Osim Intl   

OSIM

ya never trust the ang mo, they only care abt rip-off our money!!

 

Perhaps foreigners are really smarter than us locals, that's something we must accept if it is indeed the truth, and  we must 'then watch out'! Otherwise, we may be prone to swallow a lot of 'unsavoury stuff', making locals look silly.

On the TA vs FA issue, perhaps it should be enough to note that whereas FA tells us what the market should do, TA simply tells you what the market IS doing. And that I think,  makes TA the supremo of  trading tools and FA can then be a supporting tool at best.

 

Osim has crossed the lower bollinger band. It will probably continue heading south

 

guess the support line for OSIM is $1.3, once it broken then mean big trouble!!!

 

It just means that the "foreigners" are able to outsmart or "swindle" our S'porean companies.  If the long term prospects or synergy is that good why would they sell.  Furthermore, how long does one expect to suffer loss before turning the company acquired  around. When a share stagnates for some time with low volume and without any fresh lead, it can't be a sign of takeoff.

 

shplayer, you are right. Innopac is another company.

 

Hehehe...

Last time I used to rely on analysts reports, especially those from big famous companies.... after a while I realised that their analysis made no positive impact at all in my investments. So I decided to chuck them and apply my own analysis.

No... wasn't caught by Osim because I avoid shares with low volumes. Osim is one of those. Lucky me.... :)

 

singaporegal,

hope you were not caught with this.

History has shown that Spore companies are not very good at M&A of companies larger than them...case in point...NOL takeover of APL. They just don't have the expertise to smoothly integrate the acquisition.

Furthermore, OSIM is very good in the regional market. Their expansion in the region was measured and prudent in maximising the benefits and minimising the risks.



However, their venture into the US market, a market they have limited or no experience, by taking a big bite into Brookstone was, at best, very risky and they are now suffering the indigestion.



I think it will take them some time to understand and learn the intricicies of the US market place.



As for the analysts, tsk, tsk tsk, I am surprised, sporegal, someone with your experience, places so much credance in what they say.

 

Wow... major drop in Osim.

About the analysts... I have found it better to rely on my own analysis.

 

Oh, if  "consumer sentiment in those markets was affected by the negative publicity generated by inferior products copied from OSIM by other manufacturers" , I wonder what will happen if  " consumer sentiments in those market is affected by SUPERIOR products copied from Osim by other manufacturers ". 

 

Have you ever wondered why analysts always tell you to sell after the prices have gone down and not before ?

I was always negatively surprised by the strong performances in all the previous quarters and positively not surprise by this one.

 

Citigroup says it has lowered its rating to "sell" from "buy" and cut its target price to $1.62 from $2.48 after the health care company posted disappointing results for the third quarter.



Citigroup said in a note to clients: "We were negatively surprised by the weak performance in the third quarter which, we understand, may spill over to the fourth quarter."



OSIM's earnings in its key North Asian markets were surprisingly weak during the quarter because consumer sentiment in those markets was affected by the negative publicity generated by inferior products copied from OSIM by other manufacturers, Citigroup said.



"We think market confidence may fade. We have cut our 2006-2008 earnings estimates by 33-36%. Accordingly, we downgrade OSIM from 'buy' to 'sell'," it said.

 

DBSV said it has cut its target price to 1.84 from $2.12 and downgraded its rating on the stock to "fully valued" from "buy" after the healthcare company posted disappointing third quarter results. 



"While the loss from Brookstone was expected, the 5% yoy drop in revenue in North Asia, its largest market, was not," DBS said in a note to clients.



"Same store sales (in North Asia) fell 11% yoy and 40% qoq, as the group was hit by negative media publicity and consumer sentiment resulting from the inferior product quality of copycats and imitation products," DBS said.



"As it is uncertain whether Osim can successfully defend its market position and perception in this key market, we have cut our growth forecasts for North Asia. In total, we have lowered 2006 and 2007 earnings forecasts by 11% and 13%, respectively," it said.



Nonetheless, DBS still expects OSIM's net profit to improve to $56.7m this year, and to rise further to $66.3m next year and to $75.1m in 2008.

 

    OSIM is surprisingly resilient. I expected it to close 20% lower from yesterday's closing price or around $1.55. Should be punished.



    Wonder who are the buyers who have such strong faith in OSIM. SGX should grill the company why it never provided profit warning to forewarn investors. 



     We criticised Bio-Treat and thought that only China companies would do this sort of things. Now, OSIM is our Singapore brand. Sigh!!!    

 

we'll wait & see.

cheers

 

aya...OSIM mkt share will diminish wan lah for sure...got brand like OTO and OTN...etc in the market competition dont think itself the BRAND is worth much with profits starting to fall..so many branches internationally doesn't warranty u hv quality mkt share...anyone can just come in the mkt...barrier of entry is rather low leh....

 

Agreed.  The price has dropped more than 19% on the reopen, time for investor yearning for good fundamental stock at bargain price to get some early Christmas gifts.  With global economy looking positive, Christmas & bonuses round the corner as well as company continuous pipeline of innovative healthy lifestyle products through expanding network of 645 outlets spanning more than 150 cities in 26 countries, the outlook for next qtr shd turnaround substantially. 4Q has been a traditional profitable qtr for Brookstone, this trend is expected to continue. Financially the Group cash position remained strong, fundamentally the Group continue to reinvent itself to stay ahead.

If you shop for this counter, must prepare to hold out till Christmas to get the valuable gift from Santa.  

 

 

OSIM 3Q revenue growth is good, it's 35% increase! I am not sure how they calculate the share of (loss)/profit of associates & joint venture, it is -56.9, minus! end up, net profit loss of 87%!

Would the price drop heavily like this early May ? from 2.1 to 1.45? For me, I think this is a good stock. I would cash in if they drop to 1.45! They are so scared to stop trade for half day today, haiih... they create "fear" atmosphere in the market themselves ... why there is no profit warning again?!

 

Dear veterans,



OSIM px has been climbing up 13% for past few days.....



Wats ur take  on this  ? TA? FA?

 

It expects to sustain growth in sales and net profit of 20-30% per year over the long term, supported by its global expansion drive and the launch of new products, a senior executive said.



"We are still guiding our long-term earnings growth at 20-30% every year. We have been growing in excess of 30%for the last six years, both at the revenue and profit line," OSIM chief financial officer Peter Lee told XFN-Asia in a recent interview.



Lee said OSIM was planning to expand its global network to 3,000 outlets by 2013 from 1,060 now.



The company had originally aimed to have 1,000 outlets by 2008 but the target was hit two years early, in part because of its acquisition of US-based Brookstone last October. Of OSIM's outlets around the world at the end of June, 614 were OSIM outlets, 307 were Brookstone outlets and 139 were GNC outlets operated by unit Global Active.



OSIM continues to see expansion opportunities in Asia, particularly in China and India. OSIM has, through a franchisee, 30 stores in India.



"China is still growing," Lee said. OSIM now has 180 stores in China and is planning to add 40-50 stores a year, he said. 



The company is also relying on franchisees in tapping the European market. It has stores in the UK, Spain and Italy. OSIM is also aiming to expand its distribution network in the US, with Brookstone adding 15-20 new outlets every year.



The US company, after bringing in a new management team led by chief executive Lou Mancini, registered same-store growth in the second quarter, ending five consecutive quarters of contraction.



"With the new CEO, we are beginning to see a more sales-oriented culture, " Lee said. Lee said that Brookstone's business was highly seasonal, largely because the company was not as focussed on sales and marketing before the management change, with the bulk of earnings derived from year-end sales.



OSIM could generate sales of about $3b a year by 2013 if it manages to grow its sales by an average of 25% a year in the next seven years and hits its target of 3,000 outlets worldwide, Lee said. Within the next three years, OSIM should have sales of $1.0b annually.



In the first half of this year, OSIM's net profit fell to $13.72m from despite sales having grown to $338.57m. Its earnings were hindered by losses at Brookstone in the first quarter, but improvements are expected as Brookstone sustains its growth momentum and OSIM launches new products.



OSIM recently launched an MP3 player with a massage pad called iGogo.



Through its sponsorship of the IMF and World Bank meetings here next week, it hopes to showcase its products to some 16,000 government officials and corporate executives attending the events.



"We look more towards building the brand globally," Lee said.