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Fellowship of the Shares

Elf, narmag

Re Courage vs STX, personally I prefer CM. If you look at their margins, they have a big buffer (GP margin 62% vs 11.5%) to weather any downturn. I agree, their yields are far better than STX.

Although I did not mention it, CM has a strong cash position from its IPO and will be in a position to capitalise on fleet expansion when the price is right.

 

Hi Elf

Thanks. Appreciate it. Good point.

     for you. 

 

Yo Guys and Elfie,

Thinking of getting China Hongxin and YZJ, is it too late liao? Worried that US may drop tonight to force fed to cut rates again next week.

I also heard that bbs are starting to panic and covering their scripts but they r only buying slowly while waiting for a clearer picture also.

Any advice ? 

 

yeah.. i wish u all the best.. Cheonggggggggggggg arhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

: ))

 

worrying is second guessing. i just follow what my techs show me. if it says run, i'll run. that's why i seldom trade with price targets.

k, gotta wk. not good to be on SJ while wkg. >~< see ya!

 

btw elf.. r u not concern wat if FED dun further cut rate by next week.. de shares.. i presume.. will drop like hell.... moreover.. just day or two b4 FED had meeting to decide whether to cut or not.. financial market will lead their nose by showing them how to move.... cant u worry?

Tis is de reason tat i play intraday at the moment.. cos i dun noe wat will happen next.. super duper volatile..

 

yo elf.. just came back.. mornin entry for sgx at 9.81.. see the resistence high at 9.99. wanted to q at 10.06.. withdraw.. exit at 9.99... haha.. now 10.54..

idesa... must b veri busy counting money.. yesterday short alot i tink.. checkin his account now.. haha..

 

comp jammed couldn't post earlier. not gonna bore with all the TA details but briefly: (huatah??? idesa??? :P)

yzj: vested @ 1.36

sgx: vested @ 10.06.

fyi caveat emptor.

DCA second strike: yzj: 1.1; sgx: 8.8

just in case.

 

For me, I will short the fundamentally better stock which rallies more than the other because of this... 

 

hullo narmag and shplayer (pls correct my perception here if it's wrong):

looking at the FA figures between the two, considering that this is likely a bear market coming, then for safety, one would pick couragemar for one reason alone: dividend yield.

also because the counter appears to be cornered. ie, likely buffered from further falls, unless its top 20 shareholders sell out. not likely since they're old hands who are vested in it personally.

on the other hand, as a trader's counter, STXPO may be better for running fast.

tough call...

 

Shplayer

Thanks for the detailed analysis.  Gave me a better picture. Appreciate your taking the time on this.

 Thanks very much!!

 

narmag,

Hard to say which will be better. Compare the 2 companies

                                                              STX                                   Courage

Gross Profit Margin                               11.5%                                    62%

Net Profit Margin                                   8.7%                                      68%

9 mths 2007 eps US cents                     18.7                                        1.9

NAV US cts                                         85.0                                         9.02

FY06 Div US cts                                   2.3                                           1.41

23 Jan08 Closing Price  S$                    2.37                                          0.30

9 mths 07 P/E                                        8.9 x                                         11.1 x

P/B                                                        1.96 x                                        2.34 x

FY06 Yield                                            1.34%                                       6.6%

(note - USD: S$ - 1.42)

As you can see, CM enjoys exceptionally good  margins. However, based on traditional pricing ratios, STX is a cheaper buy (P/E and P/B).

Historical Yield also shows that CM is more generous.

STX is a bigger and more diversified shipping company with a bigger fleet in bulk, container and tankers whereas CM is only in bulk shipping with about 10 old ships. CM is managed by a team of experienced, entreprenueral old shipping hands  whereas STX is a corporate type management.

Sorry, cannot make a call for you but hope the above information can help you decide based on your investment criteria. 

 

Shorted SIA and BIOSNSOR too.

 

Ucrano...if you are new, I would suggest that you stay in investment with long term view. When you are more experience, then you can think if you want to join in the fun. It can be painful also at times. Nobody can tell you when to get into the mkt, I feel that there will be still some legs down, then consolidate and then uptrend. It's just me view....To short a counter, we would just sell in anticipation that the ahre price will drop later. The if you are happy with the drop, you can then buy back the counter. PLEASE NOTE, all shorting MUST be covered back on the same day, unless you have CFD account with your broker.

 

Hi Master. Considered fairly new in this market. What's the procedure to short the market? As in how do we short the market online?

 

Shplayer - Dont mean to keep for long .. but just hope to get out with lesser loss. 

 

Dun LONG in this mkt sentiment. I had almost used up my trading limit for shorting this morning. SGX short @9.14, COSCO @ 4.27, SYNEAR @ 1.15. Now just sit back and relax.... Unless there is a rebound in the afternoon, if not I am ready for my angpow today. I used to short small time, but today I siow liao, just keep shorting one counter after another when the morning rebound after FED cut rate overnight.

 

Shplayer - Thanks for that.   Between STX PO and CourageMar  if want to keep one, which is better bet?  

 

 

yahyah, pls learn FA from shplayer. he's been my mentor there. :) he can calculate all the fiddly FA stuff such as future earnings, which is off my league yet. immensely useful to learn both TA and FA.

eldarchen...not yet lah...believe i told colorado that already....you survive in this market either by going very short term (intraday) or longer term (at least 3 mths). don't buy for long haul unless sti can sustain above 3,000, on broadbased buying and not just manipulation of singtel/dbs and a few others. >~< damn tricky sti we have now.

huatah, oh yea, elfie drinks like a fish. hehe.

cashiertan, yea, perhaps in future, we shd just aim for the trend, rather than giving any timeline. would cut out secondguessing. am not quite sure if this is wave 4 or 5 tho...but i'm not an expert in wave theory anw. anyhow, we'll let the market do the talking. :)

ok gotta go! *poof*  

 

narmag,

adding to elf''s TA on CourageMar,

BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has been falling from its peak in Oct 07 of 11,000+ to about 8,500 at the beginning of Jan08. Since then, it has plunged to 6,460 in a matter of about 3 weeks.

Whilst earnings for 4Q07 and FY07 will remain strong, the outlook for 2008 is uncertain.