4% weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and 3.5% terminal growth rate, in cognisance of the business? Thai incorporation.
Pinnacle...it happens to all counters, not just this one. First buy up in big lots, then sell down later when the price jump a few notches up. Same to buying... Today this counter was upgraded by analyst. I didn't know the euphoria was so strong in the morning. If it's really a good buy, the price should not jump so much in a day, 20% (30˘), hence I just short when the afternoon session opened.
This is an old trick.
I had observed Mermaid for couples of weeks.
First they buy up in large volume to generate interest, then small retailers will follow to buy up the price.
Then at a high point, you will see small lot selling down.
If you bought in too late, you will be caught in the sell down trend and no time to react.
Nick...you bailed out too soon lah.... as expected, the price slifde from 190 to 183, bcos the resistance is extremely strong at 192, plus the mermaid bo lak liao!
Dolphin......... more Dolphins...........
Looks like the Mermaid got no momentum liao. If it's not going up, should come down then...
funny...less than 10 lots can move the price up and down...puzzled!
dun play play...covered at 1.88 x5 !!! oldman cant take the heat ! :P