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Stagflation In Extremis And The Explosive Rise Of Gold
measured in hyper-inflated US dollar could easily surpass the previously estimated $10,000-$12,000 range. Read More
Dollar Index Headed For Rapid Collapse - Chart
There is a very low probability the U.S. dollar will resume its uptrend. The move below the value of the uptrend line an... Read More
Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 9/18/2012
By Geoffrey VarnerSeptember 18, 2012OVERNIGHT PROFIT TAKING FOR THE EURO
After a four month euro rally, Tuesday saw some profit-taking and the euro fell against the dollar. Spain’s seeming reluctance to seek a bailout isn’t sitting well with investors either. Derek Halpenny, head of FX research in London, said “If Spain steps forward (to ask for a bailout) and all of us get some clarity it would remove an element of uncertainty.” While in a television interview, Spain’s Deputy Prime Minister admitted they were still considering the conditions of a possible bailout.
The other side of the euro coin is that German investor confidence rose for the first time in five months. The rise is in response to the European Central Bank’s plan to buy government bonds. Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London, said of ECB President Mario Draghi, “Draghi may have saved Germany.”
Gold, which tracks closely to the euro, came off a recent six month high. Similar to the euro, it succumbed to overnight profit-taking. Without any new news today, it wouldn’t be surprising to see investors jump back in.
At 9 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,764.60, Down $5.00.
- Silver, $34.44, Up $0.06.
Gold Support Begins below 1750
Daily Bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Gold has reached the long cited 1755 objective and may be in for several sessions of much needed consolidation. A return to the Fed low at 1715 could (depending on what path price takes to get there) present an opportunity to buy the dip against 1645. As mentioned last week, “the huge volume and large range is consistent with the beginning of some consolidation before the continuation of the advance.”
LEVELS: 1715 1737 1747 1791 1800 1825
Gold Market Update - Clive Maund
value of fiat lower and lower, the most obvious beneficiaries being gold and silver. Read More
Silver Market Update - Clive Maund
this uptrend has a target at the top channel return line shown, which means it should get to over $60 on this advance, Read More
Closing Gold & Silver Market Report, 9/17/2012
By Brandi BrundidgeSeptember 17, 2012GOLD’S VALUE INCREASES BY 13% IN 2012 BULGARIA REJECTS ADOPTION OF EURO
Precious Metals moved slightly down for the day, taking a break from last week’s driving force of the announcement of QE3 that will aid the American economy. The past four weeks grabbed the market’s attention of how Gold is thought of as a safe haven with a rise of over 9 percent. Silver showed an increase of 23 percent. Julian Jessop at Capital Economics said, “The price for the Precious Metal should benefit further from talk of unlimited money printing. But we do not think that is essential for it to reach new highs. Our forecasts place more weight on a revival of safe haven demand as the eurozone crisis flares up again.”
European Union memberships are declared once new members meet specific criteria, at which point they are able to join the single currency. This was once thought of as a positive and proud moment for nations, but with Europe still dealing with its financial woes, the process has become more of negative. For instance, the newest EU state to become fully integrated into the euro is Bulgaria, which recently announced it has indefinitely frozen plans to adopt the currency. Gemma Godfrey at Brooks MacDonald said, “Bulgaria's move to delay joining the euro is a slap in the face for the region, because the reasons for the delay not only highlight the current turmoil in the region but forecast that the political wrangling will only increase.”
At 5 p.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,762.40, Down $9.30.
- Silver, $34.24, Down $0.43.
All Signs Pointing To Gold
U.S. monetary base and growing gold value, as money supply has risen, so has the price of gold.Read More
Silver Price Forecast - Is Silver Fast On Its Way To $50?
given the above analysis, it stands to reason that $100 (twice the 1980 high of $50) silver could be virtually guarantee... Read More
Mid-Day Gold & Silver Market Report – 9/17/2012
By Ted PrinceSeptember 17, 2012ANALYST SAYS ALL SIGNS POINT TO HIGHER METALS PRICES
The four-session win streak by the Dow Jones Industrial Average came to an end today with concerns over the eurozone and shrinking manufacturing reports in the New York area. This dip comes after theDow reached its highest level since December 10, 2007 following the Fed’s announcement of QE3 last week. News about contracting manufacturing activity in New York comes for the second straight month with reports showing the lowest figures in 3 ½ years. Information regarding the output of factories in New York State has traditionally been a good indicator of general manufacturing conditions throughout the rest of the U.S.
Gold and silver prices remain steady on the day as precious metals markets take a breather after realizing several back-to-back sessions of gains. " The market has to consolidate the gains it has made since the end of August. That has been already a significant move upwards for the various precious metals, so if we do not see $1,800 (in gold) this week, that would not be a problem as, nevertheless, the signs are that precious metals prices are moving higher," Peter Fertig, a consultant for Quantitative Commodity Research, said. The 13.2 percent rise in gold price in 2012 puts the metal on pace for its eleventh straight year of gains. With gold historically acting as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement, analysts see today’s flat trading prices as temporary with the long-term trend for gold pointing northward.
At 1 p.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,770.80, Down $0.90.
- Silver, $34.49, Down $0.18.
Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 9/17/2012
By Peter LaTonaSeptember 17, 2012GOLD & SILVER PRICES HOLD NEAR SEVEN MONTH HIGH
Gold & Silver prices are holding on to recent gains in early morning trading. Last week, Gold and Silver were up for the fourth week in a row. Gold prices have risen 13.2 percent so far in 2012. According to Peter Fertig, a consultant for Quantitative Commodity Research, “if we do not see $1,800 this week, that would not be a problem as, nevertheless, the signs are that Precious Metals are moving higher" .”
Stocks in the European market are falling today, as once again their leaders fail to act on Greece or Spain. Markets had received a boost on the European Central Bank’s bond buying announcement, as well as the Federal Reserve QE3 announcement last week. Investors are frustrated because it would appear that instead of taking advantage of this “breathing space”, European finance ministers are in even less of a hurry to tackle critical issues. These policy makers decided to wait on three urgent issues: a bailout for Spain, a decision on Greece’s request for a two-year extension on bailout terms and a common supervisor for European banks.
At 9 a.m. (EDT), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:
- Gold, $1,771.70, Up $0.10.
- Silver, $34.63, Down $0.04.
Last Updated : 17 September 2012 at 12:15 IST
Gold is extremely bullish, target $1791, 1803: Barclays
Source :Commodity Online
Gold looks technically poised to target $1791 and subsequently $1803 on stimulus measures that could stoke inflation and make gold investments more attractive.
LONDON (Commodity Online): Gold breached $1750 an ounce as the much awaited catalyst helped make the precious market buoyant wiht physically backed gold exchange traded fund (ETP) holdings hitting another record high, according to a report by Barclays Capital.
Importantly alongside the investor-led rally, physical demand has also picked up significantly in India and China with buying into the recent rally, indicating growing expectations of higher prices.
Price forecast: Q3 12: $1665/oz 2012 annual average: $1672/oz
Gold ETP holdings made fresh new highs this week, adding 15.8 tonnes over the past week and reached 2517.3 tonnes by Friday. Monthly flow so far has reached 27 tonnes taking YTD inflow to 143 tonnes. The pick up in longer-term “sticky” interest alongside the move up in prices lends support to gold extending its gains.
The most recent CFTC data showed gold’s non-commercial positions climbed to the highest since February of this year. Net speculative length added 11.6 klots with long positions gaining 9.5 klots, while short positions fell by 2.1 klots. Net speculative length as a percentage of open interests has climbed to 40%.
Physical demand in China is also showing considerable signs of improvement. Shanghai Gold Exchange trading volume rose by more than 30% on the week on Friday and reached the highest level since mid-August surpassing the annual and monthly daily average. China’s July gold imports from Hong Kong reached 75.84 tonnes, almost 50% higher y/y.
Technically, trends are indicative of a extremely bullish gold and Barclays expects trend to continue towards targets of $1791 and $1803. Support 1741, 1723, resistance 1791,1803. Closing above $1803 can push gold higher to record levels of $1922.
Gold hovers near highest in almost 7 months after Fed
* Gold still eyes $1,785-$1,796-technicals * Physical market notes selling as prices rise * Coming Up: Euro zone Eurostat trade for July 0900 GMT By Lewa Pardomuan
SINGAPORE, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Gold firmed on Monday, holding near an almost seven-month high, as the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest stimulus move to spur the economy led to a rush for bullion -- a traditional hedge against inflation.
Gold, which has risen for the last four weeks, could breach this year's peak around $1,790 an ounce as the United States prints more money to buy assets, driving up the outlook for inflation and weighing on the dollar.
Gold added $4.03 an ounce to $1,773.49 by 0621 GMT after rising as high as $1,777.51 on Friday, its highest since late February when it hit this year's peak. Gold rallied to a record around $1,920 in September last year.
" Gold is still pretty bullish this week. I think gold prices will remain firm and probably test the high set in February," Lynette Tan, an analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.
" Buyers are still buying gold, but it seems that profit taking may occur later."
Reuters poll showed the Fed will buy a total of $600 billion of bonds under its new stimulus program, known as quantitative easing or QE3, and will look for a U.S. unemployment rate of 7 percent before it halts the programme.
" We believe the macroeconomic environment for gold is turning more constructive. While flow into physically backed gold ETF stalled earlier this year, the purchase of gold by central banks accelerated," Deutsche Bank said in a report.
" We expect that the growth in supply of fiat currencies are an important driver, the low interest rate environment is likely to continue to enhance gold's attractiveness given the negligible opportunity cost."
Fiat currencies are government-issued and their value is based on the issuer's guarantee to pay the face amount on demand.
U.S. gold for December rose $3.20 to $1,775.90 an ounce as the dollar languished near a seven-month trough versus a basket of major currencies.
The dollar index stood at 78.802, having fallen as far as 78.601 on Friday, a level unseen since late February. It has shed some 6 percent from a two-year high of 84.100 in July. A softer dollar makes commodities priced in the greenback cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Silver tracked gold higher and held near its strongest since March. Platinum was near multi-month highs even after Anglo American Platinum said it will resume work this week at its strike-hit Rustenburg operations.
Higher prices spurred selling in the physical sector, but bullion was likely to find support at around $1,750 an ounce, dealers said.
" We've seen some selling, but it's not heavy. We saw early selling from the Middle East this morning, but Thailand and Indonesia are a bit quiet," said a dealer in Singapore.
" Premiums are still at 20 to 40 cents. You can't go cheaper than this because the premiums are already low. But we expect more selling this week. Thailand may be selling more gold scraps."
In main consumer India, demand picked up last week as jewellers and investors scaled up purchases before prices rose further during the festive season, which peaks in November with Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights.
In other markets, MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan crept up 0.3 percent, having reached its highest level since early May earlier in the session, while Brent crude rose for the eighth consecutive session to just below $117 a barrel.
World War III - The Unthinkable Cost Of Preserving The Petrodollar
So who is it that pulls the strings? Obviously, those who have the power to print the dollar out of thin air have the mo... Read More
Last Updated : 15 September 2012 at 18:35 IST
Gold is turning more bullish on macroeconomic environment: Deutsche Bank
Gold market will remain reasonably well supported, however, there may be some selling pressure once the market has digested the news and as it looks towards the next catalyst, which could come from China in our view
NEW YORK (Commodity Online): Some selling could set into bold after a bounce following more Federal Reserve easing, but nevertheless remains upbeat about the longer term, said Deutsche Bank in a commodity snippet.
While there were expectations for more quantitative easing, the Fed action Thursday modestly exceeded these.
“We expect that the gold market will remain reasonably well supported, however, there may be some selling pressure once the market has digested the news and as it looks towards the next catalyst, which could come from China in our view,” the German bank noted.
So far, China has been more restrained than expected in announcing more stimulus, but they looks for the country to follow the Fed’s lead.
“Overall, we believe that the macroeconomic environment for gold is turning more positive and the gold market will continue to respond positively to further central bank activity,” the bank said.
“We believe that the growth in supply of fiat currencies such as the USD (and dollar-linked currencies such as RMB) are an important key driver, followed by concerns regarding inflation and inflation volatility which could follow,” the continued.
“Furthermore we believe that the low-interest rate environment is likely to continue to enhance gold’s attractiveness given the negligible opportunity cost and longer-term fears regarding adequate stores of value and value/wealth preservation,” Deutsche Bank concluded.
Gold posts second day of gains after Fed stimulus
* Bullion's four-week rally first since January
* Gold could see resistance at major highs $1,790, 1,802
* S.African mine labor strife adds support to platinum
* Coming up: U.S. New York State manufacturing index Monday
By Frank Tang
NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Gold edged up on Friday,
extending the previous session's 2 percent rally to hit a
six-month high after the U.S. Federal Reserve unleashed another
round of bullion-friendly stimulus.
Platinum group metals gained sharply on supply worries due to unrest among South African miners and a better demand outlook a day after the Fed pledged to pump $40 billion monthly into the U.S. economy until it saw a sustained upturn in the jobs market.
Investors looking to gold as a traditional inflation hedge against monetary stimulus by central banks around the world pushed bullion up for a fourth straight week for the first time since January.
" For gold prices to have extended gains even further, without the usual 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' pullback, is impressive," said James Steel, metals analyst at HSBC.
Steel said that gold's rally is likely to be sustained by the open-ended nature of the Fed's latest bond-buying program.
Spot gold was up 0.2 percent to $1,770.20 an ounce by 3:04 p.m. (1904 GMT) after climbing to an intraday high of $1,777.51, its loftiest since Feb. 29.
U.S. COMEX gold futures for December delivery settled up 60 cents at $1,772.70 an ounce, with trading volume higher than average for a second straight day, preliminary Reuters data showed.
Sentiment in COMEX gold options was positive for a second
straight day, and funds have been buying gold call options and
other bullish plays throughout the session, said COMEX gold
options floor trader Jonathan Jossen.
OUTLOOK MIXED
Analysts differed on whether gold could keep up the blistering rally.
" When multiple major central banks are coordinating their effort in printing more money and engaging in stimulus measures, that has to be overtly bullish for gold," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital.
The European Central Bank has unveiled an aggressive plan to tackle the three-year old euro zone debt crisis, while China's Premier Wen Jiabao said this week the government could utilize a massive fiscal stability fund to boost growth.
UBS gold strategist Edel Tully said that gold is due to encounter stiff resistance at an area between $1,790 and $1,803, the metal's highs from February and November.
Reuters data shows asset performance has tended to diminish
with each new round of quantitative easing, or QE, from the Fed,
and that it sometimes takes as long as a year for the effects of
Fed action to kick in.
Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.2
percent at $34.58 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.7 percent
to $1,705.25, while palladium was up 1.5 percent at
$693.97 an ounce.
Platinum posted an 8 percent rise on the week, its biggest weekly gain since last October, due to supply fears caused by mine labor unrest in South Africa, which is estimated to own 80 percent of the world's platinum reserves.
Saturday, September 15th 11:29 AM IST
Vietnam central bank to inject more Gold into market
The State Bank of Vietnam said the Saigon Jewelry Company began to recast deformed gold bars on August 25 and plans to issue a total of 48,000 taels (1.8 tons) of gold onto the market by early next month.
Saturday, September 15th 10:37 AM IST
Gold gains 1.9 percent for the week
On Friday, gold for December delivery rose 60 cents to settle at $1,772.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest in nearly seven months.
NEW YORK(BullionStreet): Gold closed the week nearly two percent up, taking advantage of US Fed decision on stimulus measures.
For the week, the precious yellow metal closed up 1.9 percent for the week.
On Friday, gold for December delivery rose 60 cents to settle at $1,772.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest in nearly seven months.
Analysts said gold continued to benefit a day after Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke unleashed a program to buy $40 bln of assets per month until the U.S. economy shows clear signs of recovery.
The central bank extended the ultra low federal funds rate through at least mid-2015 and said it will keep " Operation Twist" in place.
This policy consists of swapping short-dated securities for longer-term securities, as well as reinvesting the proceeds of maturing securities, so the central bank will be adding $85 billion of long-term securities each month through the end of the year.