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1921-1940 of 2099
Stocks stumble after sprint
Wall Street steps back on weakness in bank and tech shares as investors plead exhaustion after a four-week run.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 42 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index dipped 7 points, or 0.8%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) fell 15 points, or 0.9%.
Declines were steeper through the early afternoon, but stocks managed to cut losses late in the session.
The IBM-Sun breakdown dragged on techs Monday. But the weakness in financials was a bigger driver of the selloff after a prominent banking analyst downgraded the sector.
"If you haven't been following the bank stocks closely, you may have been lulled into a false sense of security," said Kim Caughey, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group. "This is reminding people that the banks still have a long way to go."
However, she said a modest pullback after a four-week run for the broad market was reasonable.
Stocks managed gains Friday, despite a brutal March jobs report, bringing the recent advance to four straight weeks.
Since hitting 12-year lows, stocks have been on a tear, with the Dow gaining 21% over four weeks. That was the blue-chip indicator's best four-week run since May 1933, when it gained 31%.
Stocks have been advancing on hopes that the economy and financial sector are closer to stabilizing thanks to some recent reports and the various government initiatives to staunch the slowdown.
This week, the focus turns to earnings, with Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) due to begin the reporting period after the close Tuesday. Alcoa is expected to have lost 57 cents per share, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. Alcoa earned 44 cents per share a year ago.
Also Tuesday, the consumer credit report from the Federal Reserve is due out at around 2:00 p.m. ET. Borrowing costs are expected to have fallen by 1.5% in February, according to a Briefing.com survey. Costs showed a surprise jump of 1.8% in January.
Deal in danger: IBM (IBM, Fortune 500)'s attempts to buy Sun Microsystems (JAVA, Fortune 500) fell apart Sunday after Sun rejected IBM's $7 billion offer, according to reports. Sun reportedly thought the asking price was too low. Analysts say the server maker is more likely to suffer the consequences of a failed deal than IBM.
Sun shares fell 22.7% and IBM shares fell less than 1%.
Banks: A variety of financial shares fell after an analyst said that the default rate on bank loans will exceed amounts seen during the Great Depression. Mike Mayo, of Calyon Securities, rated the overall banking sector "underperform" and initiated coverage on 11 major banks with either "underperform" or "sell" ratings.
Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) were among the companies initiated with "underperform" ratings.
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB, Fortune 500) and US Bancorp (USB, Fortune 500) were among the companies initiated with "sell" ratings.
The KBW Bank (BKX) index slipped 3.8%.
Autos: Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) cut its automotive debt by 38%, or $9.9 billion, Reuters reported, helping it strengthen its balance sheet amid a broad industry downturn. Ford shares gained 16%.
Ford has held up better than rivals General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) and Chrysler, which have both flirted with bankruptcy even as they have accepted billions in emergency federal aid. Chrysler is privately held.
Other movers: MGM Mirage (MGM, Fortune 500) rallied 19% on reports that its looking to sell two of its non-Las Vegas properties to raise cash. The casino company is looking to sell its MGM Grand Detroit and Beau Rivage in Mississippi in a deal that could be worth about $2 billion.
Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners nearly two to one on volume of 1.30 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers two to one on volume of 2.05 billion shares.
Bonds: Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.90% from 2.89% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.
Lending rates mostly dropped. The 3-month Libor rate held steady at 1.16%, unchanged from Friday, according to Bloomberg.com. The overnight Libor rate inched higher to 0.28% from 0.27% Friday. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.
Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets rallied and European markets fell.
In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.
U.S. light crude oil for May delivery fell $1.46 to settle at $51.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
COMEX gold for June delivery fell $24.50 to settle at $872.80 an ounce. 
Weekly Market Outlook
After 4 straight up weeks, the market is down this Monday morning ... remember however that the markets were down strongly last Monday morning yet rallied to end up on the week. Earnings reporting season begins this week with Alcoa and Chevron, but really kicks into gear starting next Tuesday, April 14th. Many are anticipating that the upcoming company quarterly earnings reports could be the catalyst for another market leg down -- keep in mind, however, that the bulls have largely been in control since the March 9th bottom and "don't fight the tape". The CBOE Volatility Index remains in its tight 40 to 45 range. The VIX actually barely closed below 40 on Friday, but is back over 42 this morning.
Last week we mentioned that the DJIA was pulling back to potential support at 7,500 and setting up a Percent R bullish re-test. That held true, as we bounced higher from there to the 8,000 area (see the following chart). Now 8,000 is holding as possible resistance, but we have strong support below around the 7,500 area (previous support & exponential moving average support) and Percent R is in Bullish mode following the recent successful re-test.
Dow Jones Industrials Daily Chart
(Continued Below)
Last week we mentioned the Weekly charts looked to be at a pivotal point for the major indices. That looks to have been resolved to the upside, with the NASDAQ particularly strong. The Weekly NASDAQ 100 (NDX) chart below shows we have broken above the recent downtrending range. Also Percent R and Efficiency Ratio have finally emerged from very low conditions, with Weekly Efficiency Ratio approaching a Bullish reading. There is potential resistance around 1,300 for the NDX, however -- upside targets above current levels are 1,400 and 1,500.
NDX Weekly Chart 
Stepping back further to the long-term Monthly chart, you can see the severe technical damage that has been done to indices such as the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the following chart. Holding support around 800 on the SPX will be key, and there certainly is upside potential to 900 and 1,000. Monthly Percent R is trying to push above the bearish 20 level -- it basically has hovered around or been below this level since May 2008, so a spike above this area would be significant.
SPX Monthly Chart
Bottom Line: Don't fight the charts, be flexible and don't anticipate a selloff before it happens ... while a downleg is certainly possible, the underlying trend over the past few weeks has been bullish. At this juncture, we may end up taking a pause after the strong rally over the past month, with the major indices settling into trading ranges. For example, on the S&P 500 Index a logical range would be 800 to 850 or a wider range of 775 to 900. Would a trading range or continued rally finally get the VIX to break 40 and stay below that level?
Trade Well This Week,
Price Headley,
BigTrends.com
1-800-244-8736
Stocks set for lower start
Futures turn lower despite rally in overseas markets. Sun Microsystems, IBM in focus.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks were set to open lower Monday, despite the wave of economic optimism that boosted markets around the world.
Less than two hours before the opening bell, the Dow Jones industrial average, Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were all pointing to a lower start.
Futures measure current index values against perceived future performance and offer an indication of how markets will open when trading begins in New York.
Investors have been buoyed by the recent rally in stocks. Major gauges have risen for four weeks straight, with the Dow surging 21.5%, its best four-week run since 1933, when it gained 31%.
But with no major economic indicators slated for release Monday, investors will be shifting their attention to the corporate front, including the latest quarterly numbers.
First-quarter results officially kick off this week with aluminum producer Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), which reports after the closing bell Tuesday.
"It is not about the actual quarter itself, but all eyes are on guidance going forward," said Ryan Larson, head of equity trading at Voyager Asset Management. "People are really looking to see if they are consistent with recent economic numbers."
In other corporate news, General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) chief Fritz Henderson said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press" that the beleaguered automaker was working to avoid bankruptcy, but warned that bankruptcy did remain a possibility.
And MGM Mirage (MGM, Fortune 500) is reportedly considering the sale of two of its most reliable casino operations in an effort to raise cash, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Deals: IBM's acquisition of Sun Microsystems is on the brink of collapse, according to published reports. The two companies have broken off talks after Sun (JAVA, Fortune 500) rejected an IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) offer of around $9.40 or below per share, the reports said.
World markets: Global shares rose Monday as investors rediscovered their appetite for risk. Asian markets soared, with the Hang Seng in Hong Kong rallying 3%. European shares also advanced in midday trading.
The dollar declined against the euro, but gained versus the yen.
Oil: Crude prices recovered following Friday's modest decline. U.S. crude for May delivery rose 12 cents to $52.63 a barrel.
Bulls face a challenging week
The Dow's best stretch since the 1930s could hit some resistance in a holiday-shortened week.
After hitting 12-year lows, the major gauges have risen for four weeks straight, with the Dow surging 21.5%, its best four-week run since 1933, when it gained 31%.
"I feel like we're setting up a real generational low, whether we've seen it or are near it," said said John Wilson, chief technical strategist at Morgan Keegan. "But I would expect the market to do some backing and filling over the next six to eight weeks as we get through the bad earnings."
How the stock market reacts to the financial results will be critical, he said. Dow component Alcoa announces results on Tuesday, but reports don't start pouring in earnest until later in the month.
This week is something of a pregnant pause for investors, with no first-tier economic reports on tap and trading limited to four days because of the holidays.
Passover is on Thursday, and many celebrations begin the night before. Although financial markets are open both Wednesday and Thursday, attendance could be lower. Attendance is expected to be especially light on Thursday, ahead of Good Friday, when all financial markets are closed.
April is typically a strong month on Wall Street except during bear markets. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, it has been the Dow's best month since 1950, for an average gain of 1.9%. But during bear markets, April tends to be a down month, according to the Almanac.
Tuesday: Consumer borrowing costs are expected to have fallen by 1.5% in February, according to a Briefing.com survey of economists. Costs showed a surprise jump of 1.8% in January. The consumer credit report from the Federal Reserve is due out at around 2:00 p.m. ET.
Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), as per usual, is the first Dow component to report quarterly results. The aluminum maker is expected to have lost 57 cents per share, according to analysts surveyed by First Call. Alcoa earned 44 cents per share in the same quarter a year ago. The report is due after the market close.
Wednesday: The February wholesale inventories report is due in the morning from the Commerce Department. Inventories are expected to have plunged for the sixth consecutive month, falling 0.6% after falling 0.7% in January.
The weekly crude inventories report from the Energy Information Administration is due in the morning.
Passover begins at sundown.
Thursday: March sales from the nation's retailers are due throughout the month. In February, sales at discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores helped sales overall to rise, following four straight months of declines. This month, investors will be looking to see if the consumer is continuing to hang in despite the recession.
The February trade balance from the Commerce Department is due in the morning. The trade gap is expected to have widened to $36.5 billion in the month from $36 billion in January, a six-year low.
Also on Thursday, the government releases the weekly jobless claims report and the March report on import and export prices.
Friday: All financial markets are closed for Good Friday.
Wall Street braces for jobs report
Slight advance seen ahead of key reading on employment. Global rally loses momentum.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks were pointed to slightly higher open Friday, hinting at a fourth consecutive advance, but holding onto the tentative gains depends on a key employment reading.
At 7:05 a.m. ET, Dow Jones industrial average, Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were higher, with a comparison to fair value suggesting a mild start for Wall Street. The futures pulled off earlier lows, but just barely.
Futures measure current index values against perceived future performance and give an indication of how markets may open when trading begins in New York.
Jobs: Investors will be watching the Labor Department's March jobs report, which is due out at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Employers are forecast to have slashed 658,000 jobs from their payrolls last month, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to 8.5% from 8.1% in February.
"If the payroll number comes in the same as expected, or better than expected, I assume it'll provide the catalyst for a rally," said David Jones, chief market strategist at IG Markets. "If the payrolls come in worse than expected, it'll bring people down to Earth, and we'll see the weakness return."
If the Dow Jones does rally and crosses the 8,000 mark, Jones said the market will face its "next big test" in trying to breach the 8,500 level that markets achieved in January.
Economy: Also on tap is a reading on the services sector in March. The Institute for Supply Management services report comes at 10 a.m. ET.
Stocks around the world have risen sharply this week amid growing optimism that the worst of the economic downturn is over. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all advanced about 3% Thursday.
Bernanke: At noon ET, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak about the Fed's balance sheet in Charlotte, N.C., at the annual Credit Market Symposium of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
G-20: The meeting of the leaders of the world's largest economies ended on a high note with President Obama pleased with a package worth more than $1 trillion to tackle the global economic crisis. (G-20 winners and losers)
World markets: The global stock rally lost some of its momentum. Asian stocks posted modest gains while major European markets were mixed.
Oil and money: Oil prices rose 59 cents a barrel to $53.23. The dollar rose versus the euro and the yen, but slipped against the British pound.