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I don't trust research report, as there is always no justification for their claim.
Eg. OSK price target to be $0.75(Jan till now, last year september is 0.50 price target), the reason given is optimistic in the industries, and more contract should be clinched. But look at their forcast the revenue does not increase much but the net income increase significantly, there is no justification why the profit margin can be significantly increase without the revenue improve.
But look at current share price it is already double compare to last year, but their forcast revenue increase is only 5% for 2013 and 2014 compare to current year is 11% increase, but their current price target is almost triple the price last year low price (last year is almost double). Current share price is already trading at 128 times the P/E for 2012. Even their forcast of profit margin comes true, they are expecting the stock to be trading 187 times P/E for 2012 and at 47 times P/E for 2013(forcast) and 34 times P/E for 2014(forcast). This P/E is consider extremely high.
| 2014 Forcast | 2013 Forcast | 31/12/12 | 31/12/11 | 31/12/10 | 31/12/09 | 31/12/08 | 31/12/07 | 31/12/06 | |
| CNY(m) | CNY(m) | CNY(m) | CNY(m) | CNY(m) | CNY(m) | CNY(m) | CNY(m) | CNY(m) | |
| Total Revenue | 968 | 917 | 869.51 | 1,080.74 | 1,052.41 | 762.2 | 701.96 | 713.44 | 532.36 |
| Net Income | 131 | 91 | 25.613 | 187.36 | 246.02 | 190.77 | 166.05 | 162.17 | 129.92 |
| Diluted Normalized EPS RMB | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| Profit Margin | 13.53% | 9.92% | 2.95% | 17.34% | 23.38% | 25.03% | 23.66% | 22.73% | 24.40% |
And those report seems to be too optimistic with the railway reforms. Which they mention the reforms will increase the rolling out of the railway project. Currently the building of the railway is clasified under the corporate portion and not the government portion. It is possible that new project will be roll out faster, but the money come from the shareholder. For corporate they need to answer to the shareholder, thus they will need to ensure the tendering price to be as low as possible, thus this will further push down the profit margin of the contract and clinched the contract does not means good things if the profit margin are diminishing. As risk of lossing money will be increase.
Lifeisgreat ( Date: 14-Mar-2013 14:03) Posted:
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hmmmm...would the recent research reports from CIMB, Kim Eng, OCBC, OSK and UOBKH help?
Maybe you can enlighten me where is the potential, as currently I still have not find any reason for such raise from 20 over cents to 50 over cents which is already double. The financial report showing is diminish earning seems like profit margin have been squeeze to the thinest for the last few years, and also current contract award also show thin margins, if a contract award and the company is lossing money, that will be worst then getting the contract. Current price is a below the 50days support, thus it is most likely in the long terms down trend.
wesely2k ( Date: 14-Mar-2013 09:57) Posted:
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说 得 好 ！ 太 棒 了 ！ 加 油 ！
wesely2k ( Date: 14-Mar-2013 09:57) Posted:
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" It is wise to hold what you know(Midas潜 力 股 ） and admit what you don't know（ 就 是 不 知 道 何 时 才 飙 升 ） ."
We can also say: " It is wise to have what is good and avoid what is not good."
And Midas is an example of what is still good to have.
We can also say: " It is wise to have what is good and avoid what is not good."
And Midas is an example of what is still good to have.
Blanchard ( Date: 13-Mar-2013 17:54) Posted:
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TP $0.60 is for 12 month is that right?
哈 哈 ！ 我 知 你 不 知 ！ ： ） ）
wesely2k ( Date: 13-Mar-2013 17:05) Posted:
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" It is wise to hold what you know and admit what you don't know."
We can also say: " It is wise to have what is good and avoid what is not good."
And Midas is an example of what is still good to have.
The five contracts totalling Rmb109.6m that Midas has just announced are small but significant wins as they reflect Midas’s ability to sustain
its order book with metro contracts. The majority came from its associate NPRT, in line with our prediction in August 2012.
The outlook for China’s railway industry is also becoming more favourable given an increase in planned railway FAI. The proposed reform of the Ministry of Railwayshould help alleviate financing woes in the industry. Midas’s recent price weakness following its 4Q12 results provides a good entry point. Maintain Outperform and target price based on 17.3x CY14 EPS, a 10% discount to the 5-year average forward P/E.
CIMB
This is the correct one!
知 之 为 知 之 ， 不 知 为 不 知 ， 是 知 也 。
Meaning: It is wise to hold what you know and admit what you don't know.
wesely2k ( Date: 13-Mar-2013 17:07) Posted:
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乃 孔 子 徒 弟 也 ！ ： ） ）
wesely2k ( Date: 13-Mar-2013 17:07) Posted:
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知 知 为 知 知 ， 不 知 为 不 知 ， 是 知 也 ！
wesely2k ( Date: 13-Mar-2013 17:05) Posted:
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知 知 为 知 知 ， 不 知 为 不 止 ， 是 知 也 ！
骇 人 听 闻 ， 寒 毛 卓 竖 ！
wesely2k ( Date: 13-Mar-2013 16:25) Posted:
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0.60 passengers still sleeping soundly. ZzzzzzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzzzZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
暴 风 雨 来 临 的 征 兆 ！ ！ ！
GorgeousOng ( Date: 13-Mar-2013 16:20) Posted:
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一 会 乌 天 黑 ， 一 会 出 太 阳
wesely2k ( Date: 13-Mar-2013 16:12) Posted:
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the most at 0.515 at the closing......什 麽 鸟 天 气 ？ 还 出 太 阳 ？
I love singlish especially when you in ah moh country!!! They hear until kong kong!!! Hahaaa!!!:)))
vw2796 ( Date: 13-Mar-2013 13:56) Posted:
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My friend juz SMS me dat he shorts sell 50 lots Midas @ 0.505 b4 lunch.
He die liao...
('',)
Oredi told u all...
Indeed got many pple shorts sell.
But who were buying???