Rotary Engg   

Rotary To Be The "Darling" In The Year Of The Pig!

Wow, this baby is beautiful. $1.00 is no sweat, just tighten the seat belts and ride the trend till the end. Vested.

Peace

 

Is Rotary moving again .....hopefully crossing the 1.00 mark??

 

ten4one...

You are right, man... :)

The market's ideas are so stale and dull, even when the bull is charging...

Always repeating  the same old antics...

 

Looks like The Market is short of ideas ...........maybe just some rotational plays. I think Mr Bear clearly is not done yet! Cheers!

 

I think Rotary is making a come back.. going up....

 

That is good for Rotary to consolidate and The Market is looking for new news for new 'plays'. Another words, all the previous good news have already been factored in by The Market and considering the current market environment, it is already doing well. Cheers!

 

Basically this counter is still in consolidation mode..so quiet..

Rotary

Last Retrieved on Fri, Mar 16, 2007 at 10:44:47 AM from server.

Weighted Avg Price:	0.8811	Last:	0.885
Spread/Price Ratio:	1.0000	Avg Trade Size:	18,812.5

Last Trade Vol BuyVol Mid SellVol 0.875 2 21 21 0 0 0.880 8 192 113 0 79 0.885 6 88 40 0 48 Total             16 301 174 0 127

 

ten4one,

thanks for the info.

 

shplayer, The Universal Term.contract ($557mn)was secured in Jan06(due tobe completed by end 07) of which $396mn has been completed and accounted for in FY06 reports. The total contract secured as at 31Dec06 is $833mn.

Briefly the share px movements:  It top on 5Feb04 at 76c and retreat to 42c on May04.Recovered and went upto 63c July04 then crashed to 33c Aug04 and moved upto 45c May05.On 09May06 hit 59c and corrected on jun06 to 45c. It was on the uptrend all the way and hit the height of $1.10 briefly on 26Feb07 and closed at  $1.07. The rest you know already! cheers!

Hopefully, this info could help in anyway in your tradings or investment strategy. It is only a very brief guide and it is not a BUY or SELL INDICATOR!

 

Sorry, ref my earlier post....meant.....'after they reported 1H 06 (not 05) result, the market....'.careless, careless!!!

 

I divested already......made about 120% gains in 5 months.....so thot better let others have a chance. But, actually, cos forward P/E was already >15X....taking bonus issue into account.

 

da gege, nice to see you too. yea, i'm watching rotary, primarily 'cos broker houses have been very bullish on it, but charts are not. so i want to see which one is right. haha. not vested and will likely not vest in this counter.

 

elfie,

nice to see you back...some forerunners have really missed you.

I was monitoring Rotary since 1st half 2005, when it was about 30+cts. When the market got wind of the Universal Terminal project, it quickly moved up to about 45cts range; when project was awarded (think 3Q 05?), price went up to 50+ cts range, after they reported 1H 05 result, the market noted the impact of the project, it moved to the 55 - 60 cts range... ...then the rest is history.

 

rotary's heavily advocated by brokerage houses... Note stock has been sold down since feb 26th tho. Also has a tendency for large swift drops. Run up actually started on nov 1st at 58c already.

Resistance abt 95c, support at 80.5c.

agree with musicwhiz abt avoiding stock market 'darlings'.

 

ten4one,

Just a minor point of clarification on your post of 8 March,

Rotary's price started its uptrend when market got news of the pending award of the $535 mil Universal Terminal (owned by Leong Hin) project. That was back in April/May 2005.

 

By Chong Wee Lee
Thurs 9 Mar 2007, 10:17 SGT

Summary: Rotary has seen its price retreating 12% to the current S$0.875 following the general market sell down since 28 February. We believe that this has presented investors with an opportunity to buy into Rotary?s prospects, which are likely to benefit from the expectation of strong news flow in 2007. Our fair value for Rotary is S$1.08, which implies a reasonable 15x FY07 PER. We reiterate our BUY rating on Rotary. Rotary is an established engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) player for small-mid sized contracts of US$2b Singapore Parallel Train project on Jurong Island at around mid-2007 and the subsequent award of contracts from this mega project, and 3) possible participation in Phase 2 development of Jurong Rock Cavern through its new joint venture with OKP Holdings.

Price has become more attractive after recent sell down. Rotary?s share price has retreated 12% to the current S$0.875 following the general market sell down since 28 February. This has presented investors with an opportunity to buy into Rotary's prospects, which are likely to benefit from the expectation of strong news flow in 2007. Our fair value for Rotary is S$1.08, which implies a reasonable 15x FY07 PER. Maintain BUY.

Expect more news flow from the Houdini Project. Rotary is an established engineering, procurement, and construction player for small-mid sized contracts of less than S$100m each, and has a historical 60-70% hit rate for contracts that it has tendered for on Jurong Island. Due to the tight construction time-line with expected completion by 2009/10, Rotary should be able to add on to the combined S$49m worth of piecemeal contracts that it has already carved out from the US$3b Bukom Shell Houdini project by mid-2007. Indeed, our recent conversation with management suggests that Rotary is still active in the tendering for these contracts.

Jurong Island may see the commitment of another mega project in mid-2007. Rotary's prospects on Jurong Island may receive further boost from ExxonMobil, which may decide on its Singapore Parallel Train (SPT) project on Jurong Island at around mid-2007. To meet competition from similar facilities in the Middle East and China that are targeted for completion at around 2010, the fate of this >US$2b petrochemical complex will affect ExxonMobil's future participation rate for fast rising demand in Asia Pacific. A nod from ExxonMobil for SPT will be a big boost to Rotary.

Participation in Phase 2 development of Jurong Rock Cavern? The Jurong Town Corporation is looking at the possibility of boosting the ongoing construction of the Phase 1 development for 1.47 million cubic meters of underground storage space for liquid hydrocarbons by a further 88%. Rotary's 45/55 joint venture with locally-listed OKP Holdings Ltd has the capability to bid for this Phase 2 project, in view of the huge civil engineering works involved in the construction of underground storage facilities. We believe that its chances of success for such a bid are reasonable, given OKP's track record in civil engineering works, and the diversion of competition to concurrent mega construction projects like integrated resorts and Business Financial Centre in Singapore over the next few years.

 

Hear! Hear! All fellows out there.

Welldone mw5 and the best advice I've seen so far!

As for me, I'll 'study'  the Cash Flows Statement and do a  projection for the next financial year with guidance from the Management's statement and expectations and take into accounts of the economical environments.

One advice - no matter how good a company is doing and if there is no interest in the Comapny from The Market, the share px will definitely suffer.

Rotary Engrg is a good example : It was doing fairly well since listed and its share px hardly moved (ard 40c-50c). Even at the beginning of the oil-boom period and the Jurong Island oil storage story hardly interest any Analyst. Years after years, the Company had been churning out good results and given out fairly good dividends and yet the share px only moved a few cents. The only break came was the Rights Issue cum special dividends annoucement (relating to Tax Credit). Of course, securing the Shell's contract did help!

Take a look at their secured contracts in-hand, you'll be able to roughly do a projection for the next FY. Cheers!

 

Please don't ask me to recommend whether to buy/sell. I always advocate independent thinking and analysis. Ask some basic questions:-



1) Is the company showing good growth and is this sustainable ?

2) Does it have a sustainable competitive advantage which can last more than several accounting periods ?

3) Is Management clear about its vision and strategies and is it open, honest and transparent in its dealings with shareholders ?

4) Are fundamentals already priced into the current price ? What is the company's P/E as compared to peers ? Does it deserve to be trading at a higher/lower P/E as compared to peers ?

5) Observe the company's NTA and ROE to get a feel of the growth prospects and returns for shareholders.

6) Study the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement to see if they are well-geared or over-leveraged, and also how they utilize and generate cash. A company with debtors turnover greater than creditors turnover is looking for trouble (for example). Also look at stock turnover if the company is actively involved in retail or trading activities.



Study other aspects of the company like newsflow, contracts, profit margins and read the annual report and MD&A.



Good luck ! Good research will always yield good results !

 

u mean your opinion to stay clear of this counter??

 

Looking at the title of the thread, I am always cautious when someone mentions "market darling". Former market darlings such as CAO, ACCS and even Bio-Treat have spectacularly fizzled out.



Somehow, when a company is under increased pressure to perform because it perceives the public is scrutinizing its every move, things tend to get more stressful and pressurizing for Management. In the case of CAO and ACCS, fraud was committed to jack up the inflated share price. I am not saying Rotary will be a victim of this, but the increased hype usually means too many people jump onto the bandwagon, thus erasing all possible gains from investing in a particular company.



I prefer low-key, steady companies with increasing earnings potential and good dividends over the years; those which are able to weather a storm such as the one we have seen the last few days.



Just my humble opinion. :)