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capitaland needs to get their act together
The stock accelerated on the downside, capped by the descending 20day and 50day moving averages. RSI is still negatively oriented, without showing any significant reversal signals.Looks for new pullback toward $2.85 and $2.60 in extension .
UOBKH Weekly Market Watch
CapitaLand (BUY/Target: S$4.45)
Oversold on China and tapering concerns value emerging
We see value emerging from CapitaLand, which has been sold down 32% from its February high, worse than any of the S-REITs. Key concerns for CapitaLand include a slowdown in China and rising interest rates, which could discourage homebuying. However, we think the finance cost for developers is a small component of the overall development cost. As home-buying sentiment improves, developers are usually quick to pass on the cost to end-homebuyers.
CapitaLand is trading at attractive discounts to its RNAV and long-term P/B. The recent acquisitions of a mixed site in Shanghai and a prime landed property in Singapore could result in an RNAV accretion of 5 S cents/share. Our target price is pegged at a 15% discount to its RNAV.
Technically, the stock appears to be supported near S$2.95 and it is preferred that the stock could break above S$3.40 for further upside.
From CIMB
New rules for property loans
We view MAS’s new rules for property loans as a move to instil more financial prudence, rather than target the property sector. Our checks show that leverage in the system is not stretched and affordability is still sound. Any knee-jerk reaction would be a buying opportunity. We estimate that unsold residential units make up on average only 7% of total developer GAVs. We remain Overweight on the sector, with the top picks being GLP, UOL and CapLand. Asset recycling upside and stronger office rents form the stock catalysts.
What Happened
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has introduced a total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) framework for all property loans granted by financial institutions (FIs) and refined certain rules om LTV limits. The key features are 1) FIs factor in total debt obligations when granting property loans, 2) a medium-term interest rate be applied to property loans (3.5% for residential property), 3) property loans not exceed a TDSR of 60%, 4) “guarantors” for a loan not meeting the TDSR threshold be brought in as co-borrowers and 5) FIs use the income-weighted average age in cases of joint borrowers.
What We Think
While more marginal buyers will be removed from the equation and demand will continue to moderate, we believe that a housing collapse is unlikely for a few reasons 1) FIs have generally kept to a mortgage servicing ratio (MSR) limit of 30-40%. Guidance from FIs is that average system MSR is c.28-30% and while average TDSR will be higher, we believe this ratio is still substantially lower than 60%, 2) our ground checks suggest that while there have been some cases of loans being extended to " guarantors" to circumvent LTV limits, this trend is not prevalent and 3) the average mortgage-income ratio for private residential properties (based on top income bracket quartile) remains strong at 25% currently and 33% on a normalised interest rate of 3.5%, by our estimates. While there are still supply issues, we believe that the sector is in better financial health than in 2007-08.
What You Should
We remain Overweight on the sector and see any knee-jerk reaction to the news as a buying opportunity. This latest move should not have an adverse effect on stock valuations.
I dont think so too. Capitaland is diversified in their portfolio - China just assuaged fears of their credit crunch. For local developments, they not only targeting locals, but an overseas clientle too. Think today's stock movements are knee-jerk reaction to MAS announcement. Anyway, most banks also consider the loan percentage of income, when they do their risk assessment. So this is not v new. Just ppl who father-buys-property-in-son's-name are affected.
I don't think there is any impact.
738 units at the J Gate, a 99 year leasehold in Jurong East was sold out on the first day of launch at average price of $1450 psf.
tanglinboy ( Date: 30-Jun-2013 15:16) Posted:
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Any impact to our forummers here?
MAS sets new home loan rules
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has set new home loan rules which discourage lenders from making property loans that result in individual borrowers using more than 60 per cent of their monthly incomes to service debt.
The central bank said in a statement on Friday that the new rules will take effect from Saturday.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/mas-sets-new-home-loan/727950.html
Octavia ( Date: 22-Jun-2013 15:52) Posted:
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see it as a looonnggg-term stock to hold.
i sold cma to buy this yesterday and got trapped :'(
haizz seem like a bad move
appears to be a struggling blue chip at the moment since the rest seem to have recovered quite quickly.
a reversal? look like bear is still around
More buy up than sell down
| Trades | Vol | BuyVol | Mid | SellVol |
| 11 | 62 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
| 276 | 1,973 | 971 | 0 | 1,002 |
| 537 | 3,706 | 1,125 | 0 | 2,581 |
| 230 | 2,541 | 915 | 0 | 1,626 |
| 627 | 5,780 | 513 | 0 | 5,267 |
| 114 | 434 | 0 | 0 | 434 |
| 1,795 | 14,496 | 3,586 | 0 | 10,910 |
Hope to see $3.14 soon.
Congratulation to all who invested in this stock. But my commission costs me around$200. So expensive.
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Last | Vol | Buy/Sell |
| 10:48:12 | 3.1 | 1 | S |
| 10:48:01 | 3.09 | 100 | B |
| 10:47:29 | 3.09 | 40 | B |
| 10:47:20 | 3.09 | 6 | B |
| 10:47:11 | 3.09 | 3 | B |
| 10:47:03 | 3.09 | 10 | B |
| 10:46:56 | 3.09 | 8 | B |
| 10:46:42 | 3.09 | 1 | B |
| 10:46:34 | 3.09 | 100 | B |
| 10:46:26 | 3.09 | 4 | S |
| 10:46:26 | 3.09 | 1 | S |
| 10:46:23 | 3.09 | 1 | S |
| 10:46:22 | 3.09 | 48 | S |
| 10:46:22 | 3.09 | 12 | S |
| 10:46:18 | 3.09 | 11 | S |
| 10:46:12 | 3.09 | 3 | S |
| 10:46:12 | 3.09 | 5 | S |
| 10:46:11 | 3.09 | 20 | B |
| 10:46:11 | 3.09 | 23 | B |
BBs short down to 2.98 and collect cheap on 24/06/13.
This is the big game that BBs know how to play.
eurekaw ( Date: 27-Jun-2013 00:04) Posted:
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How u know are bbs locking in profit?
Richman ( Date: 26-Jun-2013 13:32) Posted:
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not doing so well still? what's weighing them down?
C31 (Capitaland)