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Sembmarine

On Friday, Sembmar trend downwards and closed at $3.78 with LOW volume of 9.35 million shares traded.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Both RSI & MACD are flat as RSI trend sideways.

Important Resistance of Sembmar: $4.15

Immediate Support of Sembmar: $3.70

Currently prices are well below the 20/50/100/200 days MA.

Recently, oil-rig companies have been under heavy corrections due to poor economics outlook.

Till now, we do not see any signs of rebound as prices continue to hang onto the critical support at $3.70.

More selling will be trigger once $3.70 support breached with high volume.

Can consider to buy at $3.70 support but do cut loss once this support give way with high volume.

http://singstocks.com/

 

You also notice this stock.  I was thinking to start something on this last friday.  But was told to wait.

krisluke      ( Date: 11-Sep-2011 21:34) Posted: DMG & Partners has cut its target price for Singapore oil rig builders Keppel Corp (KPLM.SI) and Sembcorp Marine (SCMN.SI) but kept its buy rating for both companies. DMG’s new target for Keppel Corp is $11.03, down from $13.35, while it now says SembMarine is worth $5.46, versus $6.25 previously. DMG has lowered its 2012 earnings per share estimates for Keppel and SembMarine by 3-5% to account for lower order wins as it expects rig owners to slow down their spending on new rigs. “While share prices could see near term weakness on rising concerns over new orders and potential cancellations, we think the offshore and marine sector is more resilient today given stronger customer profile for existing orders, continued pickup in rig day rates,” said DMG in a report. The brokerage said it prefers Keppel over SembMarine in times of uncertainty given the former’s stronger earnings visibility in 2012. At 9:58 a.m., shares of Keppel were 0.12% lower at $8.63, having fallen 16% since the start of the year. SembMarine shares fell 0.52% to $3.83 and are down about 29% since the start of the year.

 

wow, thanks for the chart & reports, sifu krisluke. So it seems petrobras hasn't awarded the contracts yet.

In SMM's weekly chart, stochastics has bottomed. hope price will start to move up in 1 , 2 weeks' time.

May i wish all SMM  investors  huat big big!!! 

 

 

 

By Low Pei Han
Tue, 6 Sep 2011, 09:10:16 SGT

Aug will be marked as the month in 2011 when heightened risk aversion in equity markets drove prices down, impacting high-beta stocks such as Sembcorp Marine (SMM). Though the fall in SMM’s share price is understandable with the negative market sentiment and correction in oil prices, the stock looks over-sold at current levels. Though there is no escaping the cyclical macro downtrend, the main driver of the offshore oil and gas industry still boils down to the level of oil price which is still hovering above the US$75/bbl threshold that will sustain most capital expenditure in deeper water projects. Recent comments from SMM’s key customers have also been encouraging. However, with the unfavourable macro set-up for cyclicals, we have lowered our peg for SMM’s operations (ex- Cosco) to 14x blended FY11/12F earnings (prev. 16x) and updated the market value of Cosco Corp, hence reducing our fair value estimate to S$5.70 (prev. S$6.30). Maintain BUY.

Uncertainty in the market... Aug will be marked as the month in 2011 when heightened risk aversion in equity markets drove prices down, impacting high-beta stocks such as Sembcorp Marine (SMM). Though the fall in SMM’s share price is understandable with the negative market sentiment and correction in oil prices, the stock looks over-sold at current levels, trading at 11x forward P/E - one standard deviation below its five-year historical mean of 16x. The last time SMM was trading at this level was in early Oct 08, while its lowest point was 5.5x, also in the same month (Exhibit 2).

... but not in the industry, yet. Though there is no escaping the cyclical macro downtrend, the main driver of the offshore oil and gas industry still boils down to the level of oil price which is still hovering above the US$75/bbl threshold that will sustain most capital expenditure in deeper water projects. Day rates for premium jack-up rigs (which SMM has been receiving orders) have been increasing, in contrast to lower spec rigs (Exhibit 4). We have also collated recent comments from SMM’s key customers, and according to established players such as Seadrill, the market for premium jack-up rigs continued to show improvement with strong interest from customers, increased tendering activity and upward trends in day rates in most regions. This is because oil companies remain attracted to the safety and efficiency gains offered by newer and high spec jack-up rigs. That said, oil prices still depend on the health of the global economy, for the demand of oil rests on the consumption growth of major economies. Increasing risks of a US economic recession and the paralysed state of affairs in the EU give investors good reason to stay at the sidelines for now.

Still optimistic about new order wins. SMM has met about 60% of our full year new order estimate of S$4.5b, but we remain optimistic about new order wins, underpinned by still strong fundamentals of the offshore industry. Besides jack-ups, the group is also looking at both fixed and floating production units for potential work. However, with the unfavourable macro set-up for cyclicals, we have lowered our peg for SMM’s operations (ex- Cosco) to 14x blended FY11/12F earnings (prev. 16x) and updated the market value of Cosco Corp, hence reducing our fair value estimate to S$5.70 (prev. S$6.30). Maintain BUY.

 

Not yer, I supposed. Read recent news below.

June 7, 2011

The board of directors of Brazilian state-owned oil company Petrobras has given its approval for the bidding process to award contracts for up to 21 offshore drilling rigs that will be built in Brazil.

Petrobras says it will award two contracts for each rig: one a leasing contract with the successful bidder, and the other a rig operation service contract with a company experienced in operating offshore drilling rigs.

Companies invited can submit a proposal for one or more batches of one or more rigs, up to a total of 21 units. Each rig will require a minimum of Brazilian content as specified by the National Petroleum Agency (ANP).

The bidding process is part of a strategy for contracting up to 28 new drilling rigs to be built in Brazil for exploration in ultra-deep waters, including the pre-salt fields.

In February this year, Brazil's Atlântico Sul Shipyard (EAS) won the bid to build seven drill ships for Petrobras. The final price amounted to $4.6 billion (a figure of around $662 million per drill ship). Korea's Samsung Heavy Industries is a partner in EAS.

http://www.marinelog.com/index.php?option=com_content& view=article& id=919%3Apetrobras-board-give-green-light-for-21-drill-rigs07jun2011j01& Itemid=107

 

Petrobras contracts awarded already or not? how come so long still no news?

 

Comex Gold (GC)

Fall from 1923.7 is viewed as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1917.9 and another decline is still in favor, possibly retest 1705.4 support. On the upside, sustained break of 1923.7 will confirm up trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 1478.3 to 1917.9 from 1705.4 at 1977.1.

In the bigger picture, firstly, gold's long term up trend is still intact and there is no signal of reversal yet. Current development suggests that gold will attempt to make a new record high above 1917.9 in near term possibly to 61.8% projection of 1478.3 to 1917.9 from 1705.4 at 1997.1. But we'll be cautious on another near term reversal near to 2000 psychological level and finally bring some lengthier consolidation. But in any case, we won't consider medium term reversal possibly before sustained break of 55 days EMA (now at 1706.7)

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

 

EIA CUT DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012 AS ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES WEAKEN

Similar to equities, oil prices remained pressured in European session as investors did not find Obama's plan appealing. The front-month contract for WTI crude oil price slipped for a second consecutive day to 88.3/88.6 although crude inventory drew more than expected last week. Crude stockpile fell -3.96 mmb to 353.09 mmb in the week ended September 2. Cushing stock also slid -0.40 mmb to 32.67 mmb, the lowest level since November 2010 but inventory continued to build at PADD 2 (Midwest). The stubbornly high inventory level in PADD 2 has contributed a great deal to the fall in WTI price.

In the latest Short-term Energy Report, the DOE/EIA revised down its global and US growth forecasts as economic activities have slowed down recently. US real GDP is expected to grow +1.5% this year and +1.9% in 2012, compared with +2.4% and 2.6%, respectively, projected in August. World GDP as weighed by oil consumption will probably expand +3.1% in 2011 and +3.8% in 2012, down from + 3.4% and 4.1%, respectively in the prior report. The agency also made modest changes in global demand outlook. Oil demand is expected to rise +1.58% y/y to 88.2M bpd this year (August: 88.19M bpd), then by +1.58% to 88.2M bpd (August: 89.83M bpd) in 2012. As we await the forecasts from the OPEC and the IEA, we expect the IEA will revised lower its global oil demand estimates for both 2011 and 2012, making them consistent with the deteriorating economic outlook.

Gold strengthened further as various uncertainties continued to cloud the economic outlook. New unveiled that former Libyan leader Qaddafi sold 29 tons, around 20% of Libya's gold reserves, of gold worth of US$1.7 B beginning in April. The news might have affected the market but the impact should have been little. Central banks in emerging economies remained allured to the yellow metal. In central Asia, Kazakhstan's central bank said earlier in the week that it would be buying up the country's total gold output from January 1, 2012 to at least 2014/15 in an attempt to diversify from exposure to the US dollar.

Headline CPI in China eased to +6.2% y/y in August, from +6.5% in July, as the rise in food prices moderated. Core inflation (excluding food), however, increased to +3.0%, up from +2.9% in July. While staying at elevated level, the report sent further signal that Chinese inflation has peaked in July and the government might turn less aggressive in tightening. Yet, at current inflation level, we do not think investors' interests in buying gold as inflation hedge would be dampened. Data from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) showed that trading volume for precious metals exceeded 11M tons while turnover rose above RMB 1 trillion as of August. Gold should remain a sought-after asset among Chinese investors.

 

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's choppy rebound from 75.71 is still in progress and further rise could still be seen. Price actions from 75.71 are still looking corrective but near term outlook will be cautiously bullish as long as 83.20 support holds and further rise could be seen towards 100.62 resistance. On the downside, though, break of 83.20 will now be the first signal of resumption of fall form 114.83 and should target 75.71 and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as the second leg of consolidation pattern from 147.24 and should have finished at 114.83 already. Current decline should target next key cluster support at 64.23 (61.8% retracement of 33.2 to 114.83 at 64.38) next. Sustained break will pave the way to retest 33.2 low. However, break of 100.62 resistance will indicate that fall from 114.83 has completed after missing 100% projection target. The corrective structure of such decline in turn argues that rise from 33.2 is still in progress for another high above 114.83.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

 

$3.83, don't want to wait anymore.

rayyeo      ( Date: 09-Sep-2011 12:41) Posted: U sold at?

 

U sold at?

 

I finally sold liao, waste my time!

 

I didn't sell too. Hope tmr won't kanna wack also. :(

 

Thanks for the valuable tips, missed the chance to sell off this morning. Hope don't get wack tomorrow.

risktaker      ( Date: 08-Sep-2011 20:50) Posted: I try to post message yesterday but seems my connection got problem.  Some Tips for you guys ! There are sellers & shorters ... in both Sembcorp and sembmarine counter Today & Yesterday. Yesterday was damn crazy market was recovering and I went to clear up the Semb counters... cos they seems to lag in the market movement but seriously these 2 counters only have sellers and shorters. Whenever I clear the seller Queue the seller will restack or throw to me... all big time seller. " cannot be named" ... so end I throw dump everything down..... fortunately for  me I manage to break even. This 2 stocks got big sellers if sentiment not good sure kenna wack. Trade with care. If i were you i will not buy these 2 counters in near term. Wait till things get settle down a little more. Another counter I played yesterday is CLand which i sold Today :) Do not short.... BB are supporting this counter. I might buy again :P Wilmar has no seller at the moment and strong support @ low $5.00 so its quite safe to buy for retailers. I wait for the whole day for sellers to come out yesterday but no.... Genting SP good played.... :) caught shorters @ 1.535 and 1.54 I find it funny when people think high oil price is good for economy.... sorry it will make the matter worst.  I had no position overnight today as i think tonight DJ might have some profit taking. Good Luck trade with care.

 

Semb Marine, Semb Corp and Kep Corp are all very weak. 

For Semb Corp --> Every attempt made to rally above $4 is met by sellers shooting it down.

It could fall rapidly to $3 during the next global market sell-off.

Trade with caution on these 3 counters.

A recent rise in WTI crude price seems to have minimal effect on moving these counters up.

:p 

 

risktaker      ( Date: 08-Sep-2011 20:50) Posted: I try to post message yesterday but seems my connection got problem.  Some Tips for you guys ! There are sellers & shorters ... in both Sembcorp and sembmarine counter Today & Yesterday. Yesterday was damn crazy market was recovering and I went to clear up the Semb counters... cos they seems to lag in the market movement but seriously these 2 counters only have sellers and shorters. Whenever I clear the seller Queue the seller will restack or throw to me... all big time seller. " cannot be named" ... so end I throw dump everything down..... fortunately for  me I manage to break even. This 2 stocks got big sellers if sentiment not good sure kenna wack. Trade with care. If i were you i will not buy these 2 counters in near term. Wait till things get settle down a little more. Another counter I played yesterday is CLand which i sold Today :) Do not short.... BB are supporting this counter. I might buy again :P Wilmar has no seller at the moment and strong support @ low $5.00 so its quite safe to buy for retailers. I wait for the whole day for sellers to come out yesterday but no.... Genting SP good played.... :) caught shorters @ 1.535 and 1.54 I find it funny when people think high oil price is good for economy.... sorry it will make the matter worst.  I had no position overnight today as i think tonight DJ might have some profit taking. Good Luck trade with care.

 

I try to post message yesterday but seems my connection got problem. 


Some Tips for you guys !


There are sellers & shorters ... in both Sembcorp and sembmarine counter Today & Yesterday. Yesterday was damn crazy market was recovering and I went to clear up the Semb counters... cos they seems to lag in the market movement but seriously these 2 counters only have sellers and shorters.

Whenever I clear the seller Queue the seller will restack or throw to me... all big time seller. " cannot be named" ... so end I throw dump everything down..... fortunately for  me I manage to break even.
This 2 stocks got big sellers if sentiment not good sure kenna wack. Trade with care. If i were you i will not buy these 2 counters in near term. Wait till things get settle down a little more.

Another counter I played yesterday is CLand which i sold Today :) Do not short.... BB are supporting this counter. I might buy again :P

Wilmar has no seller at the moment and strong support @ low $5.00 so its quite safe to buy for retailers. I wait for the whole day for sellers to come out yesterday but no....

Genting SP good played.... :) caught shorters @ 1.535 and 1.54


I find it funny when people think high oil price is good for economy.... sorry it will make the matter worst.  I had no position overnight today as i think tonight DJ might have some profit taking.
Good Luck trade with care.

 

Luckily close back $3.84, weak today.

 

may be the top people can consider proposing share buy back too ?