Time Watch   

Turnaround Theme

Market undergoing a reset now....the target price look reasonable to me.

 

STI is gonna....Read the article below. Thread cautiously, Target price: 0.18 to 0.22

http://news.asiaone.com/News/AsiaOne%2BNews/Asia/Story/A1Story20070810-21472.html

 

Selling pressure still very high......the

 

DBS GROUP Research - 4 May 2007

Trade Dynamics

Last price $0.305

Target price $0.375

Entry level $0.305

Stop loss $0.285

 

 

Thanks for correcting me on that one.

I did not come across any analyst report. Can you publish the report?

The key thing is that if you look at half year ended 31Dec06, they incurred very high Administrative and Distribution expense. A significant portion was due to acquisitin of East Base and Tick Tack. The actual cost is HK$20.9 million which is indicated in 2006 Annual Report. Since acquisition is in July06, the cost is reflected in the 1H report. EPS for 1H is HK6.18 cents and profit is HK26.41 million. Also fyi I have verified that the percentage for administrative and distribution expense for past finacial few records and it does show that expense for 31Dec06 is exceptionally high in terms of percentage. The expense for the other financial report is relatively consistent.

Assuming no increase in revenue i.e. similar to 1HDec06, net profit is estimated at HK46 million or approx EPS of HK10 cents. Total EPS is thus HK16.18 cents or SGD0.0312. My previous estimate is higher as I have projected revenue growth. Thus with this projection, I suspect there will also be dividends.

For the next financial year, there is no further acqusition activity and thus it is reasonable to expect them to grow further with double digit growth due to significant improved profit margin as well as double digit revenue growth.

Past RTO is already taken into account through dilution of shares and as there is a share consolidation, all past EPS should be multiplied by 50.

The fact that the director has recently made share purchase of 1.5 millions share in the market at 0.298cents is also another indication of his confidence in the company and his valuation of the company's share. 

Please correct me if you think I am wrong.

 

jkbk007,

The result should be for Financial Year FY07 not FY06!!  I got this from one of their press release...

TIME WATCH?S SALES REVENUE UP 12%

TO HK$ 446 MILLION FOR 1HY 2007

I also read through some analysts report, but thier EPS projection are way below that projected by you. Could you share how you do your projected?

 

 

Sincere Watch Q1 profit up 147%
BUOYED by increased demand for luxury watches across the region and in the absence of foreign exchange losses, Sincere Watch saw its net profit for the first quarter ended June 30 more than doubled from a year ago.

The premier watch retailer said it clocked a 147 per cent year-on-year surge in net profit to $4.92 million on a 19.7 per cent jump in revenue to $95.1 million despite the April-June quarter being a traditionally weak season for the retail industry. Earnings per share came to 2.38 cents, up from 0.96.

This was because of increased demand for the group's timepieces across the region, particularly in Hong Kong and Singapore where there was strong economic growth and increased tourist traffic, the group said.

Its revenue received a further boost from its active expansion strategy in Singapore and the Asia-Pacific region. Compared to a year ago, the April-June quarter this year saw new Sincere shops in VivoCity (Sincere Fine Watches) and Raffles City (Omega) in Singapore, a new Franck Muller boutique in Beijing and an enlarged Franck Muller boutique in Central Hong Kong. A duty-free travel retail outlet at the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi was opened during the quarter.

'The retail and tourism landscape in Singapore, and other key Asian cities, is undergoing a renaissance,' said Sincere's managing director Tay Liam Wee. 'Sincere will continue to grow with the region's booming economies and will benefit from Asia's growing appetite for luxury watches.'

 

 

BullRun,

Financial year closes in June. Result is for 06. Perhaps some investor are fearful of a negative earnings report as FY2005 is negative due to RTO.

Chance of stronger trend reversal on Friday as Sincere Watch has just released their Q1 2007 report. For such low volume share, share price can reverse and surge up quickly. TA won't be accurate and by the time it surge it is too late for you to make big bucks.

Dun wait, take small downside risk and buy big and you are most likely to make big returns.

 

Selling pressure is still strong inspite of the better market sentiment.  Some how got confused with the financial year after reading some postings here..is the coming result announcement for FY07 or FY 06?

 

this is the right time to buy if you have spare cash... cos' there will be right window of 33-36 cents for you to cashout in 6-12mths

 

Dun worry lah....fundamental is good and upcoming financial report for 2006 will be good. May even have dividend. Also expect double digit increasing revenue and profit growth for 2007 and 2008. 

Last few days selling are largely due to panic selling because
1) they are selling on technical
2) they could not see the business fundamental, analysing the annual report is pretty tough for the novice to figure out the business fundamental.
3) of global concern from US credit problem
4) of emotional fear from price drop
5) speculator pushing down to price in hope of buying the accumulating the share at low price.

Best to hang in till the report is out on 24 Aug. 

 

Got to hold liao~~ keke... Too weak leh...

 

Selling Pressure is still high.........

 

I am not worried either. So called high downside pressure has no fundamental basis.

I am confident with the company fundamentals that the company will continue to grow strongly in the next 3 years. I expect rebound before 24 Aug and further uptrend after 24 Aug.

 

 

not so worry as it is common to buy a few bids higher even during bull run... probbaly will buy more if it correct further...

 

As expected, huge downside pressure. May correct further before any recovery.....

 

Jim Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999.

China is a market that Rogers isn't selling even as the fallout from subprime drag on share prices worldwide, he said. He's sold his other emerging market holdings as stock gains outstripped the prospect for earnings, Rogers added.

``China's the next great country in the world and we must learn about investing in China, because that's where fantastic fortunes are going to be made in the next century,'' Rogers said. ``I would be looking at China very carefully.''

 

Time Watch is already reaping benefits from its aquisition last year. In the first half report, the Group incurred higher 'Administrative expenses' as they spend approximately HK$20 millions in the acquisition of 2 companies Ease Nase Ltd and Tick Tack. With no further acquisition activity in the 2Q, we can expect significantly higher profit margin due to significant lower expense (i.e. a lower expense of less HK$20 millions).

With the expectations that the company is likely to achieve higher sales from it acqusition activity in the past 1.5 years, we can expect higher sales in the 2H. The end result is a multiple effect of higher sales and significant improved profit margin (abt 50% increase) that will almost guarantee a sterling result for the financial year 2006. There is also possibility of further  increased profit due to the appreciating yuan.

Finally moving to the next financial year 2007, Time Watch will start will reap 100% benefit from its past acquisition. Further expansion of retail business and continued boom in China is also likely to see Time Watch to experience further revenue growth.

There is also likely further news coverage about the company after the disclosure of 2006 financial report. 

 

Not many selling and not many buying too! With the current market sentiments, downside pressure will be high unless there are surprises in the coming result announcement.

 

bought 100lots on friday. not many selling.. so can buy if you can hold.