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Stocks: Ready for a comeback?
On China -- aren't there signs that China is rebounding?
China is moving to a slower growth plane, say 5%-6%...???????.
teeth53 thot - As always, be prepare for thew roller coaster ride...
On China, was think this MS market's strategist, cannot read China. Mr Xi Jinping mind.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/08/22/investing/premarkets/index.html
The mkts have experienced a string of losses over the past few trading sessions. On Wednesday, the release of minutes from the latest U.S. Federal Reserve meeting pushed stocks lower.
Investors have been in a bearish mood as they consider the possibility that the Fed will soon start pulling back on its massive bond-purchase program -- also known as quantitative easing (QE).
" Signal that policymakers are willing to consider a taper in the near term, but they need decent data - in particular employment data - to support their decision." Deutsche Bank economists Jim Reid and Gael Gunubu.
Related: Fear & Greed Index is in EXTREME FEAR
Investors will continue looking Thursday for hints as to when exactly the Fed will start " tapering" its bond-buying program, as central bankers from across the globe gather for an economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. For symposium is especially significant since Janet Yellen, a leading candidate for the top job at Fed will be in attendance.
" If Yellen is indeed chosen to take the reins next year, it will be up to her to manage the Fed's move on monetary policy normalization. With that in mind, traders will be keen to hear what she has to say on the matter of QE 'tapering'," he said.
Investors also await a weekly report on initial jobless claims from the Department of Labor, which is set to come out at 8:30 a.m. ET.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/08/22/emerging-markets-ruchir-sharma/?iid=HP_LN
Ruchir Sharma, the top emerging market's strategist at Morgan Stanley, saw it all coming. For a long-time, Sharma's bearish calls were overshadowed by Goldman Sachs' Jim O'Neill, (former emerging mkt strategist and China perma-bull who left the bank earlier this year.)
But in his book, Breakout Nations, which came out early last year, Sharma said the notion that China and other developing nations would soon overtake the West as the drivers of the world economy was bogus. On Wednesday.
The Morgan Stanley (MS) strategist says he thinks the emerging market sell off won't end anytime soon.
You have long been one of the few emerging market bears. Are you pleased that your dire predictions are coming true?
I think I was bearish, but only relatively. The optimism around emerging markets reached crazy levels back in 2009 and 2010. There was this general view that all the emerging markets will rise, and that the West was in permanent decline.
But aren't there signs that China is rebounding?
My view is that China is moving to a slower growth plane, say 5%-6%, and that it will move to that trend line in the next year or so. That's not a hard landing, but I don't think the market has priced that in.
How real are Brazil's problems?
I don't see Brazil, or Russia or South America for that matter, growing faster than the U.S. over the next three to five years.
Agree that HSI 19000 will be a good buy for HongKong stocks. Today's closing of 21895.40 is about midway from many indicators that measures its strength for the year. I believe that if it falls below 20300, it would be a good time to start to collect HK stocks. Albeit it might go further from that, but when it is around 20K, its RSI should be around 20 or lower and presenting good buying opportunity.
ruready ( Date: 22-Aug-2013 17:44) Posted:
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ruready ( Date: 22-Aug-2013 17:44) Posted:
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2013-08-21 23:02:00
倘 跌 穿 萬 九 關 ， 是 撈 底 時 ？
恒 指 仍 然 在 下 跌 ， 但 恐 慌 程 度 已 有 改 善 ， 內 地 A股 已 站 穩 ； A股 站 穩 助 恒 指 由 低 位 反 彈 約 200點 ， 收 市 時 只 跌 152點 。
昨 日 我 已 經 說 過 ， 印 尼 股 市 、 印 尼 貨 幣 幣 值 的 下 跌 ， 不 是 最 近 幾 日 突 然 發 生 的 事 ， 為 甚 麼 前 日 股 市 會 突 然 急 跌 ？ 為 甚 麼 昨 日 多 家 報 章 ， 會 同 時 刊 登 印 尼 盾 滙 價 創 新 低 、 股 市 下 跌 的 新 聞 ？ 說 穿 了 ， 是 西 方 大 通 訊 社 向 全 世 界 傳 媒 發 新 聞 稿 ， 傳 媒 收 到 新 聞 ， 照 登 不 誤 。
今 日 ， 國 際 大 鱷 的 手 法 ， 已 到 了 出 神 入 化 的 境 界 ， 可 以 通 過 信 貸 評 級 機 構 創 造 出 歐 債 危 機 ， 可 以 通 過 西 方 通 訊 社 ， 製 造 新 亞 洲 金 融 風 暴 危 機 的 感 覺 ， 我 們 絕 對 要 打 醒 精 神 應 付 。
兩 年 前 ， 許 多 基 金 銷 售 人 員 都 努 力 推 銷 新 興 市 場 的 基 金 ， 也 吸 引 不 少 人 購 買 ， 大 鱷 炒 高 了 新 興 市 場 股 市 ， 飽 食 遠 颺 ， 然 後 再 踩 多 一 腳 ， 這 是 大 鱷 不 斷 重 複 應 用 的 賺 錢 方 法 。
暫 時 而 言 ， 大 鱷 仍 無 法 在 中 國 興 風 作 浪 。 道 理 很 簡 單 ， 因 為 中 國 不 論 人 民 幣 的 買 賣 、 A股 的 買 賣 ， 都 是 封 閉 的 ， 不 自 由 ， 大 鱷 進 不 了 。 中 國 政 府 也 早 在 2009年 年 底 ， 就 自 己 引 爆 急 升 一 倍 以 上 的 股 市 ， 成 為 全 世 界 最 早 退 市 的 國 家 。 目 前 ， A股 估 值 很 低 ， 沽 空 也 沒 有 肉 吃 了 ； 港 股 受 A股 所 累 ， 目 前 估 值 也 相 當 低 ， 與 1997年 的 瘋 狂 程 度 相 比 ， 差 很 遠 ， 因 此 大 鱷 來 香 港 沽 空 ， 也 只 能 搞 起 震 倉 的 效 果 ， 絕 對 不 可 能 重 演 97至 98年 那 場 金 融 風 暴 。 是 的 ， 如 果 目 前 恒 指 是 4萬 點 ， 我 就 會 很 擔 心 風 暴 重 演 ； 但 目 前 恒 指 不 足 22000點 ， 能 跌 多 少 ？ 若 能 跌 破 19000點 ， 將 是 難 得 的 趁 低 吸 納 機 會 。
倘 跌 穿 萬 九 關 ， 是 撈 底 時 ？
恒 指 仍 然 在 下 跌 ， 但 恐 慌 程 度 已 有 改 善 ， 內 地 A股 已 站 穩 ； A股 站 穩 助 恒 指 由 低 位 反 彈 約 200點 ， 收 市 時 只 跌 152點 。
昨 日 我 已 經 說 過 ， 印 尼 股 市 、 印 尼 貨 幣 幣 值 的 下 跌 ， 不 是 最 近 幾 日 突 然 發 生 的 事 ， 為 甚 麼 前 日 股 市 會 突 然 急 跌 ？ 為 甚 麼 昨 日 多 家 報 章 ， 會 同 時 刊 登 印 尼 盾 滙 價 創 新 低 、 股 市 下 跌 的 新 聞 ？ 說 穿 了 ， 是 西 方 大 通 訊 社 向 全 世 界 傳 媒 發 新 聞 稿 ， 傳 媒 收 到 新 聞 ， 照 登 不 誤 。
今 日 ， 國 際 大 鱷 的 手 法 ， 已 到 了 出 神 入 化 的 境 界 ， 可 以 通 過 信 貸 評 級 機 構 創 造 出 歐 債 危 機 ， 可 以 通 過 西 方 通 訊 社 ， 製 造 新 亞 洲 金 融 風 暴 危 機 的 感 覺 ， 我 們 絕 對 要 打 醒 精 神 應 付 。
兩 年 前 ， 許 多 基 金 銷 售 人 員 都 努 力 推 銷 新 興 市 場 的 基 金 ， 也 吸 引 不 少 人 購 買 ， 大 鱷 炒 高 了 新 興 市 場 股 市 ， 飽 食 遠 颺 ， 然 後 再 踩 多 一 腳 ， 這 是 大 鱷 不 斷 重 複 應 用 的 賺 錢 方 法 。
暫 時 而 言 ， 大 鱷 仍 無 法 在 中 國 興 風 作 浪 。 道 理 很 簡 單 ， 因 為 中 國 不 論 人 民 幣 的 買 賣 、 A股 的 買 賣 ， 都 是 封 閉 的 ， 不 自 由 ， 大 鱷 進 不 了 。 中 國 政 府 也 早 在 2009年 年 底 ， 就 自 己 引 爆 急 升 一 倍 以 上 的 股 市 ， 成 為 全 世 界 最 早 退 市 的 國 家 。 目 前 ， A股 估 值 很 低 ， 沽 空 也 沒 有 肉 吃 了 ； 港 股 受 A股 所 累 ， 目 前 估 值 也 相 當 低 ， 與 1997年 的 瘋 狂 程 度 相 比 ， 差 很 遠 ， 因 此 大 鱷 來 香 港 沽 空 ， 也 只 能 搞 起 震 倉 的 效 果 ， 絕 對 不 可 能 重 演 97至 98年 那 場 金 融 風 暴 。 是 的 ， 如 果 目 前 恒 指 是 4萬 點 ， 我 就 會 很 擔 心 風 暴 重 演 ； 但 目 前 恒 指 不 足 22000點 ， 能 跌 多 少 ？ 若 能 跌 破 19000點 ， 將 是 難 得 的 趁 低 吸 納 機 會 。
lol...how u manage to find this picture
Peter_Pan ( Date: 22-Aug-2013 16:01) Posted:
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Eurozone business activity picked up sharply in August, hitting a 26-month high point as the economy climbed out of a record recession.
The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index compiled by Markit Economics jumped to 51.7 points for August from 50.5 in July, pushing further beyond the 50-points boom-or-bust line.
The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index compiled by Markit Economics jumped to 51.7 points for August from 50.5 in July, pushing further beyond the 50-points boom-or-bust line.
Lai! Lai! Lai! Everybody takes one!
bishan22 ( Date: 22-Aug-2013 15:49) Posted:
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Remember to distribute green kueh again. Lately eaten too much red eggs......... Huat huat.
Peter_Pan ( Date: 22-Aug-2013 15:33) Posted:
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HSI turns ard in the green and European markets open in the positive.
Tomorrow onwards should see nice nice rally.
As quoted from a finance friend of mine: " The effect of QE is contrary to what most people think. Rather than increasing the flow of money in the economy, it actually leads to asset bubbles in many areas. What really happens is an environment where the discount rate becomes very low because of the influx of money. Hence many asset groups seem to experience an era of new record valuations.
In my opinion, even though the above is true, I still believe that the economy has benefitted from QE. Some of our STI stocks and most of other SG-listed stocks are actually priced correctly and in fact still undervalued even at the 3400 level. However with easy money from QE marking up the prices of our STI stocks and some other stocks, a correction is inevitable when QE starts scaling back. The global stock markets have been addicted to QE and any rise is probably attributed to " easy money" and not so much emphasis on fundamentals.
Scaling back and eventual tapering of QE when done correctly, slowly and gradually is not a bad thing in my opinion. As the economy recovers on a larger scale, with actual growth, demand and supply of goods and services, companies and consumers alike will benefit greatly. And with proper focus on the earnings and fundamentals of stocks, any rise then in the price is probably more sustainable.
I feel, the recent correction though painful, is a healthy one for the sustianable long run. As long as earnings are visible and steady in the long run to come, and not taking on too much uncessary debt, these companies are definitely worth to take a look as long-term investments. I shall not rush in to invest yet, but I feel is about time to collect the stocks of these companies cheap. Shall stay at the sideline first. If cheap becomes cheaper, pricing is definitely more attractive for sure. Please do one own's due intelligence before investing or trading. =)
its holding quite well at the moment. today quite flatline, didnt taper down like last few days. if theres a technical rebound shd be a good time to sell. if it finishes with a hammer candlestick.
however if it breaks, we are looking at 2946 and 2699. worst case scenario.
accumulated a bit today.
bishan22 ( Date: 22-Aug-2013 10:34) Posted:
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Trading central:
Last done price below bollinger band
Our preference: Short positions below 3210 with targets @ 3060 & 2975 in extension.
RSI is below 30 capped by a bearish
Band.
If Sti breaks 3060, next support is
2975.
Last done price below bollinger band
Our preference: Short positions below 3210 with targets @ 3060 & 2975 in extension.
RSI is below 30 capped by a bearish
Band.
If Sti breaks 3060, next support is
2975.
Historical STI Performance by Month Since 1988
| Average Percentage Gain | Number of Negative Months | Number of Positive Months | |
| January | 1.15% | 10 | 15 |
| February | 0.91% | 14 | 12 |
| March | 0.47% | 9 | 17 |
| April | 2.74% | 8 | 17 |
| May | -0.21% | 11 | 14 |
| June | 0.38% | 12 | 13 |
| July | 1.56% | 11 | 14 |
| August | -2.81% | 19 | 6 |
| September | -1.31% | 12 | 13 |
| October | 0.95% | 10 | 15 |
| November | 1.59% | 10 | 15 |
| December | 2.75% | 7 | 18 |
Source: Straits Times Index to Fall Under Curse of August
August is only mid way through. Buy at your own risk!!!
Historical STI Performance by Month Since 1988
| Average Percentage Gain | Number of Negative Months | Number of Positive Months | |
| January | 1.15% | 10 | 15 |
| February | 0.91% | 14 | 12 |
| March | 0.47% | 9 | 17 |
| April | 2.74% | 8 | 17 |
| May | -0.21% | 11 | 14 |
| June | 0.38% | 12 | 13 |
| July | 1.56% | 11 | 14 |
| August | -2.81% | 19 | 6 |
| September | -1.31% | 12 | 13 |
| October | 0.95% | 10 | 15 |
| November | 1.59% | 10 | 15 |
| December | 2.75% | 7 | 18 |
Source: < a href=&http://quot http://www.galatico.com/straits-times-index-to-fall-under-curse-of-august/" > Straits Times Index to Fall Under Curse of August< /a>
August is only mid way through. Buy at your own risk!!!
A sub-index measuring new orders rose to a four-mth high of 50.5 in Aug from 46.6 in July. But the sub-index on new export orders edged lower in a reminder of weak global demand.
The employment sub-index of the flash PMI also picked up in August, but still hovered below the 50 watershed line.
"This is mainly driven by the initial filtering-through of recent fine-tuning measures and companies' restocking activities, despite the continuous external weakness," said Hongbin Qu, chief China economist at HSBC.
"We expect further filtering-through, which is likely to deliver some upside surprises to China's growth in the coming months."
The flash HSBC PMI, compiled by Markit Economics Research, is the earliest available indicator of mthly activity in the Chinese economy, and tends to focus more on small to mid-sized firms in the private sector.
NO QUICK RECOVERY IN SIGHT.....?. As HSBC PMI index rose to 50.1 from 47.7.
teeth53 thot - to early to buy such stories...happi speculating...
The employment sub-index of the flash PMI also picked up in August, but still hovered below the 50 watershed line.
"This is mainly driven by the initial filtering-through of recent fine-tuning measures and companies' restocking activities, despite the continuous external weakness," said Hongbin Qu, chief China economist at HSBC.
"We expect further filtering-through, which is likely to deliver some upside surprises to China's growth in the coming months."
The flash HSBC PMI, compiled by Markit Economics Research, is the earliest available indicator of mthly activity in the Chinese economy, and tends to focus more on small to mid-sized firms in the private sector.
NO QUICK RECOVERY IN SIGHT.....?. As HSBC PMI index rose to 50.1 from 47.7.
teeth53 thot - to early to buy such stories...happi speculating...
GorgeousOng ( Date: 22-Aug-2013 09:56) Posted:
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Dow future down 29 to 14,818.
Asia shares decline on China manufacturing data.
Asia shares decline on China manufacturing data.