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if jade can go 5.5, magnus will go 6 soon. should be in play these few days! at 4.5c still dirt cheap!
Have we forgotten about this one? I thought they have crude oil too? Any opinions?
Was wondering why such low prices?
Why sudden big volume today?
cathylmg ( Date: 07-Nov-2008 12:32) Posted:
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No volume today for this burger.
It's finally moving today.
Report from Reuters dated 24/6
Hedge funds have piled into the booming coal market, but are chasing already bullish fundamentals rather than creating a potentially fragile investment bubble, analysts said on 24/6. Fund activity will give coal greater liquidity and does not spell the end of its price boom, they said.
"Coal has been the best performing commodity this year, better than oil and natural gas - that's not because of fund buying, but because the market is fundamentally strong," said Francisco Blanche, head of global commodities research at Merrill Lynch.
"Coal is no different to any other commodity from the perspective of funds and other institutions. They look for opportunities," he added. "It's been a 1-way trade for coal this year. We don't see that changing in the near-term."
Coal was for long seen as a backwater in the enery complex and over the counter derivatives trading took off <5 years ago. Unusually for a commodity market there are no more than a handful of traders of substance in coal, and only one physical broker of any size. Traders say attitudes can be conservative among the established market players. They point to concern that coal may echo oil, where speculation has been blamed by producers for inflating a price spiral increasingly unrelated to supply and demand realities.
"The funds invest huge amounts of money but when they pull out, they pull out quickly and prices plunge," one senior European utility source said. "It's happened in other markets and the funds getting into coal probably means the end of the boom is in sight." But fund sources and traders counter that speculative froth has already left the market and funds now hold long positions as passive investors sitting tight. "A lot of banks and funds bailed out 6 months ago when prices dropped US$20," a fund source said. "Those still holding long positions are the ones who won't panic and dump positions. It's being held in strong hands."
The bedrock of funds' positions is a tight market and prices set to keep rising, traders said. Physical and coal derivatives prices have set new record highs throughout this year. Physical coal has been in extremely tight supply around the world. Production and logistical bottlenecks mean supply is unlikely to catch up comfortably with demand for several years.
Prompt physical coal cargoes for delivery into Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp were trading at around US$67 a tonne in 1/07. Prices doubled to around US$130 by 1/08 and have been bid and offered at around US$200 during the past week.
"Unless countries with booming coal demand like China or India cut demand in response to inflationary pressure - which, frankly, we doubt - there's no likelihood of a sharp price fall which would encourage people to liquidate," one hedge fund source said. "Coal is clearly tight as a drum and getting tighter. The coal market is adjusting to fundamental tightness and is re-pricing itself," he said.
"Producers and the big traders are not selling further down the curve for '09, '10, '11. That tells you all you need to know - they believe prices are going higher," a swaps trader said.
For '08 some analysts predict a global shortfall of 10-15 m tonnes of thermal coal. This is a small percentage of annual global trade of around 700 m tonnes but marginal spot trade dictates prices.
"Hedge funds do a lot of homework. They don't just pile into a market. They do a lot more fundamental research than many people realise," said Kevin Norrish, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital. "The funds are following the fundamental trends, not distorting them," he said.
At the rate coal prices are rising, looks like US$180 may be surpassed this year.
Goldman Sachs recommended investors buy coal stocks as fuel demand stays high. "We believe thermal coal is at the cusp of a stronger and longer upcycle," Goldman's analysts Yoke Fong Chee and Song Shen wrote in a note 19/6. "Continued robust demand from emerging markets, unceasing supply constraints and the relative attractiveness of coal to oil underpin high prices."
zhuge_liang ( Date: 24-Jun-2008 12:19) Posted:
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I think it has bottomed out already. Wonder when is the rebound.
Thermal coal prices at Australia's Newcastle port, a benchmark for Asia, surged to a record US$172.10 a ton in the week ended Jun 27, up US$9.44.
30-May-08 US$151.70
06-Jun-08 US$158.53 +6.83
13-Jun-08 US$160.23 +1.70
20-Jun-08 US$162.66 +2.43
27-Jun-08 US$172.10 +9.44
Magnus Energy was the first company on SGX to own producing oil concessions in China. It is also part of a joint venture that holds a petroleum exploration licence in South Australia. A new gas field was discovered in 2005 through exploration under the licence.
Unlike Jade which only has coal now, Magnus is one of the largest stockist and equipment suppliers to the oil drilling market in the region through its subsidiary, the Mid-Continent Equipment Group (MEG). Magnus has made forays into the upstream oil & gas sector, through a farmout agreement for gas excavation in Southern Australia and also the acquisition of 3 producing oilfields in the Jilin Province, China. Magnus' wholly-owned subsidiary Antig Investments Pte. Ltd. also has a majority interest in a coal concession which has a Work Agreement for Coal Mining Enterprises with the Indonesian government to explore, mine and extract coal from the Kuaro coal formation located at Kabupaten Pasir, East Kalimantan, Indonesia. Based on raw coal analysis, the estimate of indicated and inferred coal reserves was approximately 5.12 million tonnes.
Coal stocks have been in for a hard time, hit by rumours. Jade and Straits Asia have dispelled the rumours. Dayen said that its Indonesian counter-party could not “perform its obligations under the Mining Rights Agreement. It is confident of winning its lawsuit against the Indonesian counter-party.
Don't know whether there are rumours about Magnus too? If yes, I hope the mgt will step up to clarify.
Fundamentally, its business is sound with high oil & gas and coal prices.
| 17:05:01 | 0.060 | 110,000 | X |
| 16:55:49 | 0.060 | 20,000 | Sell Down |
| 16:47:10 | 0.065 | 1,000,000 | Buy Up |
| 16:35:08 | 0.065 | 862,000 | Buy Up |
| 14:55:34 | 0.065 | 8,000 | Buy Up |
| 14:49:04 | 0.065 | 1,500,000 | Buy Up |
| 14:46:00 | 0.060 | 925,000 | Buy Up |
| 14:43:29 | 0.060 | 75,000 | Sell Down |
| 14:31:41 | 0.060 | 18,000 | Buy Up |
| 14:31:32 | 0.060 | 20,000 | Buy Up |
| 14:27:52 | 0.060 | 1,000 | Buy Up |
| 14:27:47 | 0.060 | 60,000 | Buy Up |
| 14:26:59 | 0.060 | 75,000 | Buy Up |
| 14:26:50 | 0.060 | 1,000 | Buy Up |
| 14:25:17 | 0.060 | 125,000 | Sell Down |
| 14:19:17 | 0.060 | 30,000 | Sell Down |
| 14:10:22 | 0.060 | 600,000 | Buy Up |
| 14:08:54 | 0.060 | 50,000 | Buy Up |
| 14:03:05 | 0.060 | 100,000 | Buy Up |
| 14:00:57 | 0.060 | 70,000 | Buy Up |
| 14:00:25 | 0.060 | 5,000 | Buy Up |
| 13:59:01 | 0.060 | 150,000 | Sell Down |
| 12:21:05 | 0.060 | 50,000 | Buy Up |
| 12:17:42 | 0.060 | 200,000 | Buy Up |
| 12:08:24 | 0.060 | 60,000 | Buy Up |
| 11:37:21 | 0.060 | 50,000 | Buy Up |
| 11:25:45 | 0.060 | 40,000 | Buy Up |
| 11:20:57 | 0.060 | 80,000 | Buy Up |
| 11:07:45 | 0.060 | 100,000 | Buy Up |
| 10:45:15 | 0.060 | 100,000 | Buy Up |
| 10:44:30 | 0.060 | 50,000 | Buy Up |
| 10:44:12 | 0.060 | 30,000 | Buy Up |
| 10:43:57 | 0.060 | 40,000 | Buy Up |
| 10:41:14 | 0.060 | 100,000 | Buy Up |
| 10:25:34 | 0.060 | 60,000 | Buy Up |
| 10:22:18 | 0.060 | 10,000 | Buy Up |
| 10:12:37 | 0.060 | 200,000 | Buy Up |
| 10:11:13 | 0.060 | 50,000 | Buy Up |
| 10:03:35 | 0.060 | 5,000 | Buy Up |
| 10:01:39 | 0.060 | 100,000 | Buy Up |
| 10:01:26 | 0.060 | 100,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:58:52 | 0.060 | 50,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:53:18 | 0.060 | 20,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:53:02 | 0.060 | 200,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:52:18 | 0.060 | 100,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:47:54 | 0.060 | 5,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:47:09 | 0.060 | 15,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:47:09 | 0.060 | 50,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:46:51 | 0.060 | 400,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:46:43 | 0.060 | 50,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:45:31 | 0.060 | 1,000,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:42:16 | 0.060 | 200,000 | Buy Up |
| 08:59:00 | 0.060 | 180,000 |
Sell Down |
As can be seen there are many big buy ups today. Was it something brewing?
Definitely big buy ups today.
The current rally in coal prices may last until 2010, KGI Securities analyst Suttichai Kumworachai said in a report.
We all know that prices are erratic at pre-closing. Could be buy 0.065 sell 0.06. So somebody sold down at $0.065.
"Prices will stay strong for the next 6 months," Dileep Srivastava, head of investor relations at PT Bumi Resources said. "Global coal prices may climb to US$180 a ton this year," he said.
I mean 600lots instead of 650. Sorry for the typo.
How come 650lots buy ups is shown as sell down?
This one has potential. Good to buy some and keep since price is low.