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Sweet, Allgreen start moving up! Based on Average TP$1.50, Allgreen still have 23% upside.
CIMB TP $1.50
UOB TP $1.75
DBS TP $1.39
OCBC TP $1.38
Average TP $1.50
All green possible cup and handle formation?
Chart at:
http://www.sharejunction.com/sharejunction/openNewChart.htm?symbol=S68
Strategy - uobkayhian
24 August 2009
Key Highlights Of Teleconference With Las Vegas Sands
We had a teleconference with Las Vegas Sands on its subsidiary Marina Bay Sands
(MBS), one of the Singapore’s two integrated resorts (IR) currently under
construction.
Opening in mid-February, potential visitorship of 14m-15m in first year. MBS
targets opening in mid-Feb 10 and is anticipating a visitorship of 14m-15m in the first
year. Investors remain skeptical on the impact of Singapore’s IRs, but the man in the
street believes otherwise, judging from the astounding residential property sales over
the last three months (with Singaporeans forming the bulk of the buyers). This
suggests that the stock market possibly has not fully recognised the benefits of the IRs.
Stock Picks
IR operators. We prefer Genting (GENT MK/BUY/RM7.60) over Genting
Singapore (GENS SP/HOLD/S$0.95) given the former’s cheaper valuations. We also
recommend investors to look for better values in indirect plays to the IRs which
include the following sectors.
Property stocks. The IRs were the major catalysts of the last property boom in 2005-
07, creating buzz for Singapore's transformation into a top global city in which to live,
work and play. We see the property sector as the largest IR play by market
capitalisation. Our top stock picks are Ho Bee Investment (HOBEE SP/Target:
S$1.65), City Developments (CIT SP/BUY/S$12.70), Allgreen Properties (AG
SP/BUY/S$1.75) and Wing Tai Holdings (WINGT SP/BUY/S$2.55).
Tourist arrival recovery plays. We forecast tourist arrivals to rebound 20% in 2010
after a 12% contraction in 2009. MBS and Resorts World@Sentosa will require
external room supply to support their businesses. CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDREIT
SP/BUY/S$1.55) is among our top 10 stock picks for 2H09. As the opening of the
IRs looms close, we expect investor interest to shift to other hotel stocks such as
Amara Holdings (AMA SP/NOT RATED), Fragrance Group (FRAG SP/NOT
RATED) and Hotel Properties (HPL SP/NOT RATED).
Media. A recovery in advertising spending from the multiplier effect of the IRs on
the property and services sectors will be positive for Singapore Press Holdings (SPH
SP/BUY/Target: S$4.40).
Other services. Transport plays will also benefit. We prefer non-airline stocks such
as SMRT Corporation (MRT SP/BUY/S$2.00), ComfortDelgro (CD SP/BUY/S$1.85)
and Singapore Airport Terminal Services (SATS SP/NOT RATED).
Nancy Wei
(65) 6539 8480
nancy.wei@uobkayhian.com
Property counter...go cheong Yanlord....Singapore government may implement measures to prevent local property market overheat....China only starting to rise from the grave after recent sell down..
28 August 2009
Allgreen Properties Ltd S$1.21 Target: S$1.50
Source: Company, CIMB-GK Research, Bloomberg
Insights from company visit
Mkt.Cap: S$1,924m/US$1,335m
Property Devt & Invt
Valuation and recommendation:
Raising RNAV estimate and target price; maintain Outperform.
We raise our ASP assumptions for Allgreen’s Singapore and China projects, based on the latest guidance.
In particular, our China ASPs have been raised from Rmb10,000psm to Rmb12,000-14,000psm, to reflect
optimism on China properties. Our estimates are still 10-15% below guidance.
Our FY09-11 core EPS estimates have been raised by 8-30% as a result. We raise our end-CY10 RNAV
estimate and target price (parity to RNAV) from S$1.38 to S$1.50 to factor in the above, offset by lower
capital values for Allgreen’s investment properties.
While the stock is up 134% YTD, we believe positive take-up of planned launches in 2H09 could lift its
valuations further.
Allgreen is best positioned to capitalise on rising sentiment for mass-mid-tier properties, in our view, given
its large inventory in this segment.
Maintain Outperform.
28 August 2009
Allgreen Properties Ltd S$1.21 Target: S$1.50
Source: Company, CIMB-GK Research, Bloomberg
Insights from company visit
Mkt.Cap: S$1,924m/US$1,335m
Property Devt & Invt
Valuation and recommendation:
Raising RNAV estimate and target price; maintain Outperform.
We raise our ASP assumptions for Allgreens Singapore and China projects, based on the latest guidance.
In particular, our China ASPs have been raised from Rmb10,000psm to Rmb12,000-14,000psm, to reflect
optimism on China properties. Our estimates are still 10-15% below guidance.
Our FY09-11 core EPS estimates have been raised by 8-30% as a result. We raise our end-CY10 RNAV
estimate and target price (parity to RNAV) from S$1.38 to S$1.50 to factor in the above, offset by lower
capital values for Allgreens investment properties.
While the stock is up 134% YTD, we believe positive take-up of planned launches in 2H09 could lift its
valuations further.
Allgreen is best positioned to capitalise on rising sentiment for mass-mid-tier properties, in our view, given
its large inventory in this segment.
Maintain Outperform.
Allgreen Properties: BUY ; TP: S$1.39; AG SP
Geared To Go
· Recent meeting with Allgreen management cements our
positive view on company
· Management comfortable with gearing ratio of 0.65x,
which gives it c.S$500m of debt headroom
· Four launch-ready projects in mid-tier segment
· Top mid-cap pick; Reiterate BUY, TP of S$1.39
All Ready To Go.
We met Allgreen management recently and
came away assured that it remains in a good position to take
advantage of current momentum in the mid-tier segment,
given its enviable number of launch-ready projects. Net gearing
remains low at 0.46x and management indicated it would be
comfortable gearing up to 0.65x. Based on its 2Q09 balance
sheet, it provides debt headroom of c. S$500m for any
potential acquisitions. Its participation in the Chestnut Ave
tender shows it is not averse to supplementing its landbank.
Visibility Improving.
While FY09F earnings from its
development properties segment will largely be underpinned
by revenue recognition from Cairnhill Residences (TOP end-09),
Cascadia and Pavilion Park, recent success at One Devonshire
and VIVA will provide earnings visibility going into FY10F and
FY11F. Potential launches in the pipeline will also contribute, as
will its share from JV projects in China, which we believe could
boost earnings from late FY10 onwards.
BUY, TP S$1.39.
With four launch-ready projects in various
locations, we believe Allgreen is poised to capitalise on
buoyant sentiment in the mid-tier segment and realize its fair
value. Any success in subsequent mass-market land tenders
will likely be RNAV-accretive and provide a further catalyst for
the stock. Allgreen remains our top mid-cap pick, with a TP of
S$1.39.
DBS Group Research . Equity 24 August 2009
Sweet :) Allgreen has breakout 12 days EMA today!
Breakout from key resistance suggest further upside:
Positive breakout.
Allgreen Properties is likely to reach higher after breaking out
of the flag pattern and above the key supportturned-
resistance level of $1.09 on heavy volume.
Upside momentum intact.
With the RSI trending higher towards the overbought region
and the MACD indicator signaling a strong bullish crossover
recently, these seem to suggest strength in the current upside momentum.
Target price at S1.33-$1.38.
Should the breakout materialize, we expect the target price at
around $1.33-$1.38 (also happen to be a key support-turned-resistance level).
Subsequently, we see the next resistance at $1.66 (peak in Dec ‘07).
Initial support at $1.09.
Beyond the immediate support at $1.09, the subsequent supports are
pegged at $0.87 (Jul ’09 low), followed by $0.63 (key resistance-turned-support level).
http://www.ocbcresearch.com/pdf_reports/technical/Technical%20Analysis%20-%20Allgreen%20-%20090724.pdf
A commentary at the date of this announcement of the significant trends and competitive conditions of the industry in
which the group operates and any known factors or events that may affect the group in the next reporting period and the
next 12 months.
April/May 2009 witnessed the beginning of an improvement in buying sentiment as buyers responded positively to
favourable pricing by developers in new launches and relaunches. 4700 units were transacted in 2Q 2009 vs 2600 in
1Q 2009, together exceeding the 4264 units transacted for the whole of 2008.
Allgreen benefitted from this improvement with more units sold in various developments in 2Q 2009 vs 1Q 2009. We
also took the opportunity to launch One Devonshire in June 2009 with 148 units out of 152 sold to-date. On 3 August
2009, we relaunched the 235 units condominium, Viva, at Suffolk Walk, with 162 units sold todate.
With the increased property sales and barring unforeseen circumstances and excluding fair value adjustments, Allgreen
is expected to have an improved 2H 2009 over 2H 2008.
UIC is a better bet. There could be another takeover attempt.
ronleech ( Date: 25-Aug-2009 16:56) Posted:
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Watch out, it is coming again.....
Allgreen Properties' Q2 net profit up 36.2% to S$23.4m
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SINGAPORE : Singapore Exchange's mainboard-listed
Allgreen Properties on Wednesday said its second-quarter net profit rose 36.2
per cent to S$23.4 million from a year earlier.
This comes as the
developer's revenue rose and operating expenses fell in the three months to
June.
Turnover increased 14 per cent to S$84.6 million due to higher
revenue from development properties.
Allgreen said it has benefited from
the improving buying sentiment in the second quarter as it sold more units in
various developments.
It launched One Devonshire in June and it has so
far sold 148 units out of a total of 152 units.
The developer also
relaunched the 235-unit condominium Viva at Suffolk Walk earlier this month and
it said 162 units have been sold to date.
Looking ahead, with the
increased property sales, it expects the performance in the second half to be
better than that of a year ago.
To date, SAR is my best ,outperform the rest, thank chiongwee, who always post on SAR thread.
I did follow since 98c,and in out several time, make many $$$.look like chiong wee call of $2 for SAR coming tomorrow for sure, those who laugh at him, now got no $$$, cheongwee happy still cannot talk liao loh. thanks for des burger ,cheong.
petertan4949 ( Date: 23-Jul-2009 23:48) Posted:
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sold all 1080, now on longcheer, armstrong, qianhu,tiongwoon, SAR..
dealer0168 ( Date: 23-Jul-2009 23:11) Posted:
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Now at $1.20, u bi-tang liao.......cheers.
But $1.20 quite high already. What yr TP to sell this one, or going to keep long?
petertan4949 ( Date: 23-Jul-2009 17:54) Posted:
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i was thinking all this while it was done within the day, that's y i ask, hope dont mind.
becos it may look odd, when sold at 975 and next buy back at 970.
iPunter ( Date: 23-Jul-2009 18:05) Posted:
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i got 30 lots, because i am stubborn, when i make up my mind, i will not chase if not got even more lots, initial want to have 100, but 30 got thro queue.
going forward if the market got no surprise till end aug.i think we are in for good time,
but i would not stay beyond that.
I am just a small speculator.....when it hitted 0.975, there seems to have some correction...after that it went to .96 later see again the vol and buying patten still got upside trend lor....then buy again....
My shifu told me, in share market, when money is not in your bank, it is still not your money cos things might change anytime. Cash out then go in again if you feel it will go up further, at least money already in your bank......
hey ronleech, forget the first post, i just want to kaypoh why u sold 97.5 and buy back at 97.0 within the day?
petertan4949 ( Date: 23-Jul-2009 17:21) Posted:
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