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Sembmarine

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krisluke
    17-Apr-2011 20:29  
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Ping An expects more rate hikes, helping boost earnings



(Reuters) - Ping An , the world's No. 2 insurer, expects interest rates and bank reserve ratios to be hiked at least once more this year, a move that may potentially benefit the company's earnings, a senior executive said on Wednesday.

Yields in the bond market in China have also reflected the possibility of more rate hikes, said Timothy Chan, chief executive of the asset management arm of Ping An , with over $100 billion in assets under management.

" We may have one more reserve requirement ratio hike or even an interest rate hike," Chan said. " For us, this is a good time to accumulate."

Insurance companies profit from the difference between their investment returns and their liability to customers, known as the spread. This spread typically widens when interest rates rise because it leads to higher bond yields, which attract investments from many firms in the sector.

China has raised interest rates twice so far this year as it intensifies its fight against stubbornly high inflation and tries to cool its red-hot real estate sector.

Chan was speaking before an event to launch a yuan-denominated fund in Hong Kong, which the company said is seeking to raise up to 600 million yuan ($91 million) to invest in the nascent " dim sum" bond market.

Ping An will also likely keep its asset allocation strategy this year largely similar to 2010 as it eyes better returns from rising bond yields, with about 80 percent of its assets in fixed income tools.

The company is also looking to banking and consumption stocks to invest in the equities market in China, and is especially interested in companies that offer high dividend yields of more than 4 percent, Chan said.

" In traditional life insurance policies, the liability period is usually over 20 years, which means we must invest in long-term paper," he said. " For P& C products, the liability is shorter and so we can invest more in equities."

Ping An, which has a network of over 400,000 insurance agents and is partly owned by HSBC , has previously said it wants to become a financial conglomerate in the likes of Citigroup. (Reporting by Kelvin Soh Editing by Ken Wills)
 
 
krisluke
    17-Apr-2011 20:25  
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Brian Jackson, an emerging-markets strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong, talks about China’s decision to increase bank reserve ratios by a half point from April 21. 

The move, taking the requirement to 20.5 percent for the nation’s biggest lenders, came less than two weeks after the central bank boosted benchmark interest rates.

Gross domestic product rose 9.7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier and inflation accelerated to 5.4 percent, the most since July 2008, the statistics bureau said April 15.

“Beijing did not take long to respond to the strong inflation number on Friday. Governor Zhou (Xiaochuan) also struck a hawkish tone in comments made over the weekend, so this move comes as no surprise.

‘‘We revised up our forecast for policy rates in response to the inflation data, and now expect another increase in the benchmark lending rate this quarter, in addition to the one we were already forecasting for later in the year. Today’s move suggest that another increase in interest rates is on the way soon.’’
 
 
krisluke
    17-Apr-2011 20:18  
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krisluke
    17-Apr-2011 20:14  
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Any attending the AGM for sembmar here ? I hear say keppelcorp is on 21 april 2011...

few questions can be discussed during AGM

1) Key performance indicator (KPI) to determine director compensation.

2) Growth.

3)Investment EQ and IQ
 
 
krisluke
    17-Apr-2011 20:09  
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I'm sure that equity will plunge due to tightening monetary policy by singapore, china and korea.

But this tightening reflect growth. Sembmar is similiar to trade foreign exchange. It view oil price to determine the possibilities for more contract won.

Oil price only can only helps you to certain extend when trading sembmar. Now, the big picture is back on china again. Think that if china raise interest on monday... Then i would say that my prediction of $5.56 may be materialised. Apart from this would spread to keppelcorp and other stocks as well like commodities play and properties.

Only beneficial would be transport. eg sbs bus and smrt which i'm in long term bearish.

Perhaps for aggresive investor may look for opportunities at $5.68... or my entry at $5.56...

 

james87      ( Date: 17-Apr-2011 11:18) Posted:

Anyone thinks that it will revisit 5.5+ before the ex div date? Intend to buy for the dividend..just looking for a right entry price.

 
 
krisluke
    17-Apr-2011 20:00  
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Weekend Comment April 15: Inflation worries
THE STRENGTH OF the advance GDP estimates released yesterday took the market by surprise. GDP for the first quarter of the year rose 23.5% q-o-q (on a seasonally-adjusted basis) and 8.5% y-o-y. The key upside surprise was manufacturing, which rose a record 80.2% q-o-q and 13.9% y-o-y.
 
Deutsche Bank believes the production surge may reflect a build-up of inventories. Indeed, OCBC notes in a recent report that non-oil domestic exports and industrial production from January to February have been relatively tepid. “Moreover, the February-March global leading indicators in the form of the North America semiconductor book-to-bill ratio and Singapore’s manufacturing and electronics Purchasing Managers Indices were also more subdued, reflecting more cautious sentiment on the part of manufacturers,” OCBC says.
 
Even so, Deutsche Bank believes there could be upside to its already above-consensus 6% GDP growth forecast for the year. Analysts are generally in agreement that this year’s GDP growth will exceed the government’s forecast of 4% to 6%.
 
Such strong growth raises again the concerns of inflation, and the impact that will have on markets. DBS economist Irvin Seah expects that full-year inflation will probably breach the central bank’s target range of 3% to 4%. “We expect full year inflation to average 4.2%. That is, inflation is still the focus despite the short-term growth concerns,” Seah says. The Monetary Authority of Singapore yesterday announced it would continue to tighten monetary policy in order to curb inflation.
 
Near-term strength in the Singapore dollar should benefit the transportation sector, says Deutsche Bank in a recent note. The largest cost for transportation companies is often fuel, which is priced in US dollars. Conglomerates, on the other hand, will lose out because a lot of their revenue comes from outside Singapore. However, Deutsche Bank remains positive on conglomerates like Sembcorp Industries and Sembcorp Marine because it believes a surge in order books will more than offset the impact of a stronger SGD.
 
DMG & Partners Research analyst Leng Seng Choon sees the SGD strength leading to weaker loan growth for the local banks as their overseas assets will be translated to SGD at less favourable rates. “As DBS Group Holdings has a larger percentage share of loans in USD and HKD, its overseas loan growth could be more subdued,” Leng says.
 
A stronger SGD will also mean a soft Singapore interbank offered rate (Sibor), which Leng says will lend support to the prices of REITs and dividend yield plays. Among DMG’s preferred REIT picks are CDL Hospitality Trusts and Suntec REIT.
 
Meanwhile, Credit Suisse has conducted an analysis of the impact of higher inflation and cost pressures on the earnings of local companies. “Our analysis has turned up more losers than winners given the general lack of resource names here,” the brokerage says in an April 14 report. Companies with high material or wage costs, low margins and limited pricing power to pass through incremental costs are most impacted.
 
Big losers include Hong Leong Asia, Amtek Engineering, SATS, Neptune Orient Lines and Wilmar International. Hong Leong Asia’s construction business is expected to be hit by higher material costs and lower margins. The same is likely to be true for Amtek, which manufactures electrical and electronic components and products, Credit Suisse says. Meanwhile, NOL will suffer from rising fuel prices while Wilmar and SATS, which deal in consumer staples, are expected to be sensitive to a rise in soft commodity prices. Selling prices of Wilmar’s cooking oil in China are capped, which means Wilmar will find it difficult to pass on price increases. The consumer product division accounts for 10% of its profits, according to Credit Suisse.
 
Those most affected by rising wages are SATS, ST Engineering, ComfortDelGro and Raffles Medical, Credit Suisse calculates. Beneficiaries of inflation include Midas, which should be able to pass on higher costs through cost-plus contracts, DBS, Straits Asia Resources, Yongnam and Genting Singapore. Credit Suisse expects interest rates to rise from here, and therefore sees Genting and DBS as possible beneficiaries. “Genting is expected to be in a net cash position for end FY2011. As such, they are a potential beneficiary of higher interest rates,” Credit Suisse says. “Also, as there are only two integrated resorts in Singapore and both are proving highly popular with local and foreign visitors, we believe there is ample room for Genting to pass on any potential wage rate inflation via higher prices.”
 

 
krisluke
    17-Apr-2011 19:57  
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The edge singapore has recently conducted an impressive write out on inflation worries. Think they mention my long time love for oil related sembmar... So i decided to post my internet scanning here.

Do enjoy and trade happily. Smiley
 
 
james87
    17-Apr-2011 11:18  
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Anyone thinks that it will revisit 5.5+ before the ex div date? Intend to buy for the dividend..just looking for a right entry price.
 
 
lowchia
    17-Apr-2011 01:03  
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On Friday, Sembmar re-test the support at $5.76 and closed at $5.78 with HIGH volume of 6.2 million shares traded.

A black candle stick with short lower shadow indicates investor are selling this stock down without any hesitant.

Both RSI & MACD are bearish as RSI trend downwards.

Important Resistance of Sembmar: $5.90

Immediate Support of Sembmar: $5.76

Currently prices are supported by 20 days MA at $5.76.

Investor have been ........... READ MORE

 


 
 
krisluke
    15-Apr-2011 22:00  
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yup. In order to trade happily  and spending almost less than 1 minute  per day with the global market, there is a in betwen value from $5.76 - $5.56 which is $5.68.

I alredi factor in almost all the nosense nosense thingy for example

1) dividend payday will plunge 31 cents to in line with the pay out

2) Oil tahan by libya unrest and japan may depend on oil than nuclear source of energy

3) Interest rate hike by inflation fear nation (highly possible)

Interested investor may look at $5.68 for some buy for a short swing opportunity

I would buy some if $5.56 /  $5.47  materialise becos i missed the boat at $5.30 (many directors bot in price... i think....)

*** there is a gap below $5.56... For those hardcore investor buy in.Smiley



 

eplepl      ( Date: 15-Apr-2011 08:48) Posted:

5.56 yes.... good buy !

krisluke      ( Date: 14-Apr-2011 21:00) Posted:



some thingy to bear in mind and heart.

just watch  $5.76 support tmr... If not, can consider to buy some at $5.56  Smiley

Resistance at $5.86 for more upside...

my view Smiley



 

 
krisluke
    15-Apr-2011 21:46  
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After the dividends will be First Quarter 2011 earning report...
 
 
krisluke
    15-Apr-2011 21:37  
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ads

Happy Trading  always  Smiley

http://charts.mrswing.com/

 
 
krisluke
    15-Apr-2011 21:34  
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The CEO and Chairman of sembmar is buying up the shares...

2011-04-14 2011-04-14 SEMBCORP MARINE LTD Wong Weng Sun Director Buy Exercise of Share Options/Convertibles 708750 ---
2 2011-04-14 2011-04-14 SEMBCORP MARINE LTD Goh Geok Ling Director Buy Exercise of Share Options/Convertibles 106000 2.38
 
 
krisluke
    15-Apr-2011 19:54  
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The $5.58/6 is based on my fibo calculation. Let's Huat together
 
 
limkt009
    15-Apr-2011 16:09  
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Maybe it could go higher, why think it could go lower.

eplepl      ( Date: 15-Apr-2011 14:08) Posted:

why waste so much money when it could be lower //////

Juzztrade      ( Date: 15-Apr-2011 13:05) Posted:



Feel very tempted to buy leh


4 lot (4000 x $5.80 = $23,200.00)

Can collect $1,240.00 in divided.




 

 
james87
    15-Apr-2011 15:49  
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Hopefully oil price can come down to drag this counter down..so that can accumulate some for the attractive dividends....
 
 
eplepl
    15-Apr-2011 14:08  
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why waste so much money when it could be lower //////

Juzztrade      ( Date: 15-Apr-2011 13:05) Posted:



Feel very tempted to buy leh


4 lot (4000 x $5.80 = $23,200.00)

Can collect $1,240.00 in divided.



 
 
Juzztrade
    15-Apr-2011 13:05  
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Feel very tempted to buy leh


4 lot (4000 x $5.80 = $23,200.00)

Can collect $1,240.00 in divided.


 
 
leolim818
    15-Apr-2011 12:50  
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sorry, should be 31 cents

leolim818      ( Date: 15-Apr-2011 12:49) Posted:

so as long as we hold it before XD, we still entitle for the 32 cents right?

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 15-Apr-2011 12:22) Posted:

Yup. More than 5% at today's price. Not bad huh ? 


 
 
leolim818
    15-Apr-2011 12:49  
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so as long as we hold it before XD, we still entitle for the 32 cents right?

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 15-Apr-2011 12:22) Posted:

Yup. More than 5% at today's price. Not bad huh ? 

sureesh40      ( Date: 15-Apr-2011 10:48) Posted:



Yes. It means they will give a total dividend of 31 cents per share, 6cents ordinary and 31 cents special. Special dividend is because they make good profits this year