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We are not aiming 50 to 60% return as Ausgroup since the freight rate declining is a fact that we have to face and be realistic. However, the freight rate still maintain higher than 2011 whole year freight rate.
The whole morning can see buy queue was removed suddenly before sell down come to bring down price. BB did it few times to bring down the price and buy up after 20 to 30 mins the sell queue is done.
I believe this approach will continue in early next week and price may be pressured to lower for squeezing weak holders. Expect to see recover in late of next week. NOL will be one of the first to announce 3Q result, last Q is Japan NYK lines and MOL lines. It become we have no reference and no early price pushing at all till 25 Oct.
There is risk and further down trend may involve in next 2 weeks. Whoever cannot take it, better stay away since we are only aiming 20 to 30% gain or 100 to 150% gain in CFD. Anytime, need to top up CFD to prevent margin call. All the best, hope I am right.
considered high vol today
last min over 600 lots done...surely cant be the work of retailers to whacked in at the very last second
May be...
Hihello ( Date: 12-Oct-2012 13:40) Posted:
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just hope q3 earnings is gd, can only bet on tis,,
Cosco price may be higher than NOL since it hold 3 main business containers, bulk carrier and shipbuilding.
But 80 cents of NOL is not going to happen.
But 80 cents of NOL is not going to happen.
Hulumas ( Date: 12-Oct-2012 12:01) Posted:
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No worry, you can have your own view and own direction after looking at information that I post.
All the best.
No sign of moving up yet... no need to put $$$ and hope for the best.
My personal share price evaluation, no matter how, someday NOL price should be 20% lower than COSCO CORP price! I am awaiting for them to buy both shares.
khng2012 ( Date: 12-Oct-2012 07:01) Posted:
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http://www.vhss.de/contex.php
The charter rate of containers vessels. What this tell you? 60 to 70% container vessels are 4250 TEU type which were built and chartered out in 2004 to 2008 with average chartered rate of USD 25000 per day with 5 to 10 years contract.
2008 to 2012 8000 to 18000 TEU high efficiency container vessels are built and purchased and majority are purchased directly and owned by liners like NOL, maesrk and etc instead of charterers due to majority of charterers are in high debt cannot finance money to buy.
Now is 2012 which is 4 to 8 years. All these 4250 TEU are only usd14000 per day and more contract will be expired in 2013 to 2015. What this tell you? The operating cost of a liners like NOL has shifted their major cost from vessels chartered rate to bunker oil. Chartered rate will be cheaper till 2015.
Thing is changed.
The charter rate of containers vessels. What this tell you? 60 to 70% container vessels are 4250 TEU type which were built and chartered out in 2004 to 2008 with average chartered rate of USD 25000 per day with 5 to 10 years contract.
2008 to 2012 8000 to 18000 TEU high efficiency container vessels are built and purchased and majority are purchased directly and owned by liners like NOL, maesrk and etc instead of charterers due to majority of charterers are in high debt cannot finance money to buy.
Now is 2012 which is 4 to 8 years. All these 4250 TEU are only usd14000 per day and more contract will be expired in 2013 to 2015. What this tell you? The operating cost of a liners like NOL has shifted their major cost from vessels chartered rate to bunker oil. Chartered rate will be cheaper till 2015.
Thing is changed.
ok lah easy man, it was meant to b a quote, many thks for the info, u try to post a quote then u wld know wat im saying, cheers yo all n have fun tomr!!!
khng it was meant to b a quote not directed at anyone but dun know y it ended as a post, sorry for the misunderstanding caused,,
2 index. One from drewry and one from this index from china which are reported weekly.
I am not here to create arguing war. You are convinced with my post, you take it and take your own risk.
I am kind too share my research without charging anything. I may be wrong. If you are another 'sgshares', i will just ignore your any post since i want to avoid arguing war here.
I am not here to create arguing war. You are convinced with my post, you take it and take your own risk.
I am kind too share my research without charging anything. I may be wrong. If you are another 'sgshares', i will just ignore your any post since i want to avoid arguing war here.
Hihello ( Date: 12-Oct-2012 04:02) Posted:
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??? I share only. Up to you to decide want to follow. I am not evil but instead i am angle since my recent call in midas ausgroup and alpha natural resource all make substantial profit. I hope i am right too in NOL.
I am small ant not going to affect anything.
I am small ant not going to affect anything.
Hihello ( Date: 12-Oct-2012 04:26) Posted:
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i know wat u r trying to do,, dun play play
Hihello ( Date: 12-Oct-2012 04:02) Posted:
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i know wat u r trying to do,, dun play play
Hihello ( Date: 12-Oct-2012 04:02) Posted:
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khng: do u mean u Only rely on the chinese shipping website mention below for the shipping rate?
Hope my analysis can assist other as well. Recently, got few successful cases which let me become confidence, worry if it is just for luck only. Hope it won't since i want my success in investment is due to my analysis skill instead of luck
agreed, a gd sum up of the lng, bulk n container shipping situation,, thks, u hav a gd analytical skills, can huat in any field,
One of the trend is people moving to choose refrigerator container to transport fresh fruit and fresh food since it doesn't require huge volume as traditional refrigerated vessel. It become more and more welcome now.
Actually, container volumes never go down since 2008-2009 crisis, it is going up. The problem is over-supply in vessel and price fighting. As you can see now, container liners are doing well to form society or cluband control each other price to prevent price fall again. This is much different with oil tanker, LNG tanker and bulk carrier who doesn't form any society or club because the nature of its business and too many owners which are hard to form. Actually, Container liners are the only one really can work together to stabilize the freight rate and benefit each other.
Hihello ( Date: 11-Oct-2012 22:32) Posted:
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yup thks!
just my guess> > there is also a possibility that the major shipping liners could " reduce" e teu/refer freight rate to ward off any potential entry in the future, n dat could be another condolidatn phase for shipping stocks,