GoldenAgri   

Cheapest Among Singapore Planters

Synergy Drive, a merger between several large plantation companies in Malaysia will list its shares this coming November 30 in BURSA. Market forecast that Synergy Drive will boost a market capitalisation of RM 80 Billion upon listng, thus becoming the world's largest plantation company.

Golden Agri will be benefited by this listing and share price will rise accordingly.

 

Golden now 1.86 (TP 2.60 means 39% upside) Indo now 2.40 (TP 2.80 means 16% upside) wilmar now 4.84 (TP 5.90 means 21% upside)

 

CIMB are raising earnings forecasts by 5-28% for FY07 09. Their earnings upgrade takes into account their new CPO price projections, the new progressive export tax for Indonesia's palm products and higher fertiliser costs. The Indonesian government recently raised the CPO export tax for Indonesia to 10% from 7.5%, following a sharp climb in international CPO prices. They also understand from planters that fertiliser costs are likely to go up by 20-30% next year, in line with rising mineral-oil prices.

Following their revisions, they now expect Golden Agri to book a 421% and 45% jump in FY07 and FY08 core profits, respectively, on higher palm prices and production volume. They project the group to post flattish net income in FY09 as strong FFB output is expected  to offset a projected 5% decline in CPO prices.

CIMB like GAR potential as the majority of its oil palm is immature. They raised their tp from $1.90 to $2.60.

 

so optimistic? duno for real or not siah
 

DJ MARKET TALK: CLSA Starts Golden Agri At Buy, Target S$2.23

0745 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CLSA starts Golden Agri Resources (C6K.SG) at Buy with target price of S$2.23. "While the stock price has performed well on the back rising CPO prices, we still see good value in the company." Says share "cheap" vs peers in Malaysia, Indonesia, while it should be trading at least on par on potential catalyst from US$5.5 billion investment biodiesel project with CNOOC (0083.HK), largest output among peers. "With 97% of earnings coming from plantation, Golden Agri is one of the purest oil palm plantation play amongst its peers, and is the most leverages to rising CPO price." Notes 77% of company's oil palms are in prime age, which means plantation will be producing peak output for next ten years, even as new plantings mature and continue to contribute. Share up 4.9% at S$1.94. (LES)

 
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140; 
MarketTalk@dowjones.com 
 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

 

incredible rise ... hope to see it go up and up!!!

 

plantation stock become the market darling recently in msia and singapore due to it's cheap valuation and rising CPO price.....

 

tomorrow maybe will drop

 

why is price up so sharply these few days, any news? can buy right now?

 

 

My opinion is that strong support at 1.35 to 1.37....and it may test 1.58 to 1.60 in short term...

Good luck.

(Hope i m correct...)

 

Current weakness in price create good entry point ...

Aim to accumulate more to keep

 

If you have missed IndoAgri & Wilmar, this is the one for you....

this plantation stock is still undervalued with bright prospect.

 IndoAgri & Wilmar has become relative pricey after recent stock rally.

 

TARGET PRICE @ SG$1.78
As plantation companies typically peak at no less than 20x forward PE, we have assigned a target PE of 20x for
Golden Agri, which we believe is justifiable based on:
1. Size. Golden Agri is the second largest oil palm plantation company in the world after Synergy
Drive in terms of planted hectarage but the biggest in terms of total landbank.
2. Long term growth potential. Golden Agri?s unplanted landbank of 1.3m ha is 4x bigger than its
planted hectarage hence securing its long-term growth path. This alone should justify a premium
as the value of the unplanted landbank is not reflected in current earnings nor its current market
capitalization.
3. Foothold in Indonesia. Golden Agri, having its origin in Indonesia, has mastered the difficult
operating conditions in Indonesia and this strong foothold should at least allow it to command
valuation at par with its large cap peers. We think this is an important consideration as Indonesia
is the hot spot for oil palm plantation growth for the next 10 years.
Valuation parameters. Based on 20x FY08 earnings, we derived a 12-month target price of SG$1.78,
representing upside of 29%. Investors with longer investment horizon will enjoy more substantial upside given
the significant earnings growth in FY09. Longer term target price for Golden Agri is pegged at SG$2.34, based
on 20x FY09 earnings.
Golden Agri has outperformed Malaysia?s Plantation Index since August this year (as denoted by rising Golden
Agri?s stock price divided by Plantation Index). We believe the outperformance was a result of discovery process
as Golden Agri?s management had been on roadshow to Europe and the US to promote the company besides
holding quarterly analysts? briefing. While this could be followed by some price pullback in the near term, we
believe Golden Agri?s is in for a long-term outperformance. We are recommending the company as a core longterm
holding.

 

Even Msia OSK also cover Golden Agri with TP of $1.78

To me, GoldenAgri still the best plantation stock to hold in Spore.

Compare to Wilmar, GoldenAgri is much bigger in plantation area and total palm oil production. IndoAgri is even smaller scale in size.

 

 

 

Golden Agri Resources is world?s second largest oil palm plantation company in
terms of planted hectarage and the largest in terms of total landbank. Golden Agri
is also top 3 in terms of oil yield. Valuation-wise, recent stock price
outperformance has put it nearly at par with most large cap peers. Nevertheless,
given (i) its size, (ii) long term growth prospects, (iii) foothold in Indonesia and (iv)
bullish industry outlook, we are recommending Golden Agri is as a core holding for
exposure to the plantation sector. We are initiating coverage with a Buy call at a
target price of SG$1.78, based on 20x FY08 earnings.

 

Golden Agri?s size vs. other big cap plantation companies
                         Planted area, ha     Production, t
Synergy Drive 522,197          9,703,845
Golden Agri 345,850         6,001,000
Agro Lestari 220,795         3,640,427
Wilmar 191,495                 2,507,098
IOI Corp 148,871            3,796,785
KL Kepong 123,462            2,450,257

 

HOLD for next rise in CPO.

So far it cheong few times within 1 month... and the potential is still there...TP=1.90..still room for 'growth'.

 

 

Don't worry. I personally still confident in this stock. Cheaper compared to Wilmar and IndoAgri

 

but today drop below 1.5, is it signal for selling?

 

hurray...CIMB TP = 1.90

Think it will take a while for it to move up to 1.90 

 

According to The Edge, trading above $1.5 resistance, meaning next target of $1.8 ...

 

Cheers !!!!

 

I too have the same story as some of you, had held the share for donkey years.  I am thinking of selling off or should i buy more?

 

Wish the news on First Resouces continue to trigger buying interest for Golden Agri. Looking forward for MONDAY