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Prepare for risk of double-dip recession

Yes I do agree with you too oct might be a tricky month. But still cannot cfm. it depends on how the market move now.. 

cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:39) Posted: u are right, but that may be too early...i thk still got a month..but if got profit..time to take some and reduce exposure...u are right on mostly.. .i generally agree with you... risktaker      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:28) Posted: If you PM next time if u want to know when to enter and exit. I will exit most stock by next week. Serious correction coming in a few weeks. Early Oct will be the time to enter.

 

just go with d trend.

kellychang      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:38) Posted: well...i agree TA is good...No deny...i am learning TA also... but i just feel that current market is crazy...good news, it up..bad news also up... hmm..sth wrong... n it doesn reflect the current economic and even next 2 year economic... well, to me...i am still a question mark on whether economic will turning better next 2 year... and so, i dun feel that market should so high price now..that is...

 

haha I duno how to invest that time. just follow n at the same time i invest myself with FSM with cash. Now my cash holdings with FSM almost fully recover liao n my CPF holdings still in red 30%. Thanks to that FA..

N btw i dun quite agree with richtan quite a few time on his TA liao.. so nothing much to learn from him, but i appreciate his effort to post his view la.. some forumer still benefited from his call..

cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:27) Posted: freeme...OMG...those FA are all using TA...very common...in a bull makret u see advertisement in papers...calling ppl to buy mini bond..notes lah...these are all TA educated ones..did u ask them how they know...they will say chart all p[oint to the norht , right???so u very happy ...hoot big big right? why pay so much(loss) to learn fr those FA who are TA educated...learn fr richtan can already lah...sure u win big big... freeme      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:16) Posted: haha Financial advisors are useless. B4 i invest on my own, i invest some $ from CPF with them b4 the crisis hits in in 2007. Buying into commodities n china funds, even china fund drop alot nvm, commodities that time oil shoot to 140usd n gold very high, then FA tell me dun sell, commodities will go higher, then after that collapse. Then after HSI this year recover to 15000, FA tell me big crash coming in april n may, ask me to switch all my funds into fixed income fund. Then what,, HSI n the world rally until dow hit 9000 and HSI hit 20000. miss out damn big recovery rally.  Then I call FA angrily, so whats next, when then you wan to advise me to get into the market. Then he say market still unstable, if bull really come dun have to worry it will be over so soon still got time to get in, then I tell him just put my fund back to the market. After I told him that, then u wake up n send an email to all his clients n say recovery coming liao, time to move $ into the equities again. wtf.. im teaching him how to invest instead of listening for his advise... crap..

 

Nah... nah.. I m just an ordinary trader contented with making profits for my pockets without gloating how much I made publicly eg forum,.

I m not a self-proclaimed guru craving for hero-worship in a forum, just so in this forum to share my meagre humble knowledge n exchange views, so no need to gain popularity with me.

cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:31) Posted: kellychang....you still hold penny fr last time?? ..aiyoyo..why..not cut!!!..CUT!!!. OMG...this is one thing richtan said..i agree.cut early!!!..i am saying the true...not to gain popularity with him....no way..   kellychang      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:27) Posted: ok....no point arguing... let see what will happen... of course, if economic turning good, then bonus up...then my last time penny bought can turn green..i also happy... well. i am just prepare for the worst... i still believe what goes up will come down... n i think next year will be the times...that is... things can always go up, else everybody will die very painful... if u guys wan to buy...just continue to buy... n i happy to see you guys earn money also :)

 

u are right, but that may be too early...i thk still got a month..but if got profit..time to take some and reduce exposure...u are right on mostly..

.i generally agree with you...

risktaker      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:28) Posted: If you PM next time if u want to know when to enter and exit. I will exit most stock by next week. Serious correction coming in a few weeks. Early Oct will be the time to enter. freeme      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:16) Posted: haha Financial advisors are useless. B4 i invest on my own, i invest some $ from CPF with them b4 the crisis hits in in 2007. Buying into commodities n china funds, even china fund drop alot nvm, commodities that time oil shoot to 140usd n gold very high, then FA tell me dun sell, commodities will go higher, then after that collapse. Then after HSI this year recover to 15000, FA tell me big crash coming in april n may, ask me to switch all my funds into fixed income fund. Then what,, HSI n the world rally until dow hit 9000 and HSI hit 20000. miss out damn big recovery rally.  Then I call FA angrily, so whats next, when then you wan to advise me to get into the market. Then he say market still unstable, if bull really come dun have to worry it will be over so soon still got time to get in, then I tell him just put my fund back to the market. After I told him that, then u wake up n send an email to all his clients n say recovery coming liao, time to move $ into the equities again. wtf.. im teaching him how to invest instead of listening for his advise... crap..

 

Hi Risktaker, being an innocent novice , maybe you can help me a little on how to spot the storm, next week is very very close, what are the indicators that makes you conclude the correction is coming in OCT?

risktaker      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:28) Posted: If you PM next time if u want to know when to enter and exit. I will exit most stock by next week. Serious correction coming in a few weeks. Early Oct will be the time to enter. freeme      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:16) Posted: haha Financial advisors are useless. B4 i invest on my own, i invest some $ from CPF with them b4 the crisis hits in in 2007. Buying into commodities n china funds, even china fund drop alot nvm, commodities that time oil shoot to 140usd n gold very high, then FA tell me dun sell, commodities will go higher, then after that collapse. Then after HSI this year recover to 15000, FA tell me big crash coming in april n may, ask me to switch all my funds into fixed income fund. Then what,, HSI n the world rally until dow hit 9000 and HSI hit 20000. miss out damn big recovery rally.  Then I call FA angrily, so whats next, when then you wan to advise me to get into the market. Then he say market still unstable, if bull really come dun have to worry it will be over so soon still got time to get in, then I tell him just put my fund back to the market. After I told him that, then u wake up n send an email to all his clients n say recovery coming liao, time to move $ into the equities again. wtf.. im teaching him how to invest instead of listening for his advise... crap..

 

well...i agree TA is good...No deny...i am learning TA also...

but i just feel that current market is crazy...good news, it up..bad news also up...

hmm..sth wrong...

n it doesn reflect the current economic and even next 2 year economic...

well, to me...i am still a question mark on whether economic will turning better next 2 year...

and so, i dun feel that market should so high price now..that is...

 

kellychang...ok i will pm u , if next leg down to buy blues...no penny and mid cap...i will assure you will buy at the near low...i will book mark you..OK....i promise you,,,woman are always right...

we see...dont be too carry away..all you guy ...

 

what i doing now is see got big news not...

then no big news..i hold my  last time holding...just hold...now cut or no cut also no different...

but i am not going to buy anymore...that is...

wait for better chance to exit and buy ........

cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:31) Posted: kellychang....you still hold penny fr last time?? ..aiyoyo..why..not cut!!!..CUT!!!. OMG...this is one thing richtan said..i agree.cut early!!!..i am saying the true...not to gain popularity with him....no way..   kellychang      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:27) Posted: ok....no point arguing... let see what will happen... of course, if economic turning good, then bonus up...then my last time penny bought can turn green..i also happy... well. i am just prepare for the worst... i still believe what goes up will come down... n i think next year will be the times...that is... things can always go up, else everybody will die very painful... if u guys wan to buy...just continue to buy... n i happy to see you guys earn money also :)

 

cheongwee,

Try telling Mark Skousen and many other TA practitioners like Alexander Elders, Gregory L. Morris, Steve Nison, John Murphy, those TA experts in "Uncommon Wisdom", "Money and Markets", "RickAckerman.Com", "Oil N' Gold" , "Big Trends.com" and many endless list tat TA is "rubbish thing", lousy.

Read below Mark Skousen logic on why TA is not "rubbish thing" nor lousy:

How to Grab Significant Short-Term Profits From Technical Trading

by Mark Skousen, Advisory Panelist

Highlights in this issue:

• Why you should add a few technical tools to your investment arsenal.

• How to gauge investor sentiment, "tech-style."

• These two effective technical indicators point to three investments.

Dear Investment U Reader,

"The overwhelming majority of economic theories, market forecasts, trading strategies, investment systems, hot tips and sure-fire speculations never pan out." ~ Alexander Green

In the August 14 Investment U issue - "Why Most Investment Systems Simply Don't Work" - Alexander Green urged you to stick with the tried-and-true method of fundamental analysis.

He did so using this mantra: "There is only one thing that dictates where a stock will go: earnings."

I agree that earnings are the ultimate determinant of stock prices in the long run. But that's not the only way to gauge where a stock is headed next.

I firmly believe that technical analysis - volume, trading patterns and historical trends - can enhance your returns tremendously and can keep you out of trouble in many cases. Here's why...

How an Earnings-Based Investment Model Crippled Bank of America Buyers

The problem with taking a straight earnings approach to investing is that stock prices aren't determined by current or past earnings, but by future earnings in relation to the current price.

Throughout the past decade, for example, earnings looked great for Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). In June 2008, it earned a record $3 billion. You'd have made a bundle of money investing in BAC during the new millennium. Factoring in rising dividends, stock splits and share price appreciation, you'd have tripled your money.

But over the next year, Bank of America's earnings plummeted, and by the end of 2008 it had lost $2.3 billion. The stock followed, collapsing from $50 to under $3 a share, wiping out all of the previous eight years' worth of profits (although the stock has since rebounded to $17 a share).

By time the bank announced a sharp drop in earnings, the price was way down - and investors who bought based on earnings had lost their shirts.

So how does one anticipate an earnings collapse like that?

Use Technical Analysis to Prevent Pain - And Profit

Needless to say, sound economic analysis doesn't hurt. Many economists (including our own Alex Green) predicted a real estate collapse and the subsequent financial trouble.

But using technical and historical trend analysis can also prove extremely helpful in improving your investment results.

For example, many technical analysts have fared extremely well over the past decade (and more), using chart patterns, volume and historical trends. And investors like Bert Dohmen, Jim Dines and Dennis Slothower profited from major trends in commodities, stocks and foreign currency, while avoiding most of the financial crises in 2008, because they used an advanced version of technical analysis.

Here are two other simple tools that have proven very effective...

If you used these two technical tools together, you'd have got out the stock market in October 2007 and not re-entered until April this year - without being whipsawed back into the market. Not bad.

Chart: http://www.investmentu.com/images/iu082709chart.gif

Gauging Investor Sentiment... Tech-Style

Put simply, technical analysis isn't a crystal ball, but it's a good way to measure the psychology of the market.

When new highs and new lows are at all-time highs, it suggests a strong bullish trend. Conversely, if the indicator is at an all-time low, it signals incredible pessimism.

The new highs/new lows indicator gave a sell signal in October 2007 and a buy signal in April 2009 it's still bullish.

According to the chart, the market is headed higher, so investors should consider several choices...

Of course, technical traders use a variety of ratios, indicators and charting patterns to make their buying and selling decisions. Their systems are never perfect because human action is not always predictable, but human behavior and the herd instincts are sometimes quite apparent and experienced traders can make a great deal of money and avoid the worst of bear markets.

Good trading - AEIOU,

Mark Skousen

cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:18) Posted: yes...your tool theory is ok...only thing is that those rubbish thing as good as guessing? like TA...why some spend $$$ 2k to 3k to learn from those so call TA expert...better you got into a course to improve your job prospect.. unless...it is at least 70% accurate..you are wasting your time and effort..even he himself is cock sure... rermember after fall to mid 2010...not 1000 yrs fr now...we see...ask TA guy to give you a est time frame and then compare later...not 1000 yrs...just mths away only...   thomas_low      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:08) Posted: Handyman always have a variety of tools, be it shiny day or rainy days, so why not keep them all and use them at the appropriate moment rather than saying manual screw driver is no good we need an electric one or vice versa, hand tired, use the electric one...no FA, use TA, no TA use FA, no TA FA go AA..haha

 

kellychang....you still hold penny fr last time?? ..aiyoyo..why..not cut!!!..CUT!!!.

OMG...this is one thing richtan said..i agree.cut early!!!..i am saying the true...not to gain popularity with him....no way..

 

kellychang      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:27) Posted: ok....no point arguing... let see what will happen... of course, if economic turning good, then bonus up...then my last time penny bought can turn green..i also happy... well. i am just prepare for the worst... i still believe what goes up will come down... n i think next year will be the times...that is... things can always go up, else everybody will die very painful... if u guys wan to buy...just continue to buy... n i happy to see you guys earn money also :)

 

If you PM next time if u want to know when to enter and exit. I will exit most stock by next week. Serious correction coming in a few weeks. Early Oct will be the time to enter.

freeme      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:16) Posted: haha Financial advisors are useless. B4 i invest on my own, i invest some $ from CPF with them b4 the crisis hits in in 2007. Buying into commodities n china funds, even china fund drop alot nvm, commodities that time oil shoot to 140usd n gold very high, then FA tell me dun sell, commodities will go higher, then after that collapse. Then after HSI this year recover to 15000, FA tell me big crash coming in april n may, ask me to switch all my funds into fixed income fund. Then what,, HSI n the world rally until dow hit 9000 and HSI hit 20000. miss out damn big recovery rally.  Then I call FA angrily, so whats next, when then you wan to advise me to get into the market. Then he say market still unstable, if bull really come dun have to worry it will be over so soon still got time to get in, then I tell him just put my fund back to the market. After I told him that, then u wake up n send an email to all his clients n say recovery coming liao, time to move $ into the equities again. wtf.. im teaching him how to invest instead of listening for his advise... crap.. cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:02) Posted: of course...1000 yrs...well we see it after fall..to mid 2010...forget abt TA...he himself also say it is not fantastic...he admited himself right??? it is just past data collected..if u follow TA last Mar..u miss the train together with him.....i am sure he is..

 

freeme...OMG...those FA are all using TA...very common...in a bull makret u see advertisement in papers...calling ppl to buy mini bond..notes lah...these are all TA educated ones..did u ask them how they know...they will say chart all p[oint to the norht , right???so u very happy ...hoot big big right?

why pay so much(loss) to learn fr those FA who are TA educated...learn fr richtan can already lah...sure u win big big...

freeme      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:16) Posted: haha Financial advisors are useless. B4 i invest on my own, i invest some $ from CPF with them b4 the crisis hits in in 2007. Buying into commodities n china funds, even china fund drop alot nvm, commodities that time oil shoot to 140usd n gold very high, then FA tell me dun sell, commodities will go higher, then after that collapse. Then after HSI this year recover to 15000, FA tell me big crash coming in april n may, ask me to switch all my funds into fixed income fund. Then what,, HSI n the world rally until dow hit 9000 and HSI hit 20000. miss out damn big recovery rally.  Then I call FA angrily, so whats next, when then you wan to advise me to get into the market. Then he say market still unstable, if bull really come dun have to worry it will be over so soon still got time to get in, then I tell him just put my fund back to the market. After I told him that, then u wake up n send an email to all his clients n say recovery coming liao, time to move $ into the equities again. wtf.. im teaching him how to invest instead of listening for his advise... crap.. cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:02) Posted: of course...1000 yrs...well we see it after fall..to mid 2010...forget abt TA...he himself also say it is not fantastic...he admited himself right??? it is just past data collected..if u follow TA last Mar..u miss the train together with him.....i am sure he is..

 

ok....no point arguing... let see what will happen...

of course, if economic turning good, then bonus up...then my last time penny bought can turn green..i also happy...

well. i am just prepare for the worst...

i still believe what goes up will come down...

n i think next year will be the times...that is...

things can always go up, else everybody will die very painful...

if u guys wan to buy...just continue to buy...

n i happy to see you guys earn money also :)

 

  Hahaha, I too sometimes  do regret arguing with gals here, but i do feel sorry for them...esp stubborn gals.

Yes, I agree tat woman are now smarter, but tat does not mean guys are stupidier.

cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 21:08) Posted: sometimes i do regret arguing .with guy here, but i dont feel sorry for them...esp stubborn guy.. i love quarrelling with guy, because they are guy..who care...like they say...faceless... woman are now snmarter,,...most school principle are woman...great engineer of the society.

 

yes...your tool theory is ok...only thing is that those rubbish thing as good as guessing? like TA...why some spend $$$ 2k to 3k to learn from those so call TA expert...better you got into a course to improve your job prospect..

unless...it is at least 70% accurate..you are wasting your time and effort..even he himself is cock sure...

rermember after fall to mid 2010...not 1000 yrs fr now...we see...ask TA guy to give you a est time frame and then compare later...not 1000 yrs...just mths away only...

 

thomas_low      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:08) Posted: Handyman always have a variety of tools, be it shiny day or rainy days, so why not keep them all and use them at the appropriate moment rather than saying manual screw driver is no good we need an electric one or vice versa, hand tired, use the electric one...no FA, use TA, no TA use FA, no TA FA go AA..haha

 

haha Financial advisors are useless. B4 i invest on my own, i invest some $ from CPF with them b4 the crisis hits in in 2007. Buying into commodities n china funds, even china fund drop alot nvm, commodities that time oil shoot to 140usd n gold very high, then FA tell me dun sell, commodities will go higher, then after that collapse. Then after HSI this year recover to 15000, FA tell me big crash coming in april n may, ask me to switch all my funds into fixed income fund. Then what,, HSI n the world rally until dow hit 9000 and HSI hit 20000. miss out damn big recovery rally. 

Then I call FA angrily, so whats next, when then you wan to advise me to get into the market. Then he say market still unstable, if bull really come dun have to worry it will be over so soon still got time to get in, then I tell him just put my fund back to the market. After I told him that, then u wake up n send an email to all his clients n say recovery coming liao, time to move $ into the equities again. wtf.. im teaching him how to invest instead of listening for his advise... crap..

cheongwee      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 23:02) Posted: of course...1000 yrs...well we see it after fall..to mid 2010...forget abt TA...he himself also say it is not fantastic...he admited himself right??? it is just past data collected..if u follow TA last Mar..u miss the train together with him.....i am sure he is.. thomas_low      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 22:54) Posted: I heard something very interesteing from the Radio 938.5, he talked about financial advisors, they always say market is bullish but there is a chance of downside. So I pretend to be a financial advisor here, The bull market continues as the sentiments in US are improving but there is a chance of double dip. Useful huh? We must prepare for another meltdown which will happen one day (yes if you project it for another 1000 years I can guarantee there will be one serious meltdonw)... Simply my dear financial advisors, please tell us within what timeframe the bull market will be there and whithin which timeframe the bear will be there and not say stupid things like it may happen. If you quote like that, my little 3 years old can also be a financial advisor. Have a good day tomorrow think before you advise your clients tomorrow. Cheers.

 

thomas low...even TA guy said i am lucky to be right...and he is right...this rd i am extreme lucky.

and mostly right...call buy near the bottom on Mar 19 which i posted..if he post his TA then ...you would have miss the train......and i call most stock correctly...did he got it right???..

since he admit his TA is not so fantastic...why shd u all bother...ok go ahead and study...see you make $$$...that is your aim right in doing TA?..it is nothing but guessing...all analyst do that...are they right...if you follow they are 70% wrong..

 

 

thomas_low      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 22:54) Posted: I heard something very interesteing from the Radio 938.5, he talked about financial advisors, they always say market is bullish but there is a chance of downside. So I pretend to be a financial advisor here, The bull market continues as the sentiments in US are improving but there is a chance of double dip. Useful huh? We must prepare for another meltdown which will happen one day (yes if you project it for another 1000 years I can guarantee there will be one serious meltdonw)... Simply my dear financial advisors, please tell us within what timeframe the bull market will be there and whithin which timeframe the bear will be there and not say stupid things like it may happen. If you quote like that, my little 3 years old can also be a financial advisor. Have a good day tomorrow think before you advise your clients tomorrow. Cheers.

 

Handyman always have a variety of tools, be it shiny day or rainy days, so why not keep them all and use them at the appropriate moment rather than saying manual screw driver is no good we need an electric one or vice versa, hand tired, use the electric one...no FA, use TA, no TA use FA, no TA FA go AA..haha

 

double-dip is most unlikely.