1) It is Mister
2) Every shares that are listed can be bought
3) The emphasize here is which is a better deal? And the title
" Why OCBC is a better choice" said it all. For supporting claims, read the entire thing.
Cheers.
ysh2006 ( Date: 31-Jul-2013 22:58) Posted:
Ms Rosesyrup
Too long the report, just want to know can buy ?...DBS save money not to buy Danamon Bank the US grading authority can give better grade to DBS loh... |
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Why OCBC is a better choice.
Not long ago, analysts claimed that DBS would be a better choice of investment than OCBC and UOB. Reasons given were:
A1) Singapore Government's cooling measure housing market would hurt the local banks. Since DBS is diversified across Asia, it would be less exposed to the impact of the cooling measure than banks (OCBC & UOB) who are mostly based in Singapore.
A2) DBS investment outside Singapore, gives it better growth opportunity.
A3) High amount of housing loans hold by Singapore Banks risk turning into large amount of Non Performing Loan when interest rate hike inevitably- claimed by Moody.
In my opinion, the above points are not the full story and a decision based upon those might be distorted. Allow me to share the reason why pure local banks are better selections.
1) Cooling Measure VS Economic Crisis
The worry about more property cooling measure to come, is a needless one. After some 7 rounds of cooling measure, property price and transaction volume are beginning to fall. Since the government policies has taken effect and reach its aim of cooling the market, it makes no sense to continue hammering the market with new measures. In fact we can expect government to start removing those measure as soon as interest rate starts moving up- most probably after 1 year. Removing those cooling measure is necessary to increase the liquidity of housing market and allow those investors cannot afford the high interest rate to sell their properties. The next question that comes naturally would be: Why would government want to help those investors who can't afford high interest rate? Well, those investors pledged their properties when apply for housing loan. If they can't afford the rising interest rate their properties and can't sell their properties, their properties would be seized and sell in the market. When such cases happened to large amount of investors, we can quickly see the market flooded with worthless properties while banks see many loan turn bad and collateral turn worthless- a repeat of US 2008 subprime crisis. As a small country, the economic resulting hardship would be unbearable. Thus government would its best to prevent such crisis and a necessary step would be to increase the liquidity of the property market once interest rate starts hiking.
In constrast, the risk of economic disruption as a result of fund exiting Asia would prove to be more worrying. This is especially true for developing countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, and India- check out news about India struggle to hike interest rate in order to fight currency devaluation. If not handled properly, the history of 1997 currency crisis would repeat itself and companies in the those countries would simply go bust. In all these developing Asian countries, DBS has stake in them and thus it run a high risk of suffering a huge loss should anything happened to these countries. Thanks to the smart polices by MAS, Singapore is expected to weather such economic disruption and thus" pure" Singapore banks are expected to be spared from the crisis. Strong policies that MAS have imposed to protect the economy include appreciation of SGD to its all time high and agreeing to accept Japanese bonds as collateral.
2) The Real Opportunity To Growth
Growth opportunites offered in other Asian countries are truly debatable. In the bid to protect their economy, most countries have imposed strong protectionism policies on their fianacial industries. These protectionsim policies limit the growth and competitiveness of foreign banks. A good example can be seen from the recent case where Temasek Holding faced tons of hurdles when it tried to sell shares of Indonesia's Danamon Bank to DBS. What is a growth opportunity when you can't even cash out?
On the other hand, Singapore as a financial hub for South East Asia and with its strong economic stability offer much more attractive growth opportunity for the local banks. Foregin business preferred to set up in Singapore and foreign funds flow first into Singapore then to the rest of SEA countries.We can safely assume this will continue to be the case for at least the next 5-10 years. Thus banks who focus more on local market are expected to grow better than bank who seek growth in other SEA countries.
3) MAS's ACE Card
As always Moody tends to exaggerate " crisis" that is unlikely to happen and comfort you when there is real crisis lurking (2008 subprime is a good example). Crisis as a result of high amount of housing debt is UNLIKELY to happen in Singapore. As mentioned above, the cooling measure can be removed to improve liquidity in the market, this provides opportunity for those who cannot afford the rising interest rate to exit the market. Secondly, government's plan on increasing the population by 2020 should also provide ample demand to balance the supply in propety market. Most importantly, MAS has an ACE card up its sleeve that will allow it to buy some time before rising the local interest rate- inevitably Singapore interest rate is highly pegged to US interest rate, which is expected to rise when Fed stops it QE by mid 2014. Remember the " All time high SGD" we are talking about? The high SGD gives MAS more flexibility and room in choosing to devaluate SGD over increasing interest rate. This delay the need to rise local interest rate, and should give sufficient time for property investors to be warned of the rising rate and to liquidate their properties. Thus the crisis warned by Moody is high avoidable and should not be of major concern.
In a nutshell, with the low economic risk and high growth opportunity, Singapore financial market is a much better investment than many SEA market. With this I concluded that banks that focus on local markets (OCBC & UOB) will fare much better than bank (DBS) that is diversified across the volatile Asia markets. As for why OCBC is preferred over UOB, it is because size does matter.
Just sharing my view here, email me rosesyrup123@yahoo.com if you have something to share with me. Thanks.
The above analysis is purely my personal opinion. I urge you to do your own assessment and calculation for any relevant decision making purposes.
Author: Rosesyrup
Cld be good news and cld be bad news depending on how market want to play it up.
DBS's 2Q13 earnings predicted to slide 12% to $835m
Here are 3 reasons why.
According to CIMB, DBS’s 2Q13 net profit is expected (CIMB: S$835m vs. consensus S$887m) to ease down 12% qoq as 1Q13 was extremely strong on the back of:
1) investment banking and other capital markets-related fees being higher-than-usual because of huge fees earned from the Thai Bev deal
2) wealth management fees showing up partly from DBS HK pursuing a successful wealth strategy and
3) new POSB mortgage product helping to mitigate margin pressure.
Here's more from CIMB:
We reckon that 2Q13 will see the toning down of some of the positives from the first two drivers. IB fees will likely ease down sequentially as it compares against a high base in 1Q, while 2Q debt-capital markets activity in June was muted and some equity capital market deals were pushed back into 3Q.
Providing some ballast for non-interest income is the presence of trade finance flows re-surfacing in 1Q. We think that DBS has done very well in this space and we hope to see its trade finance volumes hold up in the midst of rising competition from Chinese banks.
- See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/financial-services/news/dbss-2q13-earnings-predicted-slide-12-835m#sthash.CK4CfTDK.dpuf
It is time to up the interest rate.
1419242 ( Date: 03-Sep-2012 00:31) Posted:
| DBS ups FD rates as its deposits dip in Q2 |  |
By Siow Li Sen
DBS Bank has jacked up its fixed deposit (FD) rates in a bid to retain its customers.
Since Aug 15, Singapore's biggest bank has raised the FD rates for tenures of three to 24 months for amounts ranging from $1,000 to $999,999.
For three to five-month deposits, the new rate is 0.10 per cent, up from 0.05 per cent. For 18 months, the new rate is 0.50 per cent, up from 0.10 per cent previously. For 24 months, it is 0.55 per cent, up from 0.125 per cent.
For one to two-month deposits, the rate remains unchanged at 0.05 per cent.
A DBS spokeswoman said the revision was in alignment with market rates.
Kenneth Ng, CIMB's head of research, said Singapore banks have been losing deposit share in the second quarter, and DBS's move was a response to deposit competition in the market.
DBS's deposits dipped to $230.6 billion in Q2 from $232.2 billion in Q1.
" The foreign banks have been very aggressive on FD rates, with time deposit rates around one per cent," he said.
CIMB Bank has a promotion, which pays 1.10 per cent for a 12-month FD for amounts of between $25,000 and $1 million.
" Some of the Singapore banks, including DBS, have said they were quite content to lose some share in time deposits as Singapore dollar liquidity is still rather abundant, but you cannot keep losing deposits for too long or else competitors will have a chance to take over your client relationship," said Mr Ng.
" We read this as reacting to the time deposit competition in the market," he added.
The other two local banks - OCBC Bank and United Overseas Bank (UOB) - have so far opted for short-term promotions.
OCBC has upped the ante for its hybrid savings account. Yesterday, it offered savers $800 cash if they left $500,000 with the bank for at least six months, which will enjoy 1.08 per cent interest for certain months and 0.6 per cent in other months. The promotion is from Aug 29 to Sept 28.
UOB's seven-month FD promotion, which ends tomorrow, pays one per cent for a minimum deposit of $20,000.
BT understands that UOB will roll out more deposit promotions in the coming months. |
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Giving higher interest rates forgoes some profit in the next few quarters. Sign sign, loh, lol.
Dont bother to loan out your shares. The earnings are miniscule and if you are hoping your shares will soar, you are betting against yourself! It only benefits the shortsellers who borrow your shares to bet against you.
Nokita ( Date: 20-Aug-2012 21:45) Posted:
| Is this regular? Anyone has experienced of shares loaned out?
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Simply put, human hands are at play.
iPunter ( Date: 18-Aug-2012 07:44) Posted:
Stocks are like that...
After you have sold or shorted, it may continue to rise some more...
But if you hold it, or buy some more, it may drop like sheet...
That's why stocks is not an easy game to play... lol... 
sengsk ( Date: 17-Aug-2012 09:18) Posted:
Personal view, Once it touch on 20MA
Maybe ~ (11.55-11.58) might good to short.
Dun hold and cover back for some coffee will do. |
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see whether u are lucky or not~
or whether u have a smart guide around you or under-table tips~~~
iPunter ( Date: 18-Aug-2012 07:44) Posted:
Stocks are like that...
After you have sold or shorted, it may continue to rise some more...
But if you hold it, or buy some more, it may drop like sheet...
That's why stocks is not an easy game to play... lol...
sengsk ( Date: 17-Aug-2012 09:18) Posted:
Personal view, Once it touch on 20MA
Maybe ~ (11.55-11.58) might good to short.
Dun hold and cover back for some coffee will do. |
|
|
|
Stocks are like that...
After you have sold or shorted, it may continue to rise some more...
But if you hold it, or buy some more, it may drop like sheet...
That's why stocks is not an easy game to play... lol...
sengsk ( Date: 17-Aug-2012 09:18) Posted:
Personal view, Once it touch on 20MA
Maybe ~ (11.55-11.58) might good to short.
Dun hold and cover back for some coffee will do. |
|
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