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Why Peik Chek?? It is going up
Octavia ( Date: 11-Jul-2013 16:26) Posted:
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Dik....AMEN!!
GorgeousOng ( Date: 11-Jul-2013 16:23) Posted:
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Pek jik....lol
halleluyah ( Date: 11-Jul-2013 16:13) Posted:
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I need a shoulder...
You are the man men !!!!
halleluyah ( Date: 11-Jul-2013 16:13) Posted:
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no sign of u-turn . waiting for result announcement tonight.
I think what Bro Peter has meant is that he dumped too early only to realize later that the buyer who has been slowly accumulating this morning is Macquarie? Or is there another meaning?? lol..
CSH123 ( Date: 11-Jul-2013 15:41) Posted:
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0.87-0.875 now
halleluyah ( Date: 11-Jul-2013 12:34) Posted:
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The bears have worked hard these 10 days or so. Time for them to hibernate and the bulls to take over??
15 cents, intraday bro?
Peter_Pan ( Date: 11-Jul-2013 15:27) Posted:
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What's wrong with that? Macq?? Anyone can enlighten? Tq
Peter_Pan ( Date: 11-Jul-2013 15:27) Posted:
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You mean Macquarie is buying up?
Peter_Pan ( Date: 11-Jul-2013 15:27) Posted:
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I already dumped her...buyer is macq...jialat!
| Vard – How bad will today’s results be? | ||||||||||
Vard Holdings is reporting its 2Q13 after market today. The company had issued a profit warning on 1 July, which has sent the stock plunging 23.4% in ten days and to its lowest since October 2011 yesterday. A day after Vard issued their profit warning, Macquarie Equities Research (MER) released a research note to provide further clarity on the news.[break} What exactly happened? Vard's senior management team based in Norway reviewed of the " outsourcing yards" in Brazil where Vard had outsourced the 4 old vessel orders for hull manufacturing. Seemingly, the project had fallen into higher cost overruns than what the management had thought earlier. Given the " cost plus" outsourcing contracts, Vard had to take the hit to its profit. Why now? What changed since the management gave out new delivery plan only 6 weeks back? Only 6 weeks back, during the 1Q13 results presentation, management had chalked out a new delivery schedule for the 5 vessels under construction in Brazil. One of them has been delivered while the other 4 are scheduled to be delivered in 3Q13, 1Q14, 1Q14 and 3Q14, respectively. The cost overruns on this project over the last 6 weeks have come as a big surprise to the management too. Auditors have asked the management to include the " entire presumptive losses" on this project in 2Q13. How much are the losses from these 4 vessels? MER thinks it's around NOK140m. The build price of the vessels was NOK1500m (for 4 vessels). Vard was supposed to make around 10% margin on these. So overall, it seems Vard has given up its NOK150m earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) on these 4 vessels and made around NOK140m loss. So what would 2Q13 results look like? MER thinks 2Q13 profit would be only around NOK50m, much below consensus estimate of NOK189m. 2Q13 EBITDA margin should be around 6.0% in MER’s view. Will it repeat it 3Q13/4Q13? No. But Vard will start including " start-up costs" from its new Promar yard (which will hire 400 people). Thus, margins will improve in 2H13 but still around 10% in MER’s view. So what does the full year margin and profit look like now for 2013? Including NOK140m of loss in these 4 vessels plus some startup costs in the new yard, MER thinks 2013 EBITDA margins will come around 8%, which means full year profit should come around NOK650m versus MER’s earlier estimate of NOK874m. Downside risk to 2014 numbers too? Given that Vard is booking all losses on these 4 vessels in 2Q13, and startup costs in new Brazil yard in 2H13, the downside risk to 2014 numbers would be minimal. However, to be conservative, and given that 3 out of these 4 vessel deliveries are due in 2014, it would be prudent to build some additional costs in MER’s view. What about other regions? The rest of the order book? Everything else is running fine. 90% of the order book is outside Brazil. This 10% order book in Brazil had legacy issues from the start itself when Vard acquired this yard along with the 5 vessel orders. The project was delayed from the start and could never be pulled back. MER’s action and recommendation MER has an Outperform recommendation on Vard Holdings and a 12-month price target of $1.82. However, MER’s estimates are under review. They think there is potential downside risk of approximately 25% to 2013’s earnings and approximately 15% to 2014’s earnings profit estimates. MER believes street downgrades will follow, to the tune of 15-25% each for 2013’s earnings and 2014’s earnings. Once estimates are cleaned up and the focus returns to the rest of the 90% of Vard's business which is functioning very well with a robust order book, MER thinks investors will return to the stock. For now, MER thinks investors will hold back until the clean up is done and management comments on the 2Q13 results conference call today. * For a full list of Macquarie’s warrants over Vard Holdings, you may wish to do a search athttp://www.warrants.com.sg/en/warrants/search_e.cgi | ||||||||||
Yay! Yay!
Guys, the 3 PLSV that CIMB mentioned is suppose to be awarded by SapuraKencana. FYI, the contract for 3 PLSV has been awarded to Dutch IHC.
However, overall outlook for offshore ship building is still bright with growing drilling activities.
Personally, I think price is still cheap at the 0.8+ range as the co is still profitable & bright outlook for OSV demand. Once the Brazil sites recover, it will contribute positively in FY14/15. For longer term, it is a good investment.
Vested with avg price at 0.89. Didnt manage to buy lower at 0.82 to avg down...
Good lucks :)