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Quite true. The problem now is that there is no confidence. Also, market is forward looking. In other words, the data we used are somehow slightly lagging as market anticipated future events.
Chart show down with high volume! I think can wait for long termers. For those who want to punt, never know, market is irrational.
zujzuj ( Date: 25-Oct-2008 16:16) Posted:
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Some main points from the latest Q report on this company
1) The Group is virtually debt free and the balance sheet is strong. The outstanding net order book of $13.0 billion with deliveries into 2012 are expected to keep our yards busy
2) Moreover we have already received a total of 50% payment for all KOM’s existing contracts. Our orderbook is robust and well-diversified, comprising national oil companies such as Petrobras and PetroVietnam and large oil services companies
3) Our gearing is budgeted to reach 20% at year end 2008. Net gearing of 0.03X. Free cash flow of S$1,462 million.
4) EPS for the 9 months to date is 52.4cents
What is the price difference in a month ?
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume | Adj Close |
| 10/23/2008 | 4.07 | 4.23 | 3.84 | 4 | 14083000 | 4 |
| 10/22/2008 | 4.65 | 4.7 | 4.16 | 4.17 | 19916000 | 4.17 |
| 10/21/2008 | 4.8 | 4.97 | 4.73 | 4.82 | 14458000 | 4.82 |
| 10/20/2008 | 4.9 | 4.96 | 4.51 | 4.65 | 23503000 | 4.65 |
| 10/17/2008 | 5.4 | 5.44 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 14696000 | 4.9 |
| 10/16/2008 | 5.45 | 5.45 | 5.18 | 5.27 | 17588000 | 5.27 |
| 10/15/2008 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.49 | 5.73 | 12090000 | 5.73 |
| 10/14/2008 | 6.26 | 6.52 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 16001000 | 6.1 |
| 10/13/2008 | 5.85 | 6.08 | 5.47 | 5.96 | 17387000 | 5.96 |
| 10/10/2008 | 5.4 | 5.46 | 5.21 | 5.42 | 14070000 | 5.42 |
| 10/9/2008 | 5.38 | 6.13 | 5.3 | 6.08 | 16712000 | 6.08 |
| 10/8/2008 | 5.92 | 5.97 | 5.26 | 5.28 | 17552000 | 5.28 |
| 10/7/2008 | 6.12 | 6.39 | 6.11 | 6.15 | 16870000 | 6.15 |
| 10/6/2008 | 6.84 | 6.86 | 6.37 | 6.4 | 11559000 | 6.4 |
| 10/3/2008 | 7.56 | 7.56 | 6.98 | 7.04 | 16810000 | 7.04 |
| 10/2/2008 | 7.95 | 8.18 | 7.61 | 7.72 | 6980000 | 7.72 |
| 9/30/2008 | 7.61 | 7.85 | 7.55 | 7.85 | 10851000 | 7.85 |
| 9/29/2008 | 8.24 | 8.34 | 7.96 | 7.97 | 4570000 | 7.97 |
| 9/26/2008 | 8.52 | 8.52 | 8.14 | 8.23 | 4342000 | 8.23 |
| 9/25/2008 | 8.59 | 8.59 | 8.42 | 8.49 | 3591000 | 8.49 |
| 9/24/2008 | 8.66 | 8.8 | 8.56 | 8.62 | 3636000 | 8.62 |
| 9/23/2008 | 8.74 | 8.81 | 8.62 | 8.65 | 3436000 | 8.65 |
Collapse of government link blue chip probably will be the most significant and clear signal that market capitulation is getting closer. KepCorp is one of it.
http://investsgx.blogspot.com/
However, in long and drag bear market, any wrong assumption of market bottom means your cash is strapped for many years.
Therefore, only invest with money which we can spare for at least 5 years!
Kim Eng target price is $6.72 and CIMB is $5.40. Keppel NTA is $2.86 with a free cash flow of $1,462 million. In the unlikely scenario of the price to fall to $1.00 guess many of us would not be able to afford it then. We will be more worried about settling about our house and car loans. I will wait for 50 cents. Ha Ha.
kep corp drop to around $1 and sti drop to around 800 are posssible. So be patient now and dream to be rich in next 5yrs. This is a golden opportunity for us. Think positivity.
I will wait for 50 cents. Ha Ha.
nickyng ( Date: 24-Oct-2008 18:34) Posted:
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$2 ?? well....i thk i will wait till $1....dunno when....but quite likely..hee :D
A solid Company in terms of experience, capabilities and excellent management.
Will wait till foreign funds are washed out by redemptions of this counter before considering to buy. KIV - orders cancellations due financial credit crunch, reduce future orders ??
I will definitely buy when it reaches $2. It was $14 a few months ago! Unbelievable!
My personal finance blog
Fear prevails..... nothing is impossible
kate_laker ( Date: 24-Oct-2008 14:45) Posted:
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I'll be happy to grab some if $2
Is it possible it will come down to 2?
Vol is still <30m. From max chart, vol went to 30-40m during '98 and '02 crisis.
u r right, uncle.
at current market atmh, can't guess the bottom line.
I thk Kepcorp will bottom between $3 to $4, exactly where is anybody's guess.
It's almost impossible to predict the bottom unless you are extremely lucky. My strategy is to start buying in this counter moderately now and with every fall of $1.
hmm, do not take analyst comment as a sure bet. Find a way to have your own assessment.
Some analyst some time ago predict Citi bank to outperform, that was when Citi share was at peak around 50-55 USD. After a while Citi share crashed. It is now about USD 13.2
One famous analyst in Wall street made recommendation about some high growth ( i remember like 20%) for Lehman Brothers around June-july 2008. Today Lehman disappeared and caused a lot of people huge financial lost across the world.
so, dont get confused by them. Have fun reading their report, but find a way that suit your personality for investment.
In the october issue of 'smart investor', page 41, there was an article on offshore oil sector. In the article, UBS said that while they expect oil prices to continue to normalise, it is expected to be high enough to justify deepwater drilling. The swiss bank also reckons that keppel's valuation are 'most compelling' and it has a 12 month price target of $13.35 for the stock.
Many mixed signals on keppel corp in the market!!! Some say buy some say sell. I very confused leh.
My personal finance blog