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Midas

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iPunter
    16-Mar-2013 11:25  
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He's probably an accountant by profession... lol...Smiley

Lifeisgreat      ( Date: 16-Mar-2013 11:18) Posted:

cheongsl, just wonder if you are vested in this counter?

 
 
Lifeisgreat
    16-Mar-2013 11:18  
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cheongsl, just wonder if you are vested in this counter?
 
 
cheongsl
    16-Mar-2013 09:45  
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The company total revenue for FY 2012 95.4% come from aluminium extrusion, out of this 95.4% more then 55% come from the transportation industries.

Have roughly go through the past contract for transportation, and compare to the recent awarded. It seems that the profit margin have significantly reduce in the china market, this might indicated that the aluminium fabrication industries in China is  now too competitive. Only 2 project which have lower price per car, both come from oversea, seems like they have dived for this two in order to get into the market. Thus it is expected that the net income to continue to go lower with lower profit margin, and currently classified this counter as risky. Thus it is advisable to avoid this counter for long term fundamental  investor. As PE is extremely overvalue, all the positive reporting without fundamental  supporting  suggest BB are offloading their shares to individual, and invite individual to push up the share price for their offload.  It might shrink  alot once this offload is done, as they will start removing their support.

  Contract (RMB in million) No of car RMB per Car
Wuxi Metro Line 2 27 138 $195,652
Dongguan Rapid Railway R2 Line 22.7 120 $189,167
Nanjing-Gaochun Intercity Rail 17.6 90 $195,556
Hangzhou Metro Line 2 31.7 162 $195,679
Wuhan Metro Line project 10.6 56 $189,286
11-Jul-12
Nanjing Metro Line 3 project. 74.6 276 $270,290
21-May-12
Ningbo Metro Line 1 project 33.7 132 $255,303
Nanjing Metro Line 10 project. 28.5 126 $226,190
27-Dec-11
São Paulo Expresso Tiradentes project 59.4 371 $160,108
Shanghai Metro Line 13 44.8 144 $311,111
Zhengzhou Metro Line 38 150 $253,333
10-Aug-11
Kunming Metro project 33 120 $275,000
Guangzhou Metro Lines 1, 2 and 8 62 192 $322,917
5-Jan-10
Downtown line 38.7 219 $176,712
Shenzhen line 4 21.9 96 $228,125


 

 
 

 
ongahhuat888
    15-Mar-2013 16:01  
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Pls respect her!!!
 
 
wesely2k
    15-Mar-2013 15:42  
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Bo Kan Buay Tua Han......still sleeping.

GorgeousOng      ( Date: 15-Mar-2013 11:35) Posted:

Ayiok! Dont disturb her! Let her sleeps well than later " uh lat" to chiong!!!

wesely2k      ( Date: 15-Mar-2013 11:21) Posted:

Bo Jalan.........Kun ah...!!!!


 
 
cheongsl
    15-Mar-2013 12:29  
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The no. of stock that I focus on is reduce significantly as compare when I first join the stock market, 5~6stocks currently, unlike previously I also don't focus and just base on research report, financial report, sometime just plug and play without even thinking of how true all this. But now find something interesting will try to study and analyse will only enter if feel ok, and exit when technical or fundamental change, sometime all the analysis turn out to be useless, like this one maybe will turn out to be one, as currently still don't seems to have anything interesting.

As for making money, I can say that currently is making money, I believe future also the same if I continue to do my own decision and analysis. Any mistake make during the path of all this analysis contributed to my learning curve and help me to be more aware of the unknow.

Hope that you will also make good money from the stock market.

akchua      ( Date: 15-Mar-2013 11:47) Posted:



I am FA also but a lazy one. Usually check the financial/company report, local and global business outlook, government direction etc. But seldom scrutinized projects until such details. Too many reports to read.


You are very diligent, hope you make good money from stock market. You deserve it.


cheongsl      ( Date: 15-Mar-2013 07:37) Posted:

I always do my own homework on the evaluation and analysis. I was attrach by the heat of this counter, but currently can't find reason for entering , it takes time to understand a company and its performance. Might continue for some period, if still can't find any fundamental reason for such increase will leave this counter, and approach another counter for evaluation and analysis


 

 
wesely2k
    15-Mar-2013 11:53  
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Alamak...is 0.225.Heeee

 

wesely2k      ( Date: 15-Mar-2013 11:52) Posted:



TP 0.70 - BP 0.475 P = 0.275, Huat Ah.................

 
 
wesely2k
    15-Mar-2013 11:52  
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TP 0.70 - BP 0.475 P = 0.275, Huat Ah.................
 
 
akchua
    15-Mar-2013 11:47  
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I am FA also but a lazy one. Usually check the financial/company report, local and global business outlook, government direction etc. But seldom scrutinized projects until such details. Too many reports to read.


You are very diligent, hope you make good money from stock market. You deserve it.


cheongsl      ( Date: 15-Mar-2013 07:37) Posted:

I always do my own homework on the evaluation and analysis. I was attrach by the heat of this counter, but currently can't find reason for entering , it takes time to understand a company and its performance. Might continue for some period, if still can't find any fundamental reason for such increase will leave this counter, and approach another counter for evaluation and analysis.

akchua      ( Date: 13-Mar-2013 08:34) Posted:



wow, you go into such details.

Usually people sell on news and current market condition is not very good. I think Midas will be range bounded instead of surging.




 
 
GorgeousOng
    15-Mar-2013 11:35  
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Ayiok! Dont disturb her! Let her sleeps well than later " uh lat" to chiong!!!

wesely2k      ( Date: 15-Mar-2013 11:21) Posted:

Bo Jalan.........Kun ah...!!!!

 

 
wesely2k
    15-Mar-2013 11:21  
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Bo Jalan.........Kun ah...!!!!
 
 
ballball
    15-Mar-2013 08:12  
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One way ticket??

SJ-Stomp      ( Date: 15-Mar-2013 08:09) Posted:

现 在 你 们 才 开 始 对 这 hot n sexy baby 有 兴 趣 了 ! 不 迟 不 迟 还 有 一 点 时 间 让 你 们 上 车 買 票 !

 
 
SJ-Stomp
    15-Mar-2013 08:09  
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现 在 你 们 才 开 始 对 这 hot n sexy baby 有 兴 趣 了 ! 不 迟 不 迟 还 有 一 点 时 间 让 你 们 上 车 買 票 !
 
 
Bopanha
    15-Mar-2013 08:04  
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Wait for 61 cents, maybe we can rethink whether Midas should move forward or backwards.   Hehehe.
 
 
shareflux
    15-Mar-2013 08:00  
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CHEONG, thanks for that illuminating piece on Midas. The run up in the stock price without corresponding increase is indeed a cause for concern. PE in the range of 100 reminds me of the irrational exuberance of the dot com days. Never expect to see a company with such high valuation in the manufacturing sector in a transparent market where corporate information is so readily available. It is time for investors to re-evaluate their position and pay more attention to the fundamental of their holding.
 

 
Bopanha
    15-Mar-2013 07:59  
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Sifu is right. Long when the price is low, sell and maybe short extra when the price is high.   But really, no one can really tell the " when" exactly. Profit taking is no sin.   In fact it boosts the well being of the trader. Lol..

iPunter      ( Date: 15-Mar-2013 07:48) Posted:



When the time is right, longists must become shortists...

    There's really no point for anyone to remain a 'holdist' all the time...

          Thus, to benefit from the game, one must first master the art of longing...

                Which must entail selling at some point  in order to gain from the game.


Bopanha      ( Date: 15-Mar-2013 07:41) Posted:

Inside a no way out circuit for shortists, he probably has to wait for two years to cover positions at a " small" loss. Huat for longists. Lol..


 
 
iPunter
    15-Mar-2013 07:48  
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When the time is right, longists must become shortists...

    There's really no point for anyone to remain a 'holdist' all the time...

          Thus, to benefit from the game, one must first master the art of longing...

                Which must entail selling at some point  in order to gain from the game.


Bopanha      ( Date: 15-Mar-2013 07:41) Posted:

Inside a no way out circuit for shortists, he probably has to wait for two years to cover positions at a " small" loss. Huat for longists. Lol..

 
 
Bopanha
    15-Mar-2013 07:41  
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Inside a no way out circuit for shortists, he probably has to wait for two years to cover positions at a " small" loss. Huat for longists. Lol..
 
 
guoyanyunyan
    15-Mar-2013 07:40  
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... lets see can Midas overcome the resistance $0.530 created by gap down window on 22 Feb? ...
 
 
cheongsl
    15-Mar-2013 07:37  
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I always do my own homework on the evaluation and analysis. I was attrach by the heat of this counter, but currently can't find reason for entering , it takes time to understand a company and its performance. Might continue for some period, if still can't find any fundamental reason for such increase will leave this counter, and approach another counter for evaluation and analysis.

akchua      ( Date: 13-Mar-2013 08:34) Posted:



wow, you go into such details.

Usually people sell on news and current market condition is not very good. I think Midas will be range bounded instead of surging.




cheongsl      ( Date: 13-Mar-2013 07:37) Posted:



This is hard to say as the benefit from the JV contract is less then 5% and the awarded price don't seems attractive. MRT weights around 100tonnes when empty, thus will be approximately 16tonnes per car, but current aluminium prices base on the contract sum only allow around 15 tonnes. If the aluminium price goes up in the next two year midas might run into red. Unless the price continue to be same or go below, or they hedge the price, but hedging will also have hedging cost, die tooling etc is also currently not consider yet.

  Total Contract sum 109.6 % of the contract train sets car per train Total Car Price per car USD per car tonne of aluminium allow
Wuxi Metro Line 2 668 27 4.04% 23 6 138 0.195652 31430.07 15.71503
Dongguan Rapid Railway R2 Line 526.9 22.7 4.31% 20 6 120 0.189167 30388.22 15.19411
Nanjing-Gaochun Intercity Rail 588 17.6 2.99% 15 6 90 0.195556 31414.55 15.70727
Hangzhou Metro Line 2 756 31.7 4.19% 27 6 162 0.195679 31434.38 15.71719
Wuhan Metro Line project   10.6   14 4 56 0.189286 30407.34 15.20367


 
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