Investors are eager for the 2.15 pm decision on interest rates. Analysts believe that the Fed is most likely to once again leave the overnight rate unchanged at 5.25%, so the focus will be on the statement that accompanies the rates decision.
i m glad to hear that sullvian is sharing the same view as me that the bull is still ard. it kind of assure me that my view is the same as the experienced ppl.
yupz currently only 30% in stocks.. will add more as it seem the data is getting better
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Groundbreaking on new homes rebounded by 9% in February after a 14% decline in January, but less volatile building permits declined by 2.5%, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.
Housing starts were up 9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.525 million in February from a revised 10-year low of 1.399 million in January, beating the expectations for a smaller increase to 1.46 million. Starts are down 28.5% compared with February 2006. Read the full government report.
Building permits, which are not as affected by weather, fell 2.5% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.532 million from 1.571 million in January. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected permits to be roughly unchanged.
Permits are down 28.6% compared with February 2006.
The government's housing data are subject to large sampling and other statistical errors. It can take five months for a new trend in housing starts to emerge from the data.
In the past five months, housing starts have averaged 1.52 million annualized, down from 1.56 million in the five months ending in January and 2.12 million in February 2006.
Economists also warn that data on housing starts are very sensitive to local weather conditions, especially in the winter months.
By illustration, starts jumped 26% in the West and 18% in the South, offsetting declines of 30% in the Northeast and 14% in the Midwest.
In much of the nation, the weather turned cold and wet in the second half of January and into February after a very mild November and December.
In February, permits fell 26% in the Northeast and 18% in the Midwest. They rose 9% in the West and 3% in the South.
The data are not likely to have much impact on the deliberations at the Federal Reserve later Tuesday and Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep its overnight interest rate target steady at 5.25%. The last time, the committee noted some "tentative" signs of stabilization in the troubled housing market, but since then, bad subprime mortgages have surfaced, upsetting investor sentiment. See our full Fed coverage.
Completions of new homes fell 9.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.66 million, an indication that builders are ramping down their inventories. It's the lowest number of completions since August 2003. It takes about 6 months for a home to go from groundbreaking to completion.
There were 1.2 million homes under construction in January, down 15% from the previous February.
Starts of single-family homes increased 10.3% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.22 million. Permits for single-family homes dropped 3.1% to 1.09 million annualized.
In all of 2006, 1.80 million homes were started, down from 2.07 million in 2005.
The National Association of Home Builders reported on Monday that its survey of builder sentiment fell in March for the first time since September. See full story.
PETER BRIMELOW Why Sullivan isn't worried Commentary: Chartist editor says bull market's still alive and well
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Mar 19, 2007
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- It's official: The Chartist's Dan Sullivan isn't worried about the stock market. That interests me for three reasons. First, Sullivan has been one of the top-performing investment letters over the two-decades-plus that he's been monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest. Second, Sullivan was one of the handful of editors who were around at the bottom of the last great bear market in 1974 and thus might be expected to know what a bear-market bottom looks like. (In fact, Sullivan thinks one occurred in 2002). Third, Sullivan is the opposite of being a stopped clock he is a worrier. I last chronicled his worrying in detail when the stock market hiccupped in the summer of 2006. His worrying worked well. See Sept. 8, 2006 column But now he's not worried at all. In his most recent letter, dated March 15, Sullivan wrote: "The bull market that began back in early October 2002 is alive and well. Since the 10/02 lows, the benchmark S&P 500 has traced out a pattern of ascending tops and bottoms. We are now in the throes of the fifth pullback of this bull market. It should be noted that our models remained positive during the previous four pullbacks, which saw the S&P 500 on an intraday basis decline 8.82%, 7.57%, 6.24%, and 8.10% respectively. On each and every occasion the S&P 500 held well above the previous low and went on to record bull market highs." Sullivan acknowledged there could be further deterioration., but not much: "As we see it, the worst-case scenario would be continued erosion down to long-term support which is in evidence around last May's highs in the S&P 500 at 1,325, which is about 5% below current levels. This area, which is about 5% below current levels, formerly represented overhead resistance and having been penetrated, now becomes a support area. There is a similar pattern in the DJIA currently at 12,162 which is 4.2% above its May bull market highs at 11,670." But Sullivan doesn't expect this. He thinks March 14, when the Dow lost 136 points before recovering to finish ahead 57, was a "key reversal day," and that the storm has passed. Why is Sullivan so sanguine? His "models" are proprietary indicators they are presumably extrapolations from his stock-picking method, a variant of relative strength, sometimes summarized as "Buy high, sell higher." But he also offers a number of rationales. One is that, although Sullivan acknowledges the subprime mortgage market is "a very real concern," he also says flatly that it's getting "too much attention." Nice to know. Another Sullivan rationale: Recent market volatility has to be put in perspective. He writes: "Although volatility has returned, it is nowhere near the levels of 2000. We activate our hotlines whenever the market as measured by the Dow rises or falls 1% or more. Back at that time, we were doing hotlines almost on a daily basis." Prior to March 13's 242-point down Dow, he writes, "there had not been a single-day decline greater than 2% in over 980 trading sessions." And he adds that "on a point basis, it was the seventh-largest one-day decline in the history of the Dow. But on a percentage basis, it doesn't even qualify in the top 250 worst performances. Since 1950, it would rank as the 37th biggest single-day flop." Sullivan also prints a list of the top 10 worst single-day percentage declines in the Dow since 1950. He concludes: "As you can see the stock market recovered nicely with every period producing gains 60, 90 and 120 days after the drop." Sullivan's Actual Cash Account portfolio is currently 95% invested.
I ahd read before that the Dow Jones transport stock index is more accurate gauge of the economic of USA. Is the Dow Jones transport stock index up or down trend ? Anyone can supply the info.?
Victorian's posting :Got worried earlier when Dow up 50 pts but Dow Jones transports down 15 pts. The only index that was red. Now DJ up 100pts, DJT up 20pts. Let's up both key index is up. WIll show the strength of the Primary bull thrend.
May be victorian can highlight on this (DJ transport index trend) more.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rallied Monday, lifting the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 100 points, as a boost from Asian and European markets overnight and a flurry of merger news -- including talk of a big merger between two European banks -- helped investors set aside recent concerns about the subprime mortgage market.
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