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Fellowship of the Shares

I agree with Mani on the dangers of averaging down especially if one is new into the stock market. The big danger is that people ASSUME that the stock price will rise again in the future.

Here are just a few examples of stocks that didn't rise after a big crash - Creative, Chartered, Longcheer, Osim



 

 

Personally, I avoid warrants play. CFD is so much better to play... 

 

Speaking of warrants, can someone please advise me on how to trade? I understand the theoretical part, for e.g, call warrant = right but not obligated to buy the mother stock at predetermined price before a certain date.

But the operational part i don't really know. For eg, now, when i log into poems to look at yangzijiang now, price is $1.45 per mother share. One of the warrants reads YangzijiaBNPeCW80808 at 17cents. CW=call warrant, BNP=warrant issued by BNP, and i have to exercise right (but not obligated) before 80808=8Aug2008. 

My question is: If i were to buy 1000call warrants @ 17c a piece, means I can buy 1000mother at $1.45 a piece before 8aug? I will make $ if before 8aug the mother is above $1.45 but lose money if it is below $1.45 BEFORE 8AUG? Thanks.   

 

Elf....I hope you are not taking my proposal seriously....I was trying to cheer you up! Yes, I am happily married with a 4 yr old boy. Life is so ever unpredicting, just like in the stock mkt. So let the nature takes its own course, you will not be too stressful in life. I wish you happiness....if time permits later of the day, I may like to do a post-mortem with all of you for the stock mkt's recent performance and reaction! Cheers.

 

Markets have never been predictable, otherwise there will not much losing.

To treat the market as what it is, one must not be opiniated or philosophical.

For example, one can say, since stocks are 'bound to go back up' later, one should hold tight and buy some more. And 'as long as one doesn't sell the stock, one has not really lost', all is only on paper.

But is the loss 'only on paper'?

 

when the market is bad and unpredictable, many people sound so philosophical.

 

Scalping is not a worthwhile activity, unless the scalpler has a great edge in already knowing the outcome, eg those close to or in the trading pits, and who can be reasoanbly sure of gaining by doing it on a long term basis.

Apart from the risk/reward considerations, any person other than those mentioned are really playing with crocodiles just for a small thrill but not profitably feasible...

 

just my opinion, but i wouldn't play sti warrants anymore. for one thing, with only 30 component stocks, it becomes much easier to manipulate the index, so gotta be wary of sudden dips and spikes. HSI warrants may be a better idea. havent went there yet tho; new field to me. am focusing long term to cut out all the headaches of having to scalp short term in a volatile market.

averaging down can work; but it must be done only on some counters, and takes a certain amount of calmness to do it. you must know both techs and fundamentals if you want to average down. plus assuming you have spare funds and didn't whack all at one shot.

eh...eldarchen, you have got to make the buy/sell call yourself leh....mon to wed is definitely gonna be volatile, so i won't even bother predicting; gotta go by live play on the specific day itself. do take care and glue your eyes to the screen. :P

 

Yesterday's "New Paper" carries an article about people having huge stock market losses...

It also mentioned people averaging down to try and recover their losses...
In the first place, I am sure they did a lot of averaging down all the way down.

Thus, averaging down must never, never be done...

The simple solution is to simple sell a losing stock...
To 'quarrel with the market' is not the way to go...

Many, many will agree that The "Genie Tutorials"(click to see) are a lifetime guide to lasting stock market wisdom and a blessing to all who have it and follow its teachings religiously.

 

Thanks for the help Elf,

Guess I would need to chop off YZJ and Yanlord on Monday to be safe or should I wait till Wed ?.... Sigh, can't even move into a put warrant in case of a fed cut rally again, mkt r so volatile these days that we can't even be sure that there will be a rate cut rally

Kk will track wlpr on Monday to see if it can clear, if it does, then it might be a hope ; )

btw thanks for your help again and I can see many of our brothers here think the same way too , Keep it up ! We need u here !

 

eldarchen:

as said previously, yzj needed to break ~1.45 on increasing volume. friday was crucial for it. it finally managed to clear 1.46 (was quite surprised), but it was on a volume dip. hence it is not a true breakout yet. hasn't crossed a buy signal yet (refer to my post on yzj thread for the technical setup for this counter, if you're interested in learning). see if williams can clear at least -44.

if you're going long term, prepare for dip to 1.1.

overall, market IS weak. think that may be the fifth wave already. Gold is the weathervane--i didn't expect it to retrace upward so fast (such taht i didn't even manage to collect enough!! kbkbkbb). which is not a good sign: means big investors are fleeing equities, ie, higher probability of a collapse coming. I expect the Fed to cut on 29/30, but i do not think markets will sustain a rally.

QDII funds: rem that china fund managers are newbies to the picture. They may very well get suckered by the more experienced BBs from other countries. China fund managers lost 5bil or something like that in the recent crash. That was why they started allowing QDII funds into other countries. You may see a BB cross-fire scenario on the china plays soon---foreign BBs offload them to inexperienced china fund managers (brief rally). then global macrotrend shows recession, china fund managers may panic and sell, causing a drastic drop.

if you play china counters, either scalp, or go very, very long term. They are cowboy counters. growth counters are like that.

yanlord same thing. Needs to break 2.78 for chance of further upside. short scalp: if it gaps up on opening monday, the likely max will be ~20c from the opening px.

aiyah. long story short: if you feel confident, go in. if you're gonna worry, stay out. no money vested = no money lost. rem that. think long term.

caveat emptor applies as usual.

 

thanks very much for all the encouragement, guys. much appreciated. :) altho, haha, think elfie does need to take care of herself. being too trusting is never a good idea. >~<

CWquah, love the way you put it. yep, will try to stay positive.  

idesa... (-_-").....thought you were married already? stay faithful!  sigh. have had bad experiences with men. no more, man. (literally! hahahha. pun.)

tradechancellor, yes. As Edmund Hilary had said, "It is not the mountain we conquer, but ourselves." From my own experience, it is this: you keep thinking and thinking, and low leads to lower. Leading to a sense of inadequacy/guilt/hatred/or whatever negative emotions. This becomes a self perpetuating cycle, and sometimes, a self-fulfilling prophecy. Negativity has a way of feeding on itself, and consuming the mind and the person. Remember: we are what we think we are. In that sense, sometimes, deny reality. Because in the end, there are many versions of reality, and it is what you choose to believe in. In short: break the loop in your mind.   

which links to onesharer's question. (elf is a freethinker, but have read buddhism, the bible and some of the old religions scriptures): how i'd personally interprete it:

"the truth will set you free."

"i am the way, the truth, the life"

one more thing to remember: Man was given free will, so that he may choose to believe. To turn to god, or devil, or whatever.

Like what i said, reality has many versions (kinda like the way none of us can predict the stock market): so it is what you choose to believe in. that when, all alone, with nothing and no one, in silence, what does your heart say? That is the truth. Your truth. of self, of life, of God (if you had chosen to believe).

And freedom then comes not from the truth, but from complete acceptance of it. Acceptance that yes, this is me, flawed as i am; yes, this is life, flawed as it is. Yes, this is God.

Stripped from all the false prophets of the material world, all the white noise of the human world, what do you see, what do you choose?

and then. In perfect faith and perfect love. The choice to believe.

This is what sets one free.

elves, for the dang life of them, will always tend to the light. that's why they attract darkness like nobody's business. It is a curse, but also a blessing. The heart of a rose is always darkness. but rather than running away, and denying the darkness within and trying to be only light (which is essentially a denial of the full self), the embracing of darkness is what gives one strength, courage, conviction. In a way that few others will possess. And therein lies the accursed ability to help others. (cos it also means that you'd always be in pain).  

Only shallow people are always happy. Do i want to be like them? Given a choice, of course. But there isn't a choice for me. So. why not just accept, and fully come into my own. elfie is a wild flower. she will always suffer the storms and wild weathers.

but God will never let his flowers die.

"The truth will set you free."

it is about choice, and acceptance.

kinda rambly, but yea, that sums it up for me. (note, i'm NOT a christian or anything!)

 

 

What a Wonderful World !

 

 

i wouldn't want my the other half keep talking about stocks....

 

Please cheer up! You have many friends here!

 

Elf, will you marry me? We can talk about stock mkt day and night!

 

Elf,

I think it's no mean feat that you've actually really found your true self, at the ripe 'young' age of 27!

Kinda glad to see that you do realise you have the ability to help others - I think that goes a long way in helping one see things from a more balanced perspective. Living for oneself is boring; living for others gives life a lot more meaning.

If we seriously think about our own life not being worth living or simply a meaningless mundane existence that ends in nothing, what should the people suffering from famine daily, without shelter or security, think of their lives?

I sure hope you can continue to see the lighter side of life. Just like markets, life has its ups and downs. But eventually it's always up in the long term. Remember that. :-)

 

 

 

 

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Elf, appreciate that you are so open about your inner self. I myself can connect about the part about thinking of life and death. I am not an expert on psychology, but I feel that the "feeling of emotional low" or depression may not be strongly due to situational circumstances although circumstances still do play a part. I seem to think that the emotional lowness part is due to the main reason of thinking too much into our own thoughts or why certain events happen to us, for eg for me, it would be "why can't i even be an average soldier and complete a certain part of the training program [years ago]?" Basically i think i'm hampered by thinking too much in the negative (in chinese zhuan niu jiao jian) which lead me towards a depressive state. The greatest war I'm fighting is in my head, the thought processes. I might think its the case for many people too (heh, i hope i'm not incoherent).   

 

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