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things every retail investor/trader should know

Reading about the company's financial is important. You won't want to be trading in a stock and then it gets halted or delisted for financial problems.

 

i only read ARs (annual reports) for FA. i don't trust analysts reports: ARs are what give you the full figures and theoretically, the full disclosure. whereas analysts' reports will give you their interpretation of it: so trusting an analyst's report is like 2nd degree interpretation from the fact.

Have never seen the numbers from poems/etc, so am not sure? Sometimes it may be old numbers, is my guess. Alternatively, the analysts may have deducted off main sums etc to show 'actual holdings'.

best example of trusting only ARs and not tabulated financials/analysts reports: Ferrochina. Their Aug AR actually gave the debt figure already--which astute investors should have realised would drive the company into negative equity immediately.

hope this helps.

ojcurious      ( Date: 14-Nov-2008 09:05) Posted: Hi Elfin, Is it possible to give me some insights? I'm trying to pick up some FA skill but is really confused by the different numbers I get from the tabulated finanicals (eg from Poems/shareinvestors) and the company's actual finanical reports. Eg, in the company's finanical report, cashflow is negative but in the tabulated finanicals from others, it's positive... so, is some of the figures "re-calculated" or something like that? I have no accounting background and such... so when I try to compare the figures... I get really confused with the different numbers posted... Any other experts out there care to advise me on this? Many thanks in advance....

 

Pardon me if I sound far out...

In a dynamic place like the stock market, the less you bother and burden yourself with fundamentals, the better you can operate...

Stick to doing what that market is saying rather than bury your head in 'fundamentals'... hehehe...

 

Hi Elfin,

Is it possible to give me some insights? I'm trying to pick up some FA skill but is really confused by the different numbers I get from the tabulated finanicals (eg from Poems/shareinvestors) and the company's actual finanical reports. Eg, in the company's finanical report, cashflow is negative but in the tabulated finanicals from others, it's positive... so, is some of the figures "re-calculated" or something like that? I have no accounting background and such... so when I try to compare the figures... I get really confused with the different numbers posted...

Any other experts out there care to advise me on this?

Many thanks in advance....

 

 

DJIA beautifully up ~430 pts as we speak, on back of a 200 pip rise in the UJ. near perfect bounce off its support line, though dropped below for a spell no thanks to a statement by Soros (who is, of course, a vested party).

STI likely to gap up tomorrow.

still holding a call of consolidation mode for now. 1700 to 2000, with 1900 being a resistance. as per blog post on 11th nov alr. http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/11/sti-and-djia.html (for those who wish to see the tech evidence). note that we've bounced off ~1700 three times in the last 9 trading sessions. no matter what the DJIA gyrations were.

Again and again, it is about technicals, the trend. What does the trend say?

Always, make sure you see what is, and not what your fear/greed leads you to see.

same thing: for traders only. NOT for longterm investors yet. consolidation range => can go either way.

caveat applies.

 

married trades = X trades. same thing reflected in BUSD.

academics doesn't count in the market lah. look at economists. they always get it wrong. or as they themselves say, they're right, but only in the long, long run.

 

Hi Elfin,

is there a difference between cross and married trades?

i thought married trades were also broker intiated. eg broker A has client B and client C who happens to want to buy/sell the same stock/volume. they then perform a cross trade for simplicity. bids/ask quotes are not put to the market, it is a private deal

pls correct me if i'm wrong tks .

elfinchilde      ( Date: 12-Nov-2008 23:45) Posted: X deals are married trades. they occur when someone sews up the quotes--ie, buy up or sell down consecutive quotes. eg, if you have 100 lots of sembcorp to sell, and the buy Q (ppl queuing to buy) at that point in time shows: 2.50 ---50 lots 2.49---30 lots 2.48--50 lots. in order to sell your 100 lots at one shot, you need to sell down the queue: 50 lots @ 2.5, 30 @ 2.49, 20 @ 2.48. So your sell px would be the average of all that---ie, 100 lots @ 2.493. That would be reflected in time of sales (or BUSD) as 'X' --100 @ 2.493 (SGX gives to 3 dec place, i think). The alternative is dealer-agreed. eg, two houses can agree to exchange the stock with each other at a certain price--usually offered to institutional players--and that deal is reflected as X as well. so that's why sometimes you'll see funny numbers and X's over the place. it's an indication of ppl sewing up quotes, as market lingo goes. Final end of day closing tends to be large lots, because that's exchange-matched. 1705 hrs, very liable to BB action as they are given those additional minutes.   to know what the X deal is, you simply have to see the px before and after the X trade: if it's down, it means the X was a sell. if it's up, it means the X was a buy. hope this helps, cheers!

 

all the more impressive since u said u have no degree or 'proper qualification' some of the foreign houses like to hire only first class hons/ ivy league grads. but looking at their calls (on hindsight many inaccurate calls) makes one wonder the usefulness of academics in the stock market.

elfinchilde      ( Date: 04-Nov-2008 14:21) Posted: hmm... abt 10 years in the markets bah. or 7 years if you want to be legal. had some advantages though: started out with an internship in a foreign fund house; so literally sat beside them and saw them doing the trades etc. from there, you learn to relate it to the charts. helps that i have been interested in psychology for a long while. so you blend together: human patterns of behaviour, the charts, the reading of sentiment. FA is relatively new to me though: credit to shplayer and victorian for kindly teaching me in this aspect.   as for forex, i'm just a newbie there. only started out this year cos stocks didn't give enough margin of safety from abt jul (which was abt when i started doing forex). uphill learning process. the rest of it is just practice, really. i read ARs almost everyday (since i consider my FA to be weak). Even for things i'm not vested in. it's all part of training oneself. there's no shortcut to success. actually i'd say that i'm not yet happy with myself: i can still be better. so still a long journey to go. shd add here that i have no degree or 'proper certification'. the only experience i have is, literally, from the market itself. so those wanting to learn from me should note this point, since i understand that certs are very important to s'poreans: i'm not going to pretend to be some certified expert or whatever. i'm just an ordinary person who grew up on the market's streets. cheers!

 

yah. was wondering the same thing too....*gasp* my thread is spooked! heavens.

baseerahmed      ( Date: 12-Nov-2008 23:44) Posted: Admin : .. noticed that something is wrong with this thread ...although the last post is by Farmer at 15.27 ... this thread is now at the top at 23.42 .... noticed similar thing yesterday ... or is it my pc ?

 

X deals are married trades. they occur when someone sews up the quotes--ie, buy up or sell down consecutive quotes.

eg, if you have 100 lots of sembcorp to sell, and the buy Q (ppl queuing to buy) at that point in time shows:

2.50 ---50 lots

2.49---30 lots

2.48--50 lots.

in order to sell your 100 lots at one shot, you need to sell down the queue: 50 lots @ 2.5, 30 @ 2.49, 20 @ 2.48.

So your sell px would be the average of all that---ie, 100 lots @ 2.493.

That would be reflected in time of sales (or BUSD) as 'X' --100 @ 2.493 (SGX gives to 3 dec place, i think).

The alternative is dealer-agreed. eg, two houses can agree to exchange the stock with each other at a certain price--usually offered to institutional players--and that deal is reflected as X as well.

so that's why sometimes you'll see funny numbers and X's over the place. it's an indication of ppl sewing up quotes, as market lingo goes. Final end of day closing tends to be large lots, because that's exchange-matched. 1705 hrs, very liable to BB action as they are given those additional minutes.  

to know what the X deal is, you simply have to see the px before and after the X trade: if it's down, it means the X was a sell. if it's up, it means the X was a buy.

hope this helps, cheers!

 

Admin :

.. noticed that something is wrong with this thread ...although the last post is by Farmer at 15.27 ... this thread is now at the top at 23.42 .... noticed similar thing yesterday ... or is it my pc ?

 

3 Months Ended Sep 2008  
q-o-q plunges below -10%  
  
Company    % Change    Current Net Profit (S$M)
  
Allgreen   -10.90%  $31.19
Hwa Hong   -10.95%  $12.11
Oriental Century   -11.19%  $2.51
Hotel Prop   -12.00%  $13.37
See Hup Seng   -12.50%  $2.67
OCBC Bk   -13.17%  $402.00
Tsit Wing   -13.31%  $1.34
China Merchants (Pacific)   -14.40%  $13.57
Samudera   -14.74%  $8.18
IFS   -15.55%  $2.30
Midas   -15.83%  $8.01
HL Fin   -16.19%  $30.89
SBS Transit   -16.99%  $8.32
FibreChem   -18.53%  $22.19
Bright World   -19.00%  $7.24
Bonvests   -20.92%  $7.65
Interra Res   -20.96%  $0.92
MobileOne   -21.10%  $34.40
SP Chemicals   -21.90%  $9.24
Rotary   -22.22%  $9.67
Amara   -22.37%  $3.35
Haw Par Corp   -22.59%  $21.07
Dutech   -24.72%  $2.61
CapitaLand   -25.62%  $419.44
FrasersComm Trust   -27.31%  $8.08
China Lifestyle   -28.35%  $2.56
Gallant   -31.60%  $0.17
YHI Intl   -33.17%  $3.83
China Precision   -35.38%  $4.12
Federal Int   -36.01%  $1.11
DBS Grp   -37.87%  $379.00
Reyoung   -38.32%  $2.55
Nera Telecoms   -38.73%  $1.86
OKP Hldgs   -39.21%  $2.14
ZhguoPengjie   -39.92%  $1.59
Sing Inv & Fin   -42.95%  $2.14
Keppel Land   -43.58%  $46.17
Sky Petrol   -43.77%  $4.38
ChungHong   -43.84%  $1.10
Fuxing   -44.13%  $5.61
Chip Eng Seng   -46.15%  $11.37
Venture Corp   -47.42%  $40.13
Sarin Tech   -48.97%  $1.49
Full Apex   -51.66%  $4.73
Excelpoint   -52.38%  $0.13
Jadason   -53.37%  $2.09
Synear   -54.95%  $5.87
BBR Hldgs   -55.02%  $0.36
UMS   -55.37%  $0.91
CourageMar   -57.05%  $12.32
Lizhong   -59.41%  $2.15
Advanced Hldgs   -63.13%  $1.38
Kingboard   -64.38%  $5.73
GlobalTest   -68.16%  $1.75
Sunningdale Tech   -68.36%  $1.96
STATS ChipPAC   -71.71%  $11.26
Texchem-Pack   -72.09%  $0.29
UOB-Kay Hian   -72.13%  $19.65
United Engineers   -74.51%  $1.89
Multi-Chem   -76.68%  $1.37
NOL   -81.66%  $50.15
Memtech   -82.18%  $1.16
HL Asia   -85.20%  $3.74
Lee KimTah   -88.06%  $0.56
Kim Eng Hldgs   -92.90%  $2.23
Eucon   -93.50%  $0.51
IntRoller   -93.77%  $0.11
Hiap Hoe   -94.26%  $0.40
Tuan Sing   -94.40%  $0.81
Jurong Tech   -94.69%  $0.71
Parkway Hldgs   -95.47%  $10.17
InnoTek   -97.33%  $0.16
UIS   -97.59%  $0.14
Lafe Corp   -98.11%  $0.02
SPC   -99.37%  $0.62
C&G Ind    nm  $(0.12)
CNA Grp    nm  $(0.13)
Enviro-Hub    nm  $(0.17)
Maveric    nm  $(0.20)
Jurong Cement    nm  $(0.25)
CHT Hldgs    nm  $(0.36)
Europtronic    nm  $(0.57)
JiutianC    nm  $(0.67)
Hup Soon    nm  $(0.84)
Mirach Energy    nm  $(0.91)
HLH Grp    nm  $(1.14)
AsiaPower    nm  $(1.34)
Innovalues    nm  $(1.62)
Anwell    nm  $(1.89)
AEM    nm  $(2.04)
China Dairy    nm  $(2.55)
S Reinsurance    nm  $(2.68)
Thakral     nm  $(2.99)
Hotung    nm  $(3.01)
ChinaAElec   nm  $(3.01)
Plastoform    nm  $(3.17)
Sapphire    nm  $(3.30)
Ouhua     nm  $(6.38)
Osim    nm  $(6.99)
L-Jacob   nm  $(9.04)
Sino-Env    nm  $(9.76)
Delong    nm  $(11.88)
United Food    nm  $(12.36)
Chartered SemiCond    nm  $(38.41)
G.K. Goh     nm  $(42.04)
ChinaNTown    nm  $(97.67)

 

Hmm...Dark pools huh! I think it's like those X-X-X deals we've seen everyday in SGX, only thing is that its done in private not under the public eyes with intentions. It will be bad news for SGX if left unfiltered...lets kiv.

 

excerpt from my latest blog entry. will be of interest to any invested in the market currently:

longterm players may like to note the general increase in volume. Dark pools are here. Which is also why even though the economic front looks bad, the market moves differently. And this is why technicals rule.

tread cautiously.

to know more about dark pools:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_pools_of_liquidity

http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2007/07/06/Dark-Pools-Grow-Scrutiny-Does-Not

 

3 Months Ended Sep 2008      
q-o-q above 20%      
Company  % Change  Current  Net Profit (S$M) 
      
Allied Tech + 7722.22%   $3.52   
Hi-P Intl + 5354.49%   $25.53   
ShangTurbo + 1559.73%   $0.52   
CWT + 719.20%   $55.09   
Baker Tech + 673.61%   $8.50   
MCL Land + 500.54%   $18.97   
Oceanus + 410.46%   $33.17   
ChinaSsine + 405.62%   $9.41   
IPC Corp + 393.87%   $7.41   
*Wee Hur + 291.39%   $2.96   
YHS + 284.12%   $6.97   
Roxy-Pacific + 239.31%   $8.70   
Soilbuild + 235.75%   $15.35   
K-Reit + 180.74%   $15.19   
Hyflux + 159.48%   $17.33   
PLife REIT + 153.87%   $10.31   
ARA Asset Mgt + 147.78%   $9.09   
GMG Global + 145.79%   $19.48   
Noble Grp + 145.31%   $212.45   
Spore Comp Sys + 118.82%   $4.72   
FirstRes + 116.97%   $30.44   
Yangzijiang + 111.49%   $99.33   
Orchard Parade + 93.99%   $14.73   
NSL + 87.08%   $25.77   
Furama + 86.11%   $9.49   
SembCorp Marine + 73.18%   $140.89   
SunVic + 69.57%   $5.61   
Engro Corp + 68.84%   $4.57   
SP Corp + 64.43%   $0.49   
AsiaEntH + 52.97%   $8.16   
Sihuan + 52.94%   $13.90   
CapitaRChina Trust + 52.59%   $12.45   
Elec & Eltek + 51.92%   $17.47   
Pan United + 51.87%   $12.46   
Beng Kuang + 51.26%   $1.51   
PSCCorp + 51.23%   $3.20   
Capitacommercial Trust + 46.05%   $43.17   
MAP Tech + 44.88%   $5.57   
FSL Trust + 36.90%   $21.80   
Jardine C&C + 35.72%   $219.20   
Cambridge Ind Trust + 35.49%   $11.87   
Pharmesis + 34.65%   $0.03   
Total Access + 34.60%   $77.01   
Adv Integrated + 33.57%   $1.34   
Mapletree Log + 33.07%   $25.43   
Shanghai Asia + 32.06%   $4.84   
Riverstone + 31.84%   $3.01   
Ascott REIT + 31.79%   $15.86   
China Fibretech + 30.99%   $7.65   
CDL H Trust + 29.72%   $24.41   
Raffles Med + 25.01%   $8.19   
Semb Corp Ind + 24.79%   $144.93   
ECS Hldgs + 22.84%   $7.60   
China XLX + 21.43%   $20.19   
Qian Hu + 20.90%   $1.53   

 

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an excellent piece ... a must read 

http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/11/mindsets-and-mentality.html

 

http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/11/mindsets-and-mentality.html

ahead of the trading week, a pause to consider the daises that grow between the pavement cracks.

 

hullo cashiertan, great to see you here. :)

misread your meaning? i may have missed your post, i was responding to richtan/the rest asking abt CD/XD plays.  but yea, personally, i prefer stop loss to DCA.

and agree with the rest of what you said too. personally, i find forex better than stocks currently cos of the risk/reward ratio (tho forex is NOT for everyone pls, can be easy to lose money too if you don't know how to play it rightly). and yah, affected: cos the CBs have been intervening in the money markets. the japanese have a support for UJ at 92. completely concur with not taking positions at times too. no need to trade all the time anyway.

one minor disagreeement though: TA rarely fails; usually if there's a failure, it tends to be more of human error than TA error. ya know, itchy fingers.

cheers!

 

hi elf, 

i guess u misread my meaning. I said DCA on the way up never DCA on the way down.. nevertheless, i never encourage DCA down to anyone. it is the fastest way to lose money.

in this kind of market, the easiest way to make money will be the forex market where liquidity is not as affected. however i sense that even it may be affected somehow. well still can trust the good old TA rather than news. also, if TA dun works due to turmoil, i can also stop trading till norm are back. afterall no trading is also taking a position as a trader

elfinchilde      ( Date: 04-Nov-2008 13:55) Posted: hi richtan, DCA = dollar cost average/averaging. it's a method of putting in your funds in separate portions into the market, so you can average up or down your buy price. a lot of insurance planners and financial advisors will tell you to do this: put aside a fixed sum of money monthly, and go in no matter what the market is, so that over the years, your cost price is low. To me, that's right principle, wrong application. eg, imagine if you DCA cosco from its peak monthly from 8.2 to now. the only thing you'd be facing is a certain scenario known as *moths fly out of wallet*.   For one thing, DCA is mainly for longterm investors (think 5 year horizon or more). For another, you really need to choose your counters well. For a third, it isn't just blindly putting in your money every month: the proper way to DCA is via technicals. Those wanting to apply it on CD/XD plays need to be careful too: i have to stress here that not all counters will go back up to their CD levels. Some just fade away. cheers!